Certified Legendary Thread Covid, Life, UFOs, Food, & Wordle :(

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Shouldn’t we be trying to get some herd immunity to Covid?
With my limited expertise, so cruelly pointed out above by a board genius, the biggest issue with herd immunity in Australia is the massive numbers of infections needed to achieve it.

Just based on the info that is freely available to us, herd immunity generally requires 60% acquired immunity in the community. In Australia that translates to 15,000,000 infections. Given we have just over 6000 recorded cases we are miles off that goal and even on a 1% mortality that means 150,000 deaths to go with the infections and a completely overwhelmed medical system and total shut down for a very long period.

As TRS pointed out above we are also not certain how long immunity lasts but to be perfectly frank it would be a big surprise if long term significant protection didn’t come from the primary infection.

Our lucky position in dropping our numbers so significantly is we have bought time to make good decisions about controlling the disease numbers and controlled reopening. A effective vaccine to complete that senario is by so far the best option. That’s what we hang our hat on

Aquiring herd immunity via immunity require huge loss of life and interruption of our lifestyle way beyond what we have experienced so far. Whichever way this pans out I don’t see a senario where our lifestyle isn’t damaged for 18 months. There are only
less worse scenarios available. We have done the work to get a less worse.
 
No you haven't answered my question.
I will repeat it.
If we find a vaccine for Covid tomorrow are you happy with the world continuing total lockdown to save the 4.5 million that die from air pollution.
If not then why not. Why is a lockdown acceptable to save people from Covid but not from air pollution.
45 million people die from air pollution every decade. That's almost twice Australias population. But we have never gone into lockdown for that.

Again air pollution is just one example. The point is millions of people die every year for all manner of reasons. Why don't we take this sort of action for them.

And please don't reply by saying it is to save lives. I know it is to save lives. My question is why is Covid so important. Why have we never taken such drastic action for any of the other things that cause millions of deaths.
Gone Critical has given an excellent response to this question. So I would also like to look at another aspect.

The acute nature of this disease without effective treatment compared to the chronic diseases such as COPD with effective treatments you mention is the key point.

The people in the first line are medical people with high levels of education and skills. Losing high numbers of these people would be a disaster for the country as they are very difficult to replace. And that in turn has a flow on effect for treatments of all diseases.

There are a lot of unknowns with CV, so it is good risk management to control things that you can control. Hence the lock down.

That is why CV is so important.

With regards to deaths from air pollution, there was a great article in the Guardian by Lenore Taylor, expressing hope that all sides of politics could come together over the issue of climate change, listen to scientists like they have with CV, and reach outcomes that are better for the health of the planet.

Deaths from fossil fuel pollution are in the millions each and every year and it is something that the charlatans and con artists of the Murdoch Press dare not even mention. With climate change, scientists are being continually abused by morons like Bolt, Jones, Dean, Kenny, Murray. None of whom have made it beyond Year 10 science. As John Cleese says' some people are so ignorant and incompetent that they don't even realize how ignorant and incompetent they are'.
 
F116296A-8679-4B5B-BAF5-6B0406FC3765.jpeg
Timing differences.. not all traditions remain the same.. libras improve everyday and now see the value of a good loaf of Sunblest.
Thats a loaf. Tatin bakery, the best
 
Gone Critical has given an excellent response to this question. So I would also like to look at another aspect.

The acute nature of this disease without effective treatment compared to the chronic diseases such as COPD with effective treatments you mention is the key point.

The people in the first line are medical people with high levels of education and skills. Losing high numbers of these people would be a disaster for the country as they are very difficult to replace. And that in turn has a flow on effect for treatments of all diseases.

There are a lot of unknowns with CV, so it is good risk management to control things that you can control. Hence the lock down.

That is why CV is so important.

With regards to deaths from air pollution, there was a great article in the Guardian by Lenore Taylor, expressing hope that all sides of politics could come together over the issue of climate change, listen to scientists like they have with CV, and reach outcomes that are better for the health of the planet.

Deaths from fossil fuel pollution are in the millions each and every year and it is something that the charlatans and con artists of the Murdoch Press dare not even mention. With climate change, scientists are being continually abused by morons like Bolt, Jones, Dean, Kenny, Murray. None of whom have made it beyond Year 10 science. As John Cleese says' some people are so ignorant and incompetent that they don't even realize how ignorant and incompetent they are'.
Very true re Cleese. While some say the art of specialisation is knowing less and less about more and more I reckon it really comes from knowing what you don’t know. Bolt doesn’t have a chance on that basis.

The thought about loss of medical expertise is a good discussion. It’s one of the things I have wondered about and is hardly being discussed. With the drive to produce mass ventilators I haven’t seen any real discussion of who is going to drive them. It’s conceivable if we had the New York issue people like me could be dragged in to manage a ventilator. Believe me if your life is hanging in the balance you don’t want me,1st day on L plates, driving your ventilator.

I would only whisper but as a nurse who was supervising me walked past I would say “what was that dial for again”. Yikes.
 
Very true re Cleese. While some say the art of specialisation is knowing less and less about more and more I reckon it really comes from knowing what you don’t know. Bolt doesn’t have a chance on that basis.

The thought about loss of medical expertise is a good discussion. It’s one of the things I have wondered about and is hardly being discussed. With the drive to produce mass ventilators I haven’t seen any real discussion of who is going to drive them. It’s conceivable if we had the New York issue people like me could be dragged in to manage a ventilator. Believe me if your life is hanging in the balance you don’t want me,1st day on L plates, driving your ventilator.

I would only whisper but as a nurse who was supervising me walked past I would say “what was that dial for again”. Yikes.

I watched enough ER to know that even George Clooney found it hard to get a tube in.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

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With my limited expertise, so cruelly pointed out above by a board genius, the biggest issue with herd immunity in Australia is the massive numbers of infections needed to achieve it.

Just based on the info that is freely available to us, herd immunity generally requires 60% acquired immunity in the community. In Australia that translates to 15,000,000 infections. Given we have just over 6000 recorded cases we are miles off that goal and even on a 1% mortality that means 150,000 deaths to go with the infections and a completely overwhelmed medical system and total shut down for a very long period.

As TRS pointed out above we are also not certain how long immunity lasts but to be perfectly frank it would be a big surprise if long term significant protection didn’t come from the primary infection.

Our lucky position in dropping our numbers so significantly is we have bought time to make good decisions about controlling the disease numbers and controlled reopening. A effective vaccine to complete that senario is by so far the best option. That’s what we hang our hat on

Aquiring herd immunity via immunity require huge loss of life and interruption of our lifestyle way beyond what we have experienced so far. Whichever way this pans out I don’t see a senario where our lifestyle isn’t damaged for 18 months. There are only
less worse scenarios available. We have done the work to get a less worse.
Excellent explanation. Wondering if that has changed your view MG?
 
Made a ragu.

Was going to have it on sunblest. Thought stuff that, that's for lazy schmucks. So I made some gnocchi to have it on. My gnocchi are a bit spaz in terms of shape, or as Jamie Oliver would say - rustic.
 

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I have invested in a coffee bean roaster (other than footy I'm passionate about olympic weight-lifting, charcoal grills, Greek holidays, motorbikes, wine, and coffee - not in that order).

Thanks to isolife I now have more time to test new blends and to play around with the darkness of each batch.

The aroma of freshly ground coffee every morning is a ritual.

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Don't judge me!!!
 
Made a ragu.

Was going to have it on sunblest. Thought stuff that, that's for lazy schmucks. So I made some gnocchi to have it on. My gnocchi are a bit spaz in terms of shape, or as Jamie Oliver would say - rustic.
Finally you worked out how close you need to put the phone next to the PC. :thumbsu:
 
Very true re Cleese. While some say the art of specialisation is knowing less and less about more and more I reckon it really comes from knowing what you don’t know. Bolt doesn’t have a chance on that basis.

The thought about loss of medical expertise is a good discussion. It’s one of the things I have wondered about and is hardly being discussed. With the drive to produce mass ventilators I haven’t seen any real discussion of who is going to drive them. It’s conceivable if we had the New York issue people like me could be dragged in to manage a ventilator. Believe me if your life is hanging in the balance you don’t want me,1st day on L plates, driving your ventilator.

I would only whisper but as a nurse who was supervising me walked past I would say “what was that dial for again”. Yikes.

There was talk early on that Veterinarians and vet nurses may be called on to help “drive” the ventilators.
While not an ideal solution, at least there were plans.
 
My oldest boy Max turns 12 tomorrow and we’re watching a Movie atm that is very relevant to his life as a 12 year old..........the only thing is it isn’t appropriate for him or his brother and sister to watch........but it is sooooo f kn funny.

I know I am a bad parent but I highly recommend this Movie if you want to laugh during this weird time we’re experiencing.

E0415184-91D7-4072-AAD7-E9BC433D075F.jpeg
 

**** not fair.

When I started going out again with my partner, he had lived in Prahran and I moved him in with me in Brighton. He would say, "I'm just going for some stuff at the bakery, be a while" and I was like...what the? And I didnt know about Woodfrog even though there was one in Brighton, but he had gotten hooked when they had their first one in Barkly Street St Kilda.

He brought some home and I was like, yeah, its bread. Oh **** it is not bread. It makes you crave it in ways that I have only previously experienced with illicit narcotics. The Soir...the danish, the hot cross buns, the baguettes, the homemade hommus. It is one thing I miss like hell from Melbourne. When ever I go down to town, I bring back a stash. Been too long, I need to make an excuse for an essential family trip and stock up on the way back.
 
On a slightly different tangent, (but no less important IMO).
Had a virtual dinner with a couple who support St Kilda tonight.
After a few drinks he reminded me we were due to play this weekend and suggested we play DFL, (thanks SEN).
You'll be pleased to know we won 19.19.133 to 13.13.91.
Still undefeated - Go Pies!!
 
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