Ashes Cricket Betting

[pendlebury_10]

This is one of the all time melts from Louie, I actually fear what might happen as he attempts to double down.

 

[Nuggetz]

Please don’t be disingenuous brother. You provided a video of Marnus seeking to gain an advantage by batting a mile out of the crease and then the keeper throwing at the stumps. Johnny was batting deep in his crease and not seeking to gain any advantage. He walked down the pitch at the end of the over. You are well aware this is very different.

Once again brother, you say that this is the exact same. Is it, do you really believe that? Was it the end of the over? Had he just completed a run? A s**t act from Muccullum no doubt(that he admits was wrong) but nowhere near the exact same.

The rules of the game say that the ball is dead when both teams say that it is. There is nothing stopping either side doing what Carey did at the end of any over other than sportsmanship and decency. Maybe that’s why it’s a gentleman’s game. This was a desperate and cowardly move from a side that was scared shitless of losing.

Solid financial advice here. He is due, and up 144.2 units on the year despite the last couple of weeks.
Finally some sense talked in this thread.

He hardly moves his backfoot, so he's already in the crease. Johnny thought he would be out of the crease or leave the crease but he didn't. You can't just make things up...

Johnny did not wait until the over was finished because Carey barely caught the ball before he released it. Johnny incorrectly assumed he could dictate when the over is finished which he can't do as it's up to the umpires. Carey did not pause after catching the ball, he did not wait for any breaks, he threw the ball immediately while Johnny was still in his crease. The umpires dictate the end of overs not batsmen nor bowlers, if the umpires believed it was the end of over then they would've said not out. They didn't so he's out.

Now pay out or you're no different to the bookies who refuse to pay out on winnings because of some bogus error in odds.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

He hardly moves his backfoot, so he's already in the crease. Johnny thought he would be out of the crease or leave the crease but he didn't. You can't just make things up...

Johnny did not wait until the over was finished because Carey barely caught the ball before he released it. Johnny incorrectly assumed he could dictate when the over is finished which he can't do as it's up to the umpires. Carey did not pause after catching the ball, he did not wait for any breaks, he threw the ball immediately while Johnny was still in his crease. The umpires dictate the end of overs not batsmen nor bowlers, if the umpires believed it was the end of over then they would've said not out. They didn't so he's out.

Now pay out or you're no different to the bookies who refuse to pay out on winnings because of some bogus error in odds.

Did you provide footage of a bloke being ran out like Johnny or did you not? Yes or No.
Read the post properly(sincerely) and try again if you want:

Show me this Brother.
Not a bloke coming back for a second run, batting out of his crease or pushing for a run, but this “exact same thing” where a bloke is batting inside his crease, scratches the crease at the end of the over and then is runout as he walks up the pitch to speak to his mate.

I will bank transfer you $1000 if you are able to produce this.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

I really underestimated the level of nationalism that Degens feel towards the farken cricket side.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I’ve never seen it at any level where a bloke scratches the crease at the end of an over and then is run out as he walks up the pitch to speak to his mate.

I played for about ten seasons from juniors through to 1st XI seniors (country cricket) and never saw somebody who was in his crease while facing get run out like this.

Did see it happen with guys who batted out of their crease though.

Not defending Bairstow or attacking the Aussies, just saying this whole 'it happens all the time in park cricket' seems like bullshit to me.

Bairstow was in his crease when he thought the ball was dead, and then walked up the pitch, very different to batting out of your crease and getting caught out like this.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I really underestimated the level of nationalism that Degens feel towards the farken cricket side.

Only when the Aussies are winning. You should see the cricket board when the team is losing (or even just struggling mid-match).

It is cancer. Almost as embarrassing as the nonsense you see in livestream chatboxes from Indian fans.

 

[kickazz]

Thinking the series score of 4-0 is a good bet now.

Leeds looks like it will be pretty wet for the last couple of days. England might try to make a game of it (because they need to) but I don't see Australia risking a loss until the series itself is won.

Apart from that, there is just more upside for Australia - despite winning they have clearly shown that they are acknowledging where they went wrong (cf Stokes 4th innings) and will work to improve it. England seem content with blaming luck, Bairstow stumping and external factors.

 

[HeathySure]

I really underestimated the level of nationalism that Degens feel towards the farken cricket side.

As opposed to your pocket? Spoiler alert, i dont think they would have won anyway.

 

[Jugada]

Nothing helps degens form an opinion like skin in the game

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Here we go lads, a similar incident although not as egregious as the Bairstow one because Johnny even scratched the crease before walking out.

The result: Mcullum and Vettori confer and agree that it is NOT IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GAME to dismiss a man like this. They withdrew the appeal.
A true sportsmen and a gamblers man is our Baz.

 

[anabac]

Here we go lads, a similar incident although not as egregious as the Bairstow one because Johnny even scratched the crease before walking out.

The result: Mcullum and Vettori confer and agree that it is NOT IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GAME to dismiss a man like this. They withdrew the appeal.
A true sportsmen and a gamblers man is our Baz.

scratching the crease does not signify the end of an over or that the ball is dead. What is it about that, that you don't understand?

You seriously think Bairstow was in the right to leave his crease almost before its even hit the keepers gloves, and then because he did something stupid, the aussies should for some spiritual reason, give him a second chance?

You should be upset at Bairstow, he's the moron that left his crease when the ball was still live - and not just live but literally in motion on its way to his stumps. It's day 5 of an Ashes test, have some game awareness!

I 100% believe if the poms dismissed an Aussie this way they would absolutely have done the same thing and let the decision stand.

Anyway it's nearly game 3 so probably time for you to get over it but it's sure been fun.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

scratching the crease does not signify the end of an over or that the ball is dead. What is it about that, that you don't understand?

You seriously think Bairstow was in the right to leave his crease almost before its even hit the keepers gloves, and then because he did something stupid, the aussies should for some spiritual reason, give him a second chance?

You should be upset at Bairstow, he's the moron that left his crease when the ball was still live - and not just live but literally in motion on its way to his stumps. It's day 5 of an Ashes test, have some game awareness!

I 100% believe if the poms dismissed an Aussie this way they would absolutely have done the same thing and let the decision stand.

Anyway it's nearly game 3 so probably time for you to get over it but it's sure been fun.

Ok Mate, I am diametrically opposed to the entire message of your post here and I don’t think we’re ever going to agree on this issue for various reasons. I do however appreciate your postings in the various threads on here and think your a genuine person. So I propose we move on to the business of making money. The following message is not designed to oppose you or anyone else, but rather a rational play based on multiple factors. There is serious money to be made here.

The Inclusions of Wood and possibly Ali are huge for the Poms. Wood brings much needed X factor and Ali transforms a weak tail into a deep batting lineup. No Nathan Lyon for the Aussie’s is a big blow.

Headingley offers a significantly greater home ground advantage than the usually tame Lords crowd and is the home ground of multiple key England players, including Root and Bairstow.

The way England plays and their being 2 down in the series eliminates the possibility of the draw. England have been in winning positions in both games, with the Aussies falling over the line in the first game and what happened in the second game is what happened.

Factoring in all these things, I am stunned that the poms are rated as significantly worse than a coin flip chance. I personally think they should be strong favourites and will hereby declare the English to be veritable LOCKS to win this test@ the incredible price of $2.60
10 units

 

[anabac]

Ok Mate, I am diametrically opposed to the entire message of your post here and I don’t think we’re ever going to agree on this issue for various reasons. I do however appreciate your postings in the various threads on here and think your a genuine person. So I propose we move on to the business of making money. The following message is not designed to oppose you or anyone else, but rather a rational play based on multiple factors. There is serious money to be made here.

The Inclusions of Wood and possibly Ali are huge for the Poms. Wood brings much needed X factor and Ali transforms a weak tail into a deep batting lineup. No Nathan Lyon for the Aussie’s is a big blow.

Headingley offers a significantly greater home ground advantage than the usually tame Lords crowd and is the home ground of multiple key England players, including Root and Bairstow.

The way England plays and their being 2 down in the series eliminates the possibility of the draw. England have been in winning positions in both games, with the Aussies falling over the line in the first game and what happened in the second game is what happened.

Factoring in all these things, I am stunned that the poms are rated as significantly worse than a coin flip chance. I personally think they should be strong favourites and will hereby declare the English to be veritable LOCKS to win this test@ the incredible price of $2.60
10 units

You're on tilt but good luck to you big man.

Agree Lyon is a big out, but let's face it we just won the 2nd test without him so we should be ok.

Inclusion of Ali is great for the Aussies if it happens. A man who got pulled out of retirement to play game 1 and we all know how that ended.

All the best to you Louie.

 

[HeathySure]

As a fellow long shot punter but only on the horses calling a $2.40 chance a long shot breaks my brain! Long shots are 10/1 in my mind!

 

[Long Shot Louie]

As a fellow long shot punter but only on the horses calling a $2.40 chance a long shot breaks my brain! Long shots are 10/1 in my mind!

I called it a LOCK.

 

[Fabab]

I called it a LOCK.

So what?

 

[Long Shot Louie]

So what?

Didn’t call it a Long shot, called it a lock. Why are AusCricket nuffs like this.

This is the strongest side and the biggest home ground advantage that the English have had all series.

I was bullish on them before and now even more so.

Helps that they are remaining steadfast in the superior Bazball ideology as well.

 

[GotGameButNoName]

The way England plays and their being 2 down in the series eliminates the possibility of the draw. England have been in winning positions in both games, with the Aussies falling over the line in the first game and what happened in the second game is what happened.

You should probably lay the draw then. Although that is essentially betting against English weather so likely impossible to quantify EV.

"England have been in winning positions in both games." I'll give you the first test - if Stokes holds onto that grab England win. But at Lords England were behind on WinViz from the end of day one and at no stage recovered enough to have a winning probability. Indeed, if Stokes had gotten them home it would have been one of the wildest underdog Ashes run chases in a hundred forty odd year sample size.

FWIW IMO "Bazball" is actually rather clueless and brain dead. The best teams always have multiple avenues to victory. The best teams are able to enact multiple plans and execute them. The best teams account for all the variables before deciding whether to attack or defend. This attack at all cost shit does none of that and makes England utterly predictable.

Throwing haymakers can be a valid strategy but may not be best employed against a counter puncher. This is just about where I feel England are in this Ashes series.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

You should probably lay the draw then. Although that is essentially betting against English weather so likely impossible to quantify EV.

"England have been in winning positions in both games." I'll give you the first test - if Stokes holds onto that grab England win. But at Lords England were behind on WinViz from the end of day one and at no stage recovered enough to have a winning probability. Indeed, if Stokes had gotten them home it would have been one of the wildest underdog Ashes run chases in a hundred forty odd year sample size.

FWIW IMO "Bazball" is actually rather clueless and brain dead. The best teams always have multiple avenues to victory. The best teams are able to enact multiple plans and execute them. The best teams account for all the variables before deciding whether to attack or defend. This attack at all cost s**t does none of that and makes England utterly predictable.

Throwing haymakers can be a valid strategy but may not be best employed against a counter puncher. This is just about where I feel England are in this Ashes series.

I reckon they had a winning probability when they were $1.65 with Stokes on 150. Fifteen minutes before the game ended. I think the Aussies were a bit worried when Stokes and Bairstow were in as well, based off the nature of the Bairstow dismissal.

We have to Remember that Bazball England won 11 from 13 games before this series and I think they’ve been pretty unlucky in this series.

It really baffles me why the media, bookmakers and general public regard them as being so shite.

I think it’s a real opportunity to make serious money backing them in this series.

 

[Fabab]

I reckon they had a winning probability when they were $1.65 with Stokes on 150. Fifteen minutes before the game ended. I think the Aussies were a bit worried when Stokes and Bairstow were in as well, based off the nature of the Bairstow dismissal.

We have to Remember that Bazball England won 11 from 13 games before this series and I think they’ve been pretty unlucky in this series.

It really baffles me why the media, bookmakers and general public regard them as being so shite.

I think it’s a real opportunity to make serious money backing them in this series.

They won both tosses and had the best of conditions in both tests how is that unlucky?

 

[GotGameButNoName]

It really baffles me why the media, bookmakers and general public regard them as being so shite.

I don't think people regard them as shite. I do think most recognize that outside of Stokes they have a shortage of real match winners.

 

[GotGameButNoName]

They won both tosses and had the best of conditions in both tests how is that unlucky?

It was the Aussie spinner Lyon that tore his calf and left them a bowler short.... but the English were unlucky?

 

[Long Shot Louie]

They won both tosses and had the best of conditions in both tests how is that unlucky?

What about in the first test when they came out for a 10 minute session in the rain and the ball actually moved, causing England to lose 2 quick wickets and turning the match on its head. Not great conditions.

It was the Aussie spinner Lyon that tore his calf and left them a bowler short.... but the English were unlucky?

England didn’t even have a spinner in the 2nd test and their fast bowlers were all 132km one paced. Their attack here looks much better and more varied with Wood and Moeen in it.
By the Time Lyon went off the game had well and truly degenerated into a Bouncer fest on a 2 paced wicket so I don’t think his loss was felt as much as it could have been. I also think that sending him out to bat was a move of desperation and showed that the Aussies fear the chasing ability of Bazball and are reacting to it.

 

[fireman mal]

What about in the first test when they came out for a 10 minute session in the rain and the ball actually moved, causing England to lose 2 quick wickets and turning the match on its head. Not great conditions.

England didn’t even have a spinner in the 2nd test and their fast bowlers were all 132km one paced. Their attack here looks much better and more varied with Wood and Moeen in it.
By the Time Lyon went off the game had well and truly degenerated into a Bouncer fest on a 2 paced wicket so I don’t think his loss was felt as much as it could have been. I also think that sending him out to bat was a move of desperation and showed that the Aussies fear the chasing ability of Bazball and are reacting to it.

Long Shot I am totally in agreeance with you. The dismissal was against fair play. It was unsportsman like. Yes it was out but it is not a fair way to dismiss a batsman and consequently win the test.

Its still Sandpaper Aussies and we could have gone a long way in repairing this image if we had played fair. Just my opinion. Agree or not I dont give a rats ar$e.

 

[fireman mal]

What about in the first test when they came out for a 10 minute session in the rain and the ball actually moved, causing England to lose 2 quick wickets and turning the match on its head. Not great conditions.

England didn’t even have a spinner in the 2nd test and their fast bowlers were all 132km one paced. Their attack here looks much better and more varied with Wood and Moeen in it.
By the Time Lyon went off the game had well and truly degenerated into a Bouncer fest on a 2 paced wicket so I don’t think his loss was felt as much as it could have been. I also think that sending him out to bat was a move of desperation and showed that the Aussies fear the chasing ability of Bazball and are reacting to it.

Long Shot while I have yopu here, whats your Long Shot Louie tip for the AFL ? You have monstered it again this year.