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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Early Markets
- Thread starter Vince Masuka
- Start date
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- #27
****ing laffo. Gold.
Anyway i see a few of you have the Blues around $1.70 or so for this week. I can only hope the bookies are as generous as they will beat the Bombers quite easily.
LOL
St Kilda 1.25
Adelaide 5.00
North Melbourne 1.30
Brisbane 4.35
Sydney 1.70
Bulldogs 2.38
Gold Coast 33.33
Collingwood 1.03
Essendon 2.85
Carlton 1.54
Geelong 1.05
Richmond 20.00
Melbourne 5.00
Hawthorn 1.25
Fremantle 2.70
West Coast 1.59
what reasons for Carlton to easily knock Essendon over?
Carlton havn't beaten anyone yet this year and no one good since Round 7 2010, they never match up well against Essendon either.
Carlton havn't beaten anyone yet this year and no one good since Round 7 2010, they never match up well against Essendon either.
StringyDog
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But Essendon aren't anyone and are not very good, right up Carlton's alley
Yeah, they won't be contenders.
They should have beaten Geelong and I thought they were good on Saturday. You could argue that Collingwood were inaccurate and it could have been more, but the Blues were right with the Pies for long periods of the match, going goal for goal (3rd term was a good example of this).
Essendon have barely got across the line against Adelaide (who have lost to Port this year, and dont know how to win), and Richmond (who blew a similar half time lead, but have lost to both Port and Gold Coast in recent times.
The Hirdymoon is over and don't let their last couple of performances fool you.
Carlton at $1.60+ would be a nice bet IMO
They should have beaten Geelong and I thought they were good on Saturday. You could argue that Collingwood were inaccurate and it could have been more, but the Blues were right with the Pies for long periods of the match, going goal for goal (3rd term was a good example of this).
Essendon have barely got across the line against Adelaide (who have lost to Port this year, and dont know how to win), and Richmond (who blew a similar half time lead, but have lost to both Port and Gold Coast in recent times.
The Hirdymoon is over and don't let their last couple of performances fool you.
Carlton at $1.60+ would be a nice bet IMO
carpsi
Senior List
Yeah, they won't be contenders.
They should have beaten Geelong and I thought they were good on Saturday. You could argue that Collingwood were inaccurate and it could have been more, but the Blues were right with the Pies for long periods of the match, going goal for goal (3rd term was a good example of this).
Essendon have barely got across the line against Adelaide (who have lost to Port this year, and dont know how to win), and Richmond (who blew a similar half time lead, but have lost to both Port and Gold Coast in recent times.
The Hirdymoon is over and don't let their last couple of performances fool you.
Carlton at $1.60+ would be a nice bet IMO
Yeah but if you put it like that, Essendon beat Geelong, Westcoast and Western bulldogs all teams Carlton havent beaten this season. Essendon matchup well against Carlton. We drew against them with 2 acl injuries in the 1st quarter. If you look at the last 3 weeks Essendon are in better form. Carlton have had a tougher run in that 3 weeks but should have won 2 of those games. Out of form and a mob of pretenders
Nothing
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Didn't acknowledge it. Therefore you plagiarised it. As someone said you have no credibility left on this board you should probably slink off.
Using examples like they just beat them, who lost to them is pointless
If you wanted too you could swing it with Crows beat the Swans in conditions suited to the Swans, and that Sydney are the only top 8 side Carlton has beaten since May last year etc
Gold Coast beating Richmond wasn't a surprise?
Like I've said they aren't contenders and won't beat Collingwood or Geelong in a prelim.
They are downhill skiers though, and love to smash bottom 8 sides. Essendon fall into this category. I don't think it will be that easy for Carlton but they should win by 4-5 goals in the end IMO.
carpsi
Senior List
I reckon if I asked you if they were your odds you would of said Yes. You only admitted they werent yours because you got caught plagurising. If you read the very 1st post of this thread that Vince posted, he clearly says to post "your own market". You instead decided to copy and paste.
No one on this forum respects you or gives you any credibility due to the constant amount of moronic posts from yourself.
I feel its time for you to wave goodbye
no i wouldn't have you just want to think the worst of people. This thread was the perfect opportunity to post something from footyforecaster so I did. Im sorry for my contribution to this thread. Why would I claim it as my own anyway doesn't make sense what would be the point it is not like i would get anything out of it like its being marked or something.
you didn't contribute anything
lockscombi
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Hi Vince. Love the simple equation to work out your own markets. My question however is, how do you work out the winning % of each team? Is it up to the individual? Do you calculate the winning margin of each game first?
Couple of months ago I was so inspired by Lenny29's value system approach that I made up my own chart that allows me to see VALUE by marking the winning margin for each H2H. Basically I mark a certain amount of points in relation to the odds given, for eg: 20 points is worth $3, 30 points $4 etc. If I see a team that will lose by no more than 20 points and they are at $4, There is my VALUE by $1..
Of course this is a inexact science, As you already know. What do you think is the best way to calculate the winning teams %? Hope I wasn't too confusing.
P.S Thanks Lenny for explaining your concept about UNITS. It took me a couple of go's but I understood it in the end
denitofinito
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Bit late to the party and have ignored the first 3 pages for purity's sake.
St Kilda1.26 Adelaide 4.80
Kangaroos1.38 Brisbane 3.60
Sydney 1.84 Bulldogs 2.19
Gold Coast 20.00 Collingwood 1.05
Essendon 2.08 Carlton 1.92
Geelong 1.20 Richmond 6.00
Melbourne 4.00 Hawthorn 1.33
Fremantle 2.30 West Coast 1.76
St Kilda1.26 Adelaide 4.80
Kangaroos1.38 Brisbane 3.60
Sydney 1.84 Bulldogs 2.19
Gold Coast 20.00 Collingwood 1.05
Essendon 2.08 Carlton 1.92
Geelong 1.20 Richmond 6.00
Melbourne 4.00 Hawthorn 1.33
Fremantle 2.30 West Coast 1.76
Vince Masuka
Club Legend
- Thread starter
- #45
Actually a good way to go about it. Make your own, unbiased, then read the thoughts of others. That way, you can be sure that you are practicing finding the value for you, and arent swayed by others.
Of course, adjustments are usually made, but it's a good way to go about it first up.
Vince Masuka
Club Legend
- Thread starter
- #46
You are pretty much setting your own markets with that approach anyway. It sounds a great way to spot value. Setting a market would be the same way you work out your points based system, all you need to do is work out the percentages in relation to your points.Hi Vince. Love the simple equation to work out your own markets. My question however is, how do you work out the winning % of each team? Is it up to the individual? Do you calculate the winning margin of each game first?
Couple of months ago I was so inspired by Lenny29's value system approach that I made up my own chart that allows me to see VALUE by marking the winning margin for each H2H. Basically I mark a certain amount of points in relation to the odds given, for eg: 20 points is worth $3, 30 points $4 etc. If I see a team that will lose by no more than 20 points and they are at $4, There is my VALUE by $1..
Of course this is a inexact science, As you already know. What do you think is the best way to calculate the winning teams %? Hope I wasn't too confusing.
P.S Thanks Lenny for explaining your concept about UNITS. It took me a couple of go's but I understood it in the end
It's almost like you are setting the line for each game and working back to get your h2h prices, if that makes sense. As long as you are finding value, it matters little how you get there
For me, I work out who I think should be favourite. It's the favourites price which then determines the other teams price. Obviously the team I think will win will be the favourite for me, so then I just go about moulding the market to the sort of match I think will be played. Much like your points based value system, without actually assigning the points.
Vince Masuka
Club Legend
- Thread starter
- #47
Essendon, Hawthorn and Freo the value for me this week from the 1st odds posting
denitofinito
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Bombers big value for me. Brisbane too, but I hadn't factored in Brown's injury yet.
well well now that the round 18 thread has been put up, footyforecaster was the most accurate, seems as if I did contribute something after all. Especially on the carlton and West Coast odds that some people laughed at. Go Footyforecaster ! I don't even you use it just knew about it.
Nothing
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