Media Does Match Thread Posting have a Correlation with Qooty Results?

[BRAB]

Throwback Loonerty

 

[GotTheGoodes]

You are suggesting "Sweet FA sides posting stats have secretly been influencing results"

And

"the best posting sides in the comp potentially hogging wins based on their constant output of relevant, enjoyable posts in match threads?"

Wow, sounds like you are suggesting the simmers have been influenced. That's a pretty serious allegation to make I would've thought.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

**** if simming is influenced by posting I have really got to get back to the drawing board.

 

[Firestarter]

Would be nice if people couldn't piss off after 2 days, make the other team carry the thread, and still have the sim go completely in their favour.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

This was the thread BRAB, this was it!! Brilliant!!

WTF happened to you? Degenerating into D grade bitch fighting as a form of "banter". You really were that good.

Geez I hope you find your mojo.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Does Match Thread Posting have a Correlation with Qooty Results?
By BR AB

Much has been said over the true randomness of the sim. The exact nature as to how the sim outputs results is a mystery to many, with league legend Mobbenfuhrer coding the program himself using a microwave.

In theory, the results of the sim should be truly random, in a 2-way contest, that means on average teams should lose as many games as they win. Naturally, this does not occur season to season, as is the nature of a coin toss. Just because something should happen 50% of the time doesn’t mean it will. The small sample size between Sweet FA seasons only amplifies this effect season to season. Even over the course of the entire history of the competition we still don’t yield extremely the high sample sizes to get towards that expected value. Nevertheless, a team like the Demons is probably most suited for this, having played 414 games in their history if you exclude finals. It is pertinent to consider that the expected value of an outcome with two possible results is 0.5, consider also that the experimental value may differ a bit from that. (Oh **** me in the dick draws exist too, for the point of this exercise they do not count) Fundamentally, as more games are simmed in the Sweet FA, we should get closer to that magical 0.5 number. Outliers take us away from that number, specifically, the fact that I doubt Mobbs was capable of designing a truly random sim. Any outliers 2 or more standard deviations outside the norm get more interesting though. These could be driven by factors not yet considered by the league.

Today I am here to analyse whether posting quality or quantity is correlated with the results of the sim.

This is based on a few premises. Firstly, that the ratio of season results (Wins/Games played) should be close to 0.5. This means a team, over its history, should be pretty close to winning as many games as it loses. Anything 2 standard deviation outside that should be investigated, as that forms that last 2.1% of results on either side of a bell curve. We are going to perform this analysis on my club, the demons, in an attempt to find any correlation between posting stats and sim results. Firstly, the raw data.

View attachment 383006

Visually inspecting this data shows us a few values that we could expect to be outliers. 0.77 in Season 3 and 0.25 in season 21 for instance. However, we can confirm these are outliers through standard deviation analysis. By “Standard Deviation analysis” I mean using two commands in excel, and by “analysis” I mean bending the stats to suit my preconceived views.

Anyway, the average ratio for a normal demons season is 0.50. Astonishing really, it means over the Demons history they have won about as many games as they have lost. As in, Mobbs has actually created a random sim. The standard deviation (Number by which any result can deviate from the mean) is 0.12. Using a bell curve, we can determine which results would be considered extreme outliers, and analyse those seasons further.

View attachment 383005

I’m just going to assume the dataset is normally distributed. I doubt anyone will care. Basically, any season 2 standard deviations outside the mean has about a 2.1% chance of happening, (4.2% for both directions of deviation)

In real terms. Any number below 0.26 or above 0.74 can be considered a relatively extreme outlier.

A regular season takes into account natural variation in the sim. If something else influences the sim, say, posting quantity and quality of a team in a specific season, then we can perhaps account for the outliers in this way.

Season 21 from the demons is a pertinent example. The club was in crisis, with posting numbers at their worst in the clubs history relative to other teams at the same time. As a result, the club had the worst ratio of wins to losses in the clubs history.

To me, this starts a compelling case to look into other teams, and determine whether posting quality/quantity has a tangible effect on the results of the sim. From there, we can perform correlation analysis on each specific instance where we suspect an outlier has occurred. My main question is has the Demons example unearthed a smoking gun, whereby for the entire league's history, a Sweet FA sides posting stats have secretly been influencing results and consequently taking teams to glory. Are the best posting sides in the comp potentially hogging wins based on their constant output of relevant, enjoyable posts in match threads?

In my search for another example to support my hypothesis, I ventured into the final matchup of season 23, the Season 23 Grand Final.

View attachment 383004

I have now come to a firm conclusion that posting quality/quantity is in no way correlated with on field Qooty results. What a waste of time.

Enjoy grand final week.

FFS, im belting you during half time for making me read math

 

[I Dont Care]

FFS, im belting you during half time for making me read math

You mean you read it? Ha...egg on your face then

 

[Restricted Free Agent]

Answer: No, dogs105 has 100 odd posts each week and still picks up 3 touches a game

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You mean you read it? Ha...egg on your face then

To quote my grade 6 teacher, "'read' is a generous description for what i do"

 

[nahnah]

You forgot to square root the standard deviation thus unearthing the variance BRAB

Humour. Smarts. Quick-witted.
did captains not see this post when they decided to rob me of an EKA?

 

[TheCoach16]

Does Match Thread Posting have a Correlation with Qooty Results?
By BR AB

Much has been said over the true randomness of the sim. The exact nature as to how the sim outputs results is a mystery to many, with league legend Mobbenfuhrer coding the program himself using a microwave.

In theory, the results of the sim should be truly random, in a 2-way contest, that means on average teams should lose as many games as they win. Naturally, this does not occur season to season, as is the nature of a coin toss. Just because something should happen 50% of the time doesn’t mean it will. The small sample size between Sweet FA seasons only amplifies this effect season to season. Even over the course of the entire history of the competition we still don’t yield extremely the high sample sizes to get towards that expected value. Nevertheless, a team like the Demons is probably most suited for this, having played 414 games in their history if you exclude finals. It is pertinent to consider that the expected value of an outcome with two possible results is 0.5, consider also that the experimental value may differ a bit from that. (Oh **** me in the dick draws exist too, for the point of this exercise they do not count) Fundamentally, as more games are simmed in the Sweet FA, we should get closer to that magical 0.5 number. Outliers take us away from that number, specifically, the fact that I doubt Mobbs was capable of designing a truly random sim. Any outliers 2 or more standard deviations outside the norm get more interesting though. These could be driven by factors not yet considered by the league.

Today I am here to analyse whether posting quality or quantity is correlated with the results of the sim.

This is based on a few premises. Firstly, that the ratio of season results (Wins/Games played) should be close to 0.5. This means a team, over its history, should be pretty close to winning as many games as it loses. Anything 2 standard deviation outside that should be investigated, as that forms that last 2.1% of results on either side of a bell curve. We are going to perform this analysis on my club, the demons, in an attempt to find any correlation between posting stats and sim results. Firstly, the raw data.

View attachment 383006

Visually inspecting this data shows us a few values that we could expect to be outliers. 0.77 in Season 3 and 0.25 in season 21 for instance. However, we can confirm these are outliers through standard deviation analysis. By “Standard Deviation analysis” I mean using two commands in excel, and by “analysis” I mean bending the stats to suit my preconceived views.

Anyway, the average ratio for a normal demons season is 0.50. Astonishing really, it means over the Demons history they have won about as many games as they have lost. As in, Mobbs has actually created a random sim. The standard deviation (Number by which any result can deviate from the mean) is 0.12. Using a bell curve, we can determine which results would be considered extreme outliers, and analyse those seasons further.

View attachment 383005

I’m just going to assume the dataset is normally distributed. I doubt anyone will care. Basically, any season 2 standard deviations outside the mean has about a 2.1% chance of happening, (4.2% for both directions of deviation)

In real terms. Any number below 0.26 or above 0.74 can be considered a relatively extreme outlier.

A regular season takes into account natural variation in the sim. If something else influences the sim, say, posting quantity and quality of a team in a specific season, then we can perhaps account for the outliers in this way.

Season 21 from the demons is a pertinent example. The club was in crisis, with posting numbers at their worst in the clubs history relative to other teams at the same time. As a result, the club had the worst ratio of wins to losses in the clubs history.

To me, this starts a compelling case to look into other teams, and determine whether posting quality/quantity has a tangible effect on the results of the sim. From there, we can perform correlation analysis on each specific instance where we suspect an outlier has occurred. My main question is has the Demons example unearthed a smoking gun, whereby for the entire league's history, a Sweet FA sides posting stats have secretly been influencing results and consequently taking teams to glory. Are the best posting sides in the comp potentially hogging wins based on their constant output of relevant, enjoyable posts in match threads?

In my search for another example to support my hypothesis, I ventured into the final matchup of season 23, the Season 23 Grand Final.

View attachment 383004

I have now come to a firm conclusion that posting quality/quantity is in no way correlated with on field Qooty results. What a waste of time.

Enjoy grand final week.

All this was way too technical and in depth for me to comprehend. I’m sure it was very insightful for those who did understand and/or care...

I do have one comment...you said,

“In theory, the results of the sim should be truly random, in a 2-way contest, that means on average teams should lose as many games as they win.”

This is not true at all. In fact it’s basically the opposite of the definition of random.

In a truly random sim, each result has nothing to do with previous results, or any future results. Every toss of a coin brings its own odds. In this case 50/50. The odds are not determined by any amount of previous tosses. Or any future tosses. It is not beyond the realms of probability for the same result, eg tails, to occur 20, 30, 50 times in a row.
Therefore in a 2-way contest, on average, a truly random sim is just that. Random. There is absolutely no reason to believe or suggest that results will or should “even out” over time. Try playing two-up, or backing red or black in roulette.

 

[BRAB]

All this was way too technical and in depth for me to comprehend. I’m sure it was very insightful for those who did understand and/or care...

I do have one comment...you said,

“In theory, the results of the sim should be truly random, in a 2-way contest, that means on average teams should lose as many games as they win.”

This is not true at all. In fact it’s basically the opposite of the definition of random.

In a truly random sim, each result has nothing to do with previous results, or any future results. Every toss of a coin brings its own odds. In this case 50/50. The odds are not determined by any amount of previous tosses. Or any future tosses. It is not beyond the realms of probability for the same result, eg tails, to occur 20, 30, 50 times in a row.
Therefore in a 2-way contest, on average, a truly random sim is just that. Random. There is absolutely no reason to believe or suggest that results will or should “even out” over time. Try playing two-up, or backing red or black in roulette.

Did you just take the better part of a year to completely miss the point

 

[TheCoach16]

Did you just take the better part of a year to completely miss the point

I only just saw this because you bumped it.
And I think your point was the Bombers are shit posters. If that was it, you hardly needed all the rigmarole. It’s a fairly common view...

 

[BRAB]

I only just saw this because you bumped it.
And I think your point was the Bombers are shit posters. If that was it, you hardly needed all the rigmarole. It’s a fairly common view...

Thanks for your input.

 

[TheCoach16]

Thanks for your input.

Any time.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

You used the word rigmarole.

 

[Loonerty]

All this was way too technical and in depth for me to comprehend. I’m sure it was very insightful for those who did understand and/or care...

I do have one comment...you said,

“In theory, the results of the sim should be truly random, in a 2-way contest, that means on average teams should lose as many games as they win.”

This is not true at all. In fact it’s basically the opposite of the definition of random.

In a truly random sim, each result has nothing to do with previous results, or any future results. Every toss of a coin brings its own odds. In this case 50/50. The odds are not determined by any amount of previous tosses. Or any future tosses. It is not beyond the realms of probability for the same result, eg tails, to occur 20, 30, 50 times in a row.
Therefore in a 2-way contest, on average, a truly random sim is just that. Random. There is absolutely no reason to believe or suggest that results will or should “even out” over time. Try playing two-up, or backing red or black in roulette.

I think you missed the fact that BRAB said should. The expectation is that you'll get as many wins as losses as the number of games increases.

Same with flipping a coin.
If you did it infinite times, you'd approach a 50/50 split of heads and tails.

This is how probability works.

 

[Pugsley]

There it is.

 

[I Dont Care]

I think you missed the fact that BRAB said should. The expectation is that you'll get as many wins as losses as the number of games increases.

Same with flipping a coin.
If you did it infinite times, you'd approach a 50/50 split of heads and tails.

This is how probability works.

Unless the coin is bent...

 

[Pugsley]

Unless the coin is bent...

Well some objects are

 

[Yakker]

Unless the coin is bent...

or buttered on one side

 

[Yakker]

Unless the coin is bent...

or it's a cat

 

[BRAB]

I think you missed the fact that BRAB said should. The expectation is that you'll get as many wins as losses as the number of games increases.

Same with flipping a coin.
If you did it infinite times, you'd approach a 50/50 split of heads and tails.

This is how probability works.

It's actually pretty disturbing how many qualified professionals don't understand basic statistics on this board.

 

[Yakker]

It's actually pretty disturbing how many qualified professionals don't understand basic statistics on this board.

I estimate it at about 84% and yes that's disturbing!

 

[TheCoach16]

I think you missed the fact that BRAB said should. The expectation is that you'll get as many wins as losses as the number of games increases.

Same with flipping a coin.
If you did it infinite times, you'd approach a 50/50 split of heads and tails.

This is how probability works.

I feel we were discussing the nature of a random occurrence. Not probabilities.

Maybe it’s the language that’s confusing me. I would’ve thought when attempting to predict a random event, the terms “hope for” or “preferred result” would be more appropriate than “should” or “the expectation is”...

But what do I know...