- Sep 4, 2014
- 3,316
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- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
Been doing a lot of general draft analysis to try to see where things sit. Seeing where you can find value and trying to see if there's anything that's changed and if there's any current trend.
I've done full analysis from 2012 - 2024. More specifically from 2012 - 2019 as you can't get a proper picture any earlier or later than this. I've also done analysis from 2012 - 2017 to properly assess the selections at the 100 game mark.
I've also done a basic summary down the bottom which are really the main points I found most relevant if you can't be bothered reading further.
Here's the basic break down from the 2012 -2019 drafts and the percentages of 50 gamers, Star player's and premiership players from those selections.
For the Star Player column - Player must have either won an All Australian selection, been in the All Australian 40 man squad, won a best & fairest or Brownlow to meet the criteria.
Note: It was generally going pretty good until I came to the delisted F/A row. The "star players" that got in were Mitch Robinson, Jarryd Lyons and Dylan Roberton
so not perfect
2012 -2017 - 100 games or more
(I do have a few more tables but I thought it was easier to just talk about it)
A few observations plus further research
Picks 1 - 10
I also wanted to touch on this. This is quite obviously the worst of the lot statistically and I assume that's because clubs use this for backup purposes mainly. However, clubs do use the rookie list for mature backup as well which does bring the statistics down there too.
It's been mostly good for us, but I do think questions need to be asked if this is the best way to bring players in especially when we turn them over so little. Most clubs I came across turn them over much more quickly. I'd like to do a bit more thorough research on this whole thing and in particular focus on Geelong who have only brought in two delisted free agents since now and 2012. One of those was Stengle so that helped them greatly as well, but they seem to mainly favour going for state league players (and not just their own like we tend to do) over the dregs from other clubs and I wish we would do the same.
I mean imagine having Mannagh and Humphries over Bramble and Poulter. Bramble has been good, but Geelong just took it a step further and made an even bigger improvement to their list then what we've ever done.
2020 - 2023 Drafts - A Slight change in pattern
Probably comes as no surprise as you can see where the game is heading now but there has been a change in the last 4 years.
This here gives you a glimpse into what's changed comparing the 2012 -2019 drafts to the last 4 drafts.
So what's noticeable is there's a fairly big increase in small forward numbers and key forward numbers while there's less medium forwards and less utilities getting picked.
Diving into it a bit deeper this is a break down of just the three positions
Small forwards
Utilities
Medium Forwards
Pretty obvious to say that medium forwards are no longer popular. It doesn't really help that this had the 2nd poorest hit rate as well and it seems the game values small forwards more so now. The increase in key forward numbers is interesting as well and maybe clubs are looking to go for a tall forward line with smalls at their feet. I'm not sure though as the percentages were pretty much the same from picks 1 to 100 for key forwards. The increase is coming from the mid season and rookie draft where clubs seem to be looking for role players or backup players here and perhaps turning these players over more regularly.
Overall Summary – Main Points
And that's about it for now. I will do a break down of our draft as well as what positions we've drafted for as well
I've done full analysis from 2012 - 2024. More specifically from 2012 - 2019 as you can't get a proper picture any earlier or later than this. I've also done analysis from 2012 - 2017 to properly assess the selections at the 100 game mark.
I've also done a basic summary down the bottom which are really the main points I found most relevant if you can't be bothered reading further.
Here's the basic break down from the 2012 -2019 drafts and the percentages of 50 gamers, Star player's and premiership players from those selections.
| Picks | Total Selections | 50 games or more % | Star Player % | Premiership Player % |
| 1 - 10 + Mini draft | 82 | 85% | 42% | 14% |
| 11 to 20 | 80 | 68% | 13% | 10% |
| 21 - 30 | 80 | 60% | 18% | 15% |
| 31 - 40 | 80 | 40% | 5% | 14% |
| 41 -50 | 79 | 37% | 11% | 7% |
| 51+ & PSD | 182 | 34% | 7% | 4% |
| Rookie Cat A & Midseason | 258 | 22% | 5% | 4% |
| Delisted F/A & SSP | 69 | 20% | 4% | 1% |
For the Star Player column - Player must have either won an All Australian selection, been in the All Australian 40 man squad, won a best & fairest or Brownlow to meet the criteria.
Note: It was generally going pretty good until I came to the delisted F/A row. The "star players" that got in were Mitch Robinson, Jarryd Lyons and Dylan Roberton
so not perfect2012 -2017 - 100 games or more
| Picks | 100 games or more % |
| 1 - 10 + Mini draft | 66% |
| 11 to 20 | 57% |
| 21 - 30 | 53% |
| 31 - 40 | 23% |
| 41 -50 | 27% |
| 51+ & PSD | 20% |
| Rookie Cat A | 18% |
| Delisted F/A & SSP | 6% |
A few observations plus further research
Picks 1 - 10
- 66% of players drafted here go on to become 100 game players
- 42% become star players
- 56% are midfielders and 46% of those midfielders become star players
- Medium defenders have the worst hit rate here with over 62% of them unable to get to 100 games and only 2 defenders made it in the star column
- 57% make it to 100 games but only 13% are in the star column
- Medium forwards and utilities were by far the worst performed with only 1 player out of 12 making it to 50 games
- All other positions had a decent hit rate
- Quite a large drop off in midfield numbers. 40% less get taken here compared to the previous picks
- 53% make it to 100 games and there's a 5% increase in the star’s column compared to the previous pick
- Both mediums forward, back and utilities appear to be the hardest to pick from. Key defenders also having a hard time
- Same number of mids were selected here to previous picks with quality levels similar
- Good quality small forwards are getting picked in this area
- Significant drop off in quality occurs. 20% less 50 gamers and 30% less 100 gamers to pick from then previous picks
- Still plenty of midfielders taken, almost the same number as previous two picks, but the drop off in quality is very easy to see. Just 5 out of 23 make it to 100 games with no star quality players to speak of
- Forwards don't do well here across all lines as well. Only 3 made it past 50 games, Fritsch the only bright spot
- Rucks present some good value here
- 11% made it into the star column and 27% were 100 gamers, so still some quality here
- Small defenders become the most relevant here and keep staying relevant throughout this point
- Some good quality tall defenders get taken here also
- There's a 34% chance a player will get to 50 games here and there's a 20% chance a player will get to 100 games which was surprising
- A fair increase in defender numbers across all 3 positions. 41% of those become 50 gamers and 10% of those are in the star column as well
- Small forward numbers are very high here too, 2nd to mids. 41% get to 50 games here too.
- Seem to be able to find a rare diamond in the rough in the key forwards here as well
- Highest number of players taken is still from the mids (like it is across every row). Shocking hit rate here, only 9% reach 50 games which is the lowest number across any position and pick
- Small forwards are the 2nd highest in numbers and 2nd highest hit rate
- Medium and tall defenders also with good numbers and a lot of decent role players
- Small defenders present the most value here though. 40% get to 50 games or more and the quality here is really good with 23% of those making it into the star column
I also wanted to touch on this. This is quite obviously the worst of the lot statistically and I assume that's because clubs use this for backup purposes mainly. However, clubs do use the rookie list for mature backup as well which does bring the statistics down there too.
It's been mostly good for us, but I do think questions need to be asked if this is the best way to bring players in especially when we turn them over so little. Most clubs I came across turn them over much more quickly. I'd like to do a bit more thorough research on this whole thing and in particular focus on Geelong who have only brought in two delisted free agents since now and 2012. One of those was Stengle so that helped them greatly as well, but they seem to mainly favour going for state league players (and not just their own like we tend to do) over the dregs from other clubs and I wish we would do the same.
I mean imagine having Mannagh and Humphries over Bramble and Poulter. Bramble has been good, but Geelong just took it a step further and made an even bigger improvement to their list then what we've ever done.
2020 - 2023 Drafts - A Slight change in pattern
Probably comes as no surprise as you can see where the game is heading now but there has been a change in the last 4 years.
This here gives you a glimpse into what's changed comparing the 2012 -2019 drafts to the last 4 drafts.
| Utility | Rucks | Small Def | Mids | Small Fwd | KPD | KPF | Med Def | Med Fwd |
| -48% | +8% | +7% | +3% | +18% | +3% | +23% | -8% | - 39% |
So what's noticeable is there's a fairly big increase in small forward numbers and key forward numbers while there's less medium forwards and less utilities getting picked.
Diving into it a bit deeper this is a break down of just the three positions
| Picks | Small Forward | Utility | Medium Forward |
| 1 - 20 | 0% | -60% | -33% |
| 21 - 30 | +45% | -71% | -20% |
| 31 - 40 | +25% | -100% | -33% |
| 41 -50 | +63% | -100% | -55% |
| 51+, Rookie & Mid season | -2% | -13% | -41% |
Small forwards
- The number of small forwards at the top end and back end of the draft is relatively the same
- In the middle of the draft from picks 20 - 50 the number of small forwards have almost doubled
- On average an extra 3 small forwards are taken in the draft every year
Utilities
- Only two utilities were taken from picks 1 - 50 in the last 4 drafts
- Still a high number taken towards the back end of the draft
Medium Forwards
Pretty obvious to say that medium forwards are no longer popular. It doesn't really help that this had the 2nd poorest hit rate as well and it seems the game values small forwards more so now. The increase in key forward numbers is interesting as well and maybe clubs are looking to go for a tall forward line with smalls at their feet. I'm not sure though as the percentages were pretty much the same from picks 1 to 100 for key forwards. The increase is coming from the mid season and rookie draft where clubs seem to be looking for role players or backup players here and perhaps turning these players over more regularly.
Overall Summary – Main Points
- Picks 1 -10 have the most star players in this range by a country mile
- After pick 30 the chances of you finding a 100 gamer goes down by more than 25%
- Midfielders are not that great after pick 30. There is the odd gem like Warner, but there is a 5% chance of that happening. Much higher odds in that 1- 30 range to even just find a good old 100 game player.
- Medium forwards, defenders and utilities can be hard to pick even at the top end of the draft.
- There's still high quality small defenders available from pick 40 to the very end of the draft
- The value of small forwards are now increasing and there's more of the little bastards
- The number of medium forwards and utilities is decreasing
And that's about it for now. I will do a break down of our draft as well as what positions we've drafted for as well
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