Finals: yeah or nah?

[RJK Tiger]

I posted this on the 9th of July, thought it might be interesting to re-post it with the updates of resul



Cats
"8 Pointers" (1/4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (0/4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (0/5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 0/6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Giants
"8 Pointers" (1/6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (1/3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Tigers
Danger Games (1/3) - Eagles, Hawks, Nth
"8 Pointers" (2) - Saints, Dogs
Underdog Games ( 2) - Demons, Port (Away)


Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(0/4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Swans
"8Pointers (1/6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (1/5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (0/3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)




Based on the above, I would say with zero confidence that 5th -10th will be made up of some order of Geelong, Dogs, Carlton, Richmond, Bombers & Giants - hopefully in that order. Its crazy how much every result swings the end projections on a Ladder Predictor.


For example look at this variant below. This was my "result" of we win both our "8 pointers" & our 2 "Danger Games". The below is made up of a logic that the winning team is based on odds, form etc. It accounts for very little "shock results" & us winning both our 50/50 games - which is against the odds atm.

View attachment 1741347

If however i change the result of the Dogs Vs Giants game to be a "shock" win to the Giants (which is completely feasible for me), the Giants go to 5th & the Dogs drop to 10th. They literally swap spots without affecting any other teams positions. THATS how cut throat all these games are now.

For the teams 5th to 15th, they are basically having their own mini final series for the last 5 weeks of the season. Its going to be wild to see how it all plays out. The Giants are the team who i think might shock people & not only make the 8, but end up with a home final. For all the glory Scott, Ross & even Voss is getting over the resurgence of their teams - it might end up being Kingsley that is the one that really wins the battle. Its a guy like him & Fly that reinforce the notion that no matter how 2023 ends, we need to interview very seriously before hiring. Mini is bringing the same ethos than Dimma & we need to be sure that is definitely the best vision for the next surge

For context - if i could have Mini or Kingsley as our next coach, I would take Kingsley

I'll claim that one too thanks. Not a bad call at all.

If a few of the village idiots here could read over 200 words they might have seen the Giants coming too

 

[Wallaby]

If we win out - we're definitely in. So, if we're good enough, no excuses. All winnable from here.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Reckon we'll win the flag tbh.

 

[Truetiger]

If we win out - we're definitely in. So, if we're good enough, no excuses. All winnable from here.

Doesn’t make our port game look to difficult. Lol

 

[RJK Tiger]

Based on my predictions I still have us finishing 8th - this includes losses to Melb & Port. The swing games are going to act like elimination games from here on in. We just need to win our 2 + nth

 

[TigerImposter]

If anyone can pick the final eight from here then they’re bigger than Ezra Stiles.

 

[BigVic]

Ladder predictor got me this.

 

[Harrison Bergeron]

I'll claim that one too thanks. Not a bad call at all.

If a few of the village idiots here could read over 200 words they might have seen the Giants coming too

Yeah you're a real genius - as far as you know.

 

[smurfin]

Here's my prediction:
With us losing against Melbourne and Port.
We absolutely must win against Bulldogs or else we're done.
Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong all just need one "upset" win to jump ahead of us. If two of them manage that, we are done.

 

[Al Heimer]

Here's my prediction:
With us losing against Melbourne and Port.
We absolutely must win against Bulldogs or else we're done.
Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong all just need one "upset" win to jump ahead of us. If two of them manage that, we are done.

View attachment 1759454

This one looks accurate to me.

On SM-A426B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Truetiger]

Here's my prediction:
With us losing against Melbourne and Port.
We absolutely must win against Bulldogs or else we're done.
Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong all just need one "upset" win to jump ahead of us. If two of them manage that, we are done.

View attachment 1759454

Makes today a really big game. Win vs Melbourne so important.

 

[smurfin]

Makes today a really big game. Win vs Melbourne so important.

If we win against Melbourne it gives us an extra buffer.
Two of Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong would need 2 "upset wins" plus GWS would need an "upset" win. (Or "upset" loss to us counts as an "upset" win to everyone else).

 

[tigs2010]

Makes today a really big game. Win vs Melbourne so important.

Yep 3 will get us in. Rather be going for 2/4 from next week than 3/4.

 

[smurfin]

A good round for us so far:

Geelong losing is excellent - good chance of us finishing above them
Swans beating Bombers was excellent - Neither team likely to catch us now, but a Bombers win would have made them close.

Bulldogs losing to GWS - a draw would have been the absolute worst result for us. Either way not too fussed, but now makes us winning against Bulldogs crucial to stay ahead of them.

Carlton beating Pies annoying - but they'd probably finish above us regardless.
Crows over Port - bit annoying - puts Crows in contention with us and a real danger of getting above us.

 

[tora tora tora]

Saints smashing Hawks in the first Qtr. I thought Hawks would win this one.

 

[RJK Tiger]

My ladder predictor. This is us winning Dogs, Saints, Roo's only

 

[banana_bus]

My ladder predictor. This is us winning Dogs, Saints, Roo's only

How many frees will Curnow get if this happens Groupie_

 

[SavDog23]

I will view this season as a success if we win the flag or knock carlton and collingwood out of finals in consecutive weeks.

 

[richoplzbreed]

Saints smashing Hawks in the first Qtr. I thought Hawks would win this one.

Hawks are putrid and were repeatedly accused of tanking for the number 1 pick. North's and WCE's patheticness was even more inferior so their plans were scuttled. Saints are also pretty horrid last couple months. People collectively got amnesia after 3/4 time last week. I work with that many Hawks fans it's ridiculous and majority were convinced they deliberately took the foot off the pedal last week.

 

[bradydaw91]

Yesterday's result doesn't really change the permutations too much as most of us pencilled in the L before the game. The winner of Friday's dogs vs tigers will play finals.

 

[TigerImposter]

Yesterday's result doesn't really change the permutations too much as most of us pencilled in the L before the game. The winner of Friday's dogs vs tigers will play finals.

Agree

 

[sante]

This round just proves that ladder predictors are ridiculous. There will be more upsets to come. But I suspect the doggies will end our season on Friday

 

[Groupie_]

Yesterday's result doesn't really change the permutations too much as most of us pencilled in the L before the game. The winner of Friday's dogs vs tigers will play finals.

we are not beating the dogs at shitihad with the umpiring they cop

 

[Groupie_]

This round just proves that ladder predictors are ridiculous. There will be more upsets to come. But I suspect the umps will end our season on Friday

fixed

 

[STRONGandBALD]

My ladder predictor. This is us winning Dogs, Saints, Roo's only

Cats could quite easily only win 1 more game for the season so we may only need 2 wins to get in.