Opinion Expectations for 2014?

[Schulzenfest]

The thing about next season is that we'll have to improve onfield quite a bit just to maintain our current W/L record, let alone surpass it. We won't have a soft draw, we probably won't have the charmed injury run we had this year (although if anybody can back that up, it's Burgess) and we won't be able to take teams by surprise anymore. A 12-13 win season next year will be a lot harder to achieve than our 12-13 win season this year.

 

[Janus]

Bet365 has a more pure ranking system, because I doubt it's been affected by people actually putting money on yet:

$5.00 - Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn
$6.00 - Sydney
$15.00 - Collingwood, Richmond
$17.00 - North Melbourne
$21.00 - Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon, Port Adelaide, West Coast
$41.00 - Brisbane
$67.00 - Gold Coast
$81.00 - Western Bulldogs
$251.00 - Melbourne, St. Kilda
$501.00 - Greater Western Sydney

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

Not that it means anything, we aren't too popular with the punters...

2014 Premiership Market with the TAB

$4.50 - Hawthorn
$6.00 - Geelong, Fremantle
$7.50 - Sydney
$11.00 - Collingwood, Richmond, North Melbourne
$17.00 - Carlton
$21.00 - Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon
$26.00 - Port Adelaide
$51.00 - Gold Coast, Brisbane
$81.00 - Western Bulldogs
$251.00 - St Kilda
$501.00 - GWS, Melbourne

I mean I am a bit concerned about a potential let down next year (though thats just my pessimistic nature!), but some of those teams ahead of us... lol.

Highlighted what i laughed at.

God knows how those teams got better odds then us.

 

[finbarr]

Collingwood is a team in some turmoil at the moment. Bucks is trying to change the party boy culture and consequently has a number of key players hating him. Whether or not they're a slider in 2014 will come down to how well they're able to put these differences to one side and get on with the job. They're not a happy club at the moment.

 

[Natman]

Highlighted what i laughed at.

God knows how those teams got better odds then us.

Because they are done by people who are unbiased and have money at stake.

 

[Dobie G]

North were doing a lot right, just couldn't finish off enough games to win and make the finals. They deserve to be fairly short odds for the premiership next year. The 'surprise' packet for 2014 could be the doggies, well coached and are far better than $81 suggests.
Port with Burgo going 100% with the players this preseason ought to come close to a top 4 finish.

 

[Peck]

The thing about next season is that we'll have to improve onfield quite a bit just to maintain our current W/L record, let alone surpass it. We won't have a soft draw, we probably won't have the charmed injury run we had this year (although if anybody can back that up, it's Burgess) and we won't be able to take teams by surprise anymore. A 12-13 win season next year will be a lot harder to achieve than our 12-13 win season this year.

Very good post.

I think the club will aim to finish top 1 though. Yes it will be ridiculously hard, but its always the aim (this past year was a bit different because we were so garbage before now). I think anything outside top 6 is a failure, while top 4 is a pass.

I'm not sure what to expect just yet, I think I will wait to see how active we are at the trade table, and how many injuries we have by the end of the preseason. We probably need a similar run with injuries to be a real shot, as do most teams.

 

[stanmack]

Draw will be tougher, opponents will be better prepared, injuries could take a toll but we will be fitter and stronger, we also will be better prepared, young players will improve, we have a very good coach. I am really looking forward to next year.

 

[missionpossible]

the draw being tougher is a bit of a falicy. basically you play everyone once (17 games) and in the other five games you play 3 teams from your section of the ladder and 2 from the other.

So if you finish bottom 9 you playe 3 teams from the bottom 9 and 2 from the top 9 in your 5 extra games and the opposited for a top 9 team. Logic says because the top 9 team has to play 3 top 9 teams twice they have a harder draw, this is only half of the story

if you finish top 9 in your 17 normal games you play 8 top 9 teams and 9 bottom 9 teams, so you end up playing 11 top 9 teams and 11 bottom 9 teams
If you finish bottom 9 in your 17 normal games you play 9 top teams and 8 bottom 9 teams, so you also end up playing 11 top 9 teams and 11 bottom 9 teams.

the tough part only comes if you draw top 4 teams twice, or easy draw if you get the bottome 4 teams twice.

 

[blaargh]

Collingwood is a team in some turmoil at the moment. Bucks is trying to change the party boy culture and consequently has a number of key players hating him. Whether or not they're a slider in 2014 will come down to how well they're able to put these differences to one side and get on with the job. They're not a happy club at the moment.

Yep, as I said in another thread I saw their training once this year and it was barely intense enough to qualify. Shit skills, shit attitude.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

I am going to say this...and this is just a gut feel prediction....



But think westhoff will explode next year...backing him from brownlow at the start of the season

 

[Andre]

Looks like it didn't take long for so called respect earned to disappear. 2014 Sliders and Bolters thread on the main board (yeah, yeah I know the main board is a slightly better masked Bay 13 at times) has a recurring theme of Port sliding.

 

[faquito]

North were doing a lot right, just couldn't finish off enough games to win and make the finals. They deserve to be fairly short odds for the premiership next year. The 'surprise' packet for 2014 could be the doggies, well coached and are far better than $81 suggests.
Port with Burgo going 100% with the players this preseason ought to come close to a top 4 finish.

I'm also backing the doggies to be a bit mover in 2014. They are building from the inside out, just need a decent forward (Crameri + a developing Stringer) and an extra year or two in their outside players (McCrae mainly).

The only thing I see with them staying low on the ladder is if Minson has a non-AA year like Sam Jacobs' fall from grace.

 

[bomberclifford]

Looks like it didn't take long for so called respect earned to disappear. 2014 Sliders and Bolters thread on the main board (yeah, yeah I know the main board is a slightly better masked Bay 13 at times) has a recurring theme of Port sliding.

Crows and Roos supporters flooding it no doubt.

 

[Andre]

Crows and Roos supporters flooding it no doubt.

And Carlton and Richmond fans thinking they are monties to go up after a good year, because we are going down because we play more top 6 teams then this year. Yet they are somehow going to unaffected by this?

 

[Janus]

People think we are going to drop because they are under the false assumption that our players overachieved and that was the best they can play. It also is a case of hoping that all our first round draft picks take a bit longer to come on so we give sides like Richmond, Adelaide and North the chance to win a flag before the expansion sides come along.

Wait until next year. Look at the improvement in players like O'Shea this year, and extrapolate that over the entire list. Another preseason focused on skills and fitness - the endeavor is there, now it's time to sharpen up. Boak, Harlett, Gray, Moore, Pittard, Trengove, Carlile, Redden, Butcher and Neade all have more levels to go in terms of development. If we get Polec...even better.

The changing of the guard happens next year. And when it happens, people will look at Port and question the "top up" model that Sydney and Geelong have used, purely because endeavor and development will never beat endeavor, development and natural talent.

That being said, I'm not opposed to one final year of sinking down to the bottom four/five thanks to a tougher draw, collecting a swag of nice KPP, then shooting up to top four in 2015. Do that, and we can replicate Geelong and have a sustained run at the top.

 

[Forzaport]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Carlton, North and Richmond supporters all thinking they can jump us - they all beat us this year. Adelaide fans on the other hand just have a misguided sense of entitlement; they're easily seduced into believing that propaganda (HYPE) + more members = better ladder position than Port.

 

[Port01]

The draw being harder question is overrated.
The AFL has all teams play each other, and the last 5 has always been about revenue. Next year they have decided to add some guidelines about how they maximise revenue. We will still sit on the lower drawing scale. Crows+Sydney+Geelong+Brisbane+Bulldogs is my guess!

 

[Janus]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Carlton, North and Richmond supporters all thinking they can jump us - they all beat us this year. Adelaide fans on the other hand just have a misguided sense of entitlement; they're easily seduced into believing that propaganda (HYPE) + more members = better ladder position than Port.

Carlton and North would want to play a lot better than what they did - just because Carlton beat us by 1 point in a dead rubber game when we had an eye on Collingwood next week doesn't mean they are assured of doing so next year. And North - I'm looking forward to playing them over here, as I'm sure the rest of our side is as well. Preferably without McInerney or whatever that campaigners name is umpiring.

 

[raman]

Looks like it didn't take long for so called respect earned to disappear. 2014 Sliders and Bolters thread on the main board (yeah, yeah I know the main board is a slightly better masked Bay 13 at times) has a recurring theme of Port sliding.

Fine by me.

 

[Phhht]

The 'surprise' packet for 2014 could be the doggies, well coached and are far better than $81 suggests..

I'm also backing the doggies to be a bit mover in 2014. They are building from the inside out, just need a decent forward (Crameri + a developing Stringer) and an extra year or two in their outside players (McCrae mainly).

The only thing I see with them staying low on the ladder is if Minson has a non-AA year like Sam Jacobs' fall from grace.

After profiting from the Port to win more than 5.5 games this year, I will be keeping a keen eye out for any type of similar bulldogs 'value' bets that might float around.
Might also keep a keen eye on Melb as I think their list is better than the crap they have shown. They would also be seen in a similar light to us circa late 2012. Roos may skew the betting odds though.

 

[Andre]

The draw being harder question is overrated.
The AFL has all teams play each other, and the last 5 has always been about revenue. Next year they have decided to add some guidelines about how they maximise revenue. We will still sit on the lower drawing scale. Crows+Sydney+Geelong+Brisbane+Bulldogs is my guess!

The AFL will be happy to give us big clubs for the first year at AO. Crows obvious. Hawks I'm 90% sure we'll get home and then as one of their Tassie games.

However the desire to ensure AO doesn't become a money drain like AAMI will be tempered by the Vlad barely being able to disguise his pro-VFL agenda. And we are a small club. To him that means - give them enough so they aren't requiring a handout, but make sure they aren't given any even draw with a fair chance of top 4 and a subsequent real shot at the flag. This means given we beat Sydney and just got pipped by Geelong (and who have now ditched the biggest reason we didn't make the prelim. in Chapman) just about makes Fremantle a certain lock for the other top 6 side we play twice. And given we lost to the Bulldogs they are a good chance for a double up for us.

So my guess is our double 5 are:
Crows
Hawks
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Bulldogs

 

[Concussion]

I am a little confused about the draw next year. Is it deemed that we finished 5th or (effectively*) 8th when it come to the new fixture.
I am thinking Essendon should not get any favours from the draw and should be seen as finishing 7th, which mean we are 8th and Carlton 9th.
Can anyone shine some light on this a it has some impact on who we play twice next year.

 

[t0mmO]

I've been thinking the same thing. Do Essendon get an easier draw than they would have gotten since they were sent out of the 8, or are they considered to be 7th in terms of the fixture?

 

[faquito]

I've been thinking the same thing. Do Essendon get an easier draw than they would have gotten since they were sent out of the 8, or are they considered to be 7th in terms of the fixture?

I'm pretty sure there are 3 brackets 1-6, 7-12, 13-18. So it doesn't matter whether they finished 7th or 9th.