Media Does Match Thread Posting have a Correlation with Qooty Results?

[Loonerty]

I feel we were discussing the nature of a random occurrence. Not probabilities.

Maybe it’s the language that’s confusing me. I would’ve thought when attempting to predict a random event, the terms “hope for” or “preferred result” would be more appropriate than “should” or “the expectation is”...

But what do I know...

How is random occurrence different from probability?
Yes, the outcome is random but there's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

It's very simple to prove that you expect a coin toss to even out the more times you toss it.
Expectation is literally a statistical term. Saying "preferred result" or "hope for" implies some bias.

What do you know? When it comes to stats and probability apparently not much.

 

[TheCoach16]

How is random occurrence different from probability?

Is that a serious question?

Probability is the quality of a fact or assumption being probable.
Random is an occurrence that has no defined aim, pattern or reason.

I’d say the two are quite different

 

[Loonerty]

Is that a serious question?

Probability is the quality of a fact or assumption being probable.
Random is an occurrence that has no defined aim, pattern or reason.

I’d say the two are quite different

Probability is the likelihood of something happening.
Random is having no pre-defined affect on the occurrence.

Say you have 5 marbles in a bag, all different colours. Picking one out is random, but there is still a probability with each outcome.

 

[TheCoach16]

Probability is the likelihood of something happening.
Random is having no pre-defined affect on the occurrence.

Say you have 5 marbles in a bag, all different colours. Picking one out is random, but there is still a probability with each outcome.

That’s right. But they are two seperate elements. The probability is based on facts, statistics, math, even science.
The randomness has no base for its outcome.


I seriously can’t believe we’re having this conversation based an OP that was purely created to point out that the bombers are shit posters. Bravo BRAB . Bravo.

 

[Loonerty]

That’s right. But they are two seperate elements. The probability is based on facts, statistics, math, even science.
The randomness has no base for its outcome.


I seriously can’t believe we’re having this conversation based an OP that was purely created to point out that the bombers are shit posters. Bravo BRAB . Bravo.

The randomness has no base in that we can't exactly predict it each time but we get a good enough idea.

If there's 99 black marbles in a bag and 1 white marble in the bag then I can be pretty sure I'll get a black marble. But of course, the white marble exists and I might get it.

The point that was being made is that you said the fact that teams over time winning as much as they lose means there isn't randomness in the sim when the opposite is true. If a team never lost, ever, hundreds of games and they just don't lose. Then we can say that there probably is something going on there because we expect the team to lose just as much as they win over so many games. And so the randomness of the sim has for whatever reason gone in this situation.

 

[TheCoach16]

The randomness has no base in that we can't exactly predict it each time but we get a good enough idea.

If there's 99 black marbles in a bag and 1 white marble in the bag then I can be pretty sure I'll get a black marble. But of course, the white marble exists and I might get it.

The point that was being made is that you said the fact that teams over time winning as much as they lose means there isn't randomness in the sim when the opposite is true. If a team never lost, ever, hundreds of games and they just don't lose. Then we can say that there probably is something going on there because we expect the team to lose just as much as they win over so many games. And so the randomness of the sim has for whatever reason gone in this situation.

No. I have to disagree. Whether a team wins and wins and wins, a hundred times in a row, or they lose a hundred times in a row, or they indeed break even, that’s just the nature of randomness.
Our “expectations”, yours, mine, anyone’s, have nothing to do with the outcome. To assume the randomness has “gone” based on our own expectations would be extremely arrogant and presumptuous on our part.

I expect to win tattslotto every week. I never do. Does that mean something has gone wrong at tattersalls?

I understand your argument, and for the most part I agree with you, but I think you’re placing too much weight on expectations. They are within our control. We choose to put expectations on things. Randomness, by definition, is completely out of our control

 

[Loonerty]

No. I have to disagree. Whether a team wins and wins and wins, a hundred times in a row, or they lose a hundred times in a row, or they indeed break even, that’s just the nature of randomness.
Our “expectations”, yours, mine, anyone’s, have nothing to do with the outcome. To assume the randomness has “gone” based on our own expectations would be extremely arrogant and presumptuous on our part.

I expect to win tattslotto every week. I never do. Does that mean something has gone wrong at tattersalls?

I understand your argument, and for the most part I agree with you, but I think you’re placing too much weight on expectations. They are within our control. We choose to put expectations on things. Randomness, by definition, is completely out of our control

You "expecting" to win tattslotto every week is a stupid example.
This is not a personal expectation. This is a mathematical expectation.
Mathematically we expect a 50/50 split.

Can it happen that you could have thousands of coin tosses in a row be heads? Absolutely. But it's so unlikely that you can't rule out the integrity of the coin being compromised.

You cannot disagree with fact.

 

[BRAB]

Hopefully no patients bring up probability lmao

 

[TheCoach16]

You "expecting" to win tattslotto every week is a stupid example.
This is not a personal expectation. This is a mathematical expectation.
Mathematically we expect a 50/50 split.

Can it happen that you could have thousands of coin tosses in a row be heads? Absolutely. But it's so unlikely that you can't rule out the integrity of the coin being compromised.

You cannot disagree with fact.

Expecting to win tattslotto is “stupid” when you consider the odds are about 8,000,000;1. However not so stupid when you consider there are multiple winners every week, and some people have even won multiple times... so our expectations, again, are our own. And have no bearing on the actual outcome.

You talk about personal expectation vs mathematical expectation. But your expectation is NOT the mathematical expectation. The mathematical expectation is that every toss of the coin is a 50/50, that’s it. The odds don’t change, regardless of the previous tosses.
99 heads in a row does not change the odds of the 100th toss. The odds remain 50/50 and another head is as much a possibility as tails is. Now your expectation may be that “no way a 100th head in a row will happen”. But that’s not fact. That is a personal expectation. The mathematical fact remains, 50/50.

Let’s not confuse facts with what we think should happen, what we expect to happen, or what is supposed to happen...
A random outcome cannot be predicted. Otherwise it’s not random.

 

[TheCoach16]

Hopefully no patients bring up probability lmao

Clients!


Also, you should just be grateful that a fifth page has been added to your thread after a year...

 

[Loonerty]

Expecting to win tattslotto is “stupid” when you consider the odds are about 8,000,000;1. However not so stupid when you consider there are multiple winners every week, and some people have even won multiple times... so our expectations, again, are our own. And have no bearing on the actual outcome.

The chance of winning the jackpot might be 8 million to 1. Just because "someone" wins, doesn't mean you should expect it to be you.

You talk about personal expectation vs mathematical expectation. But your expectation is NOT the mathematical expectation. The mathematical expectation is that every toss of the coin is a 50/50, that’s it. The odds don’t change, regardless of the previous tosses.
99 heads in a row does not change the odds of the 100th toss. The odds remain 50/50 and another head is as much a possibility as tails is. Now your expectation may be that “no way a 100th head in a row will happen”. But that’s not fact. That is a personal expectation. The mathematical fact remains, 50/50

I never said it does. Not once.
If you toss a coin infinite times, it will be a 50/50 split between heads and tails. That is mathematical expectation and how this all works.
If you told me you tossed 99 coins and got all heads, I'd be surprised because that's unlikely. If you then tossed it again and got heads, I wouldn't be surprised because the previous 99 tosses have no weighting on the 100th toss, like you said.

But the fact you've tossed 100 heads in a row is still surprising.

Let’s not confuse facts with what we think should happen, what we expect to happen, or what is supposed to happen...
A random outcome cannot be predicted. Otherwise it’s not random.

Predictions are not exact. They tell us what is likely to occur, but they can be wrong.
See: my 99 black balls in a bag example that you've clearly ignored.

 

[BRAB]

Watching coach get dressed down is my favourite thing.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

Watching coach get dressed down is my favourite thing.

Pervert!

 

[TheCoach16]

If you told me you tossed 99 coins and got all heads, I'd be surprised because that's unlikely. If you then tossed it again and got heads, I wouldn't be surprised because the previous 99 tosses have no weighting on the 100th toss, like you said.

But the fact you've tossed 100 heads in a row is still surprising.

Surprising or just random?

If the 100th head doesn’t surprise you, the first 99 shouldn’t either. Because the first toss had no bearing on the second toss, the previous two had no bearing on the third, the previous 73 had no bearing on the 74th and the previous 99 had no influence in the 100th. You agreed with me on this point.

Therefore, If I did toss 100 heads in a row, you may find it “surprising”, someone else may not. But either way, you’d accept that despite your expectation, it can happen, because each toss is random.

 

[TheCoach16]

Watching coach get dressed down is my favourite thing.

You should see me when I’m dressed up!...

 

[BRAB]

Surprising or just random?

If the 100th head doesn’t surprise you, the first 99 shouldn’t either. Because the first toss had no bearing on the second toss, the previous two had no bearing on the third, the previous 73 had no bearing on the 74th and the previous 99 had no influence in the 100th. You agreed with me on this point.

Therefore, If I did toss 100 heads in a row, you may find it “surprising”, someone else may not. But either way, you’d accept that despite your expectation, it can happen, because each toss is random.

Surely it's just easier to admit you're wrong than further embarrassing yourself mate. It's actually really really sad.

 

[TheCoach16]

Surely it's just easier to admit you're wrong than further embarrassing yourself mate. It's actually really really sad.

As sad as you trotting out the same old lines? Mate.

Here, let me save you some trouble.

“I just came in to embarrass coach, but he’s doing a great job already”

“Cringe”

“I feel sorry for your patients, mate”

“This is surface level, year 10 stuff”

And yet in person, you fumble and stumble, and fall over yourself to be all chummy... or maybe I’m just “wrong”.

 

[NaturalDisaster]

As sad as you trotting out the same old lines? Mate.

Here, let me save you some trouble.

“I just came in to embarrass coach, but he’s doing a great job already”

“Cringe”

“I feel sorry for your patients, mate”

“This is surface level, year 10 stuff”

And yet in person, you fumble and stumble, and fall over yourself to be all chummy... or maybe I’m just “wrong”.

You forgot "literally shaking"

 

[Loonerty]

Surprising or just random?

If the 100th head doesn’t surprise you, the first 99 shouldn’t either. Because the first toss had no bearing on the second toss, the previous two had no bearing on the third, the previous 73 had no bearing on the 74th and the previous 99 had no influence in the 100th. You agreed with me on this point.

Therefore, If I did toss 100 heads in a row, you may find it “surprising”, someone else may not. But either way, you’d accept that despite your expectation, it can happen, because each toss is random.

You are denser than a black hole.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

You are denser than a black hole.

Don’t get personal mate.

 

[Loonerty]

Don’t get personal mate.

Sorry, I'll translate.

Coach, there is literally nothing more that I can say because you refuse to listen to facts about mathematics from someone with a ****ing degree in the field.

Go back to asking people how they feel and leave statistics to people who understand it.

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

Sorry, I'll translate.

Coach, there is literally nothing more that I can say because you refuse to listen to facts about mathematics from someone with a ******* degree in the field.

Go back to asking people how they feel and leave statistics to people who understand it.

Better, thanks.

 

[BRAB]

Sorry, I'll translate.

Coach, there is literally nothing more that I can say because you refuse to listen to facts about mathematics from someone with a ******* degree in the field.

Go back to asking people how they feel and leave statistics to people who understand it.

YAS QUEEN

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

If the 100th head doesn’t surprise you,

My first head surprised me, I was ready for the next one. The surprising part is they have been few are far between since then.

 

[I Dont Care]

My first head surprised me, I was ready for the next one. The surprising part is they have been few are far between since then.

Yeah..I found they do wear out after a while