Current Disappearance of 3yo William Tyrrell Pt 2 * FM guilty of assault & intimidation

[Kurve]

Continued from PART 1

Criminal charges the former foster parents currently face as at 15 April 2022 include:

• Apprehended Violence Orders on both (AVOs)
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster mother *Not Guilty
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster father *Not Guilty
• 2 x charges of assault against a child on former foster mother *Guilty
• 1 x charge of assault against a child on former foster father *Not Guilty
• Stalking &/or Intimidation on both *Guilty
• Dummy bidding real estate fraud *Guilty

TIMELINE

Where's William Tyrrell? - The Ch 10 podcast (under Coroner's subpoena)

Operation Arkstone

 

[BFew]

if I recall correctly we did detailed analysis of the perspective of house as it sits on the block. My recollection suggests consensus was it was slightly north easterly aspect at rear ?? I'm not convinced the north line in your house diagram is correct

It was more than consensus. We proved it. Whatever aspect direction we agreed on.

 

[31550]

It was more than consensus. We proved it. Whatever aspect direction we agreed on.

It's not a matter of consensus. It's a matter of fact. Quick look on Google Maps confirms the orientation of the house and verandah.

 

[BFew]

It's not a matter of consensus. It's a matter of fact. Quick look on Google Maps confirms the orientation of the house and verandah.

Even more factual than a trial admission!

 

[truecrimepath]

When weather is scattered clouds or even overcast it's not certain you have no shadows. What is certain is that the light source (the sun) is diffused. Shadows if they exist are less well defined and softer in a sense. Further diffusion occurs when the light source has to penetrate a polycarbonate roof as so here

I agree with Lady O. The place at which you have most reflective sun would be off the brick wall which is a north easterly facing wall. That will persist until the sun moves past horizontal to then hit the westerly aspects of the house. I know this from hard experience of FGM walk through where we were trying to determine tine of day. That sun patch itself Ina sense confirms that light source though diffused was sufficient to create reflective sun on wall..ie scattered clouds perhaps

The sun patch (which isn't direct but reflective) is exactly where id expect it to be in mid morning on 12th.

if I recall correctly we did detailed analysis of the perspective of house as it sits on the block. My recollection suggests consensus was it was slightly north easterly aspect?? I'm not convinced the north line in your house diagram is correct. Further, I have no idea how you transposed the sun direction and placement of WT and photographer where they are. Was that guess work? You do realise I hope that if you have slight errors in transposition it affects the whole math outcomes and therefore conclusions become flawed especially where you are trying to ascertain a linear shadow direction on a 3" cylindrical object (water bottle) lying on the floor itself facing slightly south west in direction

This is not trolling. I just think you are wrong on multiple facts.

I did experiments with diffused light like this one on an overcast day. The pink water bottle shadow is not possible for that time of day. The shadow is reduced but the direction is faithful. It's in the wrong direction. The elevation sun is calculated at 38 degrees but in the wrong direction.

You say I made a mistake transposing. I have rechecked many times, the error is too small to make a difference. I don't think I did. Show me your direction on the verandah and how you arrived at it. The mathematics is provided by Suncalc. I have shown my workings, but the standard of others seems to be opinion based and not based on science.

Lastly when you like this inaccurate numpty comment;

'The Michelle White photo was taken from the same direction of the sun indicated on your earlier post. Can you see that the sunlight would have been hitting the back wall of the verandah?'

It is hard to perceive you anything other than a troll. You even deny the shadow on the flower pot and refuse to acknowledge that the only way it could get there in the photo of Michelle White, is if it is moved. You then acknowledge the whole pot disappears from any further images. Did you ever think why the pot disappeared? Just maybe it was an inconvenient truth hiding in plain sight.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

It was more than consensus. We proved it. Whatever aspect direction we agreed on.

It's not a matter of consensus. It's a matter of fact. Quick look on Google Maps confirms the orientation of the house and verandah.

Yes and I was pushing that a picture of a bird on a kitchen wall was instead a clock..so I was proved wrong, yet thankfully treated with kid gloves. It was afternoon.

 

[BFew]

It would be absolutely tragic, if someone's main theory they've had for years on the William Tyrrell case, was erroneously based on getting the orientation of the crime scene home, all wrong.

 

[31550]

With due respect. I know you're taking the piss. I will give you a serious answer.

Here is the sun at 1.38 that day. You are closer than you think for this photo. Certainly closer than 9.30am

View attachment 2137757


I am not the one claiming the photo is taken at the 9.30 as if this is definitive. That's the problem I have with the poster. I find the photos highly complex in determining time. We know they were all taken about the same time. To determine the exact time I don't think is possible.

The problem with the photo is the light on the back wall and the shadow of the pink water bottle. There is also a shadow from the verandah post that is missing. Looking at the shadow from both the flower planter pot on the right and the pink water bottle you get a direction close to your time and date.

In reality at 9.30am on the 12th September it was overcast. There is no secondary light source in the northerly direction (reflection). There should be no shadows at all, there should not be bright light on the wall. This is causing reflections on the verandah floor. The problem is there is definite shadows and reflections. I came to the conclusion it was not taken that morning at all. It may have been photoshopped with a filter to give this appearance. Then ask yourself why would you photoshop the image? It does not make sense.

Aside from all the other issues, you have centred your diagram at the 'vortex' of the verandah (the innermost corner), which would be shaded from light in most situations by the walls of the house and also the roofing materials. You need to centre your diagram around the middle of the verandah (the void in-between the walls of the house), where William was photographed, or even closer to the edge of the verandah, to see where shadows may or may not have been cast.

 

[31550]

I would be absolutely tragic, if someone's main theory they've had for years on the William Tyrrell case, was erroneously based on getting the orientation of the crime scene home, all wrong.

Well, it's already tragic because police investigators operated on several inherently false assumptions from Day One. Not sure if orientation of the house was one of them, but there are several blatantly more glaring errors or omissions.

 

[truecrimepath]

Aside from all the other issues, you have centred your diagram at the 'vortex' of the verandah (the innermost corner), which would be shaded from light in most situations by the walls of the house and also the roofing materials. You need to centre your diagram around the middle of the verandah (the void in-between the walls of the house), where William was photographed, or even closer to the edge of the verandah, to see where shadows may or may not have been cast.

Stop your nonsense it's where the verandah is. Its you that is claiming 9.30 am, certainly not me.

 

[31550]

Stop your nonsense it's where the verandah is. Its you that is claiming 9.30 am, certainly not me.

You are talking about shadows in a photo of an area roughly 3m by 3m. Your reference point is off by about 3 metres. Makes a world of difference to where the shadows will fall.
I'm not claiming anything, other than your data is erroneous.

 

[truecrimepath]

It was more than consensus. We proved it. Whatever aspect direction we agreed on.

The program suncalc is based on astronomical true north. I doubt it is wrong.

 

[truecrimepath]

You are talking about shadows in a photo of an area roughly 3m by 3m. Your reference point is off by about 3 metres. Makes a world of difference to where the shadows will fall.
I'm not claiming anything, other than your data is erroneous.

LOL.

You are no longer claiming the photo was taken at 9.30am. WOW, how quickly you have folded in the face of evidence. This comment proves you are a numpty. 3m on a map is not going to change the direction in any perceivable way.

 

[31550]

LOL.

You are no longer claiming the photo was taken at 9.30am. WOW, how quickly you have folded in the face of evidence. This comment proves you are a numpty. 3m on a map is not going to change the direction in any perceivable way.

I never claimed anything about the photo. I commented that IMO the shadows appeared consistent with it being taken around 9:30am. Not the same thing.
3metres changes everything. If you walk 3 metres away from a tree in the sun, does it cast a different shadow on you?
The shadows on the verandah are different depending on where you stand. William was in the centre of the verandah, not the innermost corner or vortex, therefore he is not shaded as much by the wall of the house.
And being called a numpty by you is actually a compliment, not an insult, so fire away!

 

[BFew]

Workings
View attachment 2132600

Your North direction in the above is 100% correct.

 

[truecrimepath]

Your North direction in the above is 100% correct.

View attachment 2137940

Thankyou

 

[Lady O]

Given that you are refusing to acknowledge the shadow of the verandah post on the flower planter box and the fact it has been moved, I am not sure I should bother. The fact there is no light on the facing walls in your photo puts the time at about 3.15 pm on the 13th September, 2014. My previous post was on the 1st August. The sun direction changes enormously by date.

Why did you make this up? It's not even the same direction. LOL.

I don't think you have any idea at all.

 

[truecrimepath]

I never claimed anything about the photo. I commented that IMO the shadows appeared consistent with it being taken around 9:30am. Not the same thing.
3metres changes everything. If you walk 3 metres away from a tree in the sun, does it cast a different shadow on you?
The shadows on the verandah are different depending on where you stand. William was in the centre of the verandah, not the innermost corner or vortex, therefore he is not shaded as much by the wall of the house.
And being called a numpty by you is actually a compliment, not an insult, so fire away!

The direction does not change 3m. I should not have called you a Numpty, I apologise. I just don't suffer fools lightly and it is a character flaw.

 

[truecrimepath]

I don't think you have any idea at all.

The feelings mutual. At least I post evidence, you seem to make it up as you go.

 

[stormbird]

"Prime suspect[*] in the William Tyrrell probe taunts top cop over the failed manhunt to find the missing boy's killer after epic investigation", Daily Mail Australia, 10 Oct 2024

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...Tyrrell-gary-jubelin-paul-savage-kendall.html

*But near the end of the article: "Police have since cleared [Paul Savage] of any suspicion or wrongdoing."

 

[Lady O]

The feelings mutual. At least I post evidence, you seem to make it up as you go.

I doubt whatever I posted would make any difference to you believing you are correct. However, here is the orientation of the house from six maps, north in the direction you indicated.



I checked your SunCalc which is correct. Then I superimposed this on the above photo of the house (above), with WT place in the approximate position shown in the photos, (ie in line with the laundry door and the kitchen window).



The sun catches the corner of the high verandah, in almost the exact position from which Michelle White took this photo (at ground level, of course).



Remember that the sun is higher in the sky it is not on the horizon, so it is shining down directly where it shows in the photos of WT on the verandah wall. Also, notice the roof line (arrow) as it comes from the side of the house above to the polycarbonate roof over a timber frame.



On this photo above (taken a few years after) there is a green garden chair is the approx position of the raised planter with flowers. The flowers are higher on this side and the side closest to the stairs (probably as it gets more sun).

 

[truecrimepath]

I doubt whatever I posted would make any difference to you believing you are correct. However, here is the orientation of the house from six maps, north in the direction you indicated.

View attachment 2137987

I checked your SunCalc which is correct. Then I superimposed this on the above photo of the house (above), with WT place in the approximate position shown in the photos, (ie in line with the laundry door and the kitchen window).

View attachment 2137989

The sun catches the corner of the high verandah, in almost the exact position from which Michelle White took this photo (at ground level, of course).

View attachment 2137994

Remember that the sun is higher in the sky it is not on the horizon, so it is shining down directly where it shows in the photos of WT on the verandah wall. Also, notice the roof line (arrow) as it comes from the side of the house above to the polycarbonate roof over a timber frame.

View attachment 2138008

On this photo above (taken a few years after) there is a green garden chair is the approx position of the raised planter with flowers. The flowers are higher on this side and the side closest to the stairs (probably as it gets more sun).

Well done. extremely close to what I am saying. I accept that. Factually correct, we are in agreement.
1) Your position on the verandah is not accurate to the image. Minor issue. It should be moved to accurately reflect the position.
2) Its not quite where Michelle took the photo. She is left of the position. Minor issue.

Now explain the shadow of the water bottle. and its direction on the verandah. Its not this direction
Now explain the light given it was overcast.
I have added the image below as you can work out the exact light direction on the pot plant using geometry and trigonometry. Ignore my arrow direction.

While you are at it explain the shadow of the verandah post on the planter pot without moving the planter pot.

Its good to see you are starting to analyse it properly.

 

[truecrimepath]

The image did not post

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I did experiments with diffused light like this one on an overcast day. The pink water bottle shadow is not possible for that time of day. The shadow is reduced but the direction is faithful. It's in the wrong direction. The elevation sun is calculated at 38 degrees but in the wrong direction.

You say I made a mistake transposing. I have rechecked many times, the error is too small to make a difference. I don't think I did. Show me your direction on the verandah and how you arrived at it. The mathematics is provided by Suncalc. I have shown my workings, but the standard of others seems to be opinion based and not based on science.

Lastly when you like this inaccurate numpty comment;

'The Michelle White photo was taken from the same direction of the sun indicated on your earlier post. Can you see that the sunlight would have been hitting the back wall of the verandah?'

It is hard to perceive you anything other than a troll. You even deny the shadow on the flower pot and refuse to acknowledge that the only way it could get there in the photo of Michelle White, is if it is moved. You then acknowledge the whole pot disappears from any further images. Did you ever think why the pot disappeared? Just maybe it was an inconvenient truth hiding in plain sight.

Prove it was taken at 9.30.Take some time It can't be taken at 7.30, I agree. I have provided the sun direction in previous posts. It is accurate see below 7.30 was probably the time it was uploaded. Check it if you must using Suncalc etc.

I provide the photos for your convenienceView attachment 2137005

View attachment 2137007



View attachment 2137009




By the way you got the direction of the sun on Williams face correct. The problem of your analysis previously was the actual direction of the sun (expected) at that time. You have to explain the pink water bottle shadow. ie reflected light, but there is no bright object in the yard. I have looked. I find this image difficult for one very important reason and it is how I know it is a fake.

I have a number of observations.

The most persuasive indication of sun direction is a perpendicular object much like a sundial. All others require compensating for the angle of the object/ merging of the three components of shadow through diffusion or merging of separate shadows

The only perpendicular object is the planter stand. It has legs which are true upright else will fall over. BFew and Lady O have calculated true north and confirmed your orientation. I trust their work.

The angle of sun therefore that you superimpose on your diagram appears correct. The planter stand leg creates an indistinct but noticeable shadow which corresponds to the direction you have advocated. That shouldn't be the case that early in the day. If it were later it wouldn't be that direction..Indeed it appears further north than can be possible that time of the year. The furthest north coincides with late june.ie winter which happens to be WTs birthday when seasons change position of earth in context to Sun.

I think there is some merit in your work. I don't buy all the 12-18 mths stuff but I think this needs to be looked at.

There needs to be an explanation for drawings. I don't have one

 

[truecrimepath]

I have a number of observations.

The most persuasive indication of sun direction is a perpendicular object much like a sundial. All others require compensating for the angle of the object/ merging of the three components of shadow through diffusion or merging of separate shadows

The only perpendicular object is the planter stand. It has legs which are true upright else will fall over. BFew and Lady O have calculated true north and confirmed your orientation. I trust their work.

The angle of sun therefore that you superimpose on your diagram appears correct. The planter stand leg creates an indistinct but noticeable shadow which corresponds to the direction you have advocated. That shouldn't be the case that early in the day. If it were later it wouldn't be that direction..Indeed it appears further north than can be possible that time of the year. The furthest north coincides with late june.ie winter which happens to be WTs birthday when seasons change position of earth in context to Sun.

I think there is some merit in your work. I don't buy all the 12-18 mths stuff but I think this needs to be looked at.

Thank you.

 

[Lady O]

Well done. extremely close to what I am saying. I accept that. Factually correct, we are in agreement.
1) Your position on the verandah is not accurate to the image. Minor issue. It should be moved to accurately reflect the position.
2) Its not quite where Michelle took the photo. She is left of the position. Minor issue.

Now explain the shadow of the water bottle. and its direction on the verandah. Its not this direction
Now explain the light given it was overcast.
I have added the image below as you can work out the exact light direction on the pot plant using geometry and trigonometry. Ignore my arrow direction.

While you are at it explain the shadow of the verandah post on the planter pot without moving the planter pot.

Its good to see you are starting to analyse it properly.

Well done. extremely close to what I am saying. I accept that. Factually correct, we are in agreement.
1) Your position on the verandah is not accurate to the image. Minor issue. It should be moved to accurately reflect the position.
2) Its not quite where Michelle took the photo. She is left of the position. Minor issue.

Now explain the shadow of the water bottle. and its direction on the verandah. Its not this direction
Now explain the light given it was overcast.
I have added the image below as you can work out the exact light direction on the pot plant using geometry and trigonometry. Ignore my arrow direction.

While you are at it explain the shadow of the verandah post on the planter pot without moving the planter pot.

Its good to see you are starting to analyse it properly.

I think it was scattered clouds. This means, as I am sure you would know, that the sun might be behind a cloud one moment and completely sunny the next?

Here is the position on the verandah of WT. It is in a similar position to the "roaring" photo, but as you can see, there is less light.