Tell me why we shouldn't be expecting to make Top 4 this year

[Piggy Smalls]

Freo could win the premiership this season

100% We might have to start planning a GF party at this rate.

 

[oldgoat]

Freo could win the premiership this season

Yeah...I already said that
Pollyanna
No odds on favourite.
Eight? chancers.

 

[pK75]

Yeah...I already said that
Pollyanna
No odds on favourite.
Eight? chancers.

As someone posted in another thread, 23 of the last 24 premiers have finished top 4, the only outlier is the dogs who got gifted their premiership by the umps in both the prelim and the GF.
Anyway point is, finish top 4 and we’re a 1:4 chance of winning the premiership this year.

 

[Vintage]

This sort of argument goes both ways. There is no way we are getting 500 games of quality out of the combination of Fyfe or Sonny atm and if you replace them with some 25yo 80 game B graders (their rough output level) from another club suddenly we're bottom 3 for age and experience.

Almost all (haven't checked all of them) premiership sides are noticeably older and more experienced than us. The only outliers I am aware of are the 2016 Dogs (both age and experience), 2008 Hawks (who had the experience but not the age) and the 2021 Dees who are right on the cusp of both (like 24y 10m and 99 games)

So it doesn't seem to matter where the spread is, the mean tells you what you need to know. Over 25 (most over 26), and over 100 games. I think the experience matters more. I also note that the Dogs finished 7th and we may never see a run like that again in our lives. Especially with blokes like Boyd playing out of his skin and then falling off a cliff.

You do see young top 4 sides regularly, but they are the minority. Most are old and experienced. This is easy to check, 8/8 of the most recent PF sides were over 25 and all but 1 (Blues at 98 last year) were over 100 games. I think the 2021 Dees are on the only recent counter.

This thread was only about expectations. A justified expectation strictly means it is more likely than unlikely, and there is no way you can argue it with the historical data. If you're expecting something that is unlikely, you're a fool. I don't think there was anyway you could argue that you were justified in expecting top 4 from us this year without some purple-tinted glasses.


If we actually finish top 4, then expectations are irrelevant and fingers crossed we're the next Dogs.

As you go into the detail more, it also matter where the youth and inexperience is - midfielders in their early 20s are generally much more likely to be playing at the top level than key forwards, defenders or rucks.

From memory Melbourne in 2021 had mature talls with most of the youth among the smalls. (Jackson aside)

 

[Joao]

As you go into the detail more, it also matter where the youth and inexperience is - midfielders in their early 20s are generally much more likely to be playing at the top level than key forwards, defenders or rucks.

From memory Melbourne in 2021 had mature talls with most of the youth among the smalls. (Jackson aside)

Yep, big time. Our KPFs are babies but our mids are already elite or close to it. That's not to say they can't improve though.

 

[pK75]

Yep, big time. Our KPFs are babies but our mids are already elite or close to it. That's not to say they can't improve though.

Feels like Serong has been good for ages, but he’s still only 23 and already has 3 derby medals

 

[Jezzitizle]

Feels like Serong has been good for ages, but he’s still only 23 and already has 3 derby medals

Really keen to see how he goes in September, he and Brayshaw love the big games.

 

[Grape Bear]

Really keen to see how he goes in September, he and Brayshaw love the big games.

It’s Young and Johnson I’m most excited about in terms of potential growth and physicality, will really help with balance and keep us from being monstered and bullied. We held our own last night, but there was still a pretty big discrepancy in size compared to the wiggles mature bodies. Fyfe and JOM helps balance that out a bit.

 

[PurpleEyes]

We can still finish anywhere from 1st to 12th depending on who wins what in the remaining 4 rounds.

The last team to win a premiership with less than 13 players in the team who had played at least 50 games for that club was 1997 (Adelaide). This is Freo's first season since our rebuild years (of 2016) in which we now regularly have 13+ players each week.
It shows that we currently have good team cohesion with few injuries and inform players who have at least a few seasons of playing together.

 

[ubiquitous226]

We can still finish anywhere from 1st to 12th depending on who wins what in the remaining 4 rounds.

The last team to win a premiership with less than 13 players in the team who had played at least 50 games for that club was 1997 (Adelaide). This is Freo's first season since our rebuild years (of 2016) in which we now regularly have 13+ players each week.
It shows that we currently have good team cohesion with few injuries and inform players who have at least a few seasons of playing together.

The time playing together to create cohesion, and a relatively healthy best 22 is a really big factor.

I get all the comments that we're still young and building, we haven't quite got the mature core to be confident.
Equally we're absolutely in with a crack this year and we should be going hell for leather to try and get there.

 

[Joao]

We can still finish anywhere from 1st to 12th depending on who wins what in the remaining 4 rounds.

The last team to win a premiership with less than 13 players in the team who had played at least 50 games for that club was 1997 (Adelaide). This is Freo's first season since our rebuild years (of 2016) in which we now regularly have 13+ players each week.
It shows that we currently have good team cohesion with few injuries and inform players who have at least a few seasons of playing together.

Read my mind. I was only thinking about this and was going to ask you where we sat.

 

[Purpletown]

I think we are right in it at the pointy end of the season, exciting stuff.

If Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

can get some decent form going our odds will increase by a heap, without him firing we might struggle.

 

[Joao]

I think we are right in it at the pointy end of the season, exciting stuff.

If Luke Jackson can get some decent form going our odds will increase by a heap, without him firing we might struggle.

Yeah we've had nothing out of him in the 2nd half of the year.

 

[rgauci]

Yeah we've had nothing out of him in the 2nd half of the year.

Wait til it dries up, he doesn’t have the sticky hands like Treacy in the wet, very few do. Once it dries he’ll start clunking a bunch of balls. He gets his hands to so many.

 

[Midnite65]

Key will be if Pearce can come good for finals as he is critical to our back line structure against the best teams.

 

[Joao]

Key will be if Pearce can come good for finals as he is critical to our back line structure against the best teams.

Especially the Dogs if we have to play them. Carlton too.

 

[Lach72]

Especially the Dogs if we have to play them. Carlton too.

Thought Kings analysis of the bulldogs v Sydney was quite good this week.

Bulldogs completely took away the centre corridor with a box formation.

Reminded me of the way the hawks played us in Tassie.

So I don’t think Pearce is critical per se…more how we go against that defensive set up

 

[DragoDelph]

Yeah, Jackson been out of form for a bit, and we still look bloody good.

He only needs to turn it on for a few weeks.

 

[mattis117]

I think finishing fourth is preferable to finishing 3rd at this stage. Would be better to get Sydney than Brisbane, win the away qualifier and get the home prelim. We need the dogs playing Brisbane in the Prelim, which would happen in the above if they finished fifth and Sydney went out in straight sets.

 

[PurpleEyes]

Read my mind. I was only thinking about this and was going to ask you where we sat.

So far in 2024, we have averaged 13.4 players per game with 50+ club games for Freo.
We have had a minimum of 12 and maximum of 16.

Previous recent seasons;
2023: avg: 12.1 min:11 to max:14
2022: 11.9, 7-17
2021: 9.7, 7-12

 

[Midnite65]

Thought Kings analysis of the bulldogs v Sydney was quite good this week.

Bulldogs completely took away the centre corridor with a box formation.

Reminded me of the way the hawks played us in Tassie.

So I don’t think Pearce is critical per se…more how we go against that defensive set up

Bulldogs and Blues tall forwards are much better than the Swans so we need Pearce if we meet either of those two.

 

[DeadEyeJye]

Wait til it dries up, he doesn’t have the sticky hands like Treacy in the wet, very few do. Once it dries he’ll start clunking a bunch of balls. He gets his hands to so many.

He never seems to take a mark on the first grab, no matter the weather, especially in contested situations.

 

[Sturty2Hurty]

Hope to be wrong but I feel like we have the sort of team that gets blown away in their first GF appearance. Reckon we’ll need two cracks at it.

 

[BStaff17]

Hope to be wrong but I feel like we have the sort of team that gets blown away in their first GF appearance. Reckon we’ll need two cracks at it.

You may only get 1 crack at it

No guarantees you ever get back there.

Hawthorn in 2008 probably weren't ready but ambushed the cats.

We're the Dogs ready in 2016 I don't think so.

if we get there just need to win it.

The clock is ticking on Fyfe and Walters to be premiership players. Some may think this is there last chance if they decline deep into next year.

 

[FreoGirl]

You may only get 1 crack at it

No guarantees you ever get back there.

Hawthorn in 2008 probably weren't ready but ambushed the cats.

We're the Dogs ready in 2016 I don't think so.

if we get there just need to win it.

The clock is ticking on Fyfe and Walters to be premiership players. Some may think this is there last chance if they decline deep into next year.

I think Fyfe is playing out of his skin to make this a reality