Thorgils
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Time ever creeping forward has once again spurred the great DT minds into action, it's time to starting think of your picks for 2011.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
DT 2011 Forwards Thread
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Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Probably need to wait for positioning before going too far with the forwards.
Depending on the eligibility of Thomas, Douglas, Ablett, Sidebottom types could change how many coaches structure up.
DP to become even more important this year, plenty hoping theres a cheap link from the fwds to the mids (looking at you Krak)
Probably need to wait for positioning before going too far with the forwards.
Depending on the eligibility of Thomas, Douglas, Ablett, Sidebottom types could change how many coaches structure up.
DP to become even more important this year, plenty hoping theres a cheap link from the fwds to the mids (looking at you Krak)
Thorgils
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Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Agree, Krak looks like a very important one for 2011, DP will make him invaluable. Still confused on his price, I certainly don't think he will be rookie priced.
in 2007 he averaged 48 and hasnt played since surely it would be a decent deduction for 2011.
Agree, Krak looks like a very important one for 2011, DP will make him invaluable. Still confused on his price, I certainly don't think he will be rookie priced.
in 2007 he averaged 48 and hasnt played since surely it would be a decent deduction for 2011.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Well the most important factor is where your best cover is. The value is being able to switch Krak with a mid DP into the forwards to cover say Roo in round 4 and then play a good bench rookie. Doesn't matter a rats having say Krak as a forward bench with mid eligibility if your mid bench is crap. i spose the message is that having good bench cover is going to be critical this year. Having an outstanding bench rookie with bench cover could be the difference.
Well the most important factor is where your best cover is. The value is being able to switch Krak with a mid DP into the forwards to cover say Roo in round 4 and then play a good bench rookie. Doesn't matter a rats having say Krak as a forward bench with mid eligibility if your mid bench is crap. i spose the message is that having good bench cover is going to be critical this year. Having an outstanding bench rookie with bench cover could be the difference.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Hard to tell what impact it'll have but will move him up the tagging order. Probably second now behind Selwood.
One thing is certain he'll be in the top 3 averaging forwards barring injury. But with Chappy that's always a big question mark
Hard to tell what impact it'll have but will move him up the tagging order. Probably second now behind Selwood.
One thing is certain he'll be in the top 3 averaging forwards barring injury. But with Chappy that's always a big question mark
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
When does an injury prone player become durable.. I mean he has a history of hammy injuries, but only missed one game last year... compare that to Franklin (17), Didak (20), Sylvia (15), SJ (19). Only 5 of the top 20 forwards played more games than him.
Green (extremely durable) Thomas (prob a centre) Goodes (age?) Harvey (age?) Gia (rollercoster year last year)
Chapman to me is a player you must start with, especially if guys like Ablett, Thomas are midfielders. He has an average of ~14ppg more than any other forward. We have more trades this year which mean starting with Chapman becomes less of a risk.
To me the question is who are the others we should start with?
Riewoldt is a must.
Green is the obvious in terms of durability.
Sylvia bigger durability issues than Chapman. Is clearly underpriced due to his poor start to the year, might be one who is worth the risk.
When does an injury prone player become durable.. I mean he has a history of hammy injuries, but only missed one game last year... compare that to Franklin (17), Didak (20), Sylvia (15), SJ (19). Only 5 of the top 20 forwards played more games than him.
Green (extremely durable) Thomas (prob a centre) Goodes (age?) Harvey (age?) Gia (rollercoster year last year)
Chapman to me is a player you must start with, especially if guys like Ablett, Thomas are midfielders. He has an average of ~14ppg more than any other forward. We have more trades this year which mean starting with Chapman becomes less of a risk.
To me the question is who are the others we should start with?
Riewoldt is a must.
Green is the obvious in terms of durability.
Sylvia bigger durability issues than Chapman. Is clearly underpriced due to his poor start to the year, might be one who is worth the risk.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Apart from getting the rookies right which will be even more important this year the area with the most pitfalls imo is the premium forwards. Most of top ten are aging, showing injury worries etc. Picking one or two breakouts from the next tier down would be very useful but who are they---Rioli? Jetta? Garlett? McAffer? who??
Apart from getting the rookies right which will be even more important this year the area with the most pitfalls imo is the premium forwards. Most of top ten are aging, showing injury worries etc. Picking one or two breakouts from the next tier down would be very useful but who are they---Rioli? Jetta? Garlett? McAffer? who??
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Both Skipworth and Cuz both only received a 10% discount for their time on the sidelines- so you'll prolly be looking at what, a $180k price after discounting. Less due to the overall salary drop- but there abouts.
Both Skipworth and Cuz both only received a 10% discount for their time on the sidelines- so you'll prolly be looking at what, a $180k price after discounting. Less due to the overall salary drop- but there abouts.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
You're probably right Walesy and if so then he becomes very much line ball for me. At that price there are the top rookies and probably Foley in the mids and not far away Knights in the forwards all of whom might be better value. Yes he won the Sandover but he's no Barlow and is 28 going to the premiership team. At 84k yes please. At 180k not so sure.
You're probably right Walesy and if so then he becomes very much line ball for me. At that price there are the top rookies and probably Foley in the mids and not far away Knights in the forwards all of whom might be better value. Yes he won the Sandover but he's no Barlow and is 28 going to the premiership team. At 84k yes please. At 180k not so sure.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Especially considering he probably isn't best 21 atm either. Brad Dick will be preferred, he is Micks love child.
Especially considering he probably isn't best 21 atm either. Brad Dick will be preferred, he is Micks love child.
RichoGun
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Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
One from slightly left field is Matt de Boer. Coming off the rookie list he has had to fight to make the team. Ferocious tackler, gets a little bit of the ball, has had the yips quite badly and has been a defensive forward.
However he is coming into his third season, now part of the leadership group and has been mooted as a midfield rotation (swapping with Crowley?). If he can start slotting some goals whilst playing more game time has plenty of upside.
The question is whether he can improve 30 pts. I'm not sure he can but if he does get C/F status could be useful.
One from slightly left field is Matt de Boer. Coming off the rookie list he has had to fight to make the team. Ferocious tackler, gets a little bit of the ball, has had the yips quite badly and has been a defensive forward.
However he is coming into his third season, now part of the leadership group and has been mooted as a midfield rotation (swapping with Crowley?). If he can start slotting some goals whilst playing more game time has plenty of upside.
The question is whether he can improve 30 pts. I'm not sure he can but if he does get C/F status could be useful.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Love DeBoer as a player, turning into one of my favourites. As you say, great tackler but just not sure he finds enough of it to warrant selection at his price. DP may bring him under consideration but I'd want to see more cheap stuff from him before selecting
Love DeBoer as a player, turning into one of my favourites. As you say, great tackler but just not sure he finds enough of it to warrant selection at his price. DP may bring him under consideration but I'd want to see more cheap stuff from him before selecting
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Krak has missed three full seasons. His last season was 2007 and consisted of 9 games with a DT average of just under 50. That equates to approx. 210k according to the Fanplanner.
Benny and Skippy were out of action for one and two seasons respectively so hopefully Krak gets a better discount than 10%.
20%+ and DP would be nice.
Krak has missed three full seasons. His last season was 2007 and consisted of 9 games with a DT average of just under 50. That equates to approx. 210k according to the Fanplanner.
Benny and Skippy were out of action for one and two seasons respectively so hopefully Krak gets a better discount than 10%.
20%+ and DP would be nice.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Yeh, VS do chop and change the discounts a bit though from year to year. IIRC Stewie Dew got 30% in 2008 after missing '07.
Krak has missed three full seasons. His last season was 2007 and consisted of 9 games with a DT average of just under 50. That equates to approx. 210k according to the Fanplanner.
Benny and Skippy were out of action for one and two seasons respectively so hopefully Krak gets a better discount than 10%.
20%+ and DP would be nice.
Yeh, VS do chop and change the discounts a bit though from year to year. IIRC Stewie Dew got 30% in 2008 after missing '07.
Docker Dolph
All Australian
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
I'll be watching Nat Fyfe in the NAB. He's been doing a big running load in the PS and played significant time in the midfield last year. I'd expect that to increase along with his scoring.
I'll be watching Nat Fyfe in the NAB. He's been doing a big running load in the PS and played significant time in the midfield last year. I'd expect that to increase along with his scoring.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Agree with favourites on just about all points. Chapman is what i call a super premium. Last year there were 3 super premiums, goddard, sandilands and chapman. What makes goddard and chapman even better is they are dual position. Rookies like Dyson Heppell and Ben Jacobs, along with Tendai Mzungu and Ian Callinan become more valuable because you can easily swap players around (not sure if callinan is in the best 21).
I will call it now, i think the forwards will be the biggest problem. There are 3 backs that you can lock in as premiums (Goddard,Gibbs,Deledio) all of which are durable, there are always good mids, but the forwards are lacking in my opinion.
Looking at the highest averaging players last year
1. Chapman 113
Locked in, Dual position adds value. Super Premium (averages 10 or more than the next next best player from this position)
2. Franklin 99
The highest scoring genuine forward. Had a great year last year, his first two games were slow 67 and 74, but powered on from there. Averaged 103 from his last 15 games, but could be fully priced.
3. Didak 99
The perfect upgrade target. He can have a game where he gets a hard tag (yes i know they have swan and pendles, im talking about a forward tag). Last year it was round 2 where he put up a 52 against melbourne, but he usually drops 50-70k by round 8-9.
4. Green
Like most forwards can struggle when playing deep forward (as shown by his 49 against port adelaide in round 21). Averaged 98 for the year and as a ctr/forward would be a premium forward option. Like goodes and Harvey, wrong side of 30 now.
5. Sylvia
No doubt can score, dual positioned, averaged 111 in his last 7 games last year. However the past 6 years, never played more than 18 games (with team having byes, durability is more valuable than ever).
N/A D Thomas (played midfield, dont expect to be a forward)
6. Harvey
7. Goodes
Both stars of the game, but both aging.
7. S johnson
Can put up a 150 but can also put up a 35 which will mean his price will drop. Played 22 games once in 9 year career. How will geelong go next year? his scores depend on them being a top 4 side.
Others
- Nick Riewoldt, under priced because of the 20 when he was injured, and eased back into his first 2 games back. Every man and his dog will have him again.
- Mitch Morton moved to the midfield, should be dual positioned which could add value. Averaged 99 from his last 6 in the midfield, played well there too with 2 SC scores over 140 and priced at 75.
Agree with favourites on just about all points. Chapman is what i call a super premium. Last year there were 3 super premiums, goddard, sandilands and chapman. What makes goddard and chapman even better is they are dual position. Rookies like Dyson Heppell and Ben Jacobs, along with Tendai Mzungu and Ian Callinan become more valuable because you can easily swap players around (not sure if callinan is in the best 21).
I will call it now, i think the forwards will be the biggest problem. There are 3 backs that you can lock in as premiums (Goddard,Gibbs,Deledio) all of which are durable, there are always good mids, but the forwards are lacking in my opinion.
Looking at the highest averaging players last year
1. Chapman 113
Locked in, Dual position adds value. Super Premium (averages 10 or more than the next next best player from this position)
2. Franklin 99
The highest scoring genuine forward. Had a great year last year, his first two games were slow 67 and 74, but powered on from there. Averaged 103 from his last 15 games, but could be fully priced.
3. Didak 99
The perfect upgrade target. He can have a game where he gets a hard tag (yes i know they have swan and pendles, im talking about a forward tag). Last year it was round 2 where he put up a 52 against melbourne, but he usually drops 50-70k by round 8-9.
4. Green
Like most forwards can struggle when playing deep forward (as shown by his 49 against port adelaide in round 21). Averaged 98 for the year and as a ctr/forward would be a premium forward option. Like goodes and Harvey, wrong side of 30 now.
5. Sylvia
No doubt can score, dual positioned, averaged 111 in his last 7 games last year. However the past 6 years, never played more than 18 games (with team having byes, durability is more valuable than ever).
N/A D Thomas (played midfield, dont expect to be a forward)
6. Harvey
7. Goodes
Both stars of the game, but both aging.
7. S johnson
Can put up a 150 but can also put up a 35 which will mean his price will drop. Played 22 games once in 9 year career. How will geelong go next year? his scores depend on them being a top 4 side.
Others
- Nick Riewoldt, under priced because of the 20 when he was injured, and eased back into his first 2 games back. Every man and his dog will have him again.
- Mitch Morton moved to the midfield, should be dual positioned which could add value. Averaged 99 from his last 6 in the midfield, played well there too with 2 SC scores over 140 and priced at 75.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
With the forwards, I think it is essential to start those premiums who you think are certainties to make the top 7 forwards for the year (obvious) AND who have the lowest volatilities (not so obvious). Players who average high and have a low volatilties are much harder to bring into your side during the season as they rarely get low scores rolling through their average. You can only look at historical volatilities but you might be able to identify trends which will help you make a decision on the players which may have a higher probability of maintaining this trend going into 2011.
I think another consideration for the forwards is that in the past, forward premiums have tended to have patches of high scoring volatility (see 2010 Boomer, Goodes, Sylvia), probably moreso than all other positions. I think there is some merit in picking midpricers up forward, in particular ones who have lower scoring volatility. Ultimately you would love the midpricer to become a keeper, but at worst (fingers crossed) they hold their value or increase slightly so you can pounce on these volatile forward premiums via a straight swap (or use of very little cash). Last year, for example, I was able to swap Hall for Pav (albeit late in the season) as Pav's price dropped significantly.
With the forwards, I think it is essential to start those premiums who you think are certainties to make the top 7 forwards for the year (obvious) AND who have the lowest volatilities (not so obvious). Players who average high and have a low volatilties are much harder to bring into your side during the season as they rarely get low scores rolling through their average. You can only look at historical volatilities but you might be able to identify trends which will help you make a decision on the players which may have a higher probability of maintaining this trend going into 2011.
I think another consideration for the forwards is that in the past, forward premiums have tended to have patches of high scoring volatility (see 2010 Boomer, Goodes, Sylvia), probably moreso than all other positions. I think there is some merit in picking midpricers up forward, in particular ones who have lower scoring volatility. Ultimately you would love the midpricer to become a keeper, but at worst (fingers crossed) they hold their value or increase slightly so you can pounce on these volatile forward premiums via a straight swap (or use of very little cash). Last year, for example, I was able to swap Hall for Pav (albeit late in the season) as Pav's price dropped significantly.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Nice post Chad, hard to argue with a lot of that. Premium and mid priced fwds look tough this year. Ageing premiums with doubts and most fully priced (excl Volt), mid rangers with question marks. One you didn't mention was Cyril who's headed for the midfield and could step up to premium level. 40K more expensive than a Morton type but has shown he can go high with time in the guts. Interesting to see if he gets DP
Nice post Chad, hard to argue with a lot of that. Premium and mid priced fwds look tough this year. Ageing premiums with doubts and most fully priced (excl Volt), mid rangers with question marks. One you didn't mention was Cyril who's headed for the midfield and could step up to premium level. 40K more expensive than a Morton type but has shown he can go high with time in the guts. Interesting to see if he gets DP
bombermick
Norm Smith Medallist
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Good discussion here guys. There appear to be few forward premiums who you can trust not too fluctuate too much in price. If you can get it right (Green last year), you'll be doing very well.
Good discussion here guys. There appear to be few forward premiums who you can trust not too fluctuate too much in price. If you can get it right (Green last year), you'll be doing very well.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Key forward Drew Petrie, whose 2010 season was wrecked by stress fractures in both feet, was not risked in the run on the hard surface, but he's ready for full training.
"I had some X-rays in December and the cracks in both feet are no longer there, there's new bone growth and some calcification which is covering the cracks. And that gives me more belief in being able to play again," Petrie said.
From the HUN. Didn't feel re-assured by it one little bit. A big risk imo.
Key forward Drew Petrie, whose 2010 season was wrecked by stress fractures in both feet, was not risked in the run on the hard surface, but he's ready for full training.
"I had some X-rays in December and the cracks in both feet are no longer there, there's new bone growth and some calcification which is covering the cracks. And that gives me more belief in being able to play again," Petrie said.
From the HUN. Didn't feel re-assured by it one little bit. A big risk imo.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Freaking big risk. But if you don't have him, and he pays off- it's gunna take a lot of catchup.
Freaking big risk. But if you don't have him, and he pays off- it's gunna take a lot of catchup.
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
Ouch!
You can imagine with dodgey feet he'll hardly leave the forward 50. Already stated by North he'll play forward but based on that it's easy to see him plonked in the goal square just using his marking ability.
Ouch!
You can imagine with dodgey feet he'll hardly leave the forward 50. Already stated by North he'll play forward but based on that it's easy to see him plonked in the goal square just using his marking ability.
bombermick
Norm Smith Medallist
Re: 2011 Forwards Thread
x2. No chance of doing well if you don't pick him and he averages 80 odd. Hmm.
x2. No chance of doing well if you don't pick him and he averages 80 odd. Hmm.
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