Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

[M Malice]

The protocol is to quarantine anyone who has been in contact with COVID19 for a 3 week period. This course of action is definitely warranted especially considering how contagious it would be within a club environment.

With such a long incubation period before symptoms show for some people simply quarantining one player in a club is a very dangerous action to take.

Should the season be cancelled and be done with it, do we start closing down bowls clubs, RSLs, what about large gatherings of people eg. weddings, funerals?

Anyway I'm off to my own large gathering now... Hot Yoga.... I'll be back.

 

[martinson]

You may be right, but I'm not going full doomsday mode just yet, at the moment I'm more worried about my 81 year old mother being hit by a bus/car on her daily walk than catching Corona at the local supermarket.

Yeah sure. But Governments will put protocols in place and as soon as someone in the team has it the team goes in to lockdown.Simple.

Btw your 81 year old grandmother shouldn't really be going anywhere where there's a crowd of people . People said that was silly in other countries, now it's just accepted due to the high percentage of older people who get severely impacted if they catch it.

 

[martinson]

Sorry, when you said "the world has gone mad" I thought you meant the precautions actually being taken by the world - not the response of talkback radio commentators and the overreactions of the general public given you can guarantee those two will be going mad over anything, whether it's COVID-19, AFLW, AFLM, NRL, an ad campaign, or whatever else has caught their two second attention span.

There's a moderate chance the AFL season gets cancelled or held without spectators. However it's not going to happen without extensive reasoning as to why that's necessary.

Right at this point that's right.

But if this virus progresses as seems likely it'll just be imposed ,no questions asked.

We're just as vulnerable as anywhere in Europe due to the high amount of travelers who flock to or live in our big cities. Once you get clusters,which we seem to be getting ,it's not long before you get the pandemic.

 

[briztoon]

I agree to take precautions although talk of cancelling the AFL season or playing games before empty stadiums is over the top IMO. Teams take precautions now by isolating players from the rest of the group when they get a virus/flu etc, just continue doing that.

I'm not rushing out to buy copious amounts of toilet paper anytime soon.

Jason mp playing games in empty stadiums is about protecting the vulnerable in our society.

If we can slow down, and contain the spread, we protect the elderly and vulnerable.

 

[briztoon]

Just a little perspective.

Wuhan is a city of 10 million people. If we take the whole of China figures and apply them to Wuhan, less than 1% of Wuhan has been reported to have contracted the virus.

 

[martinson]

I see the GP is going ahead . Madness in my view.

The hope for Governments ,well for all of us I guess is that this virus is contained and we therefore control the outbreak of new cases.

Logically you don't do that unless you have some stringent containment measures in place. So what we're doing here is what they did in China ,Italy ,France ,Iran ,the US and countless other placers is to roll the dice and talk the talk but not actually do anything for a while and hope it goes away.

Maybe we could get lucky.

 

[briztoon]

One thing that concerns me is that there are a lot of reasons to doubt the numbers coming out of the us and China, though for different reasons - the US for profit health care system does not seem ready for for an epidemic and test kits are in short supply, while China has strong economic incentives to say everything is cool, we got this. Outbreaks could be far more severe in both countries than official statistics imply, and with our winter coming on that could increase the risk of a severe outbreak here through imported cases.

It's more than a little suss that cases basically cleared up in China after top communist officials said that heads would roll unless new cases stopped being found. The response of the Chinese citizens in wuhan does raise my suspicions around how successful containment has actually been there:

‘It’s all fake!’ Angry residents shout at Chinese vice-premier in Wuhan

As Sun Chunlan walks through locked down estate, locals yell out that it was cleaned up and grocery deliveries arranged in time for her visit.

www.scmp.com

Yeah, the USA figures don’t feel right to me.

I read an article 3 days ago that mentioned there had only been ~1500 test performed nation wide.


While China built a lab to process 10,000 tests per day at the same time that it built the new “hospitals” in Wuhan. (This information was mentioned on an ABC interview with a QLD virologist who has been following The outbreak in China).

 

[deklares]

Just a little perspective.

Wuhan is a city of 10 million people. If we take the whole of China figures and apply them to Wuhan, less than 1% of Wuhan has been reported to have contracted the virus.

I'm not sure rates of infection are accurate ATM because of the lack of severe symptoms being reported by some. Many may mistake a mild bout of COVID for a cold.

 

[briztoon]

I'm not sure rates of infection are accurate ATM because of the lack of severe symptoms being reported by some. Many may mistake a mild bout of COVID for a cold.

Think you meant mild symptoms.

But yes, I agree.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

Here's some analysis on infection and mortality rates I found over the weekend that might be of interest. I found the estimates of how long it could last really interesting - didn't realise three months was the norm for past epidemics

Updated COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis | Nucleus Wealth

COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics & analysis focusing on how countries are coping with Coronavirus outbreaks, including numbers of cases, deaths & testing

nucleuswealth.com

 

[briztoon]

Some other perspective.

If Wuhan had the same infection and mortality rates for the Flu that Australia has, then they would expect approximately 120,000 cases of laboratory confirmed cases of the flu and 326 deaths from the flu.

For the record, I’m using figures from here.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm/$File/flu-12-2019.pdf

The 2019 Australian flu season was from April 1st to October 6th. I’ve no idea how the they arrive at those dates.

 

[Gibbo_88]

The flu kills the elderly more and also people that have a significant history of poor health (COPD, liver and kidney disease are a few examples). Then there are a small percentage of young healthy people that can get the flu and it sends them into multi organ failure and they need to be in an Intensive care unit and some of these people die.

There isn’t enough information on the virus yet but it is better to be over the top than not have enough measures in place.

 

[briztoon]

The flu kills the elderly more and also people that have a significant history of poor health (COPD, liver and kidney disease are a few examples). Then there are a small percentage of young healthy people that can get the flu and it sends them into multi organ failure and they need to be in an Intensive care unit and some of these people die.

There isn’t enough information on the virus yet but it is better to be over the top than not have enough measures in place.

From the link above, Australia recorded 812 deaths from flu, between April 1st 2019 and October 6th 2019.

 

[CarterS]

I've had a trip booked down to Melbourne for months for the F1 race which I am now second guessing, if the race isn't cancelled though I won't get any refund (tickets weren't cheap!).

 

[Saucery]

Sorry, when you said "the world has gone mad" I thought you meant the precautions actually being taken by the world - not the response of talkback radio commentators and the overreactions of the general public given you can guarantee those two will be going mad over anything, whether it's COVID-19, AFLW, AFLM, NRL, an ad campaign, or whatever else has caught their two second attention span.

There's a moderate chance the AFL season gets cancelled or held without spectators. However it's not going to happen without extensive reasoning as to why that's necessary.

 

[Brett C]

I stand to be corrected, but I agree with you, the world is going mad. From what I have read the vast majority of the population will be fine, it's the elderly/frail that have to be vigilant and take measures to limit possible exposure. IMO this will run it's course, people will die as they do from the Flu/Pneumonia etc every year but the world as we know it will not end.

Swine flu, H1N1, SARS, Bird flu, Corona.

I will try and find the article at some stage but South Korea has been at the forefront of testing large portions of the population and the mortality rate was substantially less @ 0.6% than the rest of the world. A UQ public health professor has stated that MERS & SARS were worse than this but 1 major difference is social media and new reporting.

500k odd people die each year from the flu. Good buying time in the stock market to take advantage of people scared the world is ending

 

[Saucery]

But seriously its a massive unknown. There is no know trajectory, no know vaccine or treatment, it's unknown if it can be contracted multiple times and the current death rate is tracking at around 20 per 1000 cases, as opposed to 1 per 1000 cases for the flu. Hell the Irish have cancelled St Patrick's day!

 

[bungalow_bill]

It was just a matter of time.

These are young guys who go out and mix with people.

This might sound dramatic but I wouldn't be surprised if the whole season got shut down at some point.

Default 2020 premier will be the team who finished 2nd in 2019

 

[bungalow_bill]

I agree to take precautions although talk of cancelling the AFL season or playing games before empty stadiums is over the top IMO. Teams take precautions now by isolating players from the rest of the group when they get a virus/flu etc, just continue doing that.

I'm not rushing out to buy copious amounts of toilet paper anytime soon.

Mandatory masks for all players and fans.

 

[chopperduck]

It is simply about doing the right thing to stop further spreading what can be a deadly virus. Yes chances are low that you die but why force the population to play russian roulette when by simply having good hygiene and some isolation measures could stop the game entirely. To me this is very similar to vaccination, you want all the population to do the right thing so everyone is protected.

We have already seen big sporting events and big public crowds cancelled, the world goes on. With how much travel the players do they will be at risk, and once 1 team gets it, you cant have them risking to spread it. If it spreads enough in the general population closing stadiums to protect players wouldnt be a horrible thing either.

My current concern is that we have ANZAC day coming up, a very large day of big crowds and many elderly people out and about.

 

[Gibbo_88]

I will try and find the article at some stage but South Korea has been at the forefront of testing large portions of the population and the mortality rate was substantially less @ 0.6% than the rest of the world. A UQ public health professor has stated that MERS & SARS were worse than this but 1 major difference is social media and new reporting.

500k odd people die each year from the flu. Good buying time in the stock market to take advantage of people scared the world is ending

Yep, that's what I'm looking at pretty closely. You can never time the market but it had an amazing 12 months prior

 

[Brett C]

But seriously its a massive unknown. There is no know trajectory, no know vaccine or treatment, it's unknown if it can be contracted multiple times and the current death rate is tracking at around 20 per 1000 cases, as opposed to 1 per 1000 cases for the flu. Hell the Irish have cancelled St Patrick's day!

That's the case for most of these types of viruses, it is far less deadly than SARS and MERS although with a lower rate of incidence. than Coronavirus.

The actual death rate will be much lower as testing progresses as a substantial number of people haven't/won't be tested.

 

[Dylan12]

Having serious problems getting the hands on toilet paper, even the public toilets have been stripped bare!

I'm in the same boat.

Some people must surely have enough to last them years.

I find this hording that clearly a lot of people are doing is nothing short but selfish and a disgrace.

 

[M Malice]

Yeah sure. But Governments will put protocols in place and as soon as someone in the team has it the team goes in to lockdown.Simple.

Btw your 81 year old grandmother shouldn't really be going anywhere where there's a crowd of people . People said that was silly in other countries, now it's just accepted due to the high percentage of older people who get severely impacted if they catch it.

I can't control my mother but I was speaking to her about it the other day and she's not worried, she is very healthy for her age though, as I said walks nearly everyday and remarkably for a person of her age she's on zero medication.

I'm in the same boat.

Some people must surely have enough to last them years.

I find this hording that clearly a lot of people are doing is nothing short but selfish and a disgrace.

Yep agree, I've got a 6 pack on hand so for me being single that will last a while, I go shopping twice a week and the last 2 times I've been there has been no toilet paper at all at my local Coles ie. Fairfield Gardens.

 

[Gadzorks]

Geesus, the mortality rate in Italy is surpassing that of Wuhan (let alone China).

Coronavirus Update (Live): 128,239,149 Cases and 2,804,346 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Yeah, China lie about a lot of stuff. Do not believe their reported stats at all.