Danger_Porpus
Debutant
Cheers mate, appreciate it.
Any particular narrative/sector you're targeting? Sounds like AI and RWA are the main plays.
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Cheers mate, appreciate it.
Any particular narrative/sector you're targeting? Sounds like AI and RWA are the main plays.
Nothing in particular.
Dabbling a bit into memes.
I also think exchange and native tokens are ignored far too much. Think stuff like pancakeswap, BNB, Ton, Solana, etc. You need them to do business on DeFi blockchains and exchanges, so in a bullrun, they generally pump quite a lot.
AI and DePin narratives seem pretty promising, although very much a long game.
Other than that, I'm teaching myself to daytrade and have just been focusing on Solana, as it's a little more volatile than BTC/Eth but not so much as meme coins. I'm pretty much focusing on trend retracements, coupled with supply and demand as a strategy for now, which I seem to have 'clicked' with.
Honestly, the strategy doesn't really matter, it's your understanding of it, your own psychology and recording your data that all feed into achieving growth in your account balance. It's pretty fun but takes quite some time for it to all start making sense.
Danger_Porpus
Debutant
Yeah I agree, I've grabbed some Uniswap as Eth should perform well due to the ETFs. I know pancakeswap killed it last run, and of course Ton and Solana being the new kids with a lot of attention at the moment should perform really well. It does seem like a safer play while still being able to bring good profits.
Apparently for Pankcake swap the data gives a price prediction in 2025 of $36.85, MC of 10,559,303,839, so with a current price of $2.03 if it could go near that you would be cheering.
I'd assume you would still sell the AI and Depin coins in the pump wouldn't you? Then purchase later on, when the prices dip again. That seems to be the play people have been mentioning with a lot picking these narratives.
Ahh nice, I'm definitely looking forward to learning all of the strategies and hopefully being able to understand the charts/data a lot better. Shouldn't change anything for you as you are day trading however I have heard that there may be some big issues about to arise with Solana, apparently the people high up have been doing some dodgy dealings and it may be coming back to bite them.
Yeah it took me far too long to concentrate more on entry points, FOMO would kick in way too easily at first. Pretty stupid, especially if its a meme coin and 1000s are being created each day haha. How long would you say it took you to start picking up on things that have made a difference in your outcomes?
Apparently for Pankcake swap the data gives a price prediction in 2025 of $36.85, MC of 10,559,303,839, so with a current price of $2.03 if it could go near that you would be cheering.
I'd assume you would still sell the AI and Depin coins in the pump wouldn't you? Then purchase later on, when the prices dip again. That seems to be the play people have been mentioning with a lot picking these narratives.
Ahh nice, I'm definitely looking forward to learning all of the strategies and hopefully being able to understand the charts/data a lot better. Shouldn't change anything for you as you are day trading however I have heard that there may be some big issues about to arise with Solana, apparently the people high up have been doing some dodgy dealings and it may be coming back to bite them.
Yeah it took me far too long to concentrate more on entry points, FOMO would kick in way too easily at first. Pretty stupid, especially if its a meme coin and 1000s are being created each day haha. How long would you say it took you to start picking up on things that have made a difference in your outcomes?
Hey mate! Appreciate sharing your thesis with us.
Consolidation periods can always go longer than most are willing to be patient, but I would still be very surprised if July and even August aren't green.
Neither BTC or ETH have lost bullish structures since this cycle started heating up last October, this is just a standard US Summer lull. Things should start to heat up again once the ETH ETF goes live in a couple of weeks. The S&P500 gains are coming from AI, the majority of stocks that makeup the index have been travelling just as well as crypto since March.
Altcoins will be fine eventually. Global liquidity has just printed a 3rd consecutive higher low since bottoming in October 2022 and macro conditions are rapidly improving, especially with the current admin looking very unlikely to get back in after that debate last week.
A long time but that's probably more due to the fact that I thought I could just wing it for ages and it'd all work out. That definitely worked on a lot of occasions but it's just dumb luck.
I've been working on 2 daytrading strategies this month that's netted me a 50% account size increase(on an account that started with $103.5 USD), so I'm going to persist with these until the end of the month so I can accumulate enough data to know if these are viable over a longer period of time. So far it's working well but the most important part is I'm now finally getting better at managing my risk, as in the past, I'd set a stop lost, watch my trade go into profit and never adjust it, as I was stubborn. Then the trend would reverse and I'd get stopped out, instead of exiting the trade at break even, or a tiny profit.
It's this weird mindset where you'd rather risk losing more money than be wrong, but you can't be profitable like that, lol.
The level of bearishness on my CT timeline right now is quite astounding tbh.
Since coming off the bear market lows and reclaiming the 200D EMA in January 2023 (pink line below), the 200D EMA for $BTC has only been lost TWICE on HTFs before today. Once in March 2023 for 2 days (reclaimed before weekly close); the 2nd time for 1.5-2 months from late August until mid October 2023, after which we ran from 27-74k over 150 days.
The worst part of that drop below the 200D EMA last August was the first big red daily candle we are seeing now; after that it was largely sideways chop until the proper reclaim in October (had one brief fakeout in September).
Also, since then we have had a steady increase in global liquidity (yellow line) and a spot ETF go live with record inflows since day one. Oh, and the favourite for the US Presidential election in 4 months is very pro crypto and using it to get votes. This is NOT how bear markets start!
Funnily enough, the last time BTC lost the 200D EMA everyone thought that 25k could no longer hold as we had tested it several times over a few months... nek minut
Last cycle, BTC only lost the 200D EMA post the COVID crash during the mid year lull from May-July of 2021.
Since coming off the bear market lows and reclaiming the 200D EMA in January 2023 (pink line below), the 200D EMA for $BTC has only been lost TWICE on HTFs before today. Once in March 2023 for 2 days (reclaimed before weekly close); the 2nd time for 1.5-2 months from late August until mid October 2023, after which we ran from 27-74k over 150 days.
The worst part of that drop below the 200D EMA last August was the first big red daily candle we are seeing now; after that it was largely sideways chop until the proper reclaim in October (had one brief fakeout in September).
Also, since then we have had a steady increase in global liquidity (yellow line) and a spot ETF go live with record inflows since day one. Oh, and the favourite for the US Presidential election in 4 months is very pro crypto and using it to get votes. This is NOT how bear markets start!
Funnily enough, the last time BTC lost the 200D EMA everyone thought that 25k could no longer hold as we had tested it several times over a few months... nek minut
Last cycle, BTC only lost the 200D EMA post the COVID crash during the mid year lull from May-July of 2021.
Don't tell me that, I just placed a short on Solana
Haha, dangerous shorting after a big dump mate!Don't tell me that, I just placed a short on Solana
Mt Gox moving from cold storage
German gov selling again
US July 4 holiday so ETFs not trading
It was the perfect storm for generating some mass panic.
Should be fine. This support level isn't much chop and it's not a huge demand zone. Next one down is though. I actually picked the exact top of the dump, then closed the trade at a 2-1 as I was typing a post in the other thread, lol. Would've got a 20-1 RR and probably tripled my account size, fml.
Fair mate, still think we've seen most of this dump and either it's a rapid recovery into the weekly close, or chop until August before giga sending into Q1 2025. Whatever scenario plays out, the biggest gains of this bull I strongly believe are coming within the next 6-9 months.
PoppedCorn
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How long till it pumps after the halving?
Ages to go yet.
Enjoy the dip buying chances
Ages to go yet.
Enjoy the dip buying chances
Think it's got a good couple of weeks of bearish movement yet before it settles into a range. Was massively overheated until recently, so needs time to cool off. Even at $50k, it's still only a 50% or so retracement from ATH, so not much of a big deal.
beez
A*mazing
Yeah, was end of Feb in 2020, which was around 6 months after the halving. Still a fair way to go before things get truly crazy, I believe.
That was before the Trump pro crypto narrative started to emerge, I see the election as bullish for markets if Trump gets in (which is very likely after the debate last week). IF the election becomes a sell the news event and we peak before then, it also wouldn't surprise me, but the higher odds play for me now is Q1 2025.
I don't have a crystal ball btw, I adjust with the conditions and data in front of me and that has certainly seen a major shift in the last 3 months.
It's been in a range for 4 months already between 58-74k, nothing has changed. The days of 50% retracements for BTC are very likely gone with the ETFs in play, as seen by the strong reaction each and every time we have come down to the bottom of the range.
Until I see a deviation below the range on a timeframe of weekly and above, this is simply another liquidity grab at the bottom of the range before another attempt at a push to new highs.
Yeah but said range was just cooling off from the massive pump from a few months ago.
If you subscribe to Elliot wave theory, this looks like the 4th move of an uptrend, so one potential pump to around $100k, before an ABC correction, which may include a blow off top like last time, before a downtrend into the next bear market.
But who knows really? So much more institutional buying and regulation this time around.
Had a bloke at the pub tell me last week it's 100% going to zero, because he's related to the Lloyd(auction house) family and knows that all the big players will exit on Jan 24th once the regulation hits.
Could be batshit crazy, or a complete genius.
Who knows? It's all just speculation in the end, but it is fun and you can make money from it.
I think you know the true answer to that.
I just play to support/resistance levels and monitor liquidity inflows/outflows and right now there is nothing to suggest this is anything but a brief shakeout before the next leg up. A brief shakeout could last a week, it could last a month, all I know is that this market is trading significantly higher within 6-9 months and BTC has gone well past 100k and ETH 8-10k.
beez
A*mazing
My current thesis is I don't have a ****ing clue.
But also, I don't pretend to understand global liquidity, interest rates and TA. Even though I do actually understand them, I don't pretend to be able to use them as predictive tools for financial markets.
beez
A*mazing
And just as a paradoxical aside, I do love all my US CT friends who are almost exclusively Trump supporters post images celebrating the 4th of July.
And the funny thing is they wouldn't even understand the irony.
And the funny thing is they wouldn't even understand the irony.
Get into AI where FET is curently good value albeit a dip in the merge to form the newly minted Artificial Superintelligence Alliance
Ok, so let me get this right. You’re an investor who says that they understand tools which the entire globe uses to make decisions in markets, but you have no strategy for your investments? But you laugh at people that do take the time to understand these tools and use them to help with investment strategies? I don’t pretend to be an investment guru, but I also don’t just go in blind with my investments.
ChatGPT, make that make sense for me please!
beez
A*mazing
Where did I say I have no strategy? I said I have no ****ing clue what the market is going to do. Very different.
You provide the thread with fantastic insights from different data sets which I appreciate, but you speak in absolutes about x,y and z happening which invariably turns out to be wrong.
When 80k happens I'll be as happy as you. I just don't pretend to have an idea of when it is going to occur.
I aim to not speak in absolutes, all I try to estimate is ranges. I just said I see a peak happening within the next 6-9 months, that’s hardly giving an absolute. I’ve also provided factors I see playing into this scenario, but again of course they aren’t absolutes, it’s a prediction based on the data currently available.
