Autopsy Collingwood: Where to from here?

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Ragging on a draft from 2020 for a club that won a comp in 2023 is like ragging on the losing bets of a gambler who still comes out in front. They’ve already won. Any failure of that draft doesn’t really matter. You’re only ‘supposed’ to win a flag every 18 years anyway, they’ve won 2 in the last 14 seasons before this one. If they go another decade without one, then you can say that they have been failing but by that stage the 2020 draft is irrelevant anyway as players picked from it would all be over 30 themselves.
 

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adammania9 said:
I don't blame the neutral fan for seeing an old team like Collingwood's sub-par 2024 season and blaming it on declining veterans. But it's not overly accurate - the oldies have held up their end of the bargain this year. Only Sidebottom has had a substantial decline compared to 2023. Howe has been better this year; Pendlebury, Elliott and Crisp more or less the same, Cox a minor decline. Hoskin-Elliott is better this year, and Mihocek similar albeit he's missed half of the year.

The decline has been in prime players that the club should reasonably expect to get back to better football next year. Moore, De Goey, Quaynor in particular are shadows of who they were last year. McStay has only played 5 games following an ACL. Tom Mitchell is part of the older brigade but couldn't return after just 6 games early in the year. He is by far our best first possession winner, and his defensive accountability is invaluable.

We'll see what the trade period has in store for Collingwood. Barring a terrible injury run next season, this is still a list fit to sit 5th-8th on the ladder. A nice piece or two via trade to assist the defence and/or midfield and an unearthed youngster taking off with a good run of footy could see this team contend next season.

Where to from here? It's pretty obvious. The club will go again next year and try to win a premiership. If unsuccessful, a thread like this is justified as the club will have numerous 30+ year olds out of contract, and the club will need to be active in free agency and trades to stay in contention.
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It doesn't matter who is specifically to blame for this season, and I'm not blaming any single player. At the end of the day Collingwood have the oldest list in the AFL, most if not all of the old players will be retained and will be yet another year older the following year. It is perfectly reasonable to question whether you can challenge for Premierships with such an old squad. You say this season it was "only" Sidebottom who declined but in 2025 it could very easily be more.

The main problem I am highlighting in this thread is the dearth of young talent coming through. In terms of under-23s it's Daicos and bananas.
 
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nahnah said:
it is gonna be devastating in 2 years time when all our over 24 year olds immediately retire/become cooked and we have done 0 recruiting because thats how the AFL works
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Have you looked at your own club's age demographics?
 
nahnah said:
Yes, a few years ago we had a big hole in the current 24-26 age group. We added Bobby, Lipinski and found players in Murphy, J Daicos, McCreery etc Because there is a hole now doesnt mean there will be one in 2 years
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The same Lipinski who Collingwood fans are regularly criticizing and demanding be dropped? Murphy is now retired.
Collingwood will have 11 players 30+ next year including a handful in their mid 30s. Couple that with the dearth of talent in the under-23 bracket and you have cause for concern at the very least. Even McRae admitted age demographic needs to be addressed, which makes it all the more strange he's likely to retain all of the older players for next season, even Mason Cox.
 
Jake98 said:
The same Lipinski who Collingwood fans are regularly criticizing and demanding be dropped? Murphy is now retired.
Collingwood will have 11 players 30+ next year including a handful in their mid 30s. Couple that with the dearth of talent in the under-23 bracket and you have cause for concern at the very least. Even McRae admitted age demographic needs to be addressed, which makes it all the more strange he's likely to retain all of the older players for next season, even Mason Cox.
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It will be interesting to see how many of the delistings will be over 25 and how many under 25. Could Pies field a team next year with an average age of over 30.
 
Jake98 said:
The same Lipinski who Collingwood fans are regularly criticizing and demanding be dropped? Murphy is now retired.
Collingwood will have 11 players 30+ next year including a handful in their mid 30s. Couple that with the dearth of talent in the under-23 bracket and you have cause for concern at the very least. Even McRae admitted age demographic needs to be addressed, which makes it all the more strange he's likely to retain all of the older players for next season, even Mason Cox.
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Murphy being retired wasn't my point thats just an unfortunate event that happened after, we had a massive hole, fixed it and won a flag with that age group actually being a relative strength

yes im not saying the age group doesnt need to be addressed i just think saying there is gonna be a massive immediate drop off is just wrong . If you look at our recent form, the evenness of the comp i dont get why we shouldnt be trying to win another flag next year.

The 4 teams that have contested the last 2 grand finals:
Brisbane have 9 players over 30, i would argue they rely on 35 year old Zorko more than Collingwood rely on Pendlebury, Sidebottom etc
Geelong have 11 players over 30
Swans have 9 players over 30
 
nahnah said:
Murphy being retired wasn't my point thats just an unfortunate event that happened after, we had a massive hole, fixed it and won a flag with that age group actually being a relative strength

yes im not saying the age group doesnt need to be addressed i just think saying there is gonna be a massive immediate drop off is just wrong . If you look at our recent form, the evenness of the comp i dont get why we shouldnt be trying to win another flag next year.

The 4 teams that have contested the last 2 grand finals:
Brisbane have 9 players over 30, i would argue they rely on 35 year old Zorko more than Collingwood rely on Pendlebury, Sidebottom etc
Geelong have 11 players over 30
Swans have 9 players over 30
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I didn't say there would be an "immediate" drop off, but with so many old players and so little quality youth, I suspect Collingwood are not primed to challenge for Premierships anytime soon, and urgently need to replenish their youth.

You cite Brisbane as an example of an aging list and picked out Zorko as especially influential. What you didn't mention is that two of those 30+ year olds are fodder (Darcy Fort and Jarryd Lyons) and one of them missed the whole year with an ACL (McCarthy). Only six of those players are in their best 22 this year. But the real difference between Brisbane and Collingwood is in youth: Kai Lohmann, Darcy Wilmot, Will Ashcroft, Jaspa Fletcher, Logan Morris and another A-Grade Ashcroft on the way. Even with some important players like Lachie Neale and Charlie Cameron in the latter stages of their career, they have more than enough quality coming up their youth ranks.

Geelong have the exact same problem as Collingwood.

Sydney, like Brisbane, have plenty of quality youth coming through. Warner and Gulden are two of the best players in the competition and they're only 23 and 22.
 
Jake98 said:
Sydney, like Brisbane, have plenty of quality youth coming through. Warner and Gulden are two of the best players in the competition and they're only 23 and 22.
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Nick Daicos is the best player in the comp and is 21 + Chad Warner doesnt meet your under 23 hard cutoff

Jake98 said:
I didn't say there would be an "immediate" drop off, but with so many old players and so little quality youth, I suspect Collingwood are not primed to challenge for Premierships anytime soon, and urgently need to replenish their youth.

You cite Brisbane as an example of an aging list and picked out Zorko as especially influential. What you didn't mention is that two of those 30+ year olds are fodder (Darcy Fort and Jarryd Lyons) and one of them missed the whole year with an ACL (McCarthy). Only six of those players are in their best 22 this year. But the real difference between Brisbane and Collingwood is in youth: Kai Lohmann, Darcy Wilmot, Will Ashcroft, Jaspa Fletcher, Logan Morris and another A-Grade Ashcroft on the way. Even with some important players like Lachie Neale and Charlie Cameron in the latter stages of their career, they have more than enough quality coming up their youth ranks.

Geelong have the exact same problem as Collingwood.

Sydney, like Brisbane, have plenty of quality youth coming through. Warner and Gulden are two of the best players in the competition and they're only 23 and 22.
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Your arguments are not consistent and you are using very arbitrary cut offs to determine things. We didnt have mitchell the entire year so how is that different to Lions not have McCarthy?
 
They were worthy premiers last year (you can't win one unless you're good). At the same time, they were never that great. Collingwood's flag - including the grand final itself - was built on the back of winning close games and comebacks. It's not sustainable. If you're a truly great team, your opponents aren't in a position to win at the last minute - you blow them away or at least win comfortably.

Squiggle is just one imperfect measure, but it has the 2023 Pies as effectively the weakest premiers of the last 20 years:

Screenshot_20240821-110824.jpg
 

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nahnah said:
Nick Daicos is the best player in the comp and is 21 + Chad Warner doesnt meet your under 23 hard cutoff
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Nick Daicos isn't the best player in the competition at all. There is a reason the Bont upstaged him when Collingwood played the Dogs.
I picked two examples for my post but we also have Braeden Campbell, Logan McDonald, James Rowebottom, James Jordan and Caiden Cleary. We have an academy that's always capable of producing quality youth at a steady rate too. It's night and day compared to Collingwood right now.
nahnah said:
Your arguments are not consistent and you are using very arbitrary cut offs to determine things. We didnt have mitchell the entire year so how is that different to Lions not have McCarthy?
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Who cares? You're nitpicking over single players now and ignoring the main point. Yes Brisbane have old players but they also have serious quality among their youth ranks. Lincoln McCarthy or Tom Mitchell alone are very small parts of the big picture.
 
Rotayjay said:
They were worthy premiers last year (you can't win one unless you're good). At the same time, they were never that great. Collingwood's flag - including the grand final itself - was built on the back of winning close games and comebacks. It's not sustainable. If you're a truly great team, your opponents aren't in a position to win at the last minute - you blow them away or at least win comfortably.

Squiggle is just one imperfect measure, but it has the 2023 Pies as effectively the weakest premiers of the last 20 years:

View attachment 2086273
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This is a VERY interesting graph, in that it rates Geelong 2007, Collingwood 2010 and Geelong 2011 as by far the strongest premiership teams in recent times.

Some may refer to that as a 'Super Era'.

Conversely, the Richmond 2017, 2019 and 2020 fall in the weakest six or so teams over the same time period.

Some may refer to that as a 'Weak Era'.

Thoughts Mr Meow, Meteoric Rise and Cleansweep17?
 
Fadge said:
This is a VERY interesting graph, in that it rates Geelong 2007, Collingwood 2010 and Geelong 2011 as by far the strongest premiership teams in recent times.

Some may refer to that as a 'Super Era'.

Conversely, the Richmond 2017, 2019 and 2020 fall in the weakest six or so teams over the same time period.

Some may refer to that as a 'Weak Era'.

Thoughts Mr Meow, Meteoric Rise and Cleansweep17?
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Richmond 2017,19,20 had the strongest combined Grand Final percentage(222%) of any team to play multiple Grand Finals in the 127 year history of the competition. The "super era" teams simply would not have been able to score against them, nor stop Dusty from tearing them to shreds at the other end. This was the only dynasty where all teams competed on level terms, ie full funded football departments. There were also 18 fully mature teams in the competition.

Hawthorn 2013-15 won Grand Finals against opponents who performed better in those finals series than the opponents of any other dynasty team this century.

Brisbane dynasty team won 3 Grand Finals on their opponent's home ground.

The "super era" is in reality the weakest era in which any dynasty team this century operated, with under funded footy departments combined with teams known to have tanked.

Collingwood 2010 were not only not a 3 flag genuine dynasty like 4 teams have achieved this century, they actually drew a Grand Final against a very average Grand Finalist, and they did not even win 2 Premierships, let alone 3.

Your super era teams were famous for not losing home and away games to some of the weakest opponents to ever play in the competition.

No more than that needs to be said on the matter.
 
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Meteoric Rise said:
Richmond 2017,19,20 had the strongest combined Grand Final percentage(222%) of any team to play multiple Grand Finals in the 127 year history of the competition. The "super era" teams simply would not have been able to score against them, nor stop Dusty from tearing them to shreds at the other end. This was the only dynasty where all teams competed on level terms, ie full funded football departments. There were also 18 fully mature teams in the competition.

Hawthorn 2013-15 won Grand Finals against opponents who performed better in those finals series than the opponents of any other dynasty team this century.

Brisbane dynasty team won 3 Grand Finals on their opponent's home ground.

The "super era" is in reality the weakest era in which any dynasty team this century operated, with under funded footy departments combined with teams known to have tanked.

Collingwood 2010 were not only not a 3 flag genuine dynasty like 4 teams have achieved this century, they actually drew a Grand Final against a very average Grand Finalist, and they did not even win 2 Premierships, let alone 3.

Your super era teams were famous for not losing home and away games to some of the weakest opponents to ever play in the competition.

No more than that need to be said on the matter.
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Sorry, you can't argue with The Squiggle!
 
Don’t agree with the OP.
I think Collingwoods best is very hard to beat and probably will be agai if they can stay healthy.

They don’t seem to have alotve depth in KP down the spine… no club would say no to Petracca but I think they need a Pack splitting fwd.
Or a Naughton type.
Mcstay is looking good but he’s never kicked 30 in a season and he’s played 175 games.
Howes come good again but they’re having to slip him forward to try and pinch goals.

But having said all that , that’s exactly the problem I thought they had last year and they won the flag.
I’d expect a higher finish next season all things being equal
 
Rotayjay said:
They were worthy premiers last year (you can't win one unless you're good). At the same time, they were never that great. Collingwood's flag - including the grand final itself - was built on the back of winning close games and comebacks. It's not sustainable. If you're a truly great team, your opponents aren't in a position to win at the last minute - you blow them away or at least win comfortably.

Squiggle is just one imperfect measure, but it has the 2023 Pies as effectively the weakest premiers of the last 20 years:

View attachment 2086273
Click to expand...
“Not sustainable”. Ahhhh bigfooty’s favourite saying

In 2022 it wasn’t sustainable
In 2023 it wasn’t sustainable
In finals it won’t be sustainable

Until it was

We literally won a premiership, chief. How was it not sustainable?
 
adammania9 said:
“Not sustainable”. Ahhhh bigfooty’s favourite saying

In 2022 it wasn’t sustainable
In 2023 it wasn’t sustainable
In finals it won’t be sustainable

Until it was

We literally won a premiership, chief. How was it not sustainable?
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He meant 'Not sustainable over three seasons particularly if they get hammered by injury in the third season'...
 
Really interesting situation they find themselves in. They are actually quite an old team and still depend heavily on the likes of Pendelbury, Sidebottom, Howe, Mihocek, Cox, Hoskin-Elliot, Crisp etc. The Daicos brothers and Hill are the exception to the list trend rather than the rule.

Now is their window. Finishing outside the eight when their list are not going to get any better from here, is far from ideal. I predict the beginning of a gradual spiral down the ladder next year.
 
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Autopsy Collingwood: Where to from here?

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