Autopsy Collingwood: Where to from here?

[WillHayward]

Crisp was steak knives in the Dayne Beams trade and he didn't even want to leave at the time. Darcy Cameron was a recycled pickup from Sydney. Hardly "attracting" talent.

Collingwood have just missed the finals, and half their best 22 will be 30+ next year. Basic logic suggests it's nigh-impossible to replace that many players quickly enough in the short term to sustain premiership contention. They don't even have a first round pick to trade this year.

Crisp has played 250 games and won 2 x B and F.

Call it whatever you like but he's a talent.

 

[beerbandit]

Yes, your 2023 flag was driven primarily by players traded/drafted between 8 and 20 years ago.

I am "merely" pointing out that your club's 2020 off-season was a complete disaster and getting worse by the year, and that your current contingent of players aged 23 or under isn't great. Taking this into account, it is fair to suggest Collingwood's recruiters have lost some touch, particularly when drafting. Or what, do you think they're entitled to credit for matching a bid on Nick Daicos?

I'm not even remotely touchy. You felt the need to bring up Sydney in a thread that has nothing to do with Sydney. This tells me you need to attack my club to compensate against me scrutinizing Collingwood.

And we have won a flag after this so called 2020 shocker.

Treloar is only just starting to play well and he is now in the age bracket that doesn’t suit you as a football observer.

Phillips is gone, Stephensons spudding it up.

Spin it as you like, the club did what the club needed to do, they were brave in the list cull that we did and low and behold, 3 years later we win the Premiership.

And I’ve only brought your club into it because I can.

 

[Cyclops]

Sounds like the return on investment we've gotten on Zac Williams so far now that he's finally found his position. At least that was only an FA signing.

Collingwood, sadly, will be fine. Like us too many players will freely sign with them for money and post-career opportunity. Naicos himself will be a draw for some players (the best always want to play with the best).

Reading this thread I thought I was in The Bay.

It as a whiff of it for sure. "Here's an equation, so sad".

Pies were too old in 2022, it took some dodgy umpiring to keep us from being the ones losing to the Cats in the granny. They were too old too apparently.

Pies were too old again in 2023 when we outlasted a far classier Lions to win the flag.

We're too old again this year and it looks like we might miss for a change.

Chris Scott has kept Geelong in the hunt for more than a decade with no bottoming out. He's such an effective coach it's given rise to salary cap rumours.

I hope our bloke is good enough to manage a similar run. Our admin hasn't been as consistent and we've lost the highly rated Wright, so maybe we will dip. However we've shown we can win a flag copying elements from Geelong and Richmond, I'd back the Pies to be back soon based on that rather we than doomsaying on the basis of quick maffs.

 

[Wickzki]

I hope our bloke is good enough to manage a similar run. Our admin hasn't been as consistent and we've lost the highly rated Wright, so maybe we will dip. However we've shown we can win a flag copying elements from Geelong and Richmond, I'd back the Pies to be back soon based on that rather we than doomsaying on the basis of quick maffs.

For Collingwood:

1. Find a quality KPD -- the biggest loss you've had this year, by a country mile, has been Murphy. Your defense looks at sea, Moore has taken on too much responsibility, etc.

2. Get a healthy and quality KPF -- whether that's on the list or not is TBD (i.e. can Mihocek get back to his best or is he on the way out?). You've lost games because you win the ball in the midfield then have no consistent marking target because your key talls have been in and out of the side.

3. Replace the mids as they age out.

4. Continue finding the cheap "money ball" role players who have a matching skill set to your requirements.

#1 and #2 are obviously much easier said than done. #3 can be bought on the market fairly comfortably most years.

Being Collingwood gives you a huge leg up.

 

[Percel]

Theyll likely make and win another granny like they do, they're never far away for long.

Have a look at the longest streaks without a win, they should be your focus point....start with my mob

 

[Jake98]

Theyll likely make and win another granny like they do, they're never far away for long.

Have a look at the longest streaks without a win, they should be your focus point....start with my mob

That's an extremely simplistic way of looking at it.

I could just as easily say a club with age demographics skewed so heavily to the older side can never compete for too long.

Obviously Collingwood did well to win the flag with an aging squad in 2023, but there is a dearth of young talent in their squad and the old players can't play elite football forever. Same goes for Geelong.

 

[MisterMarcus]

I love how Old Mate is literally just copy-pasting his shtick from the Geelong threads, just with the names changed…

 

[Percel]

That's an extremely simplistic way of looking at it.

I could just as easily say a club with age demographics skewed so heavily to the older side can never compete for too long.

Obviously Collingwood did well to win the flag with an aging squad in 2023, but there is a dearth of young talent in their squad and the old players can't play elite football forever. Same goes for Geelong.

You can keep banging that draft drum all day, but they will find a way.

Simplistic, but it's what they do. They find people, they are a big club, and they get there.

 

[Jake98]

It as a whiff of it for sure. "Here's an equation, so sad".

Pies were too old in 2022, it took some dodgy umpiring to keep us from being the ones losing to the Cats in the granny. They were too old too apparently.

Pies were too old again in 2023 when we outlasted a far classier Lions to win the flag.

We're too old again this year and it looks like we might miss for a change.

Chris Scott has kept Geelong in the hunt for more than a decade with no bottoming out. He's such an effective coach it's given rise to salary cap rumours.

I hope our bloke is good enough to manage a similar run. Our admin hasn't been as consistent and we've lost the highly rated Wright, so maybe we will dip. However we've shown we can win a flag copying elements from Geelong and Richmond, I'd back the Pies to be back soon based on that rather we than doomsaying on the basis of quick maffs.

Geelong were able to bring in Dangerfield and Cameron with the lure of country lifestyle. When has Collingwood traded in or signed a player with that kind of stature in the last 20 years? Even bringing in just one player of this caliber is difficult; your club made a big play for Tom Lynch in 2018 following a Grand Final appearance but couldn't even get that done.

If you're making top 4, winning finals or winning Grand Finals, you're not too old. If you're missing the finals with the oldest list in the AFL, then there is a very real argument that a club is too old. Even with Geelong making top 4 with an easy draw this year, I suspect they will be comfortably dispatched in finals because their midfield is miles off and they haven't added enough quality to their youth.

As for copying Richmond, you'd only want to copy them up to 2020. Copying their 2022 off-season is a one-way ticket to no man's land as you will see over the coming decade.

 

[beerbandit]

It doesn’t look like many are agreeing with you here.

Granted it’s Collingwood, so most will come in for the laughs and kick a boot in here and there, but I can guarantee by the vast majority thinks that most of what you have said is rubbish.

You are bagging a club who won the flag last year, wtf is wrong with you man!

 

[Cyclops]

Yes, your viewpoint is still extremely simplistic and demonstrates a lack of awareness. The exact same things were said about Hawthorn before spending a good 5 years at the bottom end of the ladder.

Look this thread is about Collingwood so let's not derail it.

I think Percel has quite a bit of insight. Big clubs like Colingwokd have a lot of soft power (eg the Leon Davis deal, the Buckley and Rocca deals) and we've leveraged that recently: for every Shulz overpayment (and it may be, too soon to tell though) there's a Hill Crisp style steal.

The resources to scout result in MSD and rookie finds few other clubs make.

It would be simplistic to pin a critique on draft picks alone.

 

[Dangerousfield]

So who are the Pies targets this trade period and how do they get the deals done?

 

[Jake98]

Look this thread is about Collingwood so let's not derail it.

I think Percel has quite a bit of insight. Big clubs like Colingwokd have a lot of soft power (eg the Leon Davis deal, the Buckley and Rocca deals) and we've leveraged that recently: for every Shulz overpayment (and it may be, too soon to tell though) there's a Hill Crisp style steal.

The resources to scout result in MSD and rookie finds few other clubs make.

It would be simplistic to pin a critique on draft picks alone.

I'm not derailing anything. The Hawthorn example simply disproves the notion that select clubs just don't bottom out for some reason. Again, people were saying the exact same things about Hawthorn back in 2016, and claimed to be vindicated by their 2018 top 4 finish.

As for big club leverage, I would like to see examples that aren't 20 years old.

Hill? I mean maybe. He wanted to go to Essendon a year earlier only for stingy Dodoro to not get it done.
Crisp was steak knives in the Beams deal and didn't want to leave Brisbane.

Getting Tom Lynch in 2018 would've been a great time to use the big club leverage, but you were competing with another big club leverage, and he chose Richmond. This further highlights how difficult it is to attract top players, even for a so-called big club.

At the end of the day, Collingwood's current group of players under-23 is concerning to say the least. Nobody outside of Daicos could be described with confidence as AFL-standard. Couple this predicament with the oldest squad in the league, and it's very reasonable to question the current direction of the club.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Gut the list, it’s rebuild time.

 

[beerbandit]

So who are the Pies targets this trade period and how do they get the deals done?

Not sure, but they’ll definitely be an interesting watch. Maybe they don’t do anything this trade period and try and re-generate the current crop and go hard in 2025 FA/trade period.

We’ve got another decent F/S showing promise in Mick McGuanes son, so that’s a bonus for future drafting.

 

[beerbandit]

Gut the list, it’s rebuild time.

It was only a matter of time before you popped in!!

 

[PhatBoy]

I swear even the flog-sock American sports shows don’t have anyone as obsessed with talking about drafts as certain people here

 

[adammania9]

Pies against the odds and with a massive dose of good luck fluke the 2023 flag.

Side that went 18-5, finished top with the highest % and won 3/3 finals massively dosed on luck by winning the flag?? At least front up and say any other side would have needed more luck than Collingwood did to win it

 

[wcv1475]

Fair enough.

But where to from here? Keep stocking up on older players?

Rebuild for next shot, might not be next year or even year after, but except for Richmond and Hawthorn which club in last 20yrs has really built a dynasty, i think none. Geelong 2011 - 2022, Sydney 2012 - ?, Collingwood 2010 - 2023 if Doggies can pull it off they are doing better than 3 sides listed

 

[Mr Meow]

That's an extremely simplistic way of looking at it.

I could just as easily say a club with age demographics skewed so heavily to the older side can never compete for too long.

Obviously Collingwood did well to win the flag with an aging squad in 2023, but there is a dearth of young talent in their squad and the old players can't play elite football forever. Same goes for Geelong.

The Pies will be fine mate, stop stressing about it.

Worry about the Tigers and what they have in front of them. Plenty of good draft picks to come, so "look at that youth" should satisfy you for the next 6 barren years.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes, your viewpoint is still extremely simplistic and demonstrates a lack of awareness. The exact same things were said about Hawthorn before spending a good 5 years at the bottom end of the ladder.

It's starting to look like another failed case from you I'm afraid.

Onto the next target.

 

[adammania9]

I don't blame the neutral fan for seeing an old team like Collingwood's sub-par 2024 season and blaming it on declining veterans. But it's not overly accurate - the oldies have held up their end of the bargain this year. Only Sidebottom has had a substantial decline compared to 2023. Howe has been better this year; Pendlebury, Elliott and Crisp more or less the same, Cox a minor decline. Hoskin-Elliott is better this year, and Mihocek similar albeit he's missed half of the year.

The decline has been in prime players that the club should reasonably expect to get back to better football next year. Moore, De Goey, Quaynor in particular are shadows of who they were last year. McStay has only played 5 games following an ACL. Tom Mitchell is part of the older brigade but couldn't return after just 6 games early in the year. He is by far our best first possession winner, and his defensive accountability is invaluable.

We'll see what the trade period has in store for Collingwood. Barring a terrible injury run next season, this is still a list fit to sit 5th-8th on the ladder. A nice piece or two via trade to assist the defence and/or midfield and an unearthed youngster taking off with a good run of footy could see this team contend next season.

Where to from here? It's pretty obvious. The club will go again next year and try to win a premiership. If unsuccessful, a thread like this is justified as the club will have numerous 30+ year olds out of contract, and the club will need to be active in free agency and trades to stay in contention.

 

[MisterMarcus]

The Pies will be fine mate, stop stressing about it.

Worry about the Tigers and what they have in front of them. Plenty of good draft picks to come, so "look at that youth" should satisfy you for the next 6 barren years.

Some serious "I'm depressed about the Tigers so I have to try to make everyone else feel depressed about their team too" vibes coming from this dude....

 

[Handsuper47]

they got a flag last year, they can afford to hang around the bottom for a while

 

[Brick Loosener]

Theyll likely make and win another granny like they do, they're never far away for long.

Have a look at the longest streaks without a win, they should be your focus point....start with my mob

North has won more flags in my life time than the Pies. So chin up mate, your mob is better.