Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[Johnny Cattery]

I dont think .. they feel its the way to go anymore ... as demonstrated by the constable talk. The market is magma hot and fluid ... and kids that are waiting their turn will in somecase get impatient..or get encouraged to get impatient.

So add 5 kids ..that will all struggle for games ..some that will get attention from other clubs ... etc... so you have to be careful about adding only what you want to use of or use soon. There will be exceptions of course.... but GWS has shown they have struggled as Vic teams bandy together and vulture them.

Its why Id not be surprised if they do trade Constable if its gets them a player who has features they rate now..ratehr than wait.. I just hope we get someone with these features who is closer to 20 than 30 ..

So how many players do we lose ..how many do we gain... and how many kids can we add that will get a serious look at chances within a year or two like Miers...

Higgins and Steven..is probably their way of countering the loss of Kelly.. but it hurts the age profile..

I totally agree that you need to think about what you get in - but I also feel that the effect on younger players of bringing in top-ups is often not factored into discussion.

Arguably, the strongest message sent by gap filling is not "the window is open, we just need a little extra polish" but of lack of confidence in younger players. Players who might have thought they would have a realistic chance to make the side after a couple of retirements suddenly find themselves pushed back by a mid career arrival (or three). ... who knows what effect that has on development? The very best make it in, of course, but what about the players who take time (Hamling is an example)?

Last year, Cook more or less conceded that the commercial imperative to stay in finals (a badly over rated measure of success, one that says little about the potential to win a flag), had cost the club the chance to reset and get that big draft haul like we had in 1999 and 2001 (helped by the year that 2001 became). i would love to think that Kelly leaving, and it is seeming like he is leaving when the club uses the past tense in a headline about his effect on the Cats, offers a chance for a genuine go at the draft: 3-4 picks in the top 30, a couple in the top 15. Gurrfurrit.

Meanwhile, over on the Freo board, a St Kilda poster (!) is adamant about having the inside word that Kelly is going to the Dockers.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Really we traditionally do have a good record..but then we really have not gone hard at the draft with premium picks for a while and asked them to wait for games ... Its been a long time since we have not recruited a player for an immediate PnP in an offseason. To be fair even back in the good old days.. we had years like 200 when we tried to balance the kids with a senior player

That's a good point; it was basically a different era when we last went the Big Draft, kids were expected to bide their time, plug-n-play types harder to find too (or maybe kids back then just didn't agitate for games loudly enough!).

But just how long a hypothetical draft class of 2019 would have to wait for their opportunities is very much open to interpretation; at least until this finals series concludes - if we bomb out then maybe it's time to rethink the whole approach - if we salute, then you're probably %100 right; our imaginary group of 5-under-#36 might find it harder to break into a Premiership Team.

We're on a bit of a knife's edge in that regard; personally I'll be doin' some agitating of my own if we exit in straight sets and then pay overs for Higgins and Steven. In a straight sets scenario, our hypothetical 5-under-#36 could suddenly be racking up the games with a coach on notice and a playing list with a pretty lamentable collective finals record -apart from a core handful of players there would be plenty of room for fresh blood.
In that doomsday scenario of course you'd also have to question if Chris Scott would be the man for redeveloping a youth-focused list, but that is a whole other story.

 

[Turbocat]

That's a good point; it was basically a different era when we last went the Big Draft, kids were expected to bide their time, plug-n-play types harder to find too (or maybe kids back then just didn't agitate for games loudly enough!).

But just how long a hypothetical draft class of 2019 would have to wait for their opportunities is very much open to interpretation; at least until this finals series concludes - if we bomb out then maybe it's time to rethink the whole approach - if we salute, then you're probably %100 right; our imaginary group of 5-under-#36 might find it harder to break into a Premiership Team.

We're on a bit of a knife's edge in that regard; personally I'll be doin' some agitating of my own if we exit in straight sets and then pay overs for Higgins and Steven. In a straight sets scenario, our hypothetical 5-under-#36 could suddenly be racking up the games with a coach on notice and a playing list with a pretty lamentable collective finals record -apart from a core handful of players there would be plenty of room for fresh blood.
In that doomsday scenario of course you'd also have to question if Chris Scott would be the man for redeveloping a youth-focused list, but that is a whole other story.

Im a geelong person so i tend to think we could do it as well .if not better than most ... but if we looked at some other clubs like Port ..they have probably brought 3 kids in and played them this year.. GC is not a realistic comparision. In fact the addition of Clark and Miers gives us a hint of what might happen if the kids were good enough. Perfect world we bring in enough in system players to support the probably hole created by kelly etc.. but our kids are that good they get selected and hold their spots . Back in the day Arnott got pushed out by kids but it was policy that kept him out . These days ..I think any kid would have to hold his form... and in this era.. being able to bring in mature players, players want to come has an element of destination club status about it.. so when you recruit players.. its almost a given they will get a strong go at it year 1 and 2. Dahl is an example .. in a way we should have players with more upside than him playing but I doubt that happens for a while.

You are right about SSets.. this weeks games important for so many reasons.. its been a while since we basically had the chance to hold serve and be in control of the finals ..with a strong w1 performance. Win ..and I think we may play Bris at the G in a PF... How irronical.. it would almost be the reverse of 2004.

So I we manage to add 2 R1 kids ..and 2 mature mids..and maybe a tall on top of a strong finals performance .. the clubs would be happy to preach the word of stoking the fire rather than starting a new one. This years draft ..is one for the best RM's imo.. last year bigfooty guys could have picked the top 10. This year ..there will be plenty of success from overlooked players... but who that will be.. anyones guess.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Im a geelong person so i tend to think we could do it as well .if not better than most ... but if we looked at some other clubs like Port ..they have probably brought 3 kids in and played them this year.. GC is not a realistic comparision. In fact the addition of Clark and Miers gives us a hint of what might happen if the kids were good enough. Perfect world we bring in enough in system players to support the probably hole created by kelly etc.. but our kids are that good they get selected and hold their spots . Back in the day Arnott got pushed out by kids but it was policy that kept him out . These days ..I think any kid would have to hold his form... and in this era.. being able to bring in mature players, players want to come has an element of destination club status about it.. so when you recruit players.. its almost a given they will get a strong go at it year 1 and 2. Dahl is an example .. in a way we should have players with more upside than him playing but I doubt that happens for a while.

You are right about SSets.. this weeks games important for so many reasons.. its been a while since we basically had the chance to hold serve and be in control of the finals ..with a strong w1 performance. Win ..and I think we may play Bris at the G in a PF... How irronical.. it would almost be the reverse of 2004.

So I we manage to add 2 R1 kids ..and 2 mature mids..and maybe a tall on top of a strong finals performance .. the clubs would be happy to preach the word of stoking the fire rather than starting a new one. This years draft ..is one for the best RM's imo.. last year bigfooty guys could have picked the top 10. This year ..there will be plenty of success from overlooked players... but who that will be.. anyones guess.

It's not the worst result; I could live with that - and again, I do like Higgins and Steven at their best, Steven in particular is fun to watch when on song.

 

[Turbocat]

It's not the worst result; I could live with that - and again, I do like Higgins and Steven at their best, Steven in particular is fun to watch when on song.

Maybe.. butchers the ball a bit.. its a wait and see.. Id not be too upset if the contracted players just lived up to what they signed to do

 

[Seeds]

Rival clubs have been told the Cats are committed to gaining at least three top 30 selections in November’s National Draft...

To me this means to my mind they will take the two late picks from West Coast and trade then for Steven and Higgins.. Overall a deflating possibility to me.

5 in the top 36 would be a strong attack at the draft ..and although its perceived as a shallow draft ..it would be a big chance to add a lot of early selection talent... and I just cant see us doing it. To me I feel that means they can get an extra R1 to use... and then have 3 picks from 18 to 36 to trade for players.

So 18 for Higgins , 21 for Steven and 36 for player X who we dont know yet.

Trading top 20 picks for players over 30 is insane.

 

[dazbroncos]

I dont think .. they feel its the way to go anymore ... as demonstrated by the constable talk. The market is magma hot and fluid ... and kids that are waiting their turn will in somecase get impatient..or get encouraged to get impatient.

So add 5 kids ..that will all struggle for games ..some that will get attention from other clubs ... etc... so you have to be careful about adding only what you want to use of or use soon. There will be exceptions of course.... but GWS has shown they have struggled as Vic teams bandy together and vulture them.

Its why Id not be surprised if they do trade Constable if its gets them a player who has features they rate now..ratehr than wait.. I just hope we get someone with these features who is closer to 20 than 30 ..

So how many players do we lose ..how many do we gain... and how many kids can we add that will get a serious look at chances within a year or two like Miers...

Higgins and Steven..is probably their way of countering the loss of Kelly.. but it hurts the age profile..

But to take 5 picks.. why do they all have to be 2019 picks.
Surely if TK is 3 pick deal, one high Rd 1, a mid Rd 1 and other, surely the high Rd 1 and could be this year and the other 2020, or a mix there of.

I guess my point is the draft capital is worth taking - but I get the point of becoming too much GWS like... but id still take that spread over 2 years than Higgins, Steven et al being invovled in any of those pick values.

GO Catters

 

[Kenjo]

Not sure about Cockatoo, but agree with the others

Not sure about Guthrie but agree on the others

 

[Turbocat]

Trading top 20 picks for players over 30 is insane.

If as reporterd that we will accept 3 picks in the top 30..not 2 in the top 18 ...then that sounds to me that we will look to trade them. Im not advocating that we do it... but I suspect the chance of 5 picks in the draft in the top30 is less likely than us trading some picks for pnp players.

My prefernce would be if we bring in guys closer to 20 than 30 but I have not heard us linked to players like that.

 

[Turbocat]

But to take 5 picks.. why do they all have to be 2019 picks.
Surely if TK is 3 pick deal, one high Rd 1, a mid Rd 1 and other, surely the high Rd 1 and could be this year and the other 2020, or a mix there of.

I guess my point is the draft capital is worth taking - but I get the point of becoming too much GWS like... but id still take that spread over 2 years than Higgins, Steven et al being invovled in any of those pick values.

GO Catters

Its possible for it to be that , id have thought media would report it differently 3 in top 18 etc or two early R1's etc... if that was the case. Its all speculation built on media im not putting anything in concrete ..its not like the media are all always 100% correct.

But 5 kids in the top 30 ... sounds a lot different than what we have done in years. We have been linked to players and we know that our club has a history of just spending what ever to get what they want. If they see 20-30 something not much different to 40-50 something in this draft.. and some player that could be best 22 that could be brought in for a 20-30.. do they just get it done? Id rather kids but we have used R1's to get Henderson, 2e , Ablett and 21 for Stanley ..and tried to find value with later picks. Would they do that again?

Id say in your idea of Futures... maybe a Steven trade for eg. comes with a future for the pick we give them?

 

[CatFan79]

Cocky, Parfitt, Narkle, Constable and Guthrie are all ready to step it up in the midfield for 2020.

Guthrie's been stepping down since a flash of 'something' 3 years ago...

So probably not.

 

[Down at K Park]

Why the hell would we trade round 1 picks for either stevens or higgins, just to get maybe 2 yrs out of them? It’s insanity, and the journos who keep peddling it are talking absolute
horseshit.

From all reports higgins is using the talk of coming to us to get a contract extension with norf, and is getting close to getting it. Hope so, cause i dont want him here. Not at his age.

 

[year of the cat]

Of course you'd take a single digit pick but would you take pick 7 or picks 14 and 22?

Is there a Joel Selwood at 7 this year? If not there might might be a Patrick Cripps and Brandon Parfitt

I'd still take 7 I think. You could grab a really good type like Young or D.Stephens or Flanders or maybe even Kemp whereas 14 and 22 might net you Jackson and Mitch O'Neill or something like that. Now I think at 14 you'll still pick up a good player but I reckon it's very speculative by 22 (which would be 25 after bids etc).

 

[strauchnyy]

'3 picks under 30' sounds all well and good, until you realize that that's essentially what he was worth last year (apparently). 22, 25 future first / future second (whoever you believe).

14 and 22 are fine, but their future first needs to be in there too, with our second or third going back. Just because a journalist says it, doesn't mean that we'll adhere to it. Steven I could see us giving up 22 for (with the bulk of his salary paid) and something back. Higgins for 14 or 18, is a deadset joke. If our club is that stupid, then we don't deserve the draftees that those picks produce anyway.

Higgins and or Steven for anything before 50 is a dead set joke.

How much did Mitchell, Lewis, hodge, Chappy cost?

Picks in the 70s.

Yes they’re contracted but still worth almost zero. It’s like us trading Harry Taylor to GC for a pick in the teens.

Won’t happen. Or fans will burn down gmhba

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Some people criticised Geelong last year for not letting Tim go, but I think they've been vindicated for that decision this year. With an AA to his name now, Tim's value is even higher and he's really worth two 1st round picks now IMO. That compounds if we in the flag too. Well played cats.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Some people criticised Geelong last year for not letting Tim go, but I think they've been vindicated for that decision this year. With an AA to his name now, Tim's value is even higher and he's really worth two 1st round picks now IMO. That compounds if we in the flag too. Well played cats.

I was one of those people. I'm glad the club held onto him, it was absolutely the right decision. Imagine if he wins the Norm Smith on GF day.

 

[Turbocat]

I was one of those people. I'm glad the club held onto him, it was absolutely the right decision. Imagine if he wins the Norm Smith on GF day.

lets just see what a trade brings ...

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I hope you have you hands on the picks... lets see what happens .

Im confident we wont do that.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Trading top 20 picks for players over 30 is insane.

Wont happen.

 

[Strange Cat]

Where do you see Cockatoo's best position? I see him as one or two centre bounce midfielder (per Q) with some stints on the wing and starting from the square.

I’ll just be happy his body can hold up never mind the position he plays

FWIW he’s a forward to me

 

[JohnZ]

I’ll just be happy his body can hold up

100%. Bit of Menzel there unfortunately

 

[Strange Cat]

I very much doubt it will happen, but if we were able to secure 3 selections in the top 30 to go with 18 & 36 then I'd be passing up on Higgins and Steven (despite liking both as footballers) and taking all 5 picks to the draft instead. I understand that it will be far from a 2001 superdraft, but it will be the first time in many a year that we'd be giving Wells and his team a really good crack at a draft in years, and I would back him in to nab us at least 2x 200+ gamers (as opposed to Higgins or Steven, who we'd be lucky to get 100 games from respectively) with that kind of currency.

So much this

I would rather back Narkle and Chook to fill in the void left by Kelly, I can’t see why the club would look at Steven or Higgins who will barely play a full year imo

 

[Baudolino]

Higgins and or Steven for anything before 50 is a dead set joke.

How much did Mitchell, Lewis, hodge, Chappy cost?

Picks in the 70s.

Yes they’re contracted but still worth almost zero. It’s like us trading Harry Taylor to GC for a pick in the teens.

Won’t happen. Or fans will burn down gmhba

Steven will only be turning 30 next year so not quite equivalent to Hodge (turned 34 the year he moved to Brisbane), Mitchell (turned 35 the year he moved to West Coast) and Chapman (turned 33 the year he moved to Essendon).

I agree that talk of first-rounders is absurd but by the same token I think the idea that he'll be a fourth round pick or whatever is fanciful. I'm thinking more along the lines of late 2nd/early 3rd, ie somewhere in the 35-50 range. Which is still low-cost.

 

[Strange Cat]

Nah Higgins and Steven are not worth top40 picks at all.

I’ll be ropable if not only we get them but we give up decent picks for them

Sadly I can see the club doing this

 

[year of the cat]

So much this

I would rather back Narkle and Chook to fill in the void left by Kelly, I can’t see why the club would look at Steven or Higgins who will barely play a full year imo

I'd be comfortable taking one or the other but only if we weren't giving up any more than our second rounder.