Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact III “WA - An Island within an Island”

[Rowan18]

I received an email from the club that mentioned 2020 memberships. They can't offer specifics yet, but it said that they well be presenting a number of options to people. Some of the other language implied one option may be to forgo a refund, but I suspect there will also be options to get cash back for those who really need it.

They also said they expect the AFL to make some announcements on resuming the season in the second or third week of May.

 

[Altum Volantes]

I received an email from the club that mentioned 2020 memberships. They can't offer specifics yet, but it said that they well be presenting a number of options to people. Some of the other language implied one option may be to forgo a refund, but I suspect there will also be options to get cash back for those who really need it.

They also said they expect the AFL to make some announcements on resuming the season in the second or third week of May.

McLachlan basically conceded that there will be no crowds in 2020, so the club will throw up 3 options:

1. No Refund - You’ll get thanked for your amazing contribution and probably get your name on one of those ‘Sugar Daddy’ jumpers that our poorer cousins around the league occasionally wheel out.

2. Some kind of part credit towards next season - calculated based on being able to keep some funds with the club and still getting something towards actually attending games.

3. Full Refund - May or May not require you to forfeit your membership status and go to the back of the queue - my guess is they won’t do that to people because it’s bad PR but not like they don’t have people lining up to replace them? - tough one.

I probably lie somewhere in the middle - have been impacted by Covid 19 financially but probably not going to push for a full refund. My wife is a Dockers member, I’ll be encouraging her to go for a full refund considering we should never have paid for that anyway.

 

[bombard]

I probably lie somewhere in the middle - have been impacted by Covid 19 financially but probably not going to push for a full refund. My wife is a Dockers member, I’ll be encouraging her to go for a full refund considering we should never have paid for that anyway.

No you should go for a full refund so you can afford a divorce lawyer.

 

[FatPizza]

I'm hoping a bunch of people drop their memberships so I can have one!

 

[Seadog]

McLachlan basically conceded that there will be no crowds in 2020, so the club will throw up 3 options:

1. No Refund - You’ll get thanked for your amazing contribution and probably get your name on one of those ‘Sugar Daddy’ jumpers that our poorer cousins around the league occasionally wheel out.

2. Some kind of part credit towards next season - calculated based on being able to keep some funds with the club and still getting something towards actually attending games.

3. Full Refund - May or May not require you to forfeit your membership status and go to the back of the queue - my guess is they won’t do that to people because it’s bad PR but not like they don’t have people lining up to replace them? - tough one.

I probably lie somewhere in the middle - have been impacted by Covid 19 financially but probably not going to push for a full refund. My wife is a Dockers member, I’ll be encouraging her to go for a full refund considering we should never have paid for that anyway.

The $1500 I paid this year is a substantial sum of money, especially for someone past 60 who may not work again. I love the footy club but I love my family more and I'd prefer some of the money went to help them. I don't mind donating $500 but I would like the rest back or $500 back and $500 towards next years membership.

 

[Altum Volantes]

The $1500 I paid this year is a substantial sum of money, especially for someone past 60 who may not work again. I love the footy club but I love my family more and I'd prefer some of the money went to help them. I don't mind donating $500 but I would like the rest back or $500 back and $500 towards next years membership.

I get that completely - and I think the majority would feel similar to you.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[Max zero]

Hearing today with great fanfare that Oxford University is starting their human trial for a very promising vaccine candidate.

Estimated study completition: at least one year.

Errr.

 

[ConcreteWaters]

Hearing today with great fanfare that Oxford University is starting their human trial for a very promising vaccine candidate.

Estimated study completition: at least one year.

Errr.

Still a lot better than the timeline of most trials which is 1-2 years in Phase I/II, another 1-4 years for a Phase III. If an effective vaccine is available for widespread use in a year it will represent one of man's greatest ever scientific achievements.

 

[MrWoollie]

Hearing today with great fanfare that Oxford University is starting their human trial for a very promising vaccine candidate.

Estimated study completition: at least one year.

Errr.

A few reasons for that.

It's Oxford, so it'll be a proper double blind placebo controlled jobbie going through all the phases.
It's a new vaccine rather than an existing thing used and approved for something else like the anti-malarials or AIDS drugs that others are trying.

It's still a remarkable effort to get something new to trial this fast.

 

[Dazzler9]

They should've just gone with the Pine-O-Cleen, White King blend that Uncy Don advocates. No need for those pesky year-long trials. pfft

 

[MrKK]

There was an economist on Q&A the other night who explained how the government makes decisions on lives all the time:

From the transcript:

GIGI FOSTER: I’m talking about lost lives. I’m talking about quality-adjusted life years which is the normal currency that people use when they’re making decisions in developed countries about how much to spend on saving people’s lives, because we always have to allocate resources. We don’t like to think about this, but it happens all the time, every day, in a health ministry in a developed country.

There has to be a choice about how to allocate your scarce resources. How much towards cancer research, how much towards, you know, this, that and the other – different disability and illness that can affect people all throughout their lives. And when those decisions are made, when the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme decides what drugs to take on, it’s using QALYs.

AND:

GIGI FOSTER: I don’t think that anybody is saying we should abandon the old people. I fact, I think that that’s been one of the most consistent messages that we’ve seen from responses around the world, and I even said it on my radio program a few weeks ago – we should be quarantining the older people to the extent we can – voluntarily, of course. You don’t force anybody in our society to do something, ideally, but…

So, if somebody wants to hug their grandchild, fine. But people in nursing homes who can be quarantined, yes, we should protect them. That doesn’t mean that, you know, we shouldn’t be thinking as well about other human welfare costs. And I reject the idea that it’s lives versus the economy. It’s lives versus lives. The economy is about lives. It’s about protection of lives and human welfare and livelihood.


FWIW, this is about where I sit.

I haven't watched Q&A in ages because i was sick of the politicians on it just trying to score points, but i caught Monday's episode and it was excellent.

I totally agree with what the economist said. There are real health outcomes from an economic downturn that cost lives. We can't save everyone from COVID-19 deaths without an indefinite lockdown that will kill more people via other means. Not pleasant to think about, but an unavoidable truth.

 

[MrKK]

McLachlan basically conceded that there will be no crowds in 2020, so the club will throw up 3 options:

1. No Refund - You’ll get thanked for your amazing contribution and probably get your name on one of those ‘Sugar Daddy’ jumpers that our poorer cousins around the league occasionally wheel out.

2. Some kind of part credit towards next season - calculated based on being able to keep some funds with the club and still getting something towards actually attending games.

3. Full Refund - May or May not require you to forfeit your membership status and go to the back of the queue - my guess is they won’t do that to people because it’s bad PR but not like they don’t have people lining up to replace them? - tough one.

I probably lie somewhere in the middle - have been impacted by Covid 19 financially but probably not going to push for a full refund. My wife is a Dockers member, I’ll be encouraging her to go for a full refund considering we should never have paid for that anyway.

I'd be shocked if the club blackmailed people into not getting refunded under option 3. Terrible PR and no, there probably isn't people waiting in the wings since so many would be suffering financially at the moment. I expect they'll be banking on members to either accept a credit for the future or no refund at all.

My interstate membership is only $150 a year so they can keep it as far as I'm concerned. YMMV.

 

[Biggie]

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

I'm looking forward to getting under 1,000 active cases.

 

[Dazzler9]

76 active cases in WA apparently.

 

[Luuuc]

Not happy, NSW. You're making it hard for the country to stay < 20.
No more beaches for you!!!

 

[Chris_6678]

Getting close to half a million tests. Wish WA would test more.

 

[Luuuc]

Getting close to half a million tests. Wish WA would test more.

Serious question - is it WA's fault for not testing more, or is it just not enough people here feeling sick --> not enough people getting themselves tested?

If our testing capabilities are being under-utilised, I'd love us to pick a couple of suburbs and blanket test everyone in them to see whether it reveals any surprises.

 

[Godfather32]

Serious question - is it WA's fault for not testing more, or is it just not enough people here feeling sick --> not enough people getting themselves tested?

That's what I reckon, haven't seen a sick person in weeks

 

[Forward Press]

Serious question - is it WA's fault for not testing more, or is it just not enough people here feeling sick --> not enough people getting themselves tested?

If our testing capabilities are being under-utilised, I'd love us to pick a couple of suburbs and blanket test everyone in them to see whether it reveals any surprises.

Anyone with any symptoms typical of COVID-19 (sore throat, fever, cough) could get tested as of two weeks ago.

I think (hopefully) we're just healthy. Mineral Resources, Rio Tinto etc have been running thousands by themselves on otherwise healthy FIFO workers and only picked up that 1 case from a couple of weeks ago (the one that came back from Bali).

I suspect they are now looking into randomised community testing even if you have no symptoms once we have enough tests in stock to do so.

 

[Luuuc]

That's what I reckon, haven't seen a sick person in weeks

Me neither. Well... not with my own eyes at least.
(I did hear about some single guy who was taking social isolation a little too seriously and fending off all these keen women, but I'm pretty sure it was all made up)

 

[WCErevival]

Not happy, NSW. You're making it hard for the country to stay < 20.
No more beaches for you!!!

Less beach and more bleach. /Donald

 

[Biggie]

No more beaches for you!!!

Taken today

 

[Biggie]

 

[Keys]

Taken today

Looks bad but those crowd photos make it look as if people are far closer together than is probably the case. A drone shot would give a better indication of whether social distancing is being achieved