On India at 2.05, reckon they're a decent chance of pinching a win here with the Aussies losing two bowlers and an anchor batsman.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
There is truckloads of value to be had in the man of the match markets for the int t20, just as there was in the one dayers.
Safe bet to usually be the highest scoring batsmen on the winning team-
Simply forget the bowlers and allrounders, pick a team you think will win and put a few clams each on a couple of their best in-form batsmen.
I used this to great effect during the one dayers.
Missed smith in the first game, but got him for the second game @ 12.50 boosted (this came down to actual resulting odds of 7.50 after I account for the other losing man of the match bets I placed on the game)
Then got pandya in the 3rd game @ 21.25 boosted (actual return odds of 14.60 after accounting for other losing bets)
I think india will win tomorrow so I like the looks of kohli, rahul, pandya etc
So you hit a few juicy bets and you think there is truckloads of value.
Kind of like the lad who pashes on with a decent looking bird on the dancefloor and all of a sudden he thinks he is Brad Pitt.
Man of the match markets are notoriously hard to hit.
Using them as a proxy is even harder.
Will follow with interest, but im the king for a reason.
Pandya india top score/bumrah most ind wickets double paying $31 @ lads.
On the OZ side maxwell/zampa double @ $23 looks yummy value too.
Maddness
Well done on calling it an hour AFTER india shat the bed.
big call mate with them sitting at 5-stuff all at the time you decided to pipe up
Adding small stakes on shikar dwahan to hit 2 or more sixes @ $5.00 with TAB
it happens "more than 50% of the time" if you limit the timeframe to one that suits and includes games where they start $1.30-$1.50 versus Sri Lanka and West Indies
it's every chance to win but in a ~$1.80 game vs Australia it's absolutely not an odds on prop that "more than 50%" would suggest
So far in the 5 big bash games to date the first wicket method of dismissal has been:
3x caught
2 x lbw
Sportsbet allow you to multi (and boost) first dismissal = lbw and first dismissal caught = no... for a tidy $11 return.
Maybe the first handful of games are an outlier and there will be stuff all lbw first wickets for the rest of the tournament?
But for now, it's happening at a rate 4 times greater than the odds suggest.
Great analysisSo far in the 5 big bash games to date the first wicket method of dismissal has been:
3x caught
2 x lbw
Sportsbet allow you to multi (and boost) first dismissal = lbw and first dismissal caught = no... for a tidy $11 return.
Maybe the first handful of games are an outlier and there will be stuff all lbw first wickets for the rest of the tournament?
But for now, it's happening at a rate 4 times greater than the odds suggest.
Great analysis
Great value
Correct tip
3 lights
New clubhouse tipping leader, just what we need in time for bbl
On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Are spinners coming on to bowl earlier than last year? = more first wicket lbws?
It's probably a statistic anomaly, they happen from time to time and your sample size of 6 games is far too few to draw any conclusions. Expect regression to the mean to occur over the next few games.
Case study: 2011 AFL season
In 2011 the AFL introduced the interchange rule, whereby instead of having four players available for rotation there was now three and one substitute player and it remained to be seen what impact, if any, this would have on games. Nonetheless the season took a surprising turn in the first four rounds, with three draws taking place in just 32 games, a strike rate of almost 10%.
Round 1 - Melbourne drew with Sydney
Round 2 - St Kilda drew with Richmond
Round 4 - Essendon drew with Carlton
I distinctly recall reading an article by a footy journo, who I suspect was Jon Ralph, saying that, as a result of the interchange rule we would see more draws, as evidenced by the three draws in 4 rounds of footy. This is a guy who makes a living from writing about football players, not understanding basic mathematical concepts such as sample size and extrapolation.
That was the last draw of the season, and indeed the following 2012 season there was only 1 draw, and again in 2013 there was only 1 draw, all while the interchange rule, which was attributed as the reason for this statistical anomaly, remained in place.
Short answer is you've got lucky backing something that's come up more often than expected congrats, but I wouldn't up your stakes just yet, as there's a fair chance that, like Jon Ralph, you're interpreting things incorrectly.
and don't forget sportsbet allowing you to multi this is key, you're welcome