Cerra

[YeOldTiger]

He is currently ranked 49 in the official rankings for what they are worth. But they are pretty credible when you look at the names. There are better players than Cerra ranked outside the top 50 but also probably a few above him he surpasses.

I think the key though is the last part of your statement. Why do you think he won’t ever be genuinely in the top 50 mids in the AFL? At 21 years of age, he appears to me to be tracking perfectly to sit in the top 50 long term and peak in the top 20 at least for a shorter period.

To me he is not a guy you go all stops out for, but I do think his credentials are to be taken seriously.

"To me he is not a guy you go all stops out for, but I do think his credentials are to be taken seriously".

I feel exactly the same, I wouldn't go all out for him. If we could get him for a steal, I'd be perfectly ok with that too and if he becomes a Richmond player I'm already on record as saying I'd support him all the way. I very rarely pot our players.

However, he's been talked up here like the doozy and frankly with our hot draft hand and some great kids in the first round we'd need to sell the farm for him (comparatively for a 21yo third string outside mid without a damaging asset).

I live in Freo, I've seen pretty much every game he's played over four years either in the flesh or free to air (every Eagles/Dockers game is shown fta here). In our set up I just don't see him being worth the draft capital or the big wage.

He's played about 80 games now and I haven't seen him be a major influence or the game changer in a single one of them. Brayshaw and Serong however, both influence games and can be matchwinners. Either one of those deserve the kind of wage/deal that will be needed to get him. I'm yet to see Cerra put his head over the ball and take a game by the scruff of the neck, whilst both of those two have.

He's played the best couple of games I've seen him play in the last month, which I think is when most here have started watching him. Hence my Cerra goggles post a while back.

Seriously, if this guy hadn't been out of contract and being from Vic, most here wouldn't have given him a second thought. He's available (at a cost) and that has many here wanting something, anything, anyone clutching at straws because they fear the cliff.

We're the bloody Premiers and we don't need to take whatever comes down the pipe anymore. We can do better and get better value for money. We are getting smashed around the ball week in week out. Cerra won't help there imo.

Anyway, we all see players differently and I'm repeating myself over and over for weeks now so I might just sit back and watch what we do. I trust the club and I've learned that they know better than I do.

 

[Karp3_dm]

Kmac is FA

Well there goes that idea….
Castagna + aarts and geelongs 1st then

 

[_RT_]

2 years less in a AFL club is a massive difference and they are totally different players
ideally we do require both but impossible to attain.

My view on Cerra is he is best compared to a player like Josh Kelly as thats the type/Role he plays and is like and a comparison at the same age would be a pretty good comparison and indication of what he projects. Below is their 4th year comparison

Adam Cerra and Joshua Kelly AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Joshua Kelly AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

The issue is that Green and Cerra are the 2 players that the majority of the board are talking about recruiting so you need to look at what they bring to the table and the differences between the 2.

If i was in freo situation with cap space then yes i would pay an extra $300k x 3 years for a top 10 draft pick

So you'd give up your 2nd/3rd best young player, near on $1m in cap space to get a extra mid first round draft pick that could end up being the next Jackson Hately Matthew Ling Aiden Bonar Jarrad Brander. There is no way Fremantle would do it and even if they did, the AFL would reject it as they know that it would be a dodgy deal.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Plenty of people have suggested we go after Tom Green instead of Cerra because Green is a better fit for us. But how true is that claim

Averages per game Tom Green V Adam Cerra

Matches Played: 17 17
Time on Ground %: 71.7 75.9
Disposals: 20.5 23.2
Kicks: 8.1 13.9
Handballs: 12.4 9.3
Inside 50s: 2.4 5.1
Disposal Efficiency: 71 69
Clangers: 3 3.2
Rebound 50s: 0.9 1.7
Effective Kicks: 4.6 8.5
Kick Efficiency: 57.7 61
Kick to Handball Ratio: 0.6 1.5
Effective Disposals: 14.5 16
Metres Gained: 197 406.9
Contested Possessions: 10.2 8
Uncontested Possessions: 10.8 15.4
Intercept Possessions: 1.7 2.9
Turnovers: 3.1 4.4
Contested Possession Rate: 48.6 34.3
Ground Ball Gets: 7.2 5.9
Fwd 50 Ground Ball Gets: 0.9 0.6
Centre Clearances: 1.2 1.1
Stoppage Clearances: 3.2 2.3
Total Clearances: 4.4 3.4
Marks: 3.1 5.2
Marks Inside 50: 0.4 0.4
Contested Marks: 0.2 0.1
Marks On Lead: 0.5 0.4
Intercept Marks: 0.1 0.4
Goals: 0.4 0.2
Behinds: 0.4 0.5
Goal Assists: 0.2 0.9
Goal Accuracy: 36.8 28.6
Shots at Goal: 1.1 0.8
Score Involvements: 4.7 5.2
Score Launches: 1.2 1.2
Tackles: 3.1 2.6
Tackles Inside 50: 0.4 0.3
Pressure Acts: 17 15.6
Defence Half Pressure Acts: 7.3 7.8
Spoils: 0.3 0.6
Contested Defence One on Ones: 0.2 0.2
Contested Defence Losses: 0.1 0.1
Contested Defence Loss Percentage: 25 25
Frees For: 1.1 1.1
Frees Against: 0.9 0.6
Bounces: 0.2 0.1
One Percenters: 0.9 1.4

I've highlighted the key stats above for what I consider important to a midfielder and there isn't that much between Green and Cerra. While Green has a better DE%, Cerra has the better kicking efficiency % and gains more metres per game. When you get down to contested possessions and clearances there is barely anything between them with Green averaging 2 contested possessions and 1 clearance a game more, however Green does have a superior contested possession rate. For someone that a lot here have labelled as a contested possession/clearance beast compared to Cerra, the difference isn't that big at all and neither is the scoreboard impact with Green kicking 7 goals this year to Cerras 4, while Cerra get the ball I50 more than Green and has slightly more score involvements and goal assists.

Looking at the above I honestly don't think we lose out either way, Green gets us someone who is a bull at the contest, whereas Cerra provides a good blend of both inside and outside ability. As I've posted before I think we have a good crop of young midfielders that can fulfil the need for an inside bull, but also quite capable on the outside as well, in a couple of years time as our older blokes get shifted out and they finally get the chance to develop their games.

It says a lot to me that Green more than holds his own in what's basically his first year (he's right in the rising star race as a favourite) compared to Cerra in his 4th year.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Plenty of people have suggested we go after Tom Green instead of Cerra because Green is a better fit for us. But how true is that claim

Averages per game Tom Green V Adam Cerra

Matches Played: 17 17
Time on Ground %: 71.7 75.9
Disposals: 20.5 23.2
Kicks: 8.1 13.9
Handballs: 12.4 9.3
Inside 50s: 2.4 5.1
Disposal Efficiency: 71 69
Clangers: 3 3.2
Rebound 50s: 0.9 1.7
Effective Kicks: 4.6 8.5
Kick Efficiency: 57.7 61
Kick to Handball Ratio: 0.6 1.5
Effective Disposals: 14.5 16
Metres Gained: 197 406.9
Contested Possessions: 10.2 8
Uncontested Possessions: 10.8 15.4
Intercept Possessions: 1.7 2.9
Turnovers: 3.1 4.4
Contested Possession Rate: 48.6 34.3
Ground Ball Gets: 7.2 5.9
Fwd 50 Ground Ball Gets: 0.9 0.6
Centre Clearances: 1.2 1.1
Stoppage Clearances: 3.2 2.3
Total Clearances: 4.4 3.4
Marks: 3.1 5.2
Marks Inside 50: 0.4 0.4
Contested Marks: 0.2 0.1
Marks On Lead: 0.5 0.4
Intercept Marks: 0.1 0.4
Goals: 0.4 0.2
Behinds: 0.4 0.5
Goal Assists: 0.2 0.9
Goal Accuracy: 36.8 28.6
Shots at Goal: 1.1 0.8
Score Involvements: 4.7 5.2
Score Launches: 1.2 1.2
Tackles: 3.1 2.6
Tackles Inside 50: 0.4 0.3
Pressure Acts: 17 15.6
Defence Half Pressure Acts: 7.3 7.8
Spoils: 0.3 0.6
Contested Defence One on Ones: 0.2 0.2
Contested Defence Losses: 0.1 0.1
Contested Defence Loss Percentage: 25 25
Frees For: 1.1 1.1
Frees Against: 0.9 0.6
Bounces: 0.2 0.1
One Percenters: 0.9 1.4

I've highlighted the key stats above for what I consider important to a midfielder and there isn't that much between Green and Cerra. While Green has a better DE%, Cerra has the better kicking efficiency % and gains more metres per game. When you get down to contested possessions and clearances there is barely anything between them with Green averaging 2 contested possessions and 1 clearance a game more, however Green does have a superior contested possession rate. For someone that a lot here have labelled as a contested possession/clearance beast compared to Cerra, the difference isn't that big at all and neither is the scoreboard impact with Green kicking 7 goals this year to Cerras 4, while Cerra get the ball I50 more than Green and has slightly more score involvements and goal assists.

Looking at the above I honestly don't think we lose out either way, Green gets us someone who is a bull at the contest, whereas Cerra provides a good blend of both inside and outside ability. As I've posted before I think we have a good crop of young midfielders that can fulfil the need for an inside bull, but also quite capable on the outside as well, in a couple of years time as our older blokes get shifted out and they finally get the chance to develop their games.

That's the answer...get both !! Lol

 

[sante]

Kmac is FA

And worth a 3rd or 4th rounder

 

[Drunken Wookie]

That's the answer...get both !! Lol

I can agree to that!

 

[RJK Tiger]

It says a lot to me that Green more than holds his own in what's basically his first year (he's right in the rising star race as a favourite) compared to Cerra in his 4th year.

It is interesting but considering one is out of contract and possibly available, whereas the other one is signed, under contract and shown nil signs of wanting to leave - i fail to see the relevance comparing the 2. Why would GWS let a top end talent kid leave who is on a team friendly contract until 2023? Our best chance of getting him will be either the end of next season the end of end 2023. Either way he should have nil influence in whether we chase for Cerra, if anything it only strengthens the argument. We have Bolton signed, get Cerra this year then once Cotch, Jack, Edwards retire in the next year or so - we can have the cash to chase Green too

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

So you'd give up your 2nd/3rd best young player, near on $1m in cap space to get a extra mid first round draft pick that could end up being the next Jackson Hately Matthew Ling Aiden Bonar Jarrad Brander. There is no way Fremantle would do it and even if they did, the AFL would reject it as they know that it would be a dodgy deal.

The thing is you are giving him up anyway s he would have demanded to be traded to Richmond

For a club like Fremantle with Lobb & Cerra gone thats already $1.5 million off their list and most likely paying $500k to Blake Acres who has not worked out and struggling in the wafl.

They will need the 1st rounders to 1 replace Cerra with a WA kid like Erasmus and could use the other on a KPF as well as having a 3rd which is their own
$300k for 3 years to get a top 10 kid - Yes i would do it with ample cap space available

 

[_RT_]

It says a lot to me that Green more than holds his own in what's basically his first year (he's right in the rising star race as a favourite) compared to Cerra in his 4th year.

Don't forget Green came into the league pretty much ready made at 188cm & 85kg (now 191 & 92) and having been in the GWS system already, so of course he is holding his own. Cerra was skinnier at 186 & 80 when drafted and is now 187 & 86, basically the size Green was drafted at.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It says a lot to me that Green more than holds his own in what's basically his first year (he's right in the rising star race as a favourite) compared to Cerra in his 4th year.

It is slightly deceptive that comparison because Cerra is only a bit over a year older than Green. 15 months and 15 days older to be precise. So they are much closer to one year apart than the two years their time in the system suggests at first glance.

I would say Green is tracking a bit better overall but there isn’t a huge amount in it at this stage once you apply fair adjustments for age etc.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It is interesting but considering one is out of contract and possibly available, whereas the other one is signed, under contract and shown nil signs of wanting to leave - i fail to see the relevance comparing the 2. Why would GWS let a top end talent kid leave who is on a team friendly contract until 2023? Our best chance of getting him will be either the end of next season the end of end 2023. Either way he should have nil influence in whether we chase for Cerra, if anything it only strengthens the argument. We have Bolton signed, get Cerra this year then once Cotch, Jack, Edwards retire in the next year or so - we can have the cash to chase Green too

GWS have a habit of signing their good youngsters on two years extensions around $450k. Kelly has just enforced his contractual right to 8 years x $1m to go with Coniglio long term at $1m pa and Whitfield and Greene will also be on very substantial coin.

So the feeling is GWS will be squeezed for cap space and may need to let a player or two like Green go along with his contract. Who knows, but that is the line of thinking as to why they may be willing to part with Tom Green.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

And worth a 3rd or 4th rounder

Any other club worth a 1st.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Don't forget Green came into the league pretty much ready made at 188cm & 85kg (now 191 & 92) and having been in the GWS system already, so of course he is holding his own. Cerra was skinnier at 186 & 80 when drafted and is now 187 & 86, basically the size Green was drafted at.

Hmm so
Green has grown 3 cm and added 7 kgs
Cerra has grown 1 cm and added 6kgs

So they have had similar growth

 

[_RT_]

The thing is you are giving him up anyway s he would have demanded to be traded to Richmond

For a club like Fremantle with Lobb & Cerra gone thats already $1.5 million off their list and most likely paying $500k to Blake Acres who has not worked out and struggling in the wafl.

They will need the 1st rounders to 1 replace Cerra with a WA kid like Erasmus and could use the other on a KPF as well as having a 3rd which is their own
$300k for 3 years to get a top 10 kid - Yes i would do it with ample cap space available

So you're taking on a player who isn't a gun on gun money and with that expectation will come from fans and the media that he performs at the level that saw him get offered $750k.

If I was Freo I'd bank the extra money and then take a run at someone like Deven Robertson at Brisbane to replace Cerra and then take a run at Aaron Naughton or Sam Taylor in the next couple of years as well.

 

[_RT_]

Hmm so
Green has grown 3 cm and added 7 kgs
Cerra has grown 1 cm and added 6kgs

So they have had similar growth

Similar growth but it's taken Cerra 4 years to get that whereas Green did it in his first year pretty much

 

[YeOldTiger]

Brownlow Medallist’s warning to clubs over Adam Cerra trade

What is Cerra worth in a trade?

www.sen.com.au

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

So you're taking on a player who isn't a gun on gun money and with that expectation will come from fans and the media that he performs at the level that saw him get offered $750k.

If I was Freo I'd bank the extra money and then take a run at someone like Deven Robertson at Brisbane to replace Cerra and then take a run at Aaron Naughton or Sam Taylor in the next couple of years as well.

Again you are saving money for a better player (talent wise) but dont have the pick to pay for him (Robertson)
As well as forgoing a top 10/11 pick. Now when you are taking a run at Taylor/Naughton who will both require big trade picks which you dont have

Cap space needs to be used and currently with Lobb & Cerra leaving (if this eventuates) Fyfe / Mundy / Walters at the end and opening up space soon
they can easily afford to sell some salary cap space for a required winger who they get for no picks as a free agent as well as acquiring the extra asset in a top 10/11 draft pick.

No brainer imo

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Similar growth but it's taken Cerra 4 years to get that whereas Green did it in his first year pretty much

So this would indicate due to physical growth in such a short period then Green has a bigger scope for improvement and upside than Cerra who looks like is just about at his end physical development

 

[_RT_]

Brownlow Medallist’s warning to clubs over Adam Cerra trade

What is Cerra worth in a trade?

www.sen.com.au

His pretty much right.

 

[Oshka]

Brownlow Medallist’s warning to clubs over Adam Cerra trade

What is Cerra worth in a trade?

www.sen.com.au

He’s worth a late first.

 

[_RT_]

Again you are saving money for a better player (talent wise) but dont have the pick to pay for him (Robertson)
As well as forgoing a top 10/11 pick. Now when you are taking a run at Taylor/Naughton who will both require big trade picks which you dont have

Cap space needs to be used and currently with Lobb & Cerra leaving (if this eventuates) Fyfe / Mundy / Walters at the end and opening up space soon
they can easily afford to sell some salary cap space for a required winger who they get for no picks as a free agent as well as acquiring the extra asset in a top 10/11 draft pick.

No brainer imo

If Cerra leaves and they get our first that's 2 firsts they have this year. Next year when Robertson is out of contract they can afford to trade away their first and get a kid with 2-3 years in the system already that is a walk up replacement for Cerra in their midfield. Taylor might be a bit more difficult to land, but being out of contract in 2022 they could also offer up a 2023 R1 pick and depending on other deals could have more to offer.

The point is you don't compromise your list/cap space by overpaying for someone who simply isn't worth it. If Richmond were to offer up $750k for a player of KMacs level there would be a shortage of manure in Melbourne as trucks would be lining up to dump at Punt Road.

So this would indicate due to physical growth in such a short period then Green has a bigger scope for improvement and upside than Cerra who looks like is just about at his end physical development

Or maybe Green is closer to the end of his development being 191 & 92 I doubt there is much more size to be added, he might harden up a little when the puppy fat becomes muscle though.

 

[RJK Tiger]

GWS have a habit of signing their good youngsters on two years extensions around $450k. Kelly has just enforced his contractual right to 8 years x $1m to go with Coniglio long term at $1m pa and Whitfield and Greene will also be on very substantial coin.

So the feeling is GWS will be squeezed for cap space and may need to let a player or two like Green go along with his contract. Who knows, but that is the line of thinking as to why they may be willing to part with Tom Green.

He re-signed the extra 2 years on the same day he debuted, so its doubtful he is on $450k.

If GWS have fallen on cap problems, I think its far more realistic they will move on from Coniglio in a similar way the Pies did with Treloar. That entire situation with him is a massive shadow falling over the club -the decision to re-sign him as captain has proven to be the wrong one. That teams captain is Toby Greene - it will be incredibly hard for Cog to be stood down as cap and play on - I would put more money on Cog ending up at Carlton for a trade that includes SFA in picks and GWS paying a portion of his contract over the next couple of years

The Toby Greene lead GWS is a real thing - they looked so much better with him leading them, team had more direction - they will be a genuine threat sooner than later if they stick on that road. Why risk it by trying to juggle this Congilio situation - just move him on now, sort your cap issues and take the hit. You have and had enough 1st round pick talent to last 2 decades anyway - i'd be stunned if Congilio is still there next year.

 

[RJK Tiger]

He’s worth a late first.

What are you basing that on?

Top 5 pick a few years ago. 70+ games AFL experience with linear improvement in his game continuously. In a re-draft of his season he still would be a top 10 pick, arguably still a top 5 pending on what you value more.

I really don't see any logic to how anyone thinks he would only be worth a pick 18 etc, unless we are saying this draft is 3 or 4 times deeper than the draft he was taken in - which i don't think is true

Based on this - what do you think RCD or CCJ are worth? Surely far far less. A late 2nd - early 3rd?

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

If Cerra leaves and they get our first that's 2 firsts they have this year. Next year when Robertson is out of contract they can afford to trade away their first and get a kid with 2-3 years in the system already that is a walk up replacement for Cerra in their midfield. Taylor might be a bit more difficult to land, but being out of contract in 2022 they could also offer up a 2023 R1 pick and depending on other deals could have more to offer.

The point is you don't compromise your list/cap space by overpaying for someone who simply isn't worth it. If Richmond were to offer up $750k for a player of KMacs level there would be a shortage of manure in Melbourne as trucks would be lining up to dump at Punt Road.


Or maybe Green is closer to the end of his development being 191 & 92 I doubt there is much more size to be added, he might harden up a little when the puppy fat becomes muscle though.

I think both players are pretty much at their final physical size but Green has an advantage being 2 years less in the AFL and having a bigger scope for improvement not only with his current position but also additional positions he can learn to play like fwd and has already shown some rucking ability
if i could take either of the 2 players im certainly taking Green every time.

The first part of your post regarding Richmond spending extra on a player like Macca , If Richmond were in Freo position i dont think anybody would dump chicken sh!t on the driveway for getting an extra pick 10-12 for $300k cap space. But the 1st part of your post about already having the 2 picks from Richmond - I bloody hope not as thats when im driving the shit truck to dump