Expansion AND Contraction. AFL Teams.

[Chadwiko]

Just to add to SLF's point that 'the notion that a national competition needs to have en even spread of teams is crap', I present to you Exhibit A;

The NFL in the US is one of the biggest and most profitable sporting leagues in the world, yet most of their teams are concentrated on the east coast. No one complains about this, because that is where the highest population concentration is, and therefore, it's where the sustainable future of the game is.

The same goes with Victoria, as that is where the largest number of AFL fan's reside.

All the clowns saying there are too many teams in Victoria need to actually stop and think about that position. The Victorian team with the lowest membership still has more members than Sydney or Brisbane, or extremely close to it.

But, instead of actually thinking about the issue, people seem to instead just think that if you merge/relocate/fold a Vic team, that instant success will be enjoyed;

 

[MarkT]

No doubt? Untapped markets?

This is all assumption. What is an untapped market if it is untappable within a reasonable timeframe for a reasonable cost? There is zero science behind all the “optimum” club numbers thrown around.

Maybe there are too many Melbourne clubs. Maybe there are not enough WA clubs. Maybe Tassie should have a team. Maybe NT isn’t economically viable in spite of the potential to capture the area and population. Maybe Northern Queensland is the best market to attack. Maybe there is a real prospect of traction in Western Sydney.

Maybe money doesn’t grow on trees. Maybe unsettling the Victorian market is a death sentence because maybe it isn’t only the supporters of the directly affected clubs that will lose interest or at least passion and maybe sponsors don’t want to be associated with a competition that is on the nose. Maybe a 15% drop in broadcast rights with expansion/contraction costs leaves all clubs at risk.

I reckon the first thing that should be done is for the ACCC to demand the AFL Commission change the name to the Maybe Football League so it is not quite so misleading when it releases plans for the future direction, so that the punters know it is guesswork and the principle is say it often enough and people accept it as fact.

I am not against expansion but how so many people accept things like Western Sydney without anything more than the AFL’s hope has me mystified.

 

[Memories]

It amazes me how people miss these simple facts.

Talk to the sponsors of most non-Victorian teams and they will tell you their focus is the Victorian market more so than the local market.

Your last point is the bottom line in this argument - unless new teams are going to bring greater TV share, greater attendances and greater support than existing teams, replacing them simply to have an even geographic spread is moronic.

Are you kidding me? Perth has what, 1.6 million people (actually more since the southern suburbs aren't included in this) and Melbourne has 3.9 million people. Perth is served by 2 AFL teams, Melbourne is served by 9.

3.9 / 9 = 430K
1.6 / 2 = 800K

Why would Melbourne be any less represented in the AFL with 6 teams? 6 teams would easily saturate the market. The other factor is you have bigger stadiums to fill, you should be looking at getting 60+k to each game between 2 Melbourne teams and you can only do this with a reduction in teams or more population growth. Since you aren't going to double Melbournes population within the next 10 years there is only one solution.

And don't even bring up "more afl supporters per capita" or whatever. You cannot prove that and WA is extremely passionate about aussie rules football.

 

[Speck]

I'm speaking from a smaller Victorian clubs point of view here.

I absolutely hate people saying cut the lesser teams. Why? Imagine your club being relegated to the VFL. Would you be shattered? I know I would. I doubt I could look at the AFL the same way again. It may be hard to imagine and understand for any supporters who don't follow Melbourne/Bulldogs/North/St Kilda but put yourself in their shoes then look at it.

 

[Memories]

I'm speaking from a smaller Victorian clubs point of view here.

I absolutely hate people saying cut the lesser teams. Why? Imagine your club being relegated to the VFL. Would you be shattered? I know I would. I doubt I could look at the AFL the same way again. It may be hard to imagine and understand for any supporters who don't follow Melbourne/Bulldogs/North/St Kilda but put yourself in their shoes then look at it.

Harden up. It isn't the VFL anymore and as such the over representation of victoria in the AFL is a joke. If you like AFL you will simply support another team in the AFL and your old team in the VFL.

Until the AFL gets its roots out of Victoria it will never be Australia's game. So stop being selfish and take one for the team that is Australia, otherwise question marks over your love of the game and australia will appear.

 

[JeffDunne]

6 teams would easily saturate the market.

Say what?

You reckon cutting 4 Melbourne teams would result in a market that's still saturated?

You're a funny bloke.

Personally I wouldn't have a problem with more teams in WA & SA but that's not going to happen. Can we at least keep the topic real?

 

[Memories]

Say what?

You reckon cutting 4 Melbourne teams would result in a market that's still saturated?

You're a funny bloke.

Personally I wouldn't have a problem with more teams in WA & SA but that's not going to happen. Can we at least keep the topic real?

So you're a victorian who says Geelong is in Melbourne now? There are 10 teams in Victoria, 9 in Melbourne. Did you just switch to AFL from soccer this year or?

 

[ozasismick]

Harden up. It isn't the VFL anymore and as such the over representation of victoria in the AFL is a joke. If you like AFL you will simply support another team in the AFL and your old team in the VFL.

Until the AFL gets its roots out of Victoria it will never be Australia's game. So stop being selfish and take one for the team that is Australia, otherwise question marks over your love of the game and australia will appear.

If it were my team, nope. I'd more than likely support another sport more pasionately.

 

[Memories]

If it were my team, nope. I'd more than likely support another sport more pasionately.

Maybe, maybe not. AFL is the best sport to watch in my opinion, even if your team gets burned you will be back in a few years. Nothing compares.

 

[JeffDunne]

Fremantle supporters probably don't see the big deal in changing allegiances.

The vast majority of the support base has done it once already.

Wouldn't happen in Vic with established teams. In fact some of the teams left would probably more likely lose than gain support if 3-4 teams were axed such would be the backlash.

But hey, if you'd been following the game more than 5 minutes you'd already know all about Victorian football culture.

 

[ozasismick]

Maybe, maybe not. AFL is the best sport to watch in my opinion, even if your team gets burned you will be back in a few years. Nothing compares.

I'll clarify that comment, I'd watch it yes.., but I wouldn't be emotionally involved in any actual result and certainly would never bring myself to buy a membership for another club. So in the long run, the AFL or it's clubs wouldn't be making as much money off me, the footy fan, as they would if I had a team.

AFL Can bring in all the rule changes etc to alienate footy followers, but if you want to alienate them in one fowl swoop, with maybe some returning, but I still think alot of them not, yes get rid of 4 teams.

 

[Pykie]

Maybe, maybe not. AFL is the best sport to watch in my opinion, even if your team gets burned you will be back in a few years. Nothing compares.

The fact you support a franchise team just shows through.

Most supporters have been following the same teams for generations, I know the notion of loyalty and passion doesn't sit well with a supporter of a club only a decade old.



AFL best sport in the world or not, I would cease to watch it.

Harden up. It isn't the VFL anymore and as such the over representation of victoria in the AFL is a joke. If you like AFL you will simply support another team in the AFL and your old team in the VFL.

It may not be the VFL, but the power still resides in Melbourne, as long as we represent the majority of the TV rights, advertising, sponsorship and gate receipts $$$, you may as well get used the idea of it being Melbourne-central.


Besides, you will find that 90% of the Victorian sides will vote to keep all the existing ones, they dont want another Fitzroy.

 

[Memories]

I'll clarify that comment, I'd watch it yes.., but I wouldn't be emotionally involved in any actual result and certainly would never bring myself to buy a membership for another club. So in the long run, the AFL or it's clubs wouldn't be making as much money off me, the footy fan, as they would if I had a team.

AFL Can bring in all the rule changes etc to alienate footy followers, but if you want to alienate them in one fowl swoop, with maybe some returning, but I still think alot of them not, yes get rid of 4 teams.

The key thing is though, do the supporters who drop off in Melbourne equal the amount of new supporters the 6 clubs left would get? Every population growth would be spread over 6 teams instead of 9, so in a few years it wouldn't matter if you and all the others gave up giving money or not.

I also don't think you would stop going to all games at the ground as it is a spectacle in itself, something to do. Whether you watch it on TV or at the ground you would still be supporting the league. Melbourne only needs to lose 3 teams also to bring the competition back down to 16.

In essence there will be 7 Vic teams, 2 WA teams, 2 SA teams, 2 NSW teams, 2 queensland teams and 1 Tasmanian team.

Even though that is still Vic centric it is a lot better than it currently is. In a decade if the current system kept up all Melbourne teams are going to be far worse off than clubs which have one million+ possible supporter bases to draw from compared to 400K. Whether we cut the Melbourne teams off now or they fold due to being unable to compete is no different. Cutting the cancer off first will help the remaining Victorian teams.

 

[Memories]

The fact you support a franchise team just shows through.

Most supporters have been following the same teams for generations, I know the notion of loyalty and passion doesn't sit well with a supporter of a club only a decade old.

Most multi generation supporters followed VFL teams, not AFL teams. Going back to VFL isn't going to hurt considering that's where most of the fun was, right?

AFL best sport in the world or not, I would cease to watch it.

Unlikely, but whatever. How many fans of each club would be like you pretend to be? Say it's 50% that is only a hundred thousand people shoved away from the game. In a few years it will be irrelevant due to population growth.

It may not be the VFL, but the power still resides in Melbourne, as long as we represent the majority of the TV rights, advertising, sponsorship and gate receipts $$$, you may as well get used the idea of it being Melbourne-central.

The "power" only resides in Melbourne due to there being so many melbourne teams. Remove the teams and the power is gone. Remove the emotion from the issue and it is clear so many Melbourne teams is a mistake which needs to be fixed.

Victorians obviously have no sense of reality when it comes to how being a "victorian" sport tarnishes the brand that is AUSTRALIAN rules football.

 

[SmothOperRaider]

We invented the game. You guys wanted to join our league. We'll over saturate whatever we want, and do it in a reasonable time zone to boot.

 

[Memories]

We invented the game. You guys wanted to join our league.

Haha that's exactly how it went down... you poor Victorians (literally).

 

[SmothOperRaider]

They have a Western Australia now?

 

[madmug]

We invented the game. You guys wanted to join our league. We'll over saturate whatever we want, and do it in a reasonable time zone to boot.

Yes, & during the late 1980's the Vic FL was effectively bankrupt buddy, They started the Afl & relied on interstate money from new teams & now the current massive TV rights come about because it is almost a national competition with a national TV audience. It seems U selfish Victorians havent realised that too many of your old suburban clubs cant cut it at the national level. The salary cap, draft & AFL hand outs amount to Victorian social welfare. The thugby league was nearly wrecked due to the selfish Sydney clubs. It seems the selfish Vics are happy to do the same. Thats about the sum of it mate! Being in Tassie I know the damage Demitriou & you Vics have done

 

[Edward Teach]

No need for mergers/club axing etc. Simply install relegation. Bottom two in AFL (or Premier league) drop down and winner and runner up of the Leagues Championships (winners of SANFL, WAFL, QFL etc) move up. Make PSD a straight lottery.

This method means:

No tanking, no same boring scrubber clubs - spending entire season playing for draft picks while on 5 year plans designed to keep Coaches in jobs.
Perennial weak clubs no longer have a license to print money - when other clubs/areas in Australia deserve a crack at the AFL moneypot.
Players trying to get into AFL can then be lured or happy to play in strong SANFL, VFL or WAFL clubs with the hope of getting into AFL.
Would give the AFL the shakeup it needs - so much of AFL is simply about the draft - who gives a f about that?
Other WA, SA and Vic clubs that run a bloody good ship and maybe were unlucky to not be in AFL can have their turn.
Boutique stadiums can be used if needed initially.

 

[grayham]

The fact you support a franchise team just shows through.

Most supporters have been following the same teams for generations, I know the notion of loyalty and passion doesn't sit well with a supporter of a club only a decade old.



AFL best sport in the world or not, I would cease to watch it.

Thats either BS, or someone will replace you to watch it.

Was their a big drop in attendences/memberships when Fitzroy merged ?
No.
In fact Melbourne attendences/memberships have increased since then.

You may be lost (although most North people will drift back over years), but you are no more important than a Western Sydney, or Tasmanian who will be gained.

 

[Memories]

Thats either BS, or someone will replace you to watch it.

Was their a big drop in attendences/memberships when Fitzroy merged ?
No.
In fact Melbourne attendences/memberships have increased since then.

You may be lost (although most North people will drift back over years), but you are no more important than a Western Sydney, or Tasmanian who will be gained.

Spot on, all these emotional and biased victorians are blind to their lunacy. If they love the VFL so much send 3+ teams back to it. I'd rather a Tasmanian, Western Sydney, Northern Territory or Queensland based team compared to keeping these melbourne teams afloat. Most of the crying about the expansion teams is from melbournites because they realize slowly but surely their power base is being eroded.

 

[zero]

The Dockers might have half a state, but seems that most don't become members or go to games. Don't be surprised if in the next couple of unsuccessful years for both of your clubs, you are merged.

WA getting a third club and essendon merging with the roos are both far more likely outcomes than the dockers and eagles merging

 

[hcd199]

Spot on, all these emotional and biased victorians are blind to their lunacy. If they love the VFL so much send 3+ teams back to it.

Obviously you're being a bit ignorant here - the VFL in Victoria is not the VFL that was there in 1989, which became the AFL. You can't "send teams back to the VFL" - they never left it!

I'd rather a Tasmanian, Western Sydney, Northern Territory or Queensland based team compared to keeping these melbourne teams afloat.

Oh, I'd love a Tassie team too - I'm Tasmanian! But I've seen the damage caused from removing clubs, and it should never be forced upon any supporter - Melbourne or not.

[/quote] Most of the crying about the expansion teams is from melbournites because they realize slowly but surely their power base is being eroded.[/quote]

No, most of the "crying about expansion" is from Melbourne because that's where football has the strongest following.

 

[McCrann]

Harden up. It isn't the VFL anymore and as such the over representation of victoria in the AFL is a joke. If you like AFL you will simply support another team in the AFL and your old team in the VFL.

Until the AFL gets its roots out of Victoria it will never be Australia's game. So stop being selfish and take one for the team that is Australia, otherwise question marks over your love of the game and australia will appear.

What a load of tosh.

Eliminate 4 teams and you immediately eliminate 150,000 members of football clubs who will quite possibly be lost to the game. Not to mention their extended families and supporters of other clubs who would probably boycott the AFL.

Why on Earth would you do that? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face?

Over the last 30 years we have seen two clubs go by the wayside (and in fact be merged/relocated interstate).

As painful as that is, its far preferable than simply making a decision in AFL house. You're right, 10 teams in Melbourne and surrounds is unsustainable. By 2015 I'd expect another of those teams would have relocated.

It will be painful, but at the end of the day there will simply be no other choice - that at least other fans can accept.

When you consider that Fitzroy had around 6,000 members in 1996 - its last year, and basically every club these days has 25,000+ - you can see that the magnitudes these decisions will have has changed substantially.

 

[McCrann]

The key thing is though, do the supporters who drop off in Melbourne equal the amount of new supporters the 6 clubs left would get? Every population growth would be spread over 6 teams instead of 9, so in a few years it wouldn't matter if you and all the others gave up giving money or not.

I also don't think you would stop going to all games at the ground as it is a spectacle in itself, something to do. Whether you watch it on TV or at the ground you would still be supporting the league. Melbourne only needs to lose 3 teams also to bring the competition back down to 16.

In essence there will be 7 Vic teams, 2 WA teams, 2 SA teams, 2 NSW teams, 2 queensland teams and 1 Tasmanian team.

Even though that is still Vic centric it is a lot better than it currently is. In a decade if the current system kept up all Melbourne teams are going to be far worse off than clubs which have one million+ possible supporter bases to draw from compared to 400K. Whether we cut the Melbourne teams off now or they fold due to being unable to compete is no different. Cutting the cancer off first will help the remaining Victorian teams.

Whoever said 16 teams was the perfect number anyway?

What's wrong with 18?

What's wrong with 20 split into 4 Divisions of 5?

5 WA/SA
5 QLD/NSW
5 TAS/VIC
5 VIC

Seems perfect to me, and you'll even have VIC teams falling to under 50% of the total. Much better to do it through overall growth of the game than hacking and chopping it to pieces.