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bzparkes said:
Where we currently are is a retrace to the bottom of the current trend, which is still bullish if you look at the BTC daily chart.

I don't have it in front of my but this looks like a potential 4th Elliot wave move for BTC(purely from memory of looking at it earlier today, could be completely wrong), so if that's the case, there still another leg up to the 5th move, then a correction to the downside should break the tend.

That's if the current trend doesn't break down, of course but BTC was massively overheated earlier in the year, so it's only natural for it to cool off for a while.

As for memes, still think there's plenty ahead for them. Just look at the mainstream news cycle for instance. Pretty much nothing about crypto, even when BTC hit the ATH. Last run it was on the news 24/7.

I just don't think the institution's have quite had their fill yet.

Give it another couple of months and if/when the MSM start running constant stories in it, look to start exiting.
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Cheers mate, appreciate it.

Any particular narrative/sector you're targeting? Sounds like AI and RWA are the main plays.
 
Danger_Porpus said:
Cheers mate, appreciate it.

Any particular narrative/sector you're targeting? Sounds like AI and RWA are the main plays.
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Nothing in particular.

Dabbling a bit into memes.

I also think exchange and native tokens are ignored far too much. Think stuff like pancakeswap, BNB, Ton, Solana, etc. You need them to do business on DeFi blockchains and exchanges, so in a bullrun, they generally pump quite a lot.

AI and DePin narratives seem pretty promising, although very much a long game.

Other than that, I'm teaching myself to daytrade and have just been focusing on Solana, as it's a little more volatile than BTC/Eth but not so much as meme coins. I'm pretty much focusing on trend retracements, coupled with supply and demand as a strategy for now, which I seem to have 'clicked' with.

Honestly, the strategy doesn't really matter, it's your understanding of it, your own psychology and recording your data that all feed into achieving growth in your account balance. It's pretty fun but takes quite some time for it to all start making sense.
 
Yeah I agree, I've grabbed some Uniswap as Eth should perform well due to the ETFs. I know pancakeswap killed it last run, and of course Ton and Solana being the new kids with a lot of attention at the moment should perform really well. It does seem like a safer play while still being able to bring good profits.

Apparently for Pankcake swap the data gives a price prediction in 2025 of $36.85, MC of 10,559,303,839, so with a current price of $2.03 if it could go near that you would be cheering.

I'd assume you would still sell the AI and Depin coins in the pump wouldn't you? Then purchase later on, when the prices dip again. That seems to be the play people have been mentioning with a lot picking these narratives.

Ahh nice, I'm definitely looking forward to learning all of the strategies and hopefully being able to understand the charts/data a lot better. Shouldn't change anything for you as you are day trading however I have heard that there may be some big issues about to arise with Solana, apparently the people high up have been doing some dodgy dealings and it may be coming back to bite them.

Yeah it took me far too long to concentrate more on entry points, FOMO would kick in way too easily at first. Pretty stupid, especially if its a meme coin and 1000s are being created each day haha. How long would you say it took you to start picking up on things that have made a difference in your outcomes?
 

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Danger_Porpus said:
Hi Fellas. If anyone is interested in playing the meme coin game I may have found a decent one. It's called Kendu Inu on Eth and its part of the Shiba Inu ecosystem, the dev of Kendu was in Shiba early on and has had Kendu featured in Shiba Inu Magazine plus they've had joint spaces and there is an agreement of a partnership down the line. Along with that they are producing their own energy drink, have had multiple billboards in NY and reached 260mill Marketcap/listed on 12+CEX with all organic growth from the community, nothing paid. Seemed to perform better than most in this crappy period, has been hit a bit recently however, but was even named Coinmarketcaps number 1 alt-coin to buy. If it could do even half what Shiba did last bull run then it could be huge.
Anyway it is still a meme coin at the moment so DYOR, I joined the telegram chat and was impressed by the work ethic of their team so chucked in a few bucks.

Also I'm sure you guys have more knowledge than me, just started reading Elliot Waves Made Simple, but would you say this next big leg-up is close, days/weeks, and what's your expectations compared to the last halving? Also I built up a portfolio of utility alt-coins and they've just been bleeding, as BACCS said, I've heard it will be their turn to run next. Would you expect Memes to continue to perform well, they've been the only thing going alright lately, or do you think they've had their time?
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Hey mate! Appreciate sharing your thesis with us.

Consolidation periods can always go longer than most are willing to be patient, but I would still be very surprised if July and even August aren't green.

Neither BTC or ETH have lost bullish structures since this cycle started heating up last October, this is just a standard US Summer lull. Things should start to heat up again once the ETH ETF goes live in a couple of weeks. The S&P500 gains are coming from AI, the majority of stocks that makeup the index have been travelling just as well as crypto since March.
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Altcoins will be fine eventually. Global liquidity has just printed a 3rd consecutive higher low since bottoming in October 2022 and macro conditions are rapidly improving, especially with the current admin looking very unlikely to get back in after that debate last week.
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Danger_Porpus said:
How long would you say it took you to start picking up on things that have made a difference in your outcomes?
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A long time but that's probably more due to the fact that I thought I could just wing it for ages and it'd all work out. That definitely worked on a lot of occasions but it's just dumb luck.

I've been working on 2 daytrading strategies this month that's netted me a 50% account size increase(on an account that started with $103.5 USD), so I'm going to persist with these until the end of the month so I can accumulate enough data to know if these are viable over a longer period of time. So far it's working well but the most important part is I'm now finally getting better at managing my risk, as in the past, I'd set a stop lost, watch my trade go into profit and never adjust it, as I was stubborn. Then the trend would reverse and I'd get stopped out, instead of exiting the trade at break even, or a tiny profit.

It's this weird mindset where you'd rather risk losing more money than be wrong, but you can't be profitable like that, lol.
 
The level of bearishness on my CT timeline right now is quite astounding tbh.

Since coming off the bear market lows and reclaiming the 200D EMA in January 2023 (pink line below), the 200D EMA for $BTC has only been lost TWICE on HTFs before today. Once in March 2023 for 2 days (reclaimed before weekly close); the 2nd time for 1.5-2 months from late August until mid October 2023, after which we ran from 27-74k over 150 days.

The worst part of that drop below the 200D EMA last August was the first big red daily candle we are seeing now; after that it was largely sideways chop until the proper reclaim in October (had one brief fakeout in September).

Also, since then we have had a steady increase in global liquidity (yellow line) and a spot ETF go live with record inflows since day one. Oh, and the favourite for the US Presidential election in 4 months is very pro crypto and using it to get votes. This is NOT how bear markets start!

hv2u6frr.png

Funnily enough, the last time BTC lost the 200D EMA everyone thought that 25k could no longer hold as we had tested it several times over a few months... nek minut

Last cycle, BTC only lost the 200D EMA post the COVID crash during the mid year lull from May-July of 2021.
 
BACCS said:
Haha, dangerous shorting after a big dump mate!

Mt Gox moving from cold storage
German gov selling again
US July 4 holiday so ETFs not trading

It was the perfect storm for generating some mass panic.
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Should be fine. This support level isn't much chop and it's not a huge demand zone. Next one down is though. I actually picked the exact top of the dump, then closed the trade at a 2-1 as I was typing a post in the other thread, lol. Would've got a 20-1 RR and probably tripled my account size, fml.
 
bzparkes said:
Should be fine. This support level isn't much chop and it's not a huge demand zone. Next one down is though. I actually picked the exact top of the dump, then closed the trade at a 2-1 as I was typing a post in the other thread, lol. Would've got a 20-1 RR and probably tripled my account size, fml.
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Fair mate, still think we've seen most of this dump and either it's a rapid recovery into the weekly close, or chop until August before giga sending into Q1 2025. Whatever scenario plays out, the biggest gains of this bull I strongly believe are coming within the next 6-9 months.
 
BACCS said:
Fair mate, still think we've seen most of this dump and either it's a rapid recovery into the weekly close, or chop until August before giga sending into Q1 2025. Whatever scenario plays out, the biggest gains of this bull I strongly believe are coming within the next 6-9 months.
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Think it's got a good couple of weeks of bearish movement yet before it settles into a range. Was massively overheated until recently, so needs time to cool off. Even at $50k, it's still only a 50% or so retracement from ATH, so not much of a big deal.
 
BACCS said:
Fair mate, still think we've seen most of this dump and either it's a rapid recovery into the weekly close, or chop until August before giga sending into Q1 2025. Whatever scenario plays out, the biggest gains of this bull I strongly believe are coming within the next 6-9 months.
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What?

You've been saying top is before Nov? That's four months?
 

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beez said:
What?

You've been saying top is before Nov? That's four months?
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That was before the Trump pro crypto narrative started to emerge, I see the election as bullish for markets if Trump gets in (which is very likely after the debate last week). IF the election becomes a sell the news event and we peak before then, it also wouldn't surprise me, but the higher odds play for me now is Q1 2025.

I don't have a crystal ball btw, I adjust with the conditions and data in front of me and that has certainly seen a major shift in the last 3 months.
 
bzparkes said:
Think it's got a good couple of weeks of bearish movement yet before it settles into a range. Was massively overheated until recently, so needs time to cool off. Even at $50k, it's still only a 50% or so retracement from ATH, so not much of a big deal.
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It's been in a range for 4 months already between 58-74k, nothing has changed. The days of 50% retracements for BTC are very likely gone with the ETFs in play, as seen by the strong reaction each and every time we have come down to the bottom of the range.

Until I see a deviation below the range on a timeframe of weekly and above, this is simply another liquidity grab at the bottom of the range before another attempt at a push to new highs.
 
BACCS said:
It's been in a range for 4 months already between 58-74k, nothing has changed. The days of 50% retracements for BTC are very likely gone with the ETFs in play, as seen by the strong reaction each and every time we have come down to the bottom of the range.

Until I see a deviation below the range on a timeframe of weekly and above, this is simply another liquidity grab at the bottom of the range before another attempt at a push to new highs.
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Yeah but said range was just cooling off from the massive pump from a few months ago.

If you subscribe to Elliot wave theory, this looks like the 4th move of an uptrend, so one potential pump to around $100k, before an ABC correction, which may include a blow off top like last time, before a downtrend into the next bear market.

But who knows really? So much more institutional buying and regulation this time around.

Had a bloke at the pub tell me last week it's 100% going to zero, because he's related to the Lloyd(auction house) family and knows that all the big players will exit on Jan 24th once the regulation hits.

Could be batshit crazy, or a complete genius.

Who knows? It's all just speculation in the end, but it is fun and you can make money from it.
 
bzparkes said:
Yeah but said range was just cooling off from the massive pump from a few months ago.

If you subscribe to Elliot wave theory, this looks like the 4th move of an uptrend, so one potential pump to around $100k, before an ABC correction, which may include a blow off top like last time, before a downtrend into the next bear market.

But who knows really? So much more institutional buying and regulation this time around.

Had a bloke at the pub tell me last week it's 100% going to zero, because he's related to the Lloyd(auction house) family and knows that all the big players will exit on Jan 24th once the regulation hits.

Could be batshit crazy, or a complete genius.

Who knows? It's all just speculation in the end, but it is fun and you can make money from it.
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I think you know the true answer to that.

I just play to support/resistance levels and monitor liquidity inflows/outflows and right now there is nothing to suggest this is anything but a brief shakeout before the next leg up. A brief shakeout could last a week, it could last a month, all I know is that this market is trading significantly higher within 6-9 months and BTC has gone well past 100k and ETH 8-10k.
 
BACCS said:
Not sure what you are laughing at beez, if you stay stuck in certain biases you are dead in this market.

I've given a very detailed outline of how I see the current market conditions, what's your thesis?
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My current thesis is I don't have a ****ing clue.

But also, I don't pretend to understand global liquidity, interest rates and TA. Even though I do actually understand them, I don't pretend to be able to use them as predictive tools for financial markets.
 
And just as a paradoxical aside, I do love all my US CT friends who are almost exclusively Trump supporters post images celebrating the 4th of July.

And the funny thing is they wouldn't even understand the irony.
 
beez said:
And just as a paradoxical aside, I do love all my US CT friends who are almost exclusively Trump supporters post images celebrating the 4th of July.

And the funny thing is they wouldn't even understand the irony.
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Get into AI where FET is curently good value albeit a dip in the merge to form the newly minted Artificial Superintelligence Alliance
 
beez said:
My current thesis is I don't have a ****ing clue.

But also, I don't pretend to understand global liquidity, interest rates and TA. Even though I do actually understand them, I don't pretend to be able to use them as predictive tools for financial markets.
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Ok, so let me get this right. You’re an investor who says that they understand tools which the entire globe uses to make decisions in markets, but you have no strategy for your investments? But you laugh at people that do take the time to understand these tools and use them to help with investment strategies? I don’t pretend to be an investment guru, but I also don’t just go in blind with my investments.

ChatGPT, make that make sense for me please!
 
BACCS said:
Ok, so let me get this right. You’re an investor who says that they understand tools which the entire globe uses to make decisions in markets, but you have no strategy for your investments? But you laugh at people that do take the time to understand these tools and use them to help with investment strategies? I don’t pretend to be an investment guru, but I also don’t just go in blind with my investments.

ChatGPT, make that make sense for me please!
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Where did I say I have no strategy? I said I have no ****ing clue what the market is going to do. Very different.

You provide the thread with fantastic insights from different data sets which I appreciate, but you speak in absolutes about x,y and z happening which invariably turns out to be wrong.

When 80k happens I'll be as happy as you. I just don't pretend to have an idea of when it is going to occur.
 
beez said:
Where did I say I have no strategy? I said I have no ****ing clue what the market is going to do. Very different.

You provide the thread with fantastic insights from different data sets which I appreciate, but you speak in absolutes about x,y and z happening which invariably turns out to be wrong.

When 80k happens I'll be as happy as you. I just don't pretend to have an idea of when it is going to occur.
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I aim to not speak in absolutes, all I try to estimate is ranges. I just said I see a peak happening within the next 6-9 months, that’s hardly giving an absolute. I’ve also provided factors I see playing into this scenario, but again of course they aren’t absolutes, it’s a prediction based on the data currently available.
 
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