Autopsy Collingwood: Where to from here?

[Jake98]

“Not sustainable”. Ahhhh bigfooty’s favourite saying

In 2022 it wasn’t sustainable
In 2023 it wasn’t sustainable
In finals it won’t be sustainable

Until it was

Or perhaps until it wasn't.

We literally won a premiership, chief. How was it not sustainable?

Because players get older and begin to slow down. It's especially difficult to sustain following commitments to questionable list management.

He meant 'Not sustainable over three seasons particularly if they get hammered by injury in the third season'...

Sorry, but injuries are not a valid excuse. Every team has injuries. Brisbane got obliterated by ACL injuries early in the season but they're still right up there. If anything, Collingwood had a lot of luck with injuries in 2022 and 2023. You think it's reasonable to expect less injuries in a year where half your team is over 30?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Collingwood 2022-23-24 combined percentage in home and away football:

For 5768 points
Against 5336 points

108%

This speaks to an upper mid range team who needed absolutely everything their way to dead set scrape the weakest flag ever.

Their finals % in the same period is roughly 105%.

So this is not a great team, it is merely a strongly competitive team. I heard McReery effectively say post match the other day he is sick of having to chase backsides to make the golden child look good. So there is clear discontent there.

In 2025 they are likely to commence the season with 9 players over the age of 31 in their best 23. And 4 of those will be over 34.

They no longer get the benefit of paying Daicos rookie wages. They set themselves for finals in 2024....but forgot to qualify for finals. Their 1 wood, umpires, is trending downwards, ranked AFL #5 for free kick differential 2022, AFL #6 2023, AFL #8 2024. They have been ranked AFL #1 free kick differential in the last 10 minutes of tight games throughout however, so that is their last remaining hope.

 

[Fadge]

Collingwood 2022-23-24 combined percentage in home and away football:

For 5768 points
Against 5336 points

108%

This speaks to an upper mid range team who needed absolutely everything their way to dead set scrape the weakest flag ever.

Their finals % in the same period is roughly 105%.

So this is not a great team, it is merely a strongly competitive team. I heard McReery effectively say post match the other day he is sick of having to chase backsides to make the golden child look good. So there is clear discontent there.

In 2025 they are likely to commence the season with 9 players over the age of 31 in their best 23. And 4 of those will be over 34.

They no longer get the benefit of paying Daicos rookie wages. They set themselves for finals in 2024....but forgot to qualify for finals. Their 1 wood, umpires, is trending downwards, ranked AFL #5 for free kick differential 2022, AFL #6 2023, AFL #8 2024. They have been ranked AFL #1 free kick differential in the last 10 minutes of tight games throughout however, so that is their last remaining hope.

Obsessed.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Really interesting situation they find themselves in. They are actually quite an old team and still depend heavily on the likes of Pendelbury, Sidebottom, Howe, Mihocek, Cox, Hoskin-Elliot, Adams, Crisp etc.

Adams got traded to Sydney last year.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Their highly CEO Graham Wright decided he's not returning.

Graeme Wright was the footy boss (not CEO), but the point still stands.

 

[beerbandit]

Nick Daicos isn't the best player in the competition at all. There is a reason the Bont upstaged him when Collingwood played the Dogs.
I picked two examples for my post but we also have Braeden Campbell, Logan McDonald, James Rowebottom, James Jordan and Caiden Cleary. We have an academy that's always capable of producing quality youth at a steady rate too. It's night and day compared to Collingwood right now.

Who cares? You're nitpicking over single players now and ignoring the main point. Yes Brisbane have old players but they also have serious quality among their youth ranks. Lincoln McCarthy or Tom Mitchell alone are very small parts of the big picture.

This is your opinion, many disagree with you here.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Where to? nowhere will aim to be a top 8 side in 2025.

Bled the stone dry from 2022-2023 what more can you ask for?

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Most will go off to a retirement village.

 

[adammania9]

Collingwood 2022-23-24 combined percentage in home and away football:

For 5768 points
Against 5336 points

108%

This speaks to an upper mid range team who needed absolutely everything their way to dead set scrape the weakest flag ever.

Their finals % in the same period is roughly 105%.

So this is not a great team, it is merely a strongly competitive team. I heard McReery effectively say post match the other day he is sick of having to chase backsides to make the golden child look good. So there is clear discontent there.

In 2025 they are likely to commence the season with 9 players over the age of 31 in their best 23. And 4 of those will be over 34.

They no longer get the benefit of paying Daicos rookie wages. They set themselves for finals in 2024....but forgot to qualify for finals. Their 1 wood, umpires, is trending downwards, ranked AFL #5 for free kick differential 2022, AFL #6 2023, AFL #8 2024. They have been ranked AFL #1 free kick differential in the last 10 minutes of tight games throughout however, so that is their last remaining hope.

An incredible achievement to win the flag indeed. Hopefully Sydney can get to our level eventually

 

[Cleansweep17]

Collingwood 2022-23-24 combined percentage in home and away football:

For 5768 points
Against 5336 points

108%

This speaks to an upper mid range team who needed absolutely everything their way to dead set scrape the weakest flag ever.

Their finals % in the same period is roughly 105%.

So this is not a great team, it is merely a strongly competitive team. I heard McReery effectively say post match the other day he is sick of having to chase backsides to make the golden child look good. So there is clear discontent there.

In 2025 they are likely to commence the season with 9 players over the age of 31 in their best 23. And 4 of those will be over 34.

They no longer get the benefit of paying Daicos rookie wages. They set themselves for finals in 2024....but forgot to qualify for finals. Their 1 wood, umpires, is trending downwards, ranked AFL #5 for free kick differential 2022, AFL #6 2023, AFL #8 2024. They have been ranked AFL #1 free kick differential in the last 10 minutes of tight games throughout however, so that is their last remaining hope.

So true MR.

I think it’s tragic we’ve seen the best of Naicos already at Collingwood. He should move clubs cause they are just weighing him down.

I’d even prefer him in Geelong colours so he can at least contribute to the game.

 

[Rich01]

They will go all in for one last tilt at the flag.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they sold the farm for Petracca to do so.

Then they will have to retire at least half a dozen of them at the end of the year.

Let’s hope it pays off for them.
But this has Clarko/Hardwick attempt to rebuild before the cliff written all over it.

Will be interesting to see if this pays off for them.

 

[beerbandit]

Many Collingwood supporters like yourself, yes.

Why do you say Collingwood supporters?

He’s widely considered the best in the game.

If you were to attend Collingwood games you would hear opposition fans constantly talk about how he is the best in the game.

Please quote this up as you please, you seem to be really good at it for a debutant.

 

[BF Tiger]

This is a VERY interesting graph, in that it rates Geelong 2007, Collingwood 2010 and Geelong 2011 as by far the strongest premiership teams in recent times.

Some may refer to that as a 'Super Era'.

Conversely, the Richmond 2017, 2019 and 2020 fall in the weakest six or so teams over the same time period.

Some may refer to that as a 'Weak Era'.

Thoughts Mr Meow, Meteoric Rise and Cleansweep17?

Just Richmond's luck to be the weakest dynasty team ever. Would so much prefer to be recognised as a great preliminasty team, winning preliminaryships in a "stronger era", but taking home no silverware.

Face it Fadge, Richmond were the last great team.

2021 premiers and runners-up have not won a final since.
2022 premiers and runners-up have not won a final since.
2023 premiers have not made finals.

Since Richmond stormed the league it's been nothing but mediocrity.

 

[Fadge]

Just Richmond's luck to be the weakest dynasty team ever. Would so much prefer to be recognised as a great preliminasty team, winning preliminaryships in a "stronger era", but taking home no silverware.

Face it Fadge, Richmond were the last great team.

2021 premiers and runners-up have not won a final since.
2022 premiers and runners-up have not won a final since.
2023 premiers have not made finals.

Since Richmond stormed the league it's been nothing but mediocrity.

This is a Collingwood thread.

In case you were unaware, Richmond have returned to irrelevancy.

 

[Rotayjay]

“Not sustainable”. Ahhhh bigfooty’s favourite saying

In 2022 it wasn’t sustainable
In 2023 it wasn’t sustainable
In finals it won’t be sustainable

Until it was

We literally won a premiership, chief. How was it not sustainable?

It had to come undone eventually. Enjoy the flag though - we stuffed our chance up.

 

[Rotayjay]

And if you think I'm getting satisfaction from Collingwood's decline because of our losing streak against them, I am. It is absolutely infuriating as an opposition supporter to watch a team beat you by less than a goal four times in a row.

 

[BF Tiger]

This is a Collingwood thread.

In case you were unaware, Richmond have returned to irrelevancy.

This you?

This is a VERY interesting graph, in that it rates Geelong 2007, Collingwood 2010 and Geelong 2011 as by far the strongest premiership teams in recent times.

Some may refer to that as a 'Super Era'.

Conversely, the Richmond 2017, 2019 and 2020 fall in the weakest six or so teams over the same time period.

Some may refer to that as a 'Weak Era'.

Thoughts Mr Meow, Meteoric Rise and Cleansweep17?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

They will go all in for one last tilt at the flag.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they sold the farm for Petracca to do so.

Then they will have to retire at least half a dozen of them at the end of the year.

Let’s hope it pays off for them.
But this has Clarko/Hardwick attempt to rebuild before the cliff written all over it.

Will be interesting to see if this pays off for them.

Its impossible for them to be in a position to get Trac unless they give up a Daicos or Cameron

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Its impossible for them to be in a position to get Trac unless they give up a Daicos or Cameron

Petracca isn't worth it anyway

Plenty more spuds out there that we can turn into premiership players, we'll be fine

 

[Reg Grundy35]

Did you forget about your club drafting the likes of Dale Thomas, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Beams, Ben Reid etc? Once upon a time they were your under-23s, and helped deliver a flag in 2010. A couple of them are still around, and helped win a flag in 2023. I think it's fair to say having a strong contingent of under-23s can go a long way for both short and long-term success.

Once upon a time Geelong's under-23s consisted of Bartel, Corey, Ablett, Kelly, Enright, Chapman, Johnson. Think it's safe to say that went a long way in establishing long-term sustained success.

A plethora of top talent in the 28-29 range? If that were the case, then perhaps Collingwood would've made top 8 this season. In this age bracket I see De Goey, Moore, Cameron and Maynard. I wouldn't call that a plethora, unless you want to sell us on the value of Oleg Markov and Billy Frampton.

Sure, Nick Daicos is a quality player, but just like Sheezel at North Melbourne, there is only so much he can do in a team with limited quality.

I know you're keen to play down the significance of an under-23 contingent, but when you have 11 players in their 30s in 2025, including some in their mid-30s, generally most clubs would want a sufficient quantity of good young players ready to take their spots. The 28-29 year olds aren't going to replace the likes of Pendlebury or Sidebottom because they're already in the team. This is precisely where the value of good under-23s lies.

It is silly to think having a lot of salary cap space will provision for the current shortage of young talent. There are plenty of clubs with a lot of cap space who are much better positioned to challenge for Premierships short & long term. It's extremely difficult to convince even one high quality player to join, let alone 6-8 Collingwood need to replace the old guys.

wow you've put some time into analysing an opposition team here!. Did you do a similar analysis after the swans last GF humiliation? Doubt I could be stuffed either.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Season or two at the rear end of the ladder while drafting and developing some ripper later picks and getting a gun first rounder.

Prelim/Flag Shot in 2027.

 

[Fadge]

Because Collingwood supporters like yourself are typically the ones who believe this.

By Collingwood supporters.


If you were to attend Bulldogs games you would hear opposition fans constantly talk about how Bont is the best in the game.
If you were to attend Carlton games you would hear opposition fans constantly talk about how Cripps is the best in the game.
If you were to attend Sydney games you would hear opposition fans constantly talk about how Heeney is the best in the game.

Not very good at arguing this point, are you?

I've never heard or read anyone, anywhere suggesting Cripps or Heeney are the best players in the game.

Having the best seasons in 2024? Sure.

But Bont has been regularly regarded as the best player in the game for the past four years, with the likes of Jeremy Cameron and Christian Petracca thrown into that discussion for short periods.

But since the mid point of 2023, it has consistently been Bont or Daicos.

 

[Madblue]

I've never heard or read anyone, anywhere suggesting Cripps or Heeney are the best players in the game.

Having the best seasons in 2024? Sure.

But Bont has been regularly regarded as the best player in the game for the past four years, with the likes of Jeremy Cameron and Christian Petracca thrown into that discussion for short periods.

But since the mid point of 2023, it has consistently been Bont or Daicos.

Cripps has been elite for years now

 

[Fadge]

Cripps has been elite for years now

He has.

But share an article or video where anyone has rated him as the best player in the comp (not from a Carlton nuffy).

I'm waiting.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Coleman Medallist power ranks his top 10 AFL players ahead of Round 24

See the updated list.

www.sen.com.au