List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[Gethelred]

I don't think the top 10 picks will be devalued, but everything from pick 10 on. Like no draft before, this one will be relying on 2 year old formlines and recent stats on growth and athleticism.

There's genuinely a chance to get kids at 25+ who'd go between 10 and 15 because they've grown, put on muscle and size and power, and failed to get the opportunity to bolt. There's kids who had huge fitness problems who, once within an AFL environment, will become endurance machines and thus top level midfielders.

The thing is and the difference will be that drafting over the last 2-5 years has been refined towards identifying two things: AFL readiness (criteria A) and talent ceiling (criteria B). Players that go in the first round generally trend toward having good results in both categories, and taper off in AFL readiness before talent ceiling. With this draft, all players will be less ready, so the draft itself becomes way more of a crapshoot. What it'll depend on is how good our talent watchers are at identifying AFL ability/attributes, and whether we can see anything we want in this draft.

I really like the idea of trading away our first and looking a bit deeper for some quality. There's a terrific opportunity to pluck blokes who really should've gone sooner this year.

 

[BigBreakfast]

We already have our x factor player, he wears number 30

Haven't seen him this season? We need more speed and footskills. Nuf said.

 

[TerryWallet]

Two words: Tom Bell.

Now it's on the kid to reach a far better ceiling.

Tom Bell had the dumbest football brain i've seen in a long time. Also the narrowest of tunnel vision. He was terrible.

Honey does have Bell physical traits and athleticism although not quite as big. By Dog i hope he has a better footy brain. I'm pretty sure it's impossible not to. From the little we've seen so far he seems fine.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Still makes no sense to me. If recruiters have a strong idea of who the best players are, why would top 10 picks be devalued?

Because there's greater uncertainty as to the order of those top 10 players on draft boards.

They can't assess player development in their final year before the draft.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

This is a great draft to have to take 3 picks outside of the first round, 75% of the pool will have no exposed form for a year and half of the first round will be academy picks.

A club or three could get very lucky, recruiting is hard enough already with exposed form. I can certainly big numbers of the best players out of this draft being outside the first round.

We need to get in some elite hardened bodies that fill holes for us, we have enough kids. if we haven’t traded our first rounder for that demographic then we’ve failed even before the draft.


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[HARKER]

If we don't manage to hit our targets via trade, this would be the exact type we need.
Reminds me of Rozee and a type that may likely come on very quick....and we love injured players.

EDIT: That pick-up @ 3.45. Not bad.

 

[Arr0w]

Priorities in any order

Speed and foot/finishing skills

KPD, 20-22 year old, given the uncertainty around Macreadie and Ben

Ruckman/forward ( there is one in the WAFL that I am keen on, but no longer a smokey)

 

[Christou2Kouta]

If we don't manage to hit our targets via trade, this would be the exact type we need.
Reminds me of Rozee and a type that may likely come on very quick....and we love injured players.

EDIT: That pick-up @ 3.45. Not bad.

It would be a dream come true that the year after Kemp slid to pick 17 that Hollands would slide to our first round pick. He would be a perfect addition.


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[HARKER]

It would be a dream come true that the year after Kemp slid to pick 17 that Hollands would slide to our first round pick. He would be a perfect addition.

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There's so much confidence there. This young man just knows he's good.
He looks like a winner in the way Kemp looked like a winner. Time will tell, but it just looks that way.

North have two first rounders as things stand and possibly three if they move on BBB. Reckon they'd kill for genuine class.

 

[BlueJet]

I'm a fan of both Henry & O'Driscoll.
Bruhn also comes with massive wraps from VC, he drew comparisons with Kemp in that if he gets his body right he could eventually be the pick of the group.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

There's so much confidence there. This young man just knows he's good.
He looks like a winner in the way Kemp looked like a winner. Time will tell, but it just looks that way.

More like Stocker then?

 

[Arr0w]

I like O'Driscoll too

 

[DangerousD]

I don't think the top 10 picks will be devalued, but everything from pick 10 on. Like no draft before, this one will be relying on 2 year old formlines and recent stats on growth and athleticism.

There's genuinely a chance to get kids at 25+ who'd go between 10 and 15 because they've grown, put on muscle and size and power, and failed to get the opportunity to bolt. There's kids who had huge fitness problems who, once within an AFL environment, will become endurance machines and thus top level midfielders.

The thing is and the difference will be that drafting over the last 2-5 years has been refined towards identifying two things: AFL readiness (criteria A) and talent ceiling (criteria B). Players that go in the first round generally trend toward having good results in both categories, and taper off in AFL readiness before talent ceiling. With this draft, all players will be less ready, so the draft itself becomes way more of a crapshoot. What it'll depend on is how good our talent watchers are at identifying AFL ability/attributes, and whether we can see anything we want in this draft.

I really like the idea of trading away our first and looking a bit deeper for some quality. There's a terrific opportunity to pluck blokes who really should've gone sooner this year.

Are you inviting just as much risk the other way by doing this? I agree there will be sliders and guys who in a normal year would have gone much higher, but you will also get a lot of players that will be a bust, who had a good underage year due to strong top age players, who will or may have been exposed as a top age.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Are you inviting just as much risk the other way by doing this? I agree there will be sliders and guys who in a normal year would have gone much higher, but you will also get a lot of players that will be a bust, who had a good underage year due to strong top age players, who will or may have been exposed as a top age.

Absolutely the draft will be higher risk this year.
I'd be focusing on project players.
Ruckmen, key positions, late starters etc.
And also mature players already in the system particularly in leagues which got to play this year.

 

[Gethelred]

Are you inviting just as much risk the other way by doing this? I agree there will be sliders and guys who in a normal year would have gone much higher, but you will also get a lot of players that will be a bust, who had a good underage year due to strong top age players, who will or may have been exposed as a top age.

Almost certainly, but it depends on your draft scout's eye for talent.

What I'm saying is that too many are relying on this entire draft being suspect due to the lack of champs and other footy. What this draft is, is a golden opportunity and a savage trap, all in one.

 

[BlueJet]

I think that some may be overstating the impact on the draft a tad, particularly with early picks, scouts would already have scouted this draft class for a number of years.
The major knock would be that some players would have really stated a claim throughout the year and will now miss that opportunity. (Think Clayton Oliver)

IMO It'll be interesting to monitor draft strategy.
I can see clubs either becoming more risk averse and look to more meat & potatoes types, while others may opt for polar opposite and swing for the fences with project/greener players.

 

[Gethelred]

I think that some may be overstating the impact on the draft a tad, particularly with early picks, scouts would already have scouted this draft class for a number of years.
The major knock would be that some players would have really stated a claim throughout the year and will now miss that opportunity. (Think Clayton Oliver)

IMO It'll be interesting to monitor draft strategy.
I can see clubs either becoming more risk averse and look to more meat & potatoes types, while others may opt for polar opposite and swing for the fences with project/greener players.

I want us to do this.

We have the meat and potatoes components already; what we need is to continue stocking up on top shelf talent. I want us to take a risk on 2-3 dynamic forward/mids, and to back our recruiters/development to get it right.

 

[Eiffel 65]

It would be a dream come true that the year after Kemp slid to pick 17 that Hollands would slide to our first round pick. He would be a perfect addition.


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I'd say we're probably in the sweet spot of this draft.

Time will tell but our pick (currently 7) could be around the mark for Hollands.

Elite kicking dual sided player. Dangerous overhead and hits the scoreboard. What more could you want?

Player comparison would be a mix between Isaac Heeney and Josh Kelly.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Google Podcasts is no longer available

podcasts.google.com

Latest Road to the draft. Mostly waffle but some interesting tidbits. Rating Thilthorpe as a potential #1 pick for Cows.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Just noticed something interesting on the main board.

Fremantle went into a deficit of draft points to match the bid for Henry in 2019.

Our first round selection may potentially push up 1 spot due to this

 

[Burgers45]

Priorities in any order

Speed and foot/finishing skills

KPD, 20-22 year old, given the uncertainty around Macreadie and Ben

Ruckman/forward ( there is one in the WAFL that I am keen on, but no longer a smokey)

What is Sam Walsh's younger brother, Harry like Arr0w? I read where he's 202 cms tall. And at 17 he's still got more growth in him. If he's got Sam's application & family genes he could be a good smokey to look at for development of a future ruck/forward position?

 

[DangerousD]

Just noticed something interesting on the main board.

Fremantle went into a deficit of draft points to match the bid for Henry in 2019.

Our first round selection may potentially push up 1 spot due to this

They have a 265 point deficit, currently two spots below us, as it stands we would climb 1 spot, so would GC

 

[Arr0w]

What is Sam Walsh's younger brother, Harry like Arr0w? I read where he's 202 cms tall. And at 17 he's still got more growth in him. If he's got Sam's application & family genes he could be a good smokey to look at for development of a future ruck/forward position?

Obviously different in size, but also in characteristics

Henry is really raw, at this stage more a pure ruckman if he develops but will take time

I have others ahead of him for that role in this draft

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Obviously different in size, but also in characteristics

Henry is really raw, at this stage more a pure ruckman if he develops but will take time

I have others ahead of him for that role in this draft

Hey arrow, imo needing a future 200cm plus key defender who could play on the likes of the Kings and others of that height what’s your opinion on Zac Reid 202cm Gippsland Power and Nick Cox 200cm Northern Knights as players who might fit our future need, both seem to possess great defensive traits along with great speed and agility... only seen limited footage, do you have any feedback or opinion of them? Understand your a big GrangerBarrass 195cm fan If you have any knowledge or feedback on these kids I’d be interested in your opinion...

 

[new_blue]

If we don't manage to hit our targets via trade, this would be the exact type we need.
Reminds me of Rozee and a type that may likely come on very quick....and we love injured players.

EDIT: That pick-up @ 3.45. Not bad.

What’s the knock on this kid? What’s his tank like?

looks to have the goods. Very impressive highlights.