Resource COVID19 V - The Info Thread

[Dazzler9]

Only about 2200 of those cases were from PCR's and apparently we had over 17000 PCR tests conducted, which is around 12% positive case rate which is significantly down on the weekends 20% positive case rate.

I'd be surprised if we really hit 10000 in a day this week, though just scraping past our previous peak has probably scotched my prediction of only one more daily record

6,062 today Zerg

 

[ZergMinion]

6,062 today Zerg

Back up to 17% positive on PCR tests too. Starting to think I'm drunk on my own bathwater from past successes

 

[ioppolo]

The true hospital numbers being a tad inflated doesn't help...can't wait to be shot down for this

Most COVID cases in Perth ICU were being treated for other conditions, department head reveals

The revelation is the first indication of how many people in hospital are being treated with COVID-19 – as opposed to for COVID-19.

www.watoday.com.au

Also how fkd up was that initial modelling?

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

The true hospital numbers being a tad inflated doesn't help...can't wait to be shot down for this

Not sure why you'd be shot down. Things tracking better than any other state is a good thing

Also how fkd up was that initial modelling?

it is anticipated that these are conservative estimates and, as result of the WA population being significantly more vaccinated than other Australian jurisdictions and other nations when the outbreak commenced, the actual effect may be lower cases and bed requirements.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

7150 cases (31k active)
140 in hospital
4 in ICU
1 death

Getting closer to that predicted 10k peak...

 

[new breed]

That's a lot of cases for little old WA ..

 

[Rowan18]

That's a lot of cases for little old WA ..

Not really, there's over 2M people in the Perth Metro area and those are the cases statewide (approx 2.65M).

 

[DanWCE]

Positive PCR testing at 21%. Waiting for Zerg to weigh in on how we're tracking compared to SA.

McGowan reckons the peak is a few days away now. If weekend testing drops off then it may well roll into next week before we hit our peak caseload. Genuinely wondering if we'll actually get to 10k in a single day.

 

[kranky al]

Interesting read for the let er rip crowd:

 

[ZergMinion]

Positive PCR testing at 21%. Waiting for Zerg to weigh in on how we're tracking compared to SA.

McGowan reckons the peak is a few days away now. If weekend testing drops off then it may well roll into next week before we hit our peak caseload. Genuinely wondering if we'll actually get to 10k in a single day.

Either my methodology is flawed (likely), or comparing against SA is losing relevance for case numbers. Government confusion around the peak date seems to support the latter.

We're still going great in the serious illness and death comparison. Especially if our numbers are inflated.

My daughter is now a close contact and is less than impressed. No Covid in the house thus far however.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

71% booster rate in WA. Not sure how high that needs to get before continued restrictions (outside of hospitals, aged care etc) can no longer be justified.

 

[Chris_6678]

71% booster rate in WA. Not sure how high that needs to get before continued restrictions (outside of hospitals, aged care etc) can no longer be justified.

Pretty 80% was mentioned?

Id say within 2 weeks we at leaast be back to phase one.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Pretty 80% was mentioned?

Id say within 2 weeks we at leaast be back to phase one.

Might get myself a 4th and 5th jab to BOOST the numbers.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

WA records country’s lowest COVID-19 death rate, prompting calls to ease restrictions

The state is recording a much lower death rate at this point in its outbreak than any of the three other jurisdictions that were also COVID-free before reopening.

www.watoday.com.au

 

[Forward Press]

Think despite the naysayers the numbers have proved that keeping the border closed four weeks longer has resulted in improved health outcomes. The key was delaying it so that triple vaccination numbers could have an impact.

Now whether you think it was worth it for the increased uncertainty and inevitable impact on things like hospitality and tourism is another matter. Of course, if the new omicron variant proves capable of vaccine evasiveness then it might also be pointless to have delayed. Or if pi comes around sooner and more dangerous than we thought.

 

[Chris_6678]

6172 today
4 in ICU ( Down 1)
134 Hospital
0 deaths

 

[DanWCE]

Think despite the naysayers the numbers have proved that keeping the border closed four weeks longer has resulted in improved health outcomes. The key was delaying it so that triple vaccination numbers could have an impact.

Now whether you think it was worth it for the increased uncertainty and inevitable impact on things like hospitality and tourism is another matter. Of course, if the new omicron variant proves capable of vaccine evasiveness then it might also be pointless to have delayed. Or if pi comes around sooner and more dangerous than we thought.

The move had merit, but I suspect some of the angst wasn't over the move itself but the lack of communication about why we did it and when we'd be moving the open day to. Understandably the answer to the latter wasn't available at the time but more open and honest dialogue around the intent behind the delay might have helped. Those who rushed out for the booster felt duped as well.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Nobody does communication well. Government, business, the West Coast Eagles, it doesn't matter, they're all shit.

Makes me wonder wtf is taught in those types of degrees.

 

[Rowan18]

Think despite the naysayers the numbers have proved that keeping the border closed four weeks longer has resulted in improved health outcomes. The key was delaying it so that triple vaccination numbers could have an impact.

Now whether you think it was worth it for the increased uncertainty and inevitable impact on things like hospitality and tourism is another matter. Of course, if the new omicron variant proves capable of vaccine evasiveness then it might also be pointless to have delayed. Or if pi comes around sooner and more dangerous than we thought.

I think most people would have accepted a 4 week delay to increase boosters if that is what was communicated to us. Instead we were told we had an indefinite delay, with no metrics linked to opening.

In the end, the justification for opening 4 weeks later was not because of boosters, but because public opinion turned on the Government and the CHO made public statements about waning immunity.

In short, the Government succeeded in spite of their strategy, not because of it.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I think most people would have accepted a 4 week delay to increase boosters if that is what was communicated to us. Instead we were told we had an indefinite delay, with no metrics linked to opening.

In the end, the justification for opening 4 weeks later was not because of boosters, but because public opinion turned on the Government and the CHO made public statements about waning immunity.

In short, the Government succeeded in spite of their strategy, not because of it.

Also because Omicron was well established locally thanks to horny old men, and local cases were dwarfing arrivals, so maintaining the border served no purpose anymore.

He also did announce a target when the delay happened:

"The aim is to get it [the third dose vaccination rate] up above at least 80 per cent, perhaps 90 per cent," he said.

"But what we are going to do is review the situation over February and watch what is occurring over east and work out what the best approach is for Western Australia."

The state currently has a third dose vaccination rate of 25.8 per cent in the population aged 16 and older.

WA Premier Mark McGowan says reopening state's border now would be 'reckless and irresponsible'

Premier Mark McGowan's decision to delay the WA border reopening has drawn mixed reactions, with businesses describing it as "devastating", while the WA boss of the AMA says it will give hospitals time to prepare for Omicron.

www.abc.net.au

Obviously we didn't get to 80% when the border opened (and still haven't) because again, the border wasn't serving its purpose anymore.

 

[Forward Press]

I think most people would have accepted a 4 week delay to increase boosters if that is what was communicated to us. Instead we were told we had an indefinite delay, with no metrics linked to opening.

In the end, the justification for opening 4 weeks later was not because of boosters, but because public opinion turned on the Government and the CHO made public statements about waning immunity.

In short, the Government succeeded in spite of their strategy, not because of it.

I thought it was because the omicron outbreak could no longer be reasonably contained and the delayed opening date would roughly match when community cases would vastly exceed interstate and international arrival cases.

Public opinion was still strongly in favour of a delay (iirc a poll done a week after the announcement of a delay indicated over two-thirds support).

And your last point is completely correct - no matter your thoughts, the government has succeeded and the results speak for themselves.

 

[Rowan18]

I thought it was because the omicron outbreak could no longer be reasonably contained and the delayed opening date would roughly match when community cases would vastly exceed interstate and international arrival cases.

Public opinion was still strongly in favour of a delay (iirc a poll done a week after the announcement of a delay indicated over two-thirds support).

And your last point is completely correct - no matter your thoughts, the government has succeeded and the results speak for themselves.

You're being horrendously naive if you don't realise the re-opening was all about politics, but at the risk of derailing this into another vaccine thread, we should probably leave it there.

 

[Seadog]

You're being horrendously naive if you don't realise the re-opening was all about politics, but at the risk of derailing this into another vaccine thread, we should probably leave it there.

People can assign whatever political motives they like and they have but thus far it has been a successful strategy.
I know it's dissapointing for some but I think it was due to a little more than luck.

 

[boondy]

Not sure if anyone else has mentioned this . If you stay a reasonable distance and recieve small/tiny exposure to the virus you can build up immunity . Impossible to regulate that but it is possible that some will be immune . Bus drivers , checkout chicks for example .

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Not sure if anyone else has mentioned this . If you stay a reasonable distance and recieve small/tiny exposure to the virus you can build up immunity . Impossible to regulate that but it is possible that some will be immune . Bus drivers , checkout chicks for example .

Where’s that info come from?