Falconista
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- Dec 31, 2019
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- WPFC; WA; Western Bears; GumbiesFFC
Four rounds remain in season 38 with all thirteen teams remaining a live chance of finals. Who makes it? Let's numberwang.
THE RUN HOME BY 'SPRINT SQORE'
The methodology of Sprint Sqore: adding up the ladder positions of each teams opponents to come and dividing it by the number of matches they have left. For example if a team plays 2nd, 3rd and 7th on the way home- (2+3+7)/4= 3.00 . A higher score equals an easier run home.
GUMBIES FFC 10.66, no top-8 opponents to come
The double blues have the easiest run home under this model with three opponents currently sitting outside the eight. One more win would lock in an astonishing ninth straight finals campaign.
LAS VEGAS BEARS 10.00, 2 top-8 opponents to come
It may have been a struggle of a season for the Bears so far, but they have a handy run in. They play the bottom-two teams on the ladder and the bottom-two teams in the eight meaning all their games are the proverbial 'eight-point games'.
GOLD CITY ROYALS 9.33, 1 top-8 opponent to come
It's difficult to see the Royals missing finals from here. The Dragons clash in round 16 looks a crucial match in deciding the order of the eight.
OPHIDIAN OLD BOYS 9.00, 1 top-8 opponent to come
The reigning premiers are stubbornly holding onto a spot in the lower part of the eight, their draw nullifying a poor percentage. Winning the Wonders match this week is crucial as they are the other team in the vicinity with a draw washed into their premiership point total.
DRAGONS FFC 8.50, 1 top-8 opponent to come
The Dragons have a very good next three weeks against opponents below them on the ladder. Winning either or both of their next two matches will have the double effect of shoring up a spot in the eight and handicapping that opponents chance of displacing them.
MOUNT BULLER DEMONS 8.33, 2 top-8 opponents to come
The Dees percentage from their early season form is most useful. The Furies clash in round fifteen shapes as an important clash in the context of top-four.
BAGHDAD BOMBERS 7.50, 2 top-8 opponents to come
The Bombers will not make finals unless they win all four of their remaining fixtures. They can however jump off the bottom of the ladder and could well do so if they win three of their remaining four fixtures.
CONEY ISLAND WARRIORS 7.00, 2 top-8 opponents to come
The Warriors draw is a challenging one on paper. Matches against the Furies and Hawks could prove very costly if they are lost due to the tightness of the top-seven teams. The good news for the Coney Islanders is there is no Dragons match, before finals at least!
WEST COAST WONDERS 6.00, 2 top-8 opponents to come
The Wonders are coming from a long way back but have the Bears and Old Boys on their run in which if won, will assist their path to Qeptember. That won't do though, they will need to also take a win against the Royals or the Dees.
ROYS FFC 6.00, 3 top-8 opponents to come
If the Roys make finals, they will have earnt it with three top-eight teams to come. A loss to the Dragons this week will exacerbate the task with a fortnight of top-four matchups to follow.
EAST SIDE HAWKS 5.67, 2 top-8 opponents to come
The Hawks have a challenging run home but their destiny is entirely in their hands. Clashes with the Furies and Warriors either side of a bye will determine if the Hawks can take a double chance into finals, or maybe miss altogether (although their current percentage may serve them well).
FIGHTING FURIES 4.33, 3 top-8 opponents to come
The fifth-placed Furies have three top-six teams between now and the conclusion of the home and away season.They are the kingmakers of the top four as their opponents chances would take a huge blow by losing to the similarly placed Furies. Though, with their poor percentage, the Furies are very vulnerable of slipping out of the eight entirely if they lose their last three.
SIN CITY SWAMPRATS 3.67, 3 top-8 opponents to come
Sixth, second and third- these are the mountains last season's runners up have to climb before seasons end. With the Roys, Bears and Wonders having a game in hand on the Swamprats, they've only got a very narrow path to finals. It's doable, but difficult.
THE TEN: THE REMAINING MATCHES WHICH LOOK TO HAVE HUGE LADDER IMPLICATIONS
Round Fifteen -
Dragons FFC v Roys FFC at Ljp86's Lair
Ophidian Old Boys v West Coast Wonders at Spotswood Oval
Round Sixteen -
East Side Hawks v Fighting Furies at The Wally Centre of Excellence
Las Vegas Bears v Dragons FFC at The Stadium in the Sky
Round Seventeen -
Ophidian Old Boys v Las Vegas Bears at Spotswood Oval
Mount Buller Demons v Fighting Furies at The Snow Dome
Round Eighteen - Sunday, 24 November 2024
Mount Buller Demons v Ophidian Old Boys at The Snow Dome
Coney Island Warriors v East Side Hawks at Van Cortlandt Park
Dragons FFC v Gold City Royals at Ljp86's Lair
Las Vegas Bears v West Coast Wonders at The Stadium in the Sky
ALL REMAINING FIXTURES IN PICTORIAL FORM:
Player [TEAM] | Goals (Ave gpm) | Form (most recent first) |
ShaunDuggan [FUR] | 66 (5.08) | 3, 5, x, 6, 5, 6, 4, 3, 2, 7, 8, 5, 3, 9 |
BRAB [OOB] | 61 (4.69) | 7, 3, 4, 3, 6, 6, 4, 2, 6, 8, 1, 10, 1, x |
Tarkyn_24 [ESH] | 61 (4.69) | 13, 2, 3, 5, x, 2, 5, 5, 3, 2, 0, 4, 12, 5 |
TheGoatBaron [ROY] | 52 (4.33) | x, 6, 3, 7, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, x, 4, 6, 4 |
sausageroll [MBD] | 51 (3.92) | 1, 4, 2, 9, 3, 3, x, 1, 7, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5 |
For much of the season it's been a Duggan vs BRAB battle for the Fred Medal but, after his weekend exploits, Tarkyn is now a realistic chance of a fourth Fred Medal. Don't write off TheGoatBaron just yet of making it further interesting with the Bovidae enthusiast having a game in hand on the other contenders, and a good period of form in recent weeks.
