Prediction Crystal Ball 2024 Edition. Who makes it?

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Art Vandelay_

Art Vandelay_

TheBrownDog
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Oct 28, 2012
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AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Bushrangers - Tottenham
The qualification is 100 games at Geelong. Those already past the mark or traded in and past 100 combined games excluded.

4 - Tanner Bruhn
6 - Toby Conway
7 - Shaun Mannagh
9 - Max Holmes
10 - Mitch Knevitt
11 - Mitchell Edwards
13 - Jhye Clark
14 - Connor O'Sullivan
16 - Sam De Koning
17 - Lawson Humphries
18 - Tyson Stengle
19 - Phoenix Foster
15 - George Stevens
20 - James Willis
21 - Oliver Wiltshire
28 - Ollie Dempsey
31 - Oscar Murdoch
33 - Shannon Neale
34 - Oisin Mullin
36 - Oliver Henry
37 - Joe Furphy
39 - Zach Guthrie
40 - Ted Clohesy
43 - Emerson Jeka
45 - Brad Close



4 - Tanner Bruhn Yes
6 - Toby Conway Yes
7 - Shaun Mannagh Yes
9 - Max Holmes Yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt No
11 - Mitchell Edwards No
13 - Jhye Clark Yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan Yes
16 - Sam De Koning Yes
17 - Lawson Humphries Yes
18 - Tyson Stengle Yes
19 - Phoenix Foster No
15 - George Stevens No
20 - James Willis No
21 - Oliver Wiltshire No
28 - Ollie Dempsey Yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch No
33 - Shannon Neale Yes
34 - Oisin Mullin No
36 - Oliver Henry Yes
37 - Joe Furphy No
39 - Zach Guthrie Yes
40 - Ted Clohesy No
43 - Emerson Jeka No
45 - Brad Close Yes
 
4 - Tanner Bruhn Yes
6 - Toby Conway Yes
7 - Shaun Mannagh Yes
9 - Max Holmes Yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt No
11 - Edwards Yes, but not at GFC
13 - Jhye Clark Yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan Yes
16 - Sam De Koning Yes
17 - Lawson Humphries Yes
18 - Tyson Stengle Yes
19 - Phoenix Foster No
15 - George Stevens No
20 - James Willis No
21 - Oliver Wiltshire No
28 - Ollie Dempsey Yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch No
33 - Shannon Neale Yes
34 - Oisin Mullin Yes
36 - Oliver Henry Yes
37 - Joe Furphy No
39 - Zach Guthrie Yes
40 - Ted Clohesy Yes
43 - Emerson Jeka No
45 - Brad Close Yes
 
Kobe Gryant said:
4 - Tanner Bruhn Yes
6 - Toby Conway Yes
7 - Shaun Mannagh Yes
9 - Max Holmes Yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt No
11 - Edwards Yes, but not at GFC
13 - Jhye Clark Yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan Yes
16 - Sam De Koning Yes
17 - Lawson Humphries Yes
18 - Tyson Stengle Yes
19 - Phoenix Foster No
15 - George Stevens No
20 - James Willis No
21 - Oliver Wiltshire No
28 - Ollie Dempsey Yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch No
33 - Shannon Neale Yes
34 - Oisin Mullin Yes
36 - Oliver Henry Yes
37 - Joe Furphy No
39 - Zach Guthrie Yes
40 - Ted Clohesy Yes
43 - Emerson Jeka No
45 - Brad Close Yes
Click to expand...
This matches my thoughts based on ability. Still some dead wood to cut from the list at the end of the year
 

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Warhorse said:
This matches my thoughts based on ability. Still some dead wood to cut from the list at the end of the year
Click to expand...
Who do you think?

I've got Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy, Hardie, Murdoch, Foster, Willis, Parfitt, Jeka, and Bews all making way.

I believe we'll retain Rohan and Duncan, mainly to avoid losing too much experience at once.

With those players departing, we need to bring in some quality talent within the right age bracket, even if it's just depth.

Smith won't be enough by himself, which is why I'm really open to the idea of bringing in Nash too as a FA.
 
4. Tanner Bruhn- Yes definitely
6 - Toby Conway-if fit yes but id say no his body will menzel him
7 - Shaun Mannagh-it will take him til 31ish to get there but yes definitely-just hope its with us and not another club
9 - Max Holmes-yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt-yes when blitz retires it will help him
11 - Mitchell Edwards-yes but not at geelong
13 - Jhye Clark-100 % certain
14 - Connor O'Sullivan-yes once his body develops
16 - Sam De Koning-yes
17 - Lawson Humphries-yes
18 - Tyson Stengle-yes
19 - Phoenix Foster-gawnn
15 - George Stevens-head says no heart says yes
20 - James Willis-no
21 - Oliver Wiltshire-no
28 - Ollie Dempsey-yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch-delist
33 - Shannon Neale-this is the big one-we need it to be yes but im not sure
34 - Oisin Mullin-no
36 - Oliver Henry-100 % yes
37 - Joe Furphy-no
39 - Zach Guthrie-yes
40 - Ted Clohesy
43 - Emerson Jeka-no doesnt have the drive
45 - Brad Close-yes but not sure if he plays his whole career here
 
Kobe Gryant said:
Who do you think?

I've got Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy, Hardie, Murdoch, Foster, Willis, Parfitt, Jeka, and Bews all making way.

I believe we'll retain Rohan and Duncan, mainly to avoid losing too much experience at once.

With those players departing, we need to bring in some quality talent within the right age bracket, even if it's just depth.

Smith won't be enough by himself, which is why I'm really open to the idea of bringing in Nash too as a FA.
Click to expand...

This year? Hardie is certain since they wont play him, same with murdoch (struggling at vfl level) and jeka.
Stanley hawkins tuohy and bews all retire and parfitt will leave FA/dfa.
Duncan and rohan i agree probably 1 more year ditto danger.
Delist foster but id give willis 1 more year.

Would mean 6 senior spots and 3 rookie spots open.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
4. Tanner Bruhn- Yes definitely
6 - Toby Conway-if fit yes but id say no his body will menzel him
7 - Shaun Mannagh-it will take him til 31ish to get there but yes definitely-just hope its with us and not another club
9 - Max Holmes-yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt-yes when blitz retires it will help him
11 - Mitchell Edwards-yes but not at geelong
13 - Jhye Clark-100 % certain
14 - Connor O'Sullivan-yes once his body develops
16 - Sam De Koning-yes
17 - Lawson Humphries-yes
18 - Tyson Stengle-yes
19 - Phoenix Foster-gawnn
15 - George Stevens-head says no heart says yes
20 - James Willis-no
21 - Oliver Wiltshire-no
28 - Ollie Dempsey-yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch-delist
33 - Shannon Neale-this is the big one-we need it to be yes but im not sure
34 - Oisin Mullin-no
36 - Oliver Henry-100 % yes
37 - Joe Furphy-no
39 - Zach Guthrie-yes
40 - Ted Clohesy
43 - Emerson Jeka-no doesnt have the drive
45 - Brad Close-yes but not sure if he plays his whole career here
Click to expand...
How can you have Conway not making it and then Edwards not at Geelong?

My stance was based on Conway making it, and then Edwards leaving as we won't play 2 #1 rucks (similar to Darcy/Meek at Freo)

If Toby ends up a 'Menzel' then we'll move heaven and earth to keep and develop Edwards, and vice versa.
 
Assume you are asking who makes it to 100 games fullstop?

4 - Tanner Bruhn - yep
6 - Toby Conway - maybe
7 - Shaun Mannagh - yep
9 - Max Holmes - yep
10 - Mitch Knevitt - nope
11 - Mitchell Edwards - yep, maybe not for us
13 - Jhye Clark - yep
14 - Connor O'Sullivan - yep
16 - Sam De Koning - yep
17 - Lawson Humphries - yep
18 - Tyson Stengle - yep
19 - Phoenix Foster - nope
15 - George Stevens - nope
20 - James Willis - nope
21 - Oliver Wiltshire - nope
28 - Ollie Dempsey - yep
31 - Oscar Murdoch - nope
33 - Shannon Neale - yep
34 - Oisin Mullin - yep
36 - Oliver Henry - yep
37 - Joe Furphy - yep
39 - Zach Guthrie - yep
40 - Ted Clohesy - yep
43 - Emerson Jeka - nope
45 - Brad Close
 
4 - Tanner Bruhn - yes
6 - Toby Conway - no
7 - Shaun Mannagh - no
9 - Max Holmes - yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt - no
11 - Mitchell Edwards - no
13 - Jhye Clark - yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan - yes
16 - Sam De Koning - yes
17 - Lawson Humphries - yes
18 - Tyson Stengle - yes
19 - Phoenix Foster - no
15 - George Stevens - no
20 - James Willis - no
21 - Oliver Wiltshire - no
28 - Ollie Dempsey - yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch - no
33 - Shannon Neale - yes
34 - Oisin Mullin - yes
36 - Oliver Henry - yes
37 - Joe Furphy - no
39 - Zach Guthrie - yes
40 - Ted Clohesy - yes
43 - Emerson Jeka - no
45 - Brad Close - yes
 
4 - Tanner Bruhn - unquestionably yes
6 - Toby Conway - Yes, we will bulletproof his body, but 2025 will likely be another cautious one
7 - Shaun Mannagh - Seen enough in the past three weeks to say yes. Has listened to the coaching and become a selfless mid/fwd - hope he finds his mojo in front of goal and starts kicking a couple of snags every other week
9 - Max Holmes - 200 minimum
10 - Mitch Knevitt - Big doubts after Friday night, it's sadly a no for me
11 - Mitchell Edwards - I hope so, but still very early days. I'm going to say no judging on our luck with ruckmen, however he has talent.
13 - Jhye Clark - 200 games min.
14 - Connor O'Sullivan - Yes
16 - Sam De Koning - 200 games min.
17 - Lawson Humphries - 150 games min.
18 - Tyson Stengle - Easily
19 - Phoenix Foster - Won't play a game
15 - George Stevens - Don't think so, too slow but will play a few games - GHS vibes.
20 - James Willis - No, looking doubtful for a game. Too patchy amongst his occasional brilliance.
21 - Oliver Wiltshire - No, has talent but can't see it
28 - Ollie Dempsey - 200 games min
31 - Oscar Murdoch - Won't play a game
33 - Shannon Neale - I'm not quite sold if he will with us.. He is a bit of a confounding one. Started against Collingwood brilliantly then did very little. Omitted due to conditions against the dogs. He has talent, he dominates at the lower levels - but I'm not sure if he has the necessary attributes to be a star key forward. As a second or third tall? Yeah, probably. I suspect over the next couple of seasons he will play 15-20 a year. I'm saying yes - just.
34 - Oisin Mullin - Yes, he will get there
36 - Oliver Henry - Undoubtedly
37 - Joe Furphy - No
39 - Zach Guthrie - 200 min.
40 - Ted Clohesy - Yes, I think he will squeeze in 100. Atkins' successor vibes.
43 - Emerson Jeka - Don't think he will play one with us.
45 - Brad Close - 150 min.
 
Art Vandelay_ said:
The qualification is 100 games at Geelong. Those already past the mark or traded in and past 100 combined games excluded.

4 - Tanner Bruhn
6 - Toby Conway
7 - Shaun Mannagh
9 - Max Holmes
10 - Mitch Knevitt
11 - Mitchell Edwards
13 - Jhye Clark
14 - Connor O'Sullivan
16 - Sam De Koning
17 - Lawson Humphries
18 - Tyson Stengle
19 - Phoenix Foster
15 - George Stevens
20 - James Willis
21 - Oliver Wiltshire
28 - Ollie Dempsey
31 - Oscar Murdoch
33 - Shannon Neale
34 - Oisin Mullin
36 - Oliver Henry
37 - Joe Furphy
39 - Zach Guthrie
40 - Ted Clohesy
43 - Emerson Jeka
45 - Brad Close



4 - Tanner Bruhn Yes
6 - Toby Conway Yes
7 - Shaun Mannagh Yes
9 - Max Holmes Yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt No
11 - Mitchell Edwards No
13 - Jhye Clark Yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan Yes
16 - Sam De Koning Yes
17 - Lawson Humphries Yes
18 - Tyson Stengle Yes
19 - Phoenix Foster No
15 - George Stevens No
20 - James Willis No
21 - Oliver Wiltshire No
28 - Ollie Dempsey Yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch No
33 - Shannon Neale Yes
34 - Oisin Mullin No
36 - Oliver Henry Yes
37 - Joe Furphy No
39 - Zach Guthrie Yes
40 - Ted Clohesy No
43 - Emerson Jeka No
45 - Brad Close Yes
Click to expand...

Good thread idea

4 - Tanner Bruhn - yes
6 - Toby Conway - yes
7 - Shaun Mannagh - will get close but run out of years in his career
9 - Max Holmes - yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt - no but I'm pretty torn.
11 - Mitchell Edwards - yes
13 - Jhye Clark - yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan - yes
16 - Sam De Koning - yes
17 - Lawson Humphries - yes
18 - Tyson Stengle - yes
19 - Phoenix Foster - no
15 - George Stevens - no
20 - James Willis - no
21 - Oliver Wiltshire - no
28 - Ollie Dempsey - yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch - no
33 - Shannon Neale - yes
34 - Oisin Mullin - no, but a little torn because I want to see him play on ball in the VFL and see if that changes things for hi. Which I think it easily could.
36 - Oliver Henry - yes
37 - Joe Furphy - no
39 - Zach Guthrie - shocked he is on this list. Yes.
40 - Ted Clohesy - I'm calling it, yes
43 - Emerson Jeka - no
45 - Brad Close - yes

I have put Knevitt as a no but he has some skills so if we can't make him a player the failure is partly on the coaches.

Mullin a tentative no but I want to see him play out the year in the VFL and see what he becomes next year

Mannagh to get to 100 games needs almost a 5 year run playing every game to do this before 31 or 32. A few injuries puts this at 33 easily. I'm putting up a no, but I don't think the number of games matters for him. He's there.
 
Kobe Gryant said:
How can you have Conway not making it and then Edwards not at Geelong?

My stance was based on Conway making it, and then Edwards leaving as we won't play 2 #1 rucks (similar to Darcy/Meek at Freo)

If Toby ends up a 'Menzel' then we'll move heaven and earth to keep and develop Edwards, and vice versa.
Click to expand...

Conway will be a dawson simpson type fail due to injury i think.

edwards i think we will lose to WA in 3-4 yrs but he will play 100 games there.
 
Hinkley29 said:
4 - Tanner Bruhn - yes
6 - Toby Conway - no
7 - Shaun Mannagh - no
9 - Max Holmes - yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt - no
11 - Mitchell Edwards - no
13 - Jhye Clark - yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan - yes
16 - Sam De Koning - yes
17 - Lawson Humphries - yes
18 - Tyson Stengle - yes
19 - Phoenix Foster - no
15 - George Stevens - no
20 - James Willis - no
21 - Oliver Wiltshire - no
28 - Ollie Dempsey - yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch - no
33 - Shannon Neale - yes
34 - Oisin Mullin - yes
36 - Oliver Henry - yes
37 - Joe Furphy - no
39 - Zach Guthrie - yes
40 - Ted Clohesy - yes
43 - Emerson Jeka - no
45 - Brad Close - yes
Click to expand...

Why no on mannagh? He looks class to me.
 

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Pure_Ownage said:
Why no on mannagh? He looks class to me.
Click to expand...
Having also said no on Mannagh I would guess he's concerned just about the age thing. He'll be 27 rolling into finals, end of season maybe 10 games. Needs 90 games which he'd get in just under 5 full years taking him to age 31. A decent injury run makes that touch and go for him to do it before age 32. A normalish injury run and playing a position with his running requirements, and a position that's most easily filled, i would think it's pretty likely he's not getting there until he starts a year age 33. Just playing the odds really
 
Hinkley29 said:
A lot has to go right for a player to reach 100 games starting as late as he has.

100 games is 5 seasons of basically playing every game, he is about to turn 27.

The odds are against him doing it.
Click to expand...
CatToTheFuture said:
Having also said no on Mannagh I would guess he's concerned just about the age thing. He'll be 27 rolling into finals, end of season maybe 10 games. Needs 90 games which he'd get in just under 5 full years taking him to age 31. A decent injury run makes that touch and go for him to do it before age 32. A normalish injury run and playing a position with his running requirements, and a position that's most easily filled, i would think it's pretty likely he's not getting there until he starts a year age 33. Just playing the odds really
Click to expand...

Hinkley29 said:
A lot has to go right for a player to reach 100 games starting as late as he has.

100 games is 5 seasons of basically playing every game, he is about to turn 27.

The odds are against him doing it.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. And look weve made it harder by leaving him out 12 weeks.
But he still could do it.
He will need a good run with injury but menegola did it and played 100 off the reel.
Yes mannagh is 2 years older than sam but hes younger than pods who did it.
I think shaun is the type of player that if he looks after his body he will get there at 32-33.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Fair enough. And look weve made it harder by leaving him out 12 weeks.
But he still could do it.
He will need a good run with injury but menegola did it and played 100 off the reel.
Yes mannagh is 2 years older than sam but hes younger than pods who did it.
I think shaun is the type of player that if he looks after his body he will get there at 32-33.
Click to expand...
Yeah I think the thread title of "who makes it" then calling the threshold 100 games down help him for this list. I would say he's made it if he plays 75+
 
4 - Tanner Bruhn - Yes
6 - Toby Conway - Yes
7 - Shaun Mannagh - Yes
9 - Max Holmes - Yes
10 - Mitch Knevitt - No
11 - Mitchell Edwards - Yes
13 - Jhye Clark - Yes
14 - Connor O'Sullivan -Yes
16 - Sam De Koning -Yes
17 - Lawson Humphries -Yes
18 - Tyson Stengle -Yes
19 - Phoenix Foster -No
15 - George Stevens -Yes
20 - James Willis -Yes
21 - Oliver Wiltshire -Yes
28 - Ollie Dempsey -Yes
31 - Oscar Murdoch -No
33 - Shannon Neale -Yes
34 - Oisin Mullin -Yes
36 - Oliver Henry -No
37 - Joe Furphy -Yes
39 - Zach Guthrie -Yes
40 - Ted Clohesy -Yes
43 - Emerson Jeka -No
45 - Brad Close -Yes
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Yeah I think the thread title of "who makes it" then calling the threshold 100 games down help him for this list. I would say he's made it if he plays 75+
Click to expand...
The difference with Mannagh will be the quality of the games that he plays.

As a mature ager the standard that he plays at in games 1-25 will be infinitely higher than games 1-25 for a 19 year old rookie. Most young players are a drag on the team for at least their first 30 games. For example, I am very confident that Jhye Clark will be a good player for Geelong, but Mannagh’s output right now at AFL level is way higher, even though he has only played 5 games (vs Clark’s 16 games played).

It is why I have long been advocating for more mature aged recruits. They give you better bang for your buck - they don’t need years on the list “developing” before they play, when they do play they tend to hit the ground running, and they are often on low salaries (at least initially) for a player of their age.

They can be a great complement to a list, especially one like ours where most of the quality is at the top and bottom of the age ranges (and not much in the middle).
 
I'm interested who people think will get delisted/retire/traded at season's end.

Hawkins Tuhoy Stanley will all retire. Bews will be forced to retire as no one will pick him up.

Foster, Hardie, Murdoch will get delisted.

Parfitt will go if he can get a new home

James Willis , will get delisted but we will pick him back up as a rookie

Bailey Smith will come in, so we have 7 free spots in my view
 
foxdog50 said:
I'm interested who people think will get delisted/retire/traded at season's end.

Hawkins Tuhoy Stanley will all retire. Bews will be forced to retire as no one will pick him up.

Foster, Hardie, Murdoch will get delisted.

Parfitt will go if he can get a new home

James Willis , will get delisted but we will pick him back up as a rookie

Bailey Smith will come in, so we have 7 free spots in my view
Click to expand...
I know he can’t get delisted this year, but George Stevens will need to show a fair bit over the next 12 months to be safe this time next year.

For a bloke who has played most of the VFL games (ie. no real injury issues) he looks a long way from AFL level.
 

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Prediction Crystal Ball 2024 Edition. Who makes it?

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