Yeah we do
Speculation Chad Warner (OOC 2025)
- Thread starter Dockeroo
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- Oct 2, 2016
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Snuffaluphagus
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That's inaccurate at the moment as people are very busy, we currently have pick 7 and 10 and with the runs Port and Pies have left I think it's more likely they improve than get worse
DRAGONS FFC - Moderator
- #480
crankygeese
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Sure, and the Pies trading their future 1st to GWS wasn't supposed to be a top 3 pick when they thought they could get value earlier because Daicos was coming in.
Pies probably didn't think they'd be giving up Pick 7 for Treloar either when they traded for him. Future picks are always a risk.
The Dockers probably weren't anticipating the Pies and Power to miss finals this year and hand them a couple of top 10 picks.
Things can go pear shaped all the time with future picks.
But, because most teams think they'll improve when trading future picks, sweeteners usually get thrown in, like that Future 2nd. That Future 2nd only got pushed out to 34 because the 1st round went to 29 picks. 5 Academy, 3 Compo, 2 F/S, 2 Priority.
It was the 5th pick in the 2nd round.
In an OOC scenario for Warner, if no top 10 picks were available, 2 1sts (one of which being a future pick) and a 2nd would probably also get the job done. Likely with some later picks swapping hands as well to make both parties happy.
But that's a 2025 scenario
On a slightly separate note, it will be interesting to see how trading 2 years into the future impacts the value of trades. Some team will get desperate and go all in. It happens every trade period.
(Note to self - Find Kinnear Beatson and convince him to trade Future 1sts with Collingwood, they appear to be cursed)
crankygeese
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Agreed. I'd imagine that's what the Swans would ask for to get him in 2024.
Honestly, when I suggested 3 1st rounders this year to get Warner while in contract I thought I'd get push back saying he wasn't worth that much. No player is worth that much, even one like Chad who looks like he could win a Brownlow. But if Freo were dumb enough to offer 2 top 10 picks and a future 1st for him this year, I'd drive him to the airport myself.
Don't get me wrong, Chad is a jet, but that would be handing Beatson a legacy defining draft hand to build a dynasty.
We already have 2 1st rounders this year. So we'd have 4 1sts this year (2 of which would be top 10)
We'd have 2 1sts next year
We'd have a ridiculous amount of draft capital for trade purposes. Do we want to make a play for Pick 1? Do we want to make a play for Gold Coast's 1st rounder with our later picks and have 3 top 10's this year?
Do we want to package up our future 1sts and go all in this year and play for 2 top 5 picks?
Do we want to push one of our 2024 picks to 2025 so that we have 3 1sts in 2025 when Rampe, Parker, and Lloyd are all coming out of contract so we can trade for somebody?
The draft and trade flexibility would be the stuff of dreams.
But it would also provide us with a crazy amount of cap flexibility.
We wouldn't have to worry about a new contract for Warner, and the Dockers would be throwing out their salary structure to convince him to come over.
1st rounders now sign 3 year contracts, so those two draft hauls would first be coming out of contract in 2027 and 2028. Until then they'd be playing on cap friendly contracts.
The following players will be taking pay cuts or retiring in that stretch.
Parker, Adams, Lloyd, Rampe, Ladhams, Grundy
Right as they'd be freeing up cap space, we'd be in a position to give those new kids a second contract that would make them happy but wouldn't break the bank, all while the salary cap jumps and new CBA's kick in. It would be the perfect way to plan cap management over the next 5 years.
It would also significantly extend our window via our list demographics. We'd have more access to top end talent in the 18-21 range. Gulden, Campbell, Warner, Blakey, they're all in that 22-25 bracket now.
Getting top end talent now with a bounty of 1st rounders would let us do a handover from Parker, Lloyd, Rampe, to Heeney, Mills, Florent, Hayward, Papley, to Gulden, Blakey, Campbell, Rowbottom, McCartin, McDonald to Cleary, Sheldrick, Roberts, 2025 and 2026 draft haul
That would be a great result.
It's BigFooty, so obviously you don't speak for Freo, and I don't speak for Sydney, but if you could stand outside Peter Bell's office every day from now until Trade Period with a sign that says "2x top 10 picks and a 2026 1st for Warner this year" that would be much appreciated.
Snuffaluphagus
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Man, love your approach and it really sums it how awesome we have it this year. Swans more than anyone as well could "afford" to let Warner go in contract with the depth you have. Would really just set you up to have a continually top up with good talent and stay competing
crankygeese
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Like I said, if Freo are insane enough to offer up 2x top 10 picks this year and a future first next year for Warner, just to get him a year early, rather than wait and trying for him when he's OOC, then I hope we snap Bell's hand off shaking on that deal.
The Swans will ask for it, because he's in contract for another year and we have a track record of holding players to their contract, as well as a record of then keeping those players beyond their contract. But even if Freo are spooked about the Swans extending him so that they miss out, no club should actually pay that kind of price. It's nuts.
What if you do that trade and next year Serong and Warner do ACL's?
What if the Optus stadium ground staff try to adjust the ground and get it wrong leading to a spate of impact injuries?
All while making Warner your highest paid player and having every other agent in your ear about pay rises for their players.
No team should pay that much. But if you can convince Bell to do so, then I sure hope Beatson takes you up on that offer.
Snuffaluphagus
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I actually agree with your opinion as well. I think if you can draft and develop, you don't miss on many top 10s and it can really set up you're list. I wouldn't offer that much personally (two 10s is enough "overs" to let it go otherwise IMO) but I know Freo peeps hearts are all in on The Chad so are more open to it than you might have though otherwise.
It's especially funny comparing your opinion to Richmond supporters opinion on potentially trading Bolton - who is decently inferior to Warner IMO - especially comparing the state of each team
crankygeese
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For Warner this year? Hell no.
Why would the Swans do that? He's contracted for another year. There is no incentive for the Swans to do that deal in 2024.
That's roughly the same value as a 2025 1st in the teens and a 2026 1st in the teens for Warner straight up. Which is what the Swans would get in 2025 if they held him to his contract.
It's why I don't think it will happen in 2024. The asking price will be astronomical for a contracted Warner, and the Dockers would be stupid to pay it. That means Freo will have to risk him extending his contract with the Swans in 2025 and if that means Freo overpay this year, then I'll be cheering that decision.
crankygeese
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Bolton is a funny one, the Tigers don't have as much top end talent on their list in that age bracket, so he's a lot more valuable to them and has a long term contract. It's natural that they would ask a higher price, his consistency (I think Bolton is crazy talented but his consistency is a problem) compared to Warner isn't particularly relevant IMO, his contract status is.
If Bolton only had a year left on his contract it would be a very different story as he's probably more of what you need. But a contract until 2028 makes that near impossible.
Freo are probably a year or two away from going all chips in IMO
They've gone 11th, 5th (SF), 14th, and are currently 5th. If they can do 2 more years in the finals, that's when they should go all in. The core of the list will be at the right age, they'll have vets and young talent either side, and 2026 will be the final draft before Tassie join, so deals will be flying.
Compare that to Brisbane who went 2nd (SF), 2nd (PF), 4th (SF), 6th (PF) then went all in to get Dunkley. That's the kind of time the Dockers should chase players like Warner or Bolton, after they've had 3 consecutive finals series and know who stands up and who doesn't. See what NOD, Erasmas, Johnson etc. are doing in 2026 then push the chips in.
I like the trade hand the Dockers have this year, I'm just not sure they should use it all immediately. Though obviously that's easier said than done, they have that trade hand this year, who knows what happens next year?
But those decisions are what list managers get paid for in the end. It will be interesting to watch whatever happens.
Taylor
Community Leader
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- #490
Consider that picks 18 and 19 will blow out considerably when the NGA matching starts from pick one in the draft, along with all those father son picks.
We are talking about picks that would be well into the second round and turning them into top ten picks before most of the bids begin, along with a future first too.
- Oct 2, 2016
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I'd rather keep Warner than 2x Dylan Stephens
You'd hope that one of them would become as good as Warner.
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Jon Ralph?? I thought we all agreed on here he was ****ing useless.
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No they don’t, but he is committed to seeing out his contract.
Honestly I think when Port and Collingwood were looking a lot better a few months ago, we would have been every chance of offering those 3 firsts to get the deal done this year.
Now that those picks look like ending inside the top 10 my feeling is we may have cooled on how much we offer this year and might try our luck next year when he's OOC - and looking elsewhere to get better value out of the Port/Coll 1sts.
If Syd would entertain an offer this year you'd still probably get two 1sts, including a top 10 + probably also a 2nd, but it sounds like you want him in the team next year, which is completely understandable.
Now that those picks look like ending inside the top 10 my feeling is we may have cooled on how much we offer this year and might try our luck next year when he's OOC - and looking elsewhere to get better value out of the Port/Coll 1sts.
If Syd would entertain an offer this year you'd still probably get two 1sts, including a top 10 + probably also a 2nd, but it sounds like you want him in the team next year, which is completely understandable.
- Apr 1, 2018
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As per my recent post in the Oscar Allen thread - Any Sydney or Eagles punters keen on a 3-way trade of Warner to Dockers, Oscar Allen to Sydney and the Dockers 3 First rounders to Eagles with probably a couple of second rounders back to Dockers (maybe eagles this year and next ?)
Thoughts ?
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Thoughts ?
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freoforever94
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Why would Eagles give up Allen first of all and why would they help freo get warner when they equally want him at the club
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They need to do something to bring in a bucket load of quality talent in the next 2-3 years pre Tassie or they’ll be screwed for another 10 + years.
Of anyone on their list over about 25 they’d get the best return from Oscar Allen while losing just one player. As an example he’d be worth 3 times what Waterman would for currently a similar on field return.
They have a severe lack of talent in the 25-30 year age bracket. Anyone over 30 won’t get them anything at the trade table. Anyone under 25 might be a slim chance of being in their next tilt at a flag,
Allen turned 25 earlier this year, at the most optimistic he’ll be 30 + the next time they are contending so why not?
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We dont neccessarily want Warner, not for the price of a top 5 pick + more.
Id rather Allen over Warner tbh. Id also rather Freos 3 first rounders over Warner too
if it was our pick 2/3 instead of Allen there might be a trade in there somewhere. Or if there was a way to include Waterman instead
- Apr 1, 2018
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For 6 and 7 alone I reckon you’re correct but throw in the Future first and that’s more than any other player has ever been traded for by a long shot. Would def be a decent second rounder or two back I would have thought !
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