Autopsy Collingwood: Where to from here?

[Meteoric Rise]

Which team has won 2 flags in 70 odd years ? The bulldogs ? Sydney ?

What on earth are you talking about?

 

[Pistol Night]

What on earth are you talking about?

**** me that's ironic

 

[Meteoric Rise]

**** me that's ironic

When an ironic statement is expected, it is not ironic.

And you expected my post.

 

[Gavin Excell]

It is, kind of.

The older list are closer to the top, whilst the youngest lists are closer to the bottom.

The last few premiers have all been at the top end of the age bracket
I

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The last few premiers have all been at the top end of the age bracket
I

Recent Grand Final winning teams....


2024 Lions ave age 26yrs 6mo.
2023 Magpies 27yrs 8mo.
2022 Cats 28yrs 7mo.
2021 Demons 24yrs 10mo.
2020 Tigers 27yrs 1mo.
2019 Tigers 26yrs 6mo.
2018 Eagles 26yrs 3mo.
2017 Tigers 25yrs 1mo.
2016 Bulldogs 24yrs 5mo.
2015 Hawks 27yrs 10mo.
2014 Hawks 26yrs 10mo.
2013 Hawks 26yrs 9mo.

12 seasons.

>28+ x 1

>27<28 x 3

>26<27 x 5

>25<26 x 1

<25 x 2

The average is around 26 years 6 months.

We can see the highest incidence of flag winning teams over a decent recent sample comes from 26yo teams.

Only 3 of the last 9 Premiers have been older than 26yrs 6mo. average age.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Recent Grand Final winning teams....


2024 Lions ave age 26yrs 6mo.
2023 Magpies 27yrs 8mo.
2022 Cats 28yrs 7mo.
2021 Demons 24yrs 10mo.
2020 Tigers 27yrs 1mo.
2019 Tigers 26yrs 6mo.
2018 Eagles 26yrs 3mo.
2017 Tigers 25yrs 1mo.
2016 Bulldogs 24yrs 5mo.
2015 Hawks 27yrs 10mo.
2014 Hawks 26yrs 10mo.
2013 Hawks 26yrs 9mo.

12 seasons.

>28+ x 1

>27<28 x 3

>26<27 x 5

>25<26 x 1

<25 x 2

The average is around 26 years 6 months.

We can see the highest incidence of flag winning teams over a decent recent sample comes from 26yo teams.


There have been as many flag winning teams 25yo or younger as there have been that were 27yo or older.

Only 3 of the last 9 Premiers have been older than 26yrs 6mo. average age.

Yes as I said
The most recent premiers have been (4 of last 5) older

 

[Fadge]

Yes as I said
The most recent premiers have been (4 of last 5) older

Also interestingly, the two young premiership teams barely won a final in the multiple years either side of their premiership year...

Read into that what you will.

 

[boncer34]

Recent Grand Final winning teams....


2024 Lions ave age 26yrs 6mo.
2023 Magpies 27yrs 8mo.
2022 Cats 28yrs 7mo.
2021 Demons 24yrs 10mo.
2020 Tigers 27yrs 1mo.
2019 Tigers 26yrs 6mo.
2018 Eagles 26yrs 3mo.
2017 Tigers 25yrs 1mo.
2016 Bulldogs 24yrs 5mo.
2015 Hawks 27yrs 10mo.
2014 Hawks 26yrs 10mo.
2013 Hawks 26yrs 9mo.

12 seasons.

>28+ x 1

>27<28 x 3

>26<27 x 5

>25<26 x 1

<25 x 2

The average is around 26 years 6 months.

We can see the highest incidence of flag winning teams over a decent recent sample comes from 26yo teams.


There have been as many flag winning teams 25yo or younger as there have been that were 27yo or older.

Only 3 of the last 9 Premiers have been older than 26yrs 6mo. average age.

Walk me through your maths.

Coz 1 + 3 doesn't equal 1 + 2 to me.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yes as I said
The most recent premiers have been (4 of last 5) older

Only 3 of the last 5 but more tellingly 3 of the last 9 teams have been older tha 26yrs 6mo. average age. And 26y 6m is the medium term average age of Premiership teams.

There is no clear pattern yet established as to whether older teams(say over 27yo average age) are to dominate Premierships. 2 of the last 4 are older. 3 of the last 6. It could as easily prove to be an anomaly.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Walk me through your maths.

Coz 1 + 3 doesn't equal 1 + 2 to me.

Good spot, have edited.

 

[Arr0w]

Recent Grand Final winning teams....


2024 Lions ave age 26yrs 6mo.
2023 Magpies 27yrs 8mo.
2022 Cats 28yrs 7mo.
2021 Demons 24yrs 10mo.
2020 Tigers 27yrs 1mo.
2019 Tigers 26yrs 6mo.
2018 Eagles 26yrs 3mo.
2017 Tigers 25yrs 1mo.
2016 Bulldogs 24yrs 5mo.
2015 Hawks 27yrs 10mo.
2014 Hawks 26yrs 10mo.
2013 Hawks 26yrs 9mo.

12 seasons.

>28+ x 1

>27<28 x 3

>26<27 x 5

>25<26 x 1

<25 x 2

The average is around 26 years 6 months.

We can see the highest incidence of flag winning teams over a decent recent sample comes from 26yo teams.

Only 3 of the last 9 Premiers have been older than 26yrs 6mo. average age.

So, are you saying the Pies are too old or is their age profile still in the window?

I think they "should" make the bottom half of the 8

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So, are you saying the Pies are too old or is their age profile still in the window?

I think they "should" make the bottom half of the 8

I think the last dozen years has shown pretty clearly any average age 24-28yo range "can" win a flag.

No team above 27yo ave age has backed up with a subsequent flag in close proximity. I think that applies to the whole history of the competition. So Collingwood would have to break new ground in that regard to win a flag in the near future.

There seems to be a huge shift in sport generally, & in AFL specifically, towards older players. In 1962 only 4 players above 30 played in the whole competition. In 2024 that figure was an all-time high of 110 players over 30 who played AFL games. As we can see from the list I provided, Cats, Magpies, Tigers, Hawks have all won flags with teams averaging above 27yo in the last 10 years. Tigers & Hawks were winning the 3rd of their respective dynasty flags. Those were constructed as very good teams who were successful when younger, but were still good enough to win flags as they got old.

Cats 22 & Pies 23 are very different. Those teams were constructed in the hope of winning their first flags when already old in historic terms - & it worked well enough to win a flag each so far. If we see teams costructed this way winning multiple flags then I think that will be final confirmation the game has changed.

The other interesting thing we see is in the Free Agency era we are seeing teams like Carlton & Hawthorn enter what look like traditional rebuilds investing in youth but by the time they come to prominence in terms of being a realistic flag threat they are already averaging 26yo or older. They are at that part of the age spectrum because they add so many mature players with previous AFL experience while they are rebuilding.

It would be brilliant to see a team emerge with a much younger average age who wins multiple flags to maybe reverse some of this trend. Melbourne looked a huge chance after 2021 but obviously things have gone wrong there.

Collingwood by traditional measures appear to have been fortunate to win a flag with their current list. I am not expecting them to win a second flag. They will probably give some cheek during the season at points but they could finish top 4 or miss the 8 without shocking me. So much comes down to luck in season now for all of the teams who have lists capable of contending.

 

[Osho]

It would be brilliant to see a team emerge with a much younger average age who wins multiple flags to maybe reverse some of this trend.

RFC in 2029!

 

[Corn Cobbers]

RFC in 2029!

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[Meteoric Rise]

RFC in 2029!

Roar!

 

[JustaBattler]

I think the last dozen years has shown pretty clearly any average age 24-28yo range "can" win a flag.

No team above 27yo ave age has backed up with a subsequent flag in close proximity. I think that applies to the whole history of the competition. So Collingwood would have to break new ground in that regard to win a flag in the near future.

There seems to be a huge shift in sport generally, & in AFL specifically, towards older players. In 1962 only 4 players above 30 played in the whole competition. In 2024 that figure was an all-time high of 110 players over 30 who played AFL games. As we can see from the list I provided, Cats, Magpies, Tigers, Hawks have all won flags with teams averaging above 27yo in the last 10 years. Tigers & Hawks were winning the 3rd of their respective dynasty flags. Those were constructed as very good teams who were successful when younger, but were still good enough to win flags as they got old.

Cats 22 & Pies 23 are very different. Those teams were constructed in the hope of winning their first flags when already old in historic terms - & it worked well enough to win a flag each so far. If we see teams costructed this way winning multiple flags then I think that will be final confirmation the game has changed.

The other interesting thing we see is in the Free Agency era we are seeing teams like Carlton & Hawthorn enter what look like traditional rebuilds investing in youth but by the time they come to prominence in terms of being a realistic flag threat they are already averaging 26yo or older. They are at that part of the age spectrum because they add so many mature players with previous AFL experience while they are rebuilding.

It would be brilliant to see a team emerge with a much younger average age who wins multiple flags to maybe reverse some of this trend. Melbourne looked a huge chance after 2021 but obviously things have gone wrong there.

Collingwood by traditional measures appear to have been fortunate to win a flag with their current list. I am not expecting them to win a second flag. They will probably give some cheek during the season at points but they could finish top 4 or miss the 8 without shocking me. So much comes down to luck in season now for all of the teams who have lists capable of contending.

Maybe better player management combined with rules designed to make the game less contact in overall terms promotes greater longevity.

and yep - luck is (always) a fortune.

The difference betwen most average AFL players these days is fast beocming which of them can cope wit the running demands of the game - once a player is developed and proven to be able to handle the training and in game runnin loads - they become a 'safer' bet than younger kids with promise.

 

[Osho]

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