Can we make the 8 in 2023?

[Dockeroo]

A finish of 10th or higher would really take the sting out of the Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

trade price too and avoid jibes and media crap about how we handed over highly valuable picks for him. It would mean Melbournes pick this year with our R1 selection would fall to at least pick 10 on draft night (after Jed Walter is bid on) and could easily be pick 11 if Ben Mckay

32

Ben Mckay

Age

26

Ht

202cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.5

2star

K

3.7

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.7

4star

MG

77.2

1star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

2star

MG

88.5

2star

D

7.0

2star

K

3.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

67.8

1star

leaves north on a monster deal. Darcy parish

3

Darcy Parish

Age

27

Ht

180cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.4

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

3.3

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

9.1

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

3star

CL

3.1

4star

D

22.2

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

14.6

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

leaving Essendon and us finishing ahead of the would push it back another spot too. the second rounder would go well past pick 30 too.

Paying pick 15, pick 12 and pick 32 for Jackson and Max Knobel is fine by me.

 

[Bigger]

Beating a tanking Hawthorn and a busted-up Swans isn't great - but we played well. You don't just get handed the 4 points.

What I am saying is you still need to play well to beat poor sides - the proof being seen in the reverse; that we played North, did not play well and were beaten.

We are improving and a lot of what you pick up in victories can't be taught and can't be manufactured on the track. Confidence. Form. Connection.

To answer the question though, we will not make the 8. There is too much of a logjam and we trod too heavily all over our dicks in the first 6 or so rounds. But I reckon 9th would be good, just so Melbourne don't make out like complete bandits and we scare a few sides. We also then don't mugged in the fixturing for next season.

And if you are going to have a reversion to the mean kind of year, 9th is about as middle of the road as you can get.

 

[Joose]

We are a mathematical chance which is better than no chance.

The next two games leading up to the bye will make or break our season. If we are 5 and 6 at the bye then it is achievable. 4 and 7 forget it.

Cannot see us winning the Melbourne game.

 

[Channels]

We will be making finals off the back of another win over the Dees at the G

Who's taking responsibility for knocking out Steven May this year?

 

[Fred Ziffel]

We will win the next two games ; Geelong and Melbourne.

 

[EastcoastDocker]

About the same chance as Samwell Tarly 'making the 8' in GoT

 

[mattis117]

A finish of 10th or higher would really take the sting out of the Luke Jackson trade price too and avoid jibes and media crap about how we handed over highly valuable picks for him. It would mean Melbournes pick this year with our R1 selection would fall to at least pick 10 on draft night (after Jed Walter is bid on) and could easily be pick 11 if Ben Mckay leaves north on a monster deal. Darcy parish leaving Essendon and us finishing ahead of the would push it back another spot too. the second rounder would go well past pick 30 too.

Paying pick 15, pick 12 and pick 32 for Jackson and Max Knobel is fine by me.

Or we can consider it a sunk cost and not give a rats what other people say about it...

 

[Docker82]

Our main focus should be 2024.

The Jackson trade is done. Whatever it ends up being won't impact us long term.

IMO winning more games this year is good for 2024 but it shouldn't get in the way of development. If we're unable to make the eight by round 16/17 put in players for surgery that otherwise wouldn't be fully fit for day one of pre season.

To actually answer the question (sort of), ask me after the Geelong game. We're playing better but the opposition could both be bottom six at year's end.

 

[Wilksyy]

No we’re too young

 

[Dockeroo]

Or we can consider it a sunk cost and not give a rats what other people say about it...

I personally don’t care about the cost but I think it takes the pressure off the player a little bit, into the future if the picks are not as high. Also I don’t want to be reading how we traded away Luke hodge and Sam Mitchell equivalents like 2001 for next 2 decades.

 

[Freofalcon]

No

The Saints and Norf games are going to bite us in the bum.

 

[oldgoat]

There really is only one answer to your question - yes we can, anyone who has said otherwise is wrong . You probably should have asked will we make the 8 in 2023?

To answer the question you should have asked - if we continue to improve to the point where we're playing the football of a top four team, then winning the premiership again becomes a possibility. I can imagine a future where we:

1. Continue with our fortunate run with injury;
2. Continue to see improvement in chemistry across all lines, particularly the forward line;
3. New players (Jackson and O'Meara) fully integrate into the group and deliver their best football;
4. Nathan Fyfe hits peak form playing as a mid; and
5. Our young players mature across the season.

People get very caught up in trying to predict the future based on the past, but as a superannuation company would say - past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. We may improve our performance to a level that can compete with the top 4 and under such a scenario we could go deep into finals.

Conversely, none of the above may happen. Fyfe could get reinjured, we could lose our mojo for some reason, who knows. What's great about Freo's 2023 season right now is we still have the full range of possibilities in front of us, except finishing bottom 4, which we've almost already ruled out with 4 wins.

Can vs Will...

We can still make top 4.

Wouldnt that lift the lid?

Yokai!

 

[Freomaniac]

We could but we won't. We are 10-12 bound IMO. I think we win ~10 games.

15th is worst case and I think 7th is best case.

Left ourselves too much to do with a terrible start. If the bottom falls out of Geelong starting this week, that will help since we have them twice but I don't think they are going that poorly.

right until before the hawks game, I really feared we were gonna have a 4 or 5 win season.

when we beat the hawks, We had 3 wins and 5 losses. I wouldnt of cared had we got 16th with 6 or 7 wins. I just didnt want to hand the demons pick 1. The amount of verbal aouse this club would of got would of pushed some people over the edge and quit supporting the club.


We are always gonna be on the back foot after going 0-2 vs the saints and north.

Saying that....

I wont be upset if we lose to Geelong coming up. If we win both thats 5-5 and season is still alive. But say if we lose .... thats 4 and 6 and likely season over. I dont see us Beating the demons in round 11. So thats 4 wins and 7 losses.

But then we got a bye in round 12 I think.

The next games are.....

-Tigers in round 13 : likely win

-GWS away in round 14: we could win, but I tip a narrow loss.

-Essendon in round 15: likely loss

-Dogs in docklands in round 16: loss

-Carlton in round 17: Hoping for a win


On current form, We are good enough to beat tigers and blues at home. and I predict to lose to essendon and both away games. so thats 6 wins and 10 losses.


Then you got rounds 18 to 24.

Round 18 Magpies in MCG: likely loss

Round 19 swans in Perth: if current form is a guide then Freo wins this by 3-5 goals

Round 20: Cats in Geelong. Cats will hit form by this time: loss.

Round 21: Brisbane in Perth, Brisbane are desperate for finals: loss.

Round 22: Eagles away: likely win

Round 23: Port in Perth: depends, Port hasnt beaten us in Perth stadium. But I think it will be a narrow loss.

round 24 : hawks in MCG: hawks are tanking so a win.



SO season is done.... 9 wins and 14 losses or 10 wins and 13 losses if either Dockers gets up on Brisbane or Port.

 

[heypenny]

If the club is bullish on Treacy long term, then I'll accept finishing lower to prioritise playing the 3 'KPFs' together all year for the benefit of next year and beyond. Also applies to Ras and Johnno.

Aside from being bitter as **** about the draft pick, I don't see the difference to us of 9th versus 15th and an extra 10 games into long term players is far more valuable to us.

In fact, having a bottom 6 draw next year could be gravy as well so lets aim for 13th.

Agree with the first part. The poor start to the year (and almost being out of finals contention early) may be a blessing in disguise as we're now starting to pump games into Johnson, Erasmus, Treacy and Amiss. Only Treacy lined up in round 1 and was out the following week against the Kangas.

It would be great to keep winning but it's also nice to keep an eye on development and build the cohesion amongst the young group. Although the Jackson trade stings if it ends up a top 6 pick, it should be out of our minds. What's done is done.

 

[DocT]

right until before the hawks game, I really feared we were gonna have a 4 or 5 win season.

when we beat the hawks, We had 3 wins and 5 losses. I wouldnt of cared had we got 16th with 6 or 7 wins. I just didnt want to hand the demons pick 1. The amount of verbal aouse this club would of got would of pushed some people over the edge and quit supporting the club.


We are always gonna be on the back foot after going 0-2 vs the saints and north.

Saying that....

I wont be upset if we lose to Geelong coming up. If we win both thats 5-5 and season is still alive. But say if we lose .... thats 4 and 6 and likely season over. I dont see us Beating the demons in round 11. So thats 4 wins and 7 losses.

But then we got a bye in round 12 I think.

The next games are.....

-Tigers in round 13 : likely win

-GWS away in round 14: we could win, but I tip a narrow loss.

-Essendon in round 15: likely loss

-Dogs in docklands in round 16: loss

-Carlton in round 17: Hoping for a win


On current form, We are good enough to beat tigers and blues at home. and I predict to lose to essendon and both away games. so thats 6 wins and 10 losses.


Then you got rounds 18 to 24.

Round 18 Magpies in MCG: likely loss

Round 19 swans in Perth: if current form is a guide then Freo wins this by 3-5 goals

Round 20: Cats in Geelong. Cats will hit form by this time: loss.

Round 21: Brisbane in Perth, Brisbane are desperate for finals: loss.

Round 22: Eagles away: likely win

Round 23: Port in Perth: depends, Port hasnt beaten us in Perth stadium. But I think it will be a narrow loss.

round 24 : hawks in MCG: hawks are tanking so a win.



SO season is done.... 9 wins and 14 losses or 10 wins and 13 losses if either Dockers gets up on Brisbane or Port.

Thx for the detail and I agree except you seem to be very pessimistic about our chances vs GWS and Essendon. I would have thought at this stage we would go into those games as favourites.

 

[DocT]

We will win the next two games ; Geelong and Melbourne.

Ur too pessimistic. We win the next 17 before our 2024 Premiership hangover year when we only win 25.

 

[Okinakashi]

Melbourne is a winnable game. They've beaten all of the current bottom 6 and WB.

Definitely a favourable draw for them so far.

 

[Kram]

Beat Geelong and I might start to entertain the possibility.

 

[Purple Jesus]

I think we can and should beat both, but can and should isn't necessarily reality. Also I'm not longer in the country sooooooooo...

 

[Perfect Purple]

We will win the next two games ; Geelong and Melbourne.

I like the way you think Fred.

There’s only one direction that we are going now and that’s up.

 

[Boppo]

If we did scrape in we'd be in some form.

 

[Righteo]

Would need to win this week then harness the spirit of that 2006 run. I'm expecting this to be a short-lived thread and for everyone to fall back to earth after Saturday but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[poshman]

Would need to win this week then harness the spirit of that 2006 run. I'm expecting this to be a short-lived thread and for everyone to fall back to earth after Saturday but hopefully I'm wrong.

We definitely can't afford to start slowly again.

I don't think we will beat Melbourne and while I have some hope this week, I will tip Geelong.

North loss hurt big time.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

right until before the hawks game, I really feared we were gonna have a 4 or 5 win season.

when we beat the hawks, We had 3 wins and 5 losses. I wouldnt of cared had we got 16th with 6 or 7 wins. I just didnt want to hand the demons pick 1. The amount of verbal aouse this club would of got would of pushed some people over the edge and quit supporting the club.


We are always gonna be on the back foot after going 0-2 vs the saints and north.

Saying that....

I wont be upset if we lose to Geelong coming up. If we win both thats 5-5 and season is still alive. But say if we lose .... thats 4 and 6 and likely season over. I dont see us Beating the demons in round 11. So thats 4 wins and 7 losses.

But then we got a bye in round 12 I think.

The next games are.....

-Tigers in round 13 : likely win

-GWS away in round 14: we could win, but I tip a narrow loss.

-Essendon in round 15: likely loss

-Dogs in docklands in round 16: loss

-Carlton in round 17: Hoping for a win


On current form, We are good enough to beat tigers and blues at home. and I predict to lose to essendon and both away games. so thats 6 wins and 10 losses.


Then you got rounds 18 to 24.

Round 18 Magpies in MCG: likely loss

Round 19 swans in Perth: if current form is a guide then Freo wins this by 3-5 goals

Round 20: Cats in Geelong. Cats will hit form by this time: loss.

Round 21: Brisbane in Perth, Brisbane are desperate for finals: loss.

Round 22: Eagles away: likely win

Round 23: Port in Perth: depends, Port hasnt beaten us in Perth stadium. But I think it will be a narrow loss.

round 24 : hawks in MCG: hawks are tanking so a win.



SO season is done.... 9 wins and 14 losses or 10 wins and 13 losses if either Dockers gets up on Brisbane or Port.

I’ve been low this season but at no stage have I considered a home game vs Essendon to be a likely loss.

 

[poshman]

I’ve been low this season but at no stage have I considered a home game vs Essendon to be a likely loss.

Yeah I think we should beat them here. I don't think we are in better form than they are but we should win that one here.