Prediction 2025 - Best 23 + Emergencies - Rolling

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While all sides can improve defensive intent, our numbers were reasonable

6th for tackles
3rd for I50 tackles
7th for pressure
6th for defensive pressure acts

Interestingly, for the same metrics, Lions recorded

17th
7th
17th
18th

In the modern game, I believe it's still what you do, when you have the pill

Scores from turnovers, Swans and Lions were both top 2, we were 4th

We also lead the league for goals per inside 50

We aren't that far away
That’s where we’d like to see overall skills improvement to hit our targets along with some composure (+ stop leaking at stoppages) and we’re away..🤞
 
That’s where we’d like to see overall skills improvement to hit our targets along with some composure (+ stop leaking at stoppages) and we’re away..🤞
Good luck waiting for that to happen - Carlton doesn't have anywhere near the kicking skill between the arcs required to play that kind of game.
 

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Interesting looking at our leading goal scorers and goal assists along with games played this year:

1. Charlie (21 games ): 57 + 15,
2. Harry (21): 49 + 6
3. Owies (23): 33 + 15
4. Fogarty (15): 9 + 21
5. Elijah (22): 17 + 10
6. Cripps (24): 17 + 13
7. Williams (19): 15 + 12
8. Kennedy (24): 16 + 8
9. Kemp (3 as fwd): 6 + 3
10. Motlop (7): 6 + 3
11. Durdin (14): 7 + 3
12. Moir (2): 2 + 0

Owies and Kennedy provided 49 goals and 23 assists between them. Their loss will need to be picked up by others, who is going to step up?

Fogarty only played 15 games and generated/contributed to 30 goals which is a fair effort.

Elijah and Williams played most of the year and contributed to 27 goals, less than 1.5 score involvements per game - both will need to pull the finger out and do a lot more next year.

I think Motlop and Kemp are the most likely to succeed - a good preseason and run of games from Motlop and Kemp’s attributes and experience will see them both step up. Moir will get games but is still developing. I’m not convinced Durdin will make it as a small forward.

Jagga on the half forward line could provide some goal scoring opportunities particularly from stoppages. His extraction, distribution and evasive skills are something our small forwards have lacked in the past.
 
Interesting looking at our leading goal scorers and goal assists along with games played this year:

1. Charlie (21 games ): 57 + 15,
2. Harry (21): 49 + 6
3. Owies (23): 33 + 15
4. Fogarty (15): 9 + 21
5. Elijah (22): 17 + 10
6. Cripps (24): 17 + 13
7. Williams (19): 15 + 12
8. Kennedy (24): 16 + 8
9. Kemp (3 as fwd): 6 + 3
10. Motlop (7): 6 + 3
11. Durdin (14): 7 + 3
12. Moir (2): 2 + 0

Owies and Kennedy provided 49 goals and 23 assists between them. Their loss will need to be picked up by others, who is going to step up?

Fogarty only played 15 games and generated/contributed to 30 goals which is a fair effort.

Elijah and Williams played most of the year and contributed to 27 goals, less than 1.5 score involvements per game - both will need to pull the finger out and do a lot more next year.

I think Motlop and Kemp are the most likely to succeed - a good preseason and run of games from Motlop and Kemp’s attributes and experience will see them both step up. Moir will get games but is still developing. I’m not convinced Durdin will make it as a small forward.

Jagga on the half forward line could provide some goal scoring opportunities particularly from stoppages. His extraction, distribution and evasive skills are something our small forwards have lacked in the past.
In fairness to Williams he played the first half a season in defence.

His first 8 games 0 goals 2 assists.

His last 11 games 15 goals 10 assists

Extrapolate that out to a 22 game season and you got 30 goals 20 assists. Thats top shelf.
 
Hence the query by a few on our missing skills training &/or coaches to address this..
I dont think there are a lot of between the arcs players that have it in them to improve- tbh. cripsp has improved from hopeless to ok sometimes. Walsh has never been a good kick and probably never will be Hewett is ok at shorter distances - sometimes, Cerra is the pcik of that bunch and he is average - but at least put ome thought into it. Acres? Cottrell?

Mids have to be able to execute elite kicks under pressure - much harder than defenders who usually have more time and space or forwards who have goals to look for as an excuse.

Carlton right now is a contested and runnign team much more than kicking - it is what it is because of who is there...Charlie is teh best field kick in the team and he is our full forward - why I believe he should play CHF in more space...but that is another story.
 
In fairness to Williams he played the first half a season in defence.

His first 8 games 0 goals 2 assists.

His last 11 games 15 goals 10 assists

Extrapolate that out to a 22 game season and you got 30 goals 20 assists. Thats top shelf.
Good pick up mm3. Forgot his first 8 games were in defence.

That extrapolation puts him in the Owies level of output.
 
Forward line very much is

X McKay X
X Curnow X
X

But hopefully that will change.

You fill the rest in with Fantasia, Cottrell, Fogarty, Williams, Motlop, Moir, Kemp, Durdin, E Hollands and possibly Smith and Silvagni.

Kemp IMO is a given for third tall. Was super impressive in the last few games playing key forward. He's the modern day 3rd tall because of his mobility and running ability. 3rd tall used to be a ruckman type, now because of the need for speed they are more Kemp's size. Kemp can play deep, the classic third tall role or he could use his massive running capacity and play the Cottrell role at half forward except he'll get the ball. I see him playing CHF a bit with the two keys deep. So he allows them more freedom. He also takes the crowd of defenders away from our main targets or opposition teams risk giving Kemp a one on one. I really like his inclusion. I really like that we will have talls forward when our ruck rests.

I think Moir has to be in this side. The main thing this team lacks is genuine forward IQ. We have a lot of guys in there who just run and get lost. You don't have to do a heap of running if you're smart enough. He is. He also has the overhead and ground level game. So important in today's footy. We have seen both Brisbane and Collingwood win flags in recent times with a wealth of smaller forwards who are super good overhead and on the ground. An injury free preseason and he is in. Loved his intent to run down opposition players but also the talent to mark overhead and kick goals at ground level.

Williams is an interesting one. He had a few good games as a forward. The thing about him is that he is a natural footballer and a good quality footballer. Put him anywhere and he is going to play well. Coming back from a knee last year was not ideal but he got himself fit. Should be better off this year. He showed he has some natural ability as a forward but he never really played the half forward role I really wanted to see him play. I think he will this coming season. His crumbing game looked good, he has some natural instinct there. A lot of the good small forwards are strong overhead and read the game so exceptionally well. It will be interesting to see how he progresses in these areas as I feel to have a real impact, these are what he has to improve on.

Motlop is the one we have high hopes for but again there are a few holes in his game as a small forward. His fitness, repeat efforts and his overhead game to me need to improve as does his defensive efforts. A strong preseason is the key here.

Durdin is another in the same boat as Motlop. 2022 he was good. Strong overhead game, quick, tough, kicked goals, laid tackles. He's since lost it all. Get those back and he will be really handy.

E Hollands was ok last season. I feel he is more of a developing midfielder. As a forward I want to see him doing more in the air. I would like more pace from him as well but again, I think he is more of a midfielder. What he offers is a change on the ball and on a wing for us.

Cottrell is handy depth. He's a forward only but perhaps experimenting with him in defence is the go. No footy IQ is the issue with him.

Fogarty is also handy depth. Has some footy IQ but his skills let him down. Kicking for goal is woeful although slightly improved and lacks a little pace. Also lacks an overhead game. His effort and mobility make him handy but as a forward his skill level is more that of a part time forward than a full time forward.

Fantasia is another who has some talents but is limited. No overhead game and isn't good when the game is physical and contested. So 50% of the time he is out of the contest. The other parts he's hoping to get into space and for things to go his way. He's depth.

Smith I believe can go forward. I am not sure at all where he will play but if he can contribute forward and go into the midfield at times then this is valuable. Really high footy IQ and talent so I can see him impacting forward. Particularly in the half forward plus 1 role playing up around the midfield.

Silvagni playing back this season seems on the cards but expect him to come in for injured forwards.

McKay Curnow Moir
Williams Kemp Smith/Durdin/Motlop
E Hollands

I can see this being our forward line for the first game. Durdin or Motlop could easily make their way into the side. Perhaps Smith plays elsewhere and they fit in on a flank.

What I want to see in 2025 if McKay in the ruck more often. One, because when he goes in there he gets involved in the game more, performs as a forward better and as a ruck, he's blood good. I love how he grabs it out of the ruck, he's got ruck x factor. I also want to see DeKoning spending a little time forward and less time in the ruck, preserving him more.

More players with a strong overhead game, some more speed and more footy IQ is going to see us kick more goals and move the ball a lot better. Having more options to go to forward of the ball when we are on the move.

I think we will go hard at smaller forwards recruitment wise. In the meantime we need to make what we have work.
 

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Prediction 2025 - Best 23 + Emergencies - Rolling

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