Mega Thread COVID & AFL

[Van_Dyke]

Team,
as the season is approaching and there’s still much to discuss with regards to covid, please use this thread to talk about it and the potential impacts of it on the AFL season and the league more broadly. Please note however that if you want to talk about the politics of covid, the politics thread is the place for this and political posts in this thread will be deleted, please keep this thread to how it may impact the competition

 

[Taylor]

Would you rather take a fart in your face from someone wearing pants or no pants?

Pants don't stop you smelling it and you wearing pants has no impact on their fart like them wearing pants does.

As I've been saying since the start, the primary and nearly all benefit of a mask is found when a sick person is wearing one. This is reflected in the current protocols around close contacts and should be community wide accepted.

If you're sick or near someone who was sick you wear the mask so the rest of us can see it and keep our distance from you.

 

[arsesmart]

Feel free to address anything I've actually said instead of trying to gaslight your way around it.

Lash out? Gaslight? Upset? Fear? More broad terms lacking any specific tests or challenges of what I've written. Did you not conflate covid with flu? Did you not argue against the point that "ramping" is a complex issue? What about the 5% nugget?

 

[Paracleet]

We need a steady drip of players getting it or risk losing a big group of players at an inconvenient time later in the season.

What are we only 2/5 of the squad so far?

 

[arsesmart]

Pants don't stop you smelling it and you wearing pants has no impact on their fart like them wearing pants does.

As I've been saying since the start, the primary and nearly all benefit of a mask is found when a sick person is wearing one. This is reflected in the current protocols around close contacts and should be community wide accepted.

If you're sick or near someone who was sick you wear the mask so the rest of us can see it and keep our distance from you.

No but they reduce the amount of particles. And are a minor inconvenience (certainly if you're not used to wearing pants).

 

[Taylor]

Lash out? Gaslight? Upset? Fear? More broad terms lacking any specific tests or challenges of what I've written. Did you not conflate covid with flu? Did you not argue against the point that "ramping" is a complex issue? What about the 5% nugget?

I did suggest that covid-19 is very much like the flu now in both the effect it has on society and the people most at risk of it. As shown in the figures I mentioned on ventilator use being equal between the small number of alpha variant cases in WA and the near half a million omicron cases.

I said that ramping was the result of upstream staffing shortages and has been for at least two election cycles.

The 5% increase in deaths prior to covid-19 was mentioned because that number of deaths extra is significant, it was also nearly universally unnoticed by the community. My point with it was that the community has been comfortable with the deaths of the elderly and infirm in the background for a while and will continue to in the future as covid-19 has turned into another disease that takes those people yearly, into the yearly cycle.

All that needs to happen now is that the community catch up with reality and get back to living how they were just a few years ago.

But as I said before:

I understand that it's easier to lash out at people who show you that you're irrationally afraid of something that probably isn't dangerous to you over reviewing something you've wrapped around yourself like a security blanket - I get it.

It's also possible that you're very much at risk from respiratory diseases like my best friends child is and you're seeking for the community to start taking it seriously to keep you slightly safer to the wider community's great cost - I also get that.

Time to take the measures to protect yourself that you see fit and move on.

 

[Taylor]

No but they reduce the amount of particles. And are a minor inconvenience (certainly if you're not used to wearing pants).

If the sick person is wearing the mask.

Reality is that if everyone wears a mask and only the sick people wear a mask we don't notice that much difference in outcome, so just the sick people need to wear masks.

This was the protocol prior to covid and will be when it's done again.

 

[Cesoir]

I don't understand the logic in wanting everyone to put masks back on because the positive case numbers have risen.

I don't understand the reasoning behind endlessly arguing this topic. Take the personal precautions you deem appropriate and stop waiting for the government to mandate behaviours. Australia, and WA in particular is such a nanny state.

 

[Paracleet]

Masks are now pretty pointless other than for the highly immunocomprised since in the absence of the virus disappearing all an (effective sealed) mask does is delay a person's eventual exposure*.
Sure if the hospital system was about to be overwhelmed, but by any reasonable metric its not.
You'd have to be pretty far though the looking glass to imagine ramping was being caused by covid at rate of admissions we're getting.

*Since its all ultimately driven by the susceptibility of the population to infection, which remains high in WA.

I know this puts me rhetorically in the same camp as some people who have always minimised COVID and railed against restrictions, but that's a stopped clock effect.

 

[Paracleet]

For the record I have COVID right now which is why I'm posting instead of working.

 

[arsesmart]

I did suggest that covid-19 is very much like the flu now in both the effect it has on society and the people most at risk of it. As shown in the figures I mentioned on ventilator use being equal between the small number of alpha variant cases in WA and the near half a million omicron cases.

I said that ramping was the result of upstream staffing shortages and has been for at least two election cycles.

The 5% increase in deaths prior to covid-19 was mentioned because that number of deaths extra is significant, it was also nearly universally unnoticed by the community. My point with it was that the community has been comfortable with the deaths of the elderly and infirm in the background for a while and will continue to in the future as covid-19 has turned into another disease that takes those people yearly, into the yearly cycle.

All that needs to happen now is that the community catch up with reality and get back to living how they were just a few years ago.

But as I said before:

Yes a complex issue, not easily fixed. In terms of what we're looking at here it's all just a diversion anyway. Classic logical fallacy of red herrings and whataboutism - "why should we do anything about significant problem X if Y is still an issue".

 

[arsesmart]

Masks are now pretty pointless other than for the highly immunocomprised since in the absence of the virus disappearing all an (effective sealed) mask does is delay a person's eventual exposure*.
Sure if the hospital system was about to be overwhelmed, but by any reasonable metric its not.
You'd have to be pretty far though the looking glass to imagine ramping was being caused by covid at rate of admissions we're getting.

*Since its all ultimately driven by the susceptibility of the population to infection, which remains high in WA.

I know this puts me rhetorically in the same camp as some people who have always minimised COVID and railed against restrictions, but that's a stopped clock effect.

Sigh. Masks are effective. Their use is in containment and reduction, not elimination.

 

[arsesmart]

I don't understand the reasoning behind endlessly arguing this topic. Take the personal precautions you deem appropriate and stop waiting for the government to mandate behaviours. Australia, and WA in particular is such a nanny state.

Mandates would increase the likelihood of the behaviour, TBF I haven't read the whole thread prior to my earliest post today, but I've not seen any arguments here to bring in the mandate.

My point has been on the relative effectiveness of masks as a reduction and containment step and the predominant purpose is for the consideration of others more than yourself.

 

[arsesmart]

The 5% increase in deaths prior to covid-19 was mentioned because that number of deaths extra is significant

If it's in the expected range, how can it be "significant"?

 

[Paracleet]

Sigh. Masks are effective. Their use is in containment and reduction, not elimination.

Yes but to what end? The same number of people are going to end up getting it. You understand this right?

 

[arsesmart]

Yes but to what end? The same number of people are going to end up getting it. You understand this right?

No. That's the point and logic of reduction and containment. It reduces the likely spread of infection, which reduces the number of people who are liable to be infected. Certainly fatalism-sans-action will end up maximising the spread and course of disease though.

 

[Cesoir]

Mandates would increase the likelihood of the behaviour, TBF I haven't read the whole thread prior to my earliest post today, but I've not seen any arguments here to bring in the mandate.

My point has been on the relative effectiveness of masks as a reduction and containment step and the predominant purpose is for the consideration of others more than yourself.

Yeah, I'm not going to contribute to the argument - I'll just say my piece then you can rip my arguments to shreds

I don't disagree with the principle that wearing masks can reduce the spread of COVID, I just wonder if you think all people should be prepared to wear masks for all time? I think the time for containment has passed, and we are now in the phase where it is endemic and people will get it (And continue to get it) much like the Spanish flu which is still endemic but the masks came of over 100 years ago.

In the early stage of COVID (long before a vaccine) I went to a function with around 40 doctors present an the consensus was that mask wearing by infected people could slow the spread to allow time for a vaccine to be developed and to "flatten the curve" to allow hospitals to cope. Wearing a mask will not stop you from getting infected, but may inhibit you spreading it, hence the advice to wear a mask outside if you are sick.

The thing is we are fixating on masks, but people wear pretty much anything as a mask (not the approve N95 masks) and re-use them over and over, making them pretty much useless. Mask wearing is something visible we can all point to, but social distancing, sanitising and general good health habits are not spoken about nearly as much.

For the record, I have not worn a mask since March except in my local pharmacy where they require it. I keep hand sanitiser in the car and I sanitise frequently, and I also social distance at all times. I have not had COVID as yet, but I am sure at some point I will get it and I will deal with it in the same way I would deal with a cold or flu - stay at home and rest. If symptoms persist or worsen I will seek medical advice.

Anyway, that's my 2 cent's worth, I'll leave it there.

 

[arsesmart]

Yeah, I'm not going to contribute to the argument - I'll just say my piece then you can rip my arguments to shreds

I don't disagree with the principle that wearing masks can reduce the spread of COVID, I just wonder if you think all people should be prepared to wear masks for all time? I think the time for containment has passed, and we are now in the phase where it is endemic and people will get it (And continue to get it) much like the Spanish flu which is still endemic but the masks came of over 100 years ago.

In the early stage of COVID (long before a vaccine) I went to a function with around 40 doctors present an the consensus was that mask wearing by infected people could slow the spread to allow time for a vaccine to be developed and to "flatten the curve" to allow hospitals to cope. Wearing a mask will not stop you from getting infected, but may inhibit you spreading it, hence the advice to wear a mask outside if you are sick.

The thing is we are fixating on masks, but people wear pretty much anything as a mask (not the approve N95 masks) and re-use them over and over, making them pretty much useless. Mask wearing is something visible we can all point to, but social distancing, sanitising and general good health habits are not spoken about nearly as much.

For the record, I have not worn a mask since March except in my local pharmacy where they require it. I keep hand sanitiser in the car and I sanitise frequently, and I also social distance at all times. I have not had COVID as yet, but I am sure at some point I will get it and I will deal with it in the same way I would deal with a cold or flu - stay at home and rest. If symptoms persist or worsen I will seek medical advice.

Anyway, that's my 2 cent's worth, I'll leave it there.

Masks, of whatever kind, will still be effective to varying degrees, particularly at reducing the range of spread from the wearer. They become less effective with the quantity/size of particles emitted the lower the filtration the mask has (at either manufacture or greater the repeated use).

It's an important distinction to (re)emphasise, masks are more about containing the spread from the wearer. Obviously, there are a range of factors that impact whether any particular individual will be infected and then become symptomatic.

Across many countries in Asia, masks have long been used in flu season to reduce the spread. It's a smart idea really.

 

[clivenator26]

When we approach the bye we should have a covid party, the players seem committed this season so lets do this thing right!

We play the Hawks Saturday arvo 11th June, let the boys go to the hip-e-club that night, catch the rona and then lay low for a week in isolation, then we have Carlton Saturday 25th June and can worry less about it for the remaining 3 months of the season.

 

[Paracleet]

No. That's the point and logic of reduction and containment. It reduces the likely spread of infection, which reduces the number of people who are liable to be infected. Certainly fatalism-sans-action will end up maximising the spread and course of disease though.

I'm sorry but this is simply wrong. Yes within a given time frame it reduces the spread, but we don't live in discrete timeframes. It's continuous.
A person who bypasses an omicron infection with a mask remains susceptible. Indeed it increases it as more time has elapsed since their booster next time they are exposed. Every infection delayed now increases the R in the future (as the Chinese have discovered)

The only way to not be vulnerable (nearly anyway) is to wear an effective mask 100% of the time in contact with anyone, or somehow ensure 100% of the population has had a shot within the last 3 months (clearly impossible).

Put it another way, do you remember 2020? Flattening the curve? Notice it was called flattening, not reducing. Same number of people, more time, not less total infections.

Mandatory restrictions where for waiting for something that can change the eventual outcomes which by are by definition pharma based ones (vaccinations, anti virals) not NPIs. They are for delay.
I supported the mandatory restrictions right through 2020, 2021, unlike some of the peanuts on here whose arguments now sound similar to mine, but there is now no longer any rational reason for them with vaccination essentially at saturation and there being no prospect of new treatments or vaccines in a reasonable time frame.
In fact the sooner a majority of the non immunocomprised population have had it the better off the immunocomprised will be.

 

[arsesmart]

I'm sorry but this is simply wrong. Yes within a given time frame it reduces the spread, but we don't live in discrete timeframes. It's continuous.
A person who bypasses an omicron infection with a mask remains susceptible. Indeed it increases it as more time has elapsed since their booster next time they are exposed. Every infection delayed now increases the R in the future (as the Chinese have discovered)

The only way to not be vulnerable (nearly anyway) is to wear an effective mask 100% of the time in contact with anyone, or somehow ensure 100% of the population has had a shot within the last 3 months (clearly impossible).

Put it another way, do you remember 2020? Flattening the curve? Notice it was called flattening, not reducing. Same number of people, more time, not less total infections.

Mandatory restrictions where for waiting for something that can change the eventual outcomes which by are by definition pharma based ones (vaccinations, anti virals) not NPIs. They are for delay.
I supported the mandatory restrictions right through 2020, 2021, unlike some of the peanuts on here whose arguments now sound similar to mine, but there is now no longer any rational reason for them with vaccination essentially at saturation and there being no prospect of new treatments or vaccines in a reasonable time frame.
In fact the sooner a majority of the non immunocomprised population have had it the better off the immunocomprised will be.

I'm sorry but it's not simply wrong.

Viruses don't always live indefinitely. They go dormant in various ways or mutate (to stronger or weaker forms) or are simply blocked from new hosts and "die" off. The more hosts they get access to the higher chances there are of mutations. Obviously, immunity (either total or strengthened) doesn't have to come from direct exposure.

The flattening the curve allows time for all of these.

Some of this disagreement can be put down to the way we categorise it. Whether we look at the common DNA or the impact of the symptoms in classification. But certainly viruses can run into a brick wall if there's a concerted and effective effort to contain them.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Well, a car crash isn't WWIII, but we still take steps to reduce the amount and impact of them.

Mask wearing is done mainly for the consideration of others. Fair enough if that isn't something that sits above avoiding your own minor inconvenience on your priority list, but for most masks the greatest effectiveness is in reducing the amount and range of spread of airborn particles from the wearer.

Given Covid can have periods of asymptomic infectiousness and masks are a relatively easy effort, with minor inconvenience for most, it's a fairly reasonable measure to take.

I dsagree.
If you are sensitive to sunlight then stay out of the sun.

 

[Nodgey]

I'll answer.

If someone were to fart in my face, I'd prefer they wore pants while doing so.

 

[Westy2487]

Are you kooks still believing this rubbish. **** me.

 

[Westy2487]

Sheeple the bunch of you.

 

[mattis117]

Sheeple the bunch of you.