Cerra

Cerra

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Best case result for both fremantle & Richmond would be ' If they are smart and Cerra requests a trade to Richmond


Fremantle are needing a wingman and have mentioned Mcintosh name frequently in the past and have inquired about him
He is now a free agent and it would not surprise me to see them make him an offer and he would be expendable to the RFC and we could let him leave via free agency.
What Freo need to do is rather than give him $500k x 3 years offer him $750k x 3 years allowing a 1st round compo to Richmond
Pick #11-#12 range then Richmond give up that pick as well as our 1st rounder to freo allowing 2 picks in the 11-13 range

Free agency is prior to trade period and they are 2 separate deals
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I would probably nearly take all of those before Cerra, but the big difference is they don’t seem to be available to us, and Cerra may be.

I would also say of those so far only LDU has withstood the trial of holding down a full time inside mid role for any extended length of time. Not that there is any reason to suspect the others couldn’t, but Cerra has proven he can play that role to a certain level whilst shouldering a full time load.
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That list i put together with just 1 minute of thought and yes they are not available but it was in response to your post in regards to the value and quality of Cerra and where he ranks in the list of under 22 players and just pointing out AFL rankings are not a great guide.

I would even argue that if the 2017 draft is redone Cerra is border line top 10 in his draft
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I see it slightly differently to that. I think if you want to win multiple flags with a team you probably need about 4 of the top 50 inside mids in the AFL playing for you at the time. I don’t think it matters what order you recruit them in. You probably need 2 x $750k plus players in there and another two on at least $600-650k.

So thinking of our flag run:

Dusty on $1.1m
Cotchin on $800k?
Prestia on $750k
Edwards on $5-600k?

Or Hawks before us:

Mitchell $800k
Hodge $800k
Lewis $650k?
Burgoyne $750k?

So you probably have around $3m to spend on your 4 main mids. I think Cerra on $600-650k can fit within that, then Bolton $600k, Martin $1.1m and Prestia $700k. You get say a Green or other bull in on lower money for now and Cerra, Bolton and that player all end up on $700-750k+ in their next contract when Martin and Prestia(and Cotchin) come off the big money. And then in say 2-3 years time we just need to have found that 4th guy through existing stocks, trade or free agency. Anyone we draft from now on is unlikely to be at that level by then.

I don’t think Cerra is so much a luxury acquisition. It is more the case if we can lock these guys in, the earlier the better.
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I just reckon with a few looming retirements and some concerns around the durability of a few of our first tier mids we're standing on the precipice of having a massive hole in our midfield stocks. Like we saw mid-season when we were relying on RCD to be our inside ball winner. Credit to him but it wasn't pretty.
I'm not throwing cold water on the idea of getting Cerra across entirely. I just question whether it should be a priority when his output may considerably drop off when he doesn't have a Brayshaw handing him the ball every time. If it's part of some grand plan to address the other glaring list issues as well then all is well.

It's all BF shittalk anyway, who knows what's really going on behind the iron curtain.
 

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beema limapep said:
I think it will look something like:-

Richmond pick 17 and 25 for Cerra and Freos 3rd rounder.
Click to expand...


Haha no way.

It will cost us our first rounder minimum (let's say pick 10) and something else to boot - maybe even a steak knife like KMac or even pick 25.

Freo will clearly go after both our R1 picks (say 10 & 18) and would probably be offering a R2 back to us I reckon.


Not worth it anyway. Best to just go the effing draft.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I see it slightly differently to that. I think if you want to win multiple flags with a team you probably need about 4 of the top 50 inside mids in the AFL playing for you at the time. I don’t think it matters what order you recruit them in. You probably need 2 x $750k plus players in there and another two on at least $600-650k.

So thinking of our flag run:

Dusty on $1.1m
Cotchin on $800k?
Prestia on $750k
Edwards on $5-600k?

Or Hawks before us:

Mitchell $800k
Hodge $800k
Lewis $650k?
Burgoyne $750k?

So you probably have around $3m to spend on your 4 main mids. I think Cerra on $600-650k can fit within that, then Bolton $600k, Martin $1.1m and Prestia $700k. You get say a Green or other bull in on lower money for now and Cerra, Bolton and that player all end up on $700-750k+ in their next contract when Martin and Prestia(and Cotchin) come off the big money. And then in say 2-3 years time we just need to have found that 4th guy through existing stocks, trade or free agency. Anyone we draft from now on is unlikely to be at that level by then.

I don’t think Cerra is so much a luxury acquisition. It is more the case if we can lock these guys in, the earlier the better.
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Imo the only flaw in your excellent post is that Adam Cerra isn't and won't ever be a top 50 mid in the AFL.
 
YeOldTiger said:
Imo the only flaw in your excellent post is that Adam Cerra isn't and won't ever be a top 50 mid in the AFL.
Click to expand...

He is currently ranked 49 in the official rankings for what they are worth. But they are pretty credible when you look at the names. There are better players than Cerra ranked outside the top 50 but also probably a few above him he surpasses.

I think the key though is the last part of your statement. Why do you think he won’t ever be genuinely in the top 50 mids in the AFL? At 21 years of age, he appears to me to be tracking perfectly to sit in the top 50 long term and peak in the top 20 at least for a shorter period.

To me he is not a guy you go all stops out for, but I do think his credentials are to be taken seriously.
 
Rioli2Rioli said:
Best case result for both fremantle & Richmond would be ' If they are smart and Cerra requests a trade to Richmond


Fremantle are needing a wingman and have mentioned Mcintosh name frequently in the past and have inquired about him
He is now a free agent and it would not surprise me to see them make him an offer and he would be expendable to the RFC and we could let him leave via free agency.
What Freo need to do is rather than give him $500k x 3 years offer him $750k x 3 years allowing a 1st round compo to Richmond
Pick #11-#12 range then Richmond give up that pick as well as our 1st rounder to freo allowing 2 picks in the 11-13 range

Free agency is prior to trade period and they are 2 separate deals
Click to expand...

You've really thought this through haven't you.

Don't know why Freo would do that. But the formula used to be first 2 years wages. So if they went $750 * 2 then 4350 that might get it done. Although would the AFL give us a first? They broke their own rules to deny us one with BEllis.
 
Dr Tigris said:
You've really thought this through haven't you.

Don't know why Freo would do that. But the formula used to be first 2 years wages. So if they went $750 * 2 then 4350 that might get it done. Although would the AFL give us a first? They broke their own rules to deny us one with BEllis.
Click to expand...

They were really into Macca few years ago and ended up with Acres which has not really worked out and they are still after a wingman
wouldnt surprise me to see them actually make an offer to McIntosh but of course would most likely be $450k-$500k range for 3/4 years

If they make the offer $750k x 3 years its a band 1 compo and i think with that Richmond would be ok to see Macca earn some cash
which also takes 400k off our TTP cap and creates a space for Cerra on the list - Works well for Richmond

Freo gets 2 picks 10-11 range and i think Richmond would be happy to give them up as its virtually a gift pick
 
No reason not to back Blair in on this player.

Prestia is much much better than I thought he would ever be, triple premiership player, and best and fairest in a premiership year, incredible finals performer.

If Blair Hartley can get Cerra in, at a price he is happy with, that's good enough for me.

Don't know enough about Cerra personally, doesn't look real quick, but he is a classy kick, and seems to have leadership qualities, not sure if he is tough enough, but he is starting to get alot of the ball.

We can just kick back and relax on this one, all proposed draft pick swaps are being discussed between the clubs as we speak, If the tigers reckon the cost in $ and picks is worth it, he will be a tiger, cost is key here.
 
db26 said:
His not worth 2 first rounders no way in the world your paying that for a top 20 player in the afl. Prestia was in different class and much more established when we traded for him.
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Prestia was injured and inconsistent and people were melting hard about paying pick 6 for him.
 

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Andyy said:
Haha no way.

It will cost us our first rounder minimum (let's say pick 10) and something else to boot - maybe even a steak knife like KMac or even pick 25.

Freo will clearly go after both our R1 picks (say 10 & 18) and would probably be offering a R2 back to us I reckon.


Not worth it anyway. Best to just go the effing draft.
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If that's the case they can go **** themselves
It's vanilla cerra they are talking about not Gary ablett junior.
 
db26 said:
His not worth 2 first rounders no way in the world your paying that for a top 20 player in the afl. Prestia was in different class and much more established when we traded for him.
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If we gave up 2 first rounders for Cerra the club has lost me. We find ourselves in the extremely rare position of having the best hand in the draft while not having bottomed out and not having given up any star players. We can set ourselves up for the next dynasty here.
We've got 2 swings at finding some genuine top end talent and a couple of bonus chances at some sliders in the second round.
We can't afford to sell the farm.

It's gonna be bloody fascinating to watch it all unfold come years end.
 
Plenty of people have suggested we go after Tom Green instead of Cerra because Green is a better fit for us. But how true is that claim

Averages per game Tom Green V Adam Cerra

Matches Played: 17 17
Time on Ground %: 71.7 75.9
Disposals: 20.5 23.2
Kicks: 8.1 13.9
Handballs: 12.4 9.3
Inside 50s: 2.4 5.1
Disposal Efficiency: 71 69
Clangers: 3 3.2
Rebound 50s: 0.9 1.7
Effective Kicks: 4.6 8.5
Kick Efficiency: 57.7 61
Kick to Handball Ratio: 0.6 1.5
Effective Disposals: 14.5 16
Metres Gained: 197 406.9
Contested Possessions: 10.2 8
Uncontested Possessions: 10.8 15.4
Intercept Possessions: 1.7 2.9
Turnovers: 3.1 4.4
Contested Possession Rate: 48.6 34.3
Ground Ball Gets: 7.2 5.9
Fwd 50 Ground Ball Gets: 0.9 0.6
Centre Clearances: 1.2 1.1
Stoppage Clearances: 3.2 2.3
Total Clearances: 4.4 3.4
Marks: 3.1 5.2
Marks Inside 50: 0.4 0.4
Contested Marks: 0.2 0.1
Marks On Lead: 0.5 0.4
Intercept Marks: 0.1 0.4
Goals: 0.4 0.2
Behinds: 0.4 0.5
Goal Assists: 0.2 0.9
Goal Accuracy: 36.8 28.6
Shots at Goal: 1.1 0.8
Score Involvements: 4.7 5.2
Score Launches: 1.2 1.2
Tackles: 3.1 2.6
Tackles Inside 50: 0.4 0.3
Pressure Acts: 17 15.6
Defence Half Pressure Acts: 7.3 7.8
Spoils: 0.3 0.6
Contested Defence One on Ones: 0.2 0.2
Contested Defence Losses: 0.1 0.1
Contested Defence Loss Percentage: 25 25
Frees For: 1.1 1.1
Frees Against: 0.9 0.6
Bounces: 0.2 0.1
One Percenters: 0.9 1.4

I've highlighted the key stats above for what I consider important to a midfielder and there isn't that much between Green and Cerra. While Green has a better DE%, Cerra has the better kicking efficiency % and gains more metres per game. When you get down to contested possessions and clearances there is barely anything between them with Green averaging 2 contested possessions and 1 clearance a game more, however Green does have a superior contested possession rate. For someone that a lot here have labelled as a contested possession/clearance beast compared to Cerra, the difference isn't that big at all and neither is the scoreboard impact with Green kicking 7 goals this year to Cerras 4, while Cerra get the ball I50 more than Green and has slightly more score involvements and goal assists.

Looking at the above I honestly don't think we lose out either way, Green gets us someone who is a bull at the contest, whereas Cerra provides a good blend of both inside and outside ability. As I've posted before I think we have a good crop of young midfielders that can fulfil the need for an inside bull, but also quite capable on the outside as well, in a couple of years time as our older blokes get shifted out and they finally get the chance to develop their games.
 
Rioli2Rioli said:
They were really into Macca few years ago and ended up with Acres which has not really worked out and they are still after a wingman
wouldnt surprise me to see them actually make an offer to McIntosh but of course would most likely be $450k-$500k range for 3/4 years

If they make the offer $750k x 3 years its a band 1 compo and i think with that Richmond would be ok to see Macca earn some cash
which also takes 400k off our TTP cap and creates a space for Cerra on the list - Works well for Richmond

Freo gets 2 picks 10-11 range and i think Richmond would be happy to give them up as its virtually a gift pick
Click to expand...
Would you pay Aish $750k a year for 3 years to get pick 11 and 12 in the draft while losing Bolton? Because that's about equivalent of what you're suggesting Freo accept.
 
Drunken Wookie said:
If we gave up 2 first rounders for Cerra the club has lost me. We find ourselves in the extremely rare position of having the best hand in the draft while not having bottomed out and not having given up any star players. We can set ourselves up for the next dynasty here.
We've got 2 swings at finding some genuine top end talent and a couple of bonus chances at some sliders in the second round.
We can't afford to sell the farm.

It's gonna be bloody fascinating to watch it all unfold come years end.
Click to expand...
Top end talent?
This year it stops at 3.
 
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_RT_ said:
Plenty of people have suggested we go after Tom Green instead of Cerra because Green is a better fit for us. But how true is that claim

Averages per game Tom Green V Adam Cerra

Matches Played: 17 17
Time on Ground %: 71.7 75.9
Disposals: 20.5 23.2
Kicks: 8.1 13.9
Handballs: 12.4 9.3
Inside 50s: 2.4 5.1
Disposal Efficiency: 71 69
Clangers: 3 3.2
Rebound 50s: 0.9 1.7
Effective Kicks: 4.6 8.5
Kick Efficiency: 57.7 61
Kick to Handball Ratio: 0.6 1.5
Effective Disposals: 14.5 16
Metres Gained: 197 406.9
Contested Possessions: 10.2 8
Uncontested Possessions: 10.8 15.4
Intercept Possessions: 1.7 2.9
Turnovers: 3.1 4.4
Contested Possession Rate: 48.6 34.3
Ground Ball Gets: 7.2 5.9
Fwd 50 Ground Ball Gets: 0.9 0.6
Centre Clearances: 1.2 1.1
Stoppage Clearances: 3.2 2.3
Total Clearances: 4.4 3.4
Marks: 3.1 5.2
Marks Inside 50: 0.4 0.4
Contested Marks: 0.2 0.1
Marks On Lead: 0.5 0.4
Intercept Marks: 0.1 0.4
Goals: 0.4 0.2
Behinds: 0.4 0.5
Goal Assists: 0.2 0.9
Goal Accuracy: 36.8 28.6
Shots at Goal: 1.1 0.8
Score Involvements: 4.7 5.2
Score Launches: 1.2 1.2
Tackles: 3.1 2.6
Tackles Inside 50: 0.4 0.3
Pressure Acts: 17 15.6
Defence Half Pressure Acts: 7.3 7.8
Spoils: 0.3 0.6
Contested Defence One on Ones: 0.2 0.2
Contested Defence Losses: 0.1 0.1
Contested Defence Loss Percentage: 25 25
Frees For: 1.1 1.1
Frees Against: 0.9 0.6
Bounces: 0.2 0.1
One Percenters: 0.9 1.4

I've highlighted the key stats above for what I consider important to a midfielder and there isn't that much between Green and Cerra. While Green has a better DE%, Cerra has the better kicking efficiency % and gains more metres per game. When you get down to contested possessions and clearances there is barely anything between them with Green averaging 2 contested possessions and 1 clearance a game more, however Green does have a superior contested possession rate. For someone that a lot here have labelled as a contested possession/clearance beast compared to Cerra, the difference isn't that big at all and neither is the scoreboard impact with Green kicking 7 goals this year to Cerras 4, while Cerra get the ball I50 more than Green and has slightly more score involvements and goal assists.

Looking at the above I honestly don't think we lose out either way, Green gets us someone who is a bull at the contest, whereas Cerra provides a good blend of both inside and outside ability. As I've posted before I think we have a good crop of young midfielders that can fulfil the need for an inside bull, but also quite capable on the outside as well, in a couple of years time as our older blokes get shifted out and they finally get the chance to develop their games.
Click to expand...
2 years less in a AFL club is a massive difference and they are totally different players
ideally we do require both but impossible to attain.

My view on Cerra is he is best compared to a player like Josh Kelly as thats the type/Role he plays and is like and a comparison at the same age would be a pretty good comparison and indication of what he projects. Below is their 4th year comparison

Adam Cerra and Joshua Kelly AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Joshua Kelly AFL Stats Comparison.
www.footywire.com
 
_RT_ said:
Would you pay Aish $750k a year for 3 years to get pick 11 and 12 in the draft while losing Bolton? Because that's about equivalent of what you're suggesting Freo accept.
Click to expand...
If i was in freo situation with cap space then yes i would pay an extra $300k x 3 years for a top 10 draft pick
 
Rioli2Rioli said:
2 years less in a AFL club is a massive difference and they are totally different players
ideally we do require both but impossible to attain.

My view on Cerra is he is best compared to a player like Josh Kelly as thats the type/Role he plays and is like and a comparison at the same age would be a pretty good comparison and indication of what he projects. Below is their 4th year comparison

Adam Cerra and Joshua Kelly AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Joshua Kelly AFL Stats Comparison.
www.footywire.com
Click to expand...
so hes not worth 700k, not yet anyway.id pay him 550k tops based on those figures,offer that plus incentives over 3 for high B&F finishes,best in finals etc
brownlow n all that
hes not as good as Dusty at the same age and dusty was on what ? roughly 450-550k in years 5-7
 
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