Delisting 2008

[Vader]

Nothing wrong with your logic or reasoning but 9 delistees in one year after 10 changes in 2007 just seems too many.

Maybe 6 to 7 would be more like it IMO - but I'm not sure of who would make that number up apart from Jericho, Doughty and Massie.

Hentschel & Gill are both big IFs - I certainly hope that they both go on to have successful careers. If they both perform then there is no need for either of them to go.

What further complicates it though is that we have all these known delistees in the next 2 years, without making any allowance for failures amongst those drafted in 2006 and 2007.

Gary Ayres really did bugger up the list management side of things!!

Absolutely

 

[Campbell's Chunky]

It’s the 6th of January FFS anything can happen.

Anything but Doughty being a crow in 09.

 

[Dogga79]

Anything but Doughty being a crow in 09.

Seriously, I know he is vanilla, but is he that bad. I agree he will probably get the chop at the end of this season, but I cant help but get the feeling he gets a bad rap around here.

 

[cammo84]

Definite:
Doughty - Average player his whole career. Holding youngsters back if he plays.
Biglands - Getting old and coming off a bad injury, also holding back youngsters

Probable, depending on season 08:
Massie
Edwards
Basset
Burton

I hope Jericho makes the most of his last chance at AFL level.

I would be dissapointed to see Gill delisted. Even if he's not in our best 22 he's still a handy back-up.

Sad days if Hentschel is delisted/retired. He was just hitting his best form and on his way to elite level. It would be a huge, sad waste to see that knee injury end it all.

 

[Ebert80]

I'd be surprised if Edwards get delisted at the end of the year. I think hes got 2 more years in him. I think the only reason why he would be delisted would be to stagger the departures of him and Goodwin and McLeod.

 

[KingsCrow]

I Think Edwards will go at the end of the year on his own doing.

 

[MickyCrow]

Would hate to see Edwards go at the end of 08, especially if its not of his own doing.

Would rather see him and Goodwin retire at the end of 09 and McLeod in 10 or 11 (he isnt slowing down so could play to 35 IMHO)

 

[Ticktak]

Lumbering ruckman is pretty much exactly what he IS.

2008 will be long enough , beyond that his services simply won't be required.

Agree to disagree. We'll wait and see.
By lumbering I mean slow and non agile. Biglands was none of these before he did his knee!

 

[-CG-]

Agree to disagree. We'll wait and see.
By lumbering I mean slow and non agile. Biglands was none of these before he did his knee!

Actually a I believe he was once our fastest player over a 20m sprint.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Lumbering ruckman is pretty much exactly what he IS.

Consider the statistics for the three ruckmen named, from 2004-2007 (relatively recent form, not dependent upon glory years) :

Vader did you include the stats for the year 2007? If so that is an unfair comparison considering that Biglands was absent for that entire year. If so, how about doing it again without the year 2007 included in there.

 

[Ticktak]

Actually a I believe he was once our fastest player over a 20m sprint.

And I know he was one of the fastest at the Eagles.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Actually a I believe he was once our fastest player over a 20m sprint.

Spot on and he still is. He is actually pretty agile for the size that he is. I was watching a little bit of a game in 2005 and the taps he was doing to our midfield were brilliant. He is a big strong solid lad and I think that is where people get the impression that he is 'slow and lumbering' which is far from the truth.

 

[Vader]

Vader did you include the stats for the year 2007? If so that is an unfair comparison considering that Biglands was absent for that entire year. If so, how about doing it again without the year 2007 included in there.

I did include the figures for 2007. I included their averages per game in brackets, to take into account that the players in question did not all play the same number of games. I figure 4 years worth of averages is enough to get a reasonably accurate picture of the value of each player.

For what it is worth, I'd put the comparison into DreamTeam parlance. Biglands is a 50 point player, capable of 70-80 on a good day. Everitt & Lade are 80-90 point players, capable of 120-130 on a good day.

 

[NikkiNoo]

That is an unfair comparision really in terms of the stats. You are essentially wiping out Biglands for a whole year in comparision to Lade and Everitt. They have 22+ games to increase their averages where as Biglands is sitting on the sidelines. I suggest for a better comparision I would take out the 2007 year information.

I don't like Dream Team comparisions as players like Rutten and Bassett don't score that highly and yet are invaluable to our team. In fact other Dream Team players that score quite highly I would not like in our backlines instead of those two.

The problem with comparing stats or Dream Team scores of different players is that it does not take into account their role within a team. The way Port structure their team around Lade is different to how we structure our team around our ruckman. Hence Lade has a greater chance of taking more marks than ours will. So as a pure way of comparing players, it just doesn't work.

A prime example is whenever there are threads in relation to the best full back. Most neutral supporters think that Rutten gets help all the time from our other backline players compared to Glass and Scarlett, so they put him third on the list. Most of their opinions are based on how it is perceived that Adelaide play and not from actually watching our games on a regular basis.

Unless you watch as many games as you can and try to understand how different players have to set up within their teams game style, then I think you can compare different players to a small extent, imo.

 

[Vader]

That is an unfair comparision really in terms of the stats. You are essentially wiping out Biglands for a whole year in comparision to Lade and Everitt. They have 22+ games to increase their averages where as Biglands is sitting on the sidelines. I suggest for a better comparision I would take out the 2007 year information.

Given that all three players are the "wrong" side of 30, I doubt that they will have made significant increases to their averages (though I can do a season by season assessment if requested). It's not like we're talking the difference in development between an 18yo and a 22yo.

I don't like Dream Team comparisions as players like Rutten and Bassett don't score that highly and yet are invaluable to our team. In fact other Dream Team players that score quite highly I would not like in our backlines instead of those two.

The problem with comparing stats or Dream Team scores of different players is that it does not take into account their role within a team. The way Port structure their team around Lade is different to how we structure our team around our ruckman. Hence Lade has a greater chance of taking more marks than ours will. So as a pure way of comparing players, it just doesn't work.

A prime example is whenever there are threads in relation to the best full back. Most neutral supporters think that Rutten gets help all the time from our other backline players compared to Glass and Scarlett, so they put him third on the list. Most of their opinions are based on how it is perceived that Adelaide play and not from actually watching our games on a regular basis.

Unless you watch as many games as you can and try to understand how different players have to set up within their teams game style, then I think you can compare different players to a small extent, imo.

That's not unreasonable.

My point was simply that the other two ruckmen get a LOT more of the ball than Biglands. That's why they're both AA ruckmen & he's an normal AFL standard player.

 

[Farmy]

Given that all three players are the "wrong" side of 30, I doubt that they will have made significant increases to their averages (though I can do a season by season assessment if requested). It's not like we're talking the difference in development between an 18yo and a 22yo.

Why wouldn't there be, thats 3 years, and of one of those years Biglands didn't play at all, so he didn't add to his tally, so his average would be lower.

Its an unfair comparison, I hope you don't work for one of those statistics companies.

 

[relapse]

Gold Tix Doughty

as for the rest depends on the year that they have, Shirley might be in trouble if we get a younger tagger emerge.

Going to be wierd not to have dyertribe around with his Robert Shirley love fest this season.

 

[crowsarethebest]

Seriously, I know he is vanilla, but is he that bad. I agree he will probably get the chop at the end of this season, but I cant help but get the feeling he gets a bad rap around here.

He can get the ball quite a bit but he's as bad as a ball user as Rowen Jones who just retired from the Eagles. Whenever he gets the ball I think turnover.

 

[Vader]

Having now copped two baggings over the fact that Biglands didn't play in 2007, here are the stats on a year by year basis (stats listed are in order 2004-2007 with averages in brackets):

Biglands
games: 12 24 23 0
kicks: 70 (5.8) 116 (4.8) 120 (5.2) 0 (0)
handballs: 25 (2.1) 82 (3.4) 73 (3.2) 0 (0)
marks: 32 (2.7) 62 (2.6) 64 (2.8) 0 (0)
hitouts: 170 (14.2) 364 (15.2) 331 (14.4) 0 (0)
goals: 8 (0.7) 7 (0.3) 20 (0.9) 0 (0)

Lade
games: 24 24 22 25
kicks: 156 (6.5) 160 (6.7) 253 (11.5) 207 (8.3)
handballs: 120 (5) 98 (4.1) 102 (4.6) 102 (4.1)
marks: 110 (4.6) 112 (4.7) 187 (8.5) 131 (5.2)
hitouts: 382 (15.9) 306 (12.75) 436 (19.8) 517 (20.7)
goals: 31 (1.3) 24 (1.0) 18 (0.8) 15 (0.6)

Everitt
games: 22 22 14 23
kicks: 203 (9.2) 261 (11.8) 114 (8.1) 178 (7.7)
handballs: 90 (4.1) 121 (5.5) 54 (3.8) 78 (3.4)
marks: 99 (4.5) 123 (5.6) 58 (4.1) 93 (4.0)
hitouts: 628 (28.5) 556 (25.3) 309 (22.1) 405 (17.6)
goals: 28 (1.3) 17 (0.8) 5 (0.4) 15 (0.7)

Lade had a standout year in 2006, but even without those statistics he was still significantly better than Biglands across the board in almost any stat you care to choose (notable exception 2005 hitouts). Lade also seems to be a declining force as a goal scorer.

Everitt's figures reveal a career in terminal decline - but even the figures from his worst year are better than Biglands' best. Everitt's hitout figures are monstrous.

About the only other real factor I can think of is time spent on the ground - and without access to Champion Data statistics I can't provide that. Biglands has had to share ruck duties with Hudson & Clarke, which may mean that he had less game time than the other two. Then again, if he were a better ruckman he'd be spending more time on the ground, just as the other two do.

Apologies for the lack of formatting. Would appreciate it if someone could give me tips on how to do tables in BF posts. Probably best done by PM so as not to clutter up this thread.

 

[CarnCrows]

Probables:
- Doughty
- Edwards

On edge:
- Bassett - depends on his body
- Jericho - his 3rd make or break year.
- Campbell - Make or break.
- Massie - may just be unlucky?
- Shirley - may also be unlucky?

I think Biglands will be safe till 2010. Will be a handy backup, if the young rucks get injured. We would likely recruit another young ruck for 09 who will not be ready till 2010 season.

 

[AndrewJo]

The end of this year should be the hardiest to delist in years.

I know it's not the nicest thing to contemplate; young men losing their careers, but it's now part of the game.

So I would love to hear your opions.

Without a long term injury and no one having a terrible year, this is how I think it may pan out.

1 rookie to be promoted and 5 delistings so we have 4 picks in a strong draft.

Delisted would be: Shirely, Massie, Jericho, Doughty & Campbell.

While you're doing this maybe you can consider who will go in 2009 and 2010 and 2011..... Pointless exercise! See how they go in the 2008 season before giving names to delist. Injuries, form etc will have a big bearing on the list. Who knows who will "stray from the team rules" and simply won't be wanted by the club! How will the juniors develop...or not?? By the way who is Shirely...can't find that name on our list.

 

[Ticktak]

While you're doing this maybe you can consider who will go in 2009 and 2010 and 2011..... Pointless exercise! See how they go in the 2008 season before giving names to delist. Injuries, form etc will have a big bearing on the list. Who knows who will "stray from the team rules" and simply won't be wanted by the club! How will the juniors develop...or not?? By the way who is Shirely...can't find that name on our list.

Thanks for your input

 

[IddyBiddy]

While you're doing this maybe you can consider who will go in 2009 and 2010 and 2011..... Pointless exercise! See how they go in the 2008 season before giving names to delist. Injuries, form etc will have a big bearing on the list. Who knows who will "stray from the team rules" and simply won't be wanted by the club! How will the juniors develop...or not?? By the way who isShirely...can't find that name on our list.

Yes, but a yearly tradition none the less. If you go back over previous years predictions it makes for some interesting, funny and for the most part very inaccurate reading.

 

[Vader]

Yes, but a yearly tradition none the less. If you go back over previous years predictions it makes for some interesting, funny and for the most part very inaccurate reading.

Just think how many years we've been predicting (hoping) that Jericho would be delisted.

 

[cocka]

Delisted:
Burton
Campbell

Retire:
Bassett

Trade:
McGregor