Finals: yeah or nah?

[Truetiger]

What are these crazy outcomes you speak off. One game out after this round and we need crazy outcomes to make it. My god you have over thunk it.

Nth winning today would be good lol

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Nth winning today would be good lol

Yeah not happening, pressure is all four teams currently 5-8. They need to keep winning because the chasing pack is large and just like that at 6pm today one of essendon or adelaide will be out of the eight.

 

[banana_bus]

Aints, Bummers and Cows all vulnerable.

Will know more about the Dogs next 3 weeks. We may be above them in a fortnight or they may be locked in the 8.

 

[Truetiger]

Aints, Bummers and Cows all vulnerable.

Will know more about the Dogs next 3 weeks. We may be above them in a fortnight or they may be locked in the 8.

Swans away, Essendon and Gws their next 3 interesting

 

[TigerImposter]

Aints, Bummers and Cows all vulnerable.

Will know more about the Dogs next 3 weeks. We may be above them in a fortnight or they may be locked in the 8.

Crows are a good team . Umpires robbed them against Collingwood.

 

[Not Important]

still in the mix i reckon. but we're a fair way off the top 3 so doubt we'll have much impact.

 

[banana_bus]

still in the mix i reckon. but we're a fair way off the top 3 so doubt we'll have much impact.

This is what I thought watching us the last two Thursdays. We aren't winning the flag.

 

[Drunken Wookie]

Reckon too many teams in the finals mix are playing each other in the final rounds for us to realistically have a sniff. We needed the draw to pit these teams against bottom four/top four teams and for them to get smacked or suffer upset losses. Basically we need a Bradbury run or to win nearly every game.

 

[RJK Tiger]

What are these crazy outcomes you speak off. One game out after this round and we need crazy outcomes to make it. My god you have over thunk it.

Yeah. do the math, lol

After the top 4, There are 11 teams between 36 - 26 points. We are dead smack in the middle of that pack, in TWELTH spot, with 30 points and the WORST percentage

You DO realise that the other teams get to play games and win etc as well. As we sit in 12th with only 7 games to go, our future is not really in our hands, we will rely on other teams failing to make it. ( we will be 12th after Freo Vs Carlton)

lol, its like you jokes don't realise there are other teams sometimes. Even after our win this week, after today we will be down to 12th. For us to make the finals after Dimma quit, it will mean the team going 10 out of 13, which would mean we are the 2nd best team overall for the final 13 weeks of the season.
I think people are massively overrating our performances. I don't think for a second we are a top 4 team - so any results that would rely on us being one to make the finals, makes me quite suspicious.

I've been really impressed with how we have turned it around, but i don't think this team is a top 4 quality side. If we were, we would be able to win a game occasionally by more than 1 or 2 goals. I think finals is more unlikely than likely. As it stands we are on target to be the first team to go 10/13 and still have a percentage under 100. as we only ever win by >10pts, but then lose by 80pts to the Lions ( a top 4 team).

The tale is in the tape. At this point we are playing more for pride imo. If we finish bottom 4 the Hopper trade is a disaster. If we can finish around 10-7th, then history will only show it to be a " bad trade", not a "Total Disaster". We have done a brilliant job in saving our pride after the off-season moves, but our percentage tells you where we sit. Oh, and the ladder. 12th.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Reckon too many teams in the finals mix are playing each other in the final rounds for us to realistically have a sniff. We needed the draw to pit these teams against bottom four/top four teams and for them to get smacked or suffer upset losses. Basically we need a Bradbury run or to win nearly every game.

This. over half the league is fighting for 4 spots. Every team EXCEPT 3, thinks they can still make it currently, we are not unique

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Altered ladder with king out for Saints.
Has us finishing 6th
Crows
Dees
Port(If No Lynch)

 

[RJK Tiger]

Altered ladder with king out for Saints.
Has us finishing 6th
Crows
Dees
Port(If No Lynch)

Cool story.

What reasoning do you have us beating Melbourne? they are clearly better than us and have completely had our number since the won the flag in 2021.

I do admit tho, ladder predictors are fun

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

I went to the stk/melb game last night, if people are shitting bricks over these two teams then they'll be the same ones shitting bricks next sunday.

Tell me again why we aren't winning 6 out of 8.

We are not beating Port in Adelaide
Then you have 3 top 8 teams in Bulldogs , Melbourne & St Kilda

We are not winning all 3 of these games
games against St Kilda & Doggies are now effectively 8 point games

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Yeah. do the math, lol

After the top 4, There are 11 teams between 36 - 26 points. We are dead smack in the middle of that pack, in TWELTH spot, with 30 points and the WORST percentage

You DO realise that the other teams get to play games and win etc as well. As we sit in 12th with only 7 games to go, our future is not really in our hands, we will rely on other teams failing to make it. ( we will be 12th after Freo Vs Carlton)

lol, its like you jokes don't realise there are other teams sometimes. Even after our win this week, after today we will be down to 12th. For us to make the finals after Dimma quit, it will mean the team going 10 out of 13, which would mean we are the 2nd best team overall for the final 13 weeks of the season.
I think people are massively overrating our performances. I don't think for a second we are a top 4 team - so any results that would rely on us being one to make the finals, makes me quite suspicious.

I've been really impressed with how we have turned it around, but i don't think this team is a top 4 quality side. If we were, we would be able to win a game occasionally by more than 1 or 2 goals. I think finals is more unlikely than likely. As it stands we are on target to be the first team to go 10/13 and still have a percentage under 100. as we only ever win by >10pts, but then lose by 80pts to the Lions ( a top 4 team).

The tale is in the tape. At this point we are playing more for pride imo. If we finish bottom 4 the Hopper trade is a disaster. If we can finish around 10-7th, then history will only show it to be a " bad trade", not a "Total Disaster". We have done a brilliant job in saving our pride after the off-season moves, but our percentage tells you where we sit. Oh, and the ladder. 12th.

My math has us in 8th spot in two weeks time, which then puts it in our hands. So again these crazy things that need to happen. You're thinking too far ahead and over thinking it. I'm on schedule with my predictions.

And i know there are other teams, i calculated them all into my 3 week prediction which had us sitting 12th and 4 points out after this round. next week it's 10th and 2 pts out, week after it's 8th and 2 pts in. At the hawks game i'll see where we actually are and then look one week at a time from there because that's the least head against wall thing you can do. You and the others are looking all the way to the last round and trying to predict 9/9 until then so that's why you're all negative.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

We are not beating Port in Adelaide
Then you have 3 top 8 teams in Bulldogs , Melbourne & St Kilda

We are not winning all 3 of these games
games against St Kilda & Doggies are now effectively 8 point games

Ok if you say so, you go with that line of thinking, i'll just look no further than the hawks game.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Ok if you say so, you go with that line of thinking, i'll just look no further than the hawks game.

LOL what we say doesnt effect the results mate

But you look as far as you like and hey keep hopes high never know

 

[Tiger Toffee]

LOL what we say doesnt effect the results mate

But you look as far as you like and hey keep hopes high never know

But it effects you though, WCE and Hawthorn that's all you should be thinking about. After that round see where we are and then go for it.

In the 18 team era, 12th spot has never been only 6 pts behind 5th spot with 7 games to go. How good is it.

 

[mauricerioli]

Yeah. do the math, lol

After the top 4, There are 11 teams between 36 - 26 points. We are dead smack in the middle of that pack, in TWELTH spot, with 30 points and the WORST percentage

You DO realise that the other teams get to play games and win etc as well. As we sit in 12th with only 7 games to go, our future is not really in our hands, we will rely on other teams failing to make it. ( we will be 12th after Freo Vs Carlton)

lol, its like you jokes don't realise there are other teams sometimes. Even after our win this week, after today we will be down to 12th. For us to make the finals after Dimma quit, it will mean the team going 10 out of 13, which would mean we are the 2nd best team overall for the final 13 weeks of the season.
I think people are massively overrating our performances. I don't think for a second we are a top 4 team - so any results that would rely on us being one to make the finals, makes me quite suspicious.

I've been really impressed with how we have turned it around, but i don't think this team is a top 4 quality side. If we were, we would be able to win a game occasionally by more than 1 or 2 goals. I think finals is more unlikely than likely. As it stands we are on target to be the first team to go 10/13 and still have a percentage under 100. as we only ever win by >10pts, but then lose by 80pts to the Lions ( a top 4 team).

The tale is in the tape. At this point we are playing more for pride imo. If we finish bottom 4 the Hopper trade is a disaster. If we can finish around 10-7th, then history will only show it to be a " bad trade", not a "Total Disaster". We have done a brilliant job in saving our pride after the off-season moves, but our percentage tells you where we sit. Oh, and the ladder. 12th.

All the teams competing for a spot, including us, play each other multiple times and play top 4 teams multiple times.

So there’s plenty of 8 point games.

It’s going to be difficult but there doesn’t have to be lots of crazy results happen……yet.

 

[RJK Tiger]

My math has us in 8th spot in two weeks time, which then puts it in our hands. So again these crazy things that need to happen. You're thinking too far ahead and over thinking it. I'm on schedule with my predictions.

And i know there are other teams, i calculated them all into my 3 week prediction which had us sitting 12th and 4 points out after this round. next week it's 10th and 2 pts out, week after it's 8th and 2 pts in. At the hawks game i'll see where we actually are and then look one week at a time from there because that's the least head against wall thing you can do. You and the others are looking all the way to the last round and trying to predict 9/9 until then so that's why you're all negative.

It pretty much read's like you read through Richmond glasses & thats about it. Sure, the next 2 games we have our definitely "easier", but the games after that get A LOT harder.

The killer for us was having Port away in the final round. I am guessing that by the final round, we will still have around 7-8 teams that are still fighting over 3 spots & we need to hope with all hell that Port are clear, runaway #1 ranked team and decide to rest the F up. The other issue we have is the Dogs playing the Cats. One of those teams will win & definitely make the finals because of it, with a decent chance both still make it over us. There are only really 2 spots left in the top 8 When you account for Port, Pies, Dee's, Lions - but also i think its fair to say 1 of the Saints, Dogs, Crows will definitely finish in that 5th spot based on upcoming fixtures etc.

the reality is though, the ladder predictor has never been more pointless at this point of the season as its just way to even. We literally have 15 teams still believing they might make the finals - too many "eight pointers" in the final 2 months to call. But the reality is we have the worst percentage of all the teams fighting for a spot & even with the draw - that means 3 other teams have the "tie-breaker" on us. Normally by now you have 6-7 teams that are "dead" with mroe than half of those starting to be "motivated" by losing. This year is a very hot kitchen.

To expect us to lose in the final round and still make the finals with the lowest percentage just seems like a lot of "hopefully" going our way & as a Richmond fan, I don't expect things to go "our way.

 

[RJK Tiger]

All the teams competing for a spot, including us, play each other multiple times and play top 4 teams multiple times.

So there’s plenty of 8 point games.

It’s going to be difficult but there doesn’t have to be lots of crazy results happen……yet.

Unfortunately for us, our opponents have more "8 point Games". The reason this sucks for us is, SOMEONE will win those games and get "the 8 points"

We have 2 - Vs Dogs & Saints.

We have 3 "Danger Games" - West Coast, Nth & Hawks

We have 2 "Underdog" games - Dee's & Port


To be honest if we can just win the 3 danger games & even split the "8 pointers", i think that would be a good result for this team and where they were at 12 weeks ago. Winning the ones "we should" has not been something we have been very good at for 3 years, so i would be happy to just see us do that tbh.

If we can win both or 1 of the underdog games and make the finals too, that would be awesome



Just to put it all into context because i am at work and bored and have the time.....


Saints
Danger Games (2)- Nth & Hawks
"8 Pointers" (4) - Cats, Tigers, Blues, Suns
Underdog (1)- Lions (Away)

Dogs
Danger Games (2) - Eagles & Hawks
"8 Pointers" - (5) Tigers, Swans (Away), Bombers, Giants, Cats

Bombers
Danger Games (2) - NTH & Eagles
"8 Pointers" ( 6) - Crows (home) Cats, Dogs, Swans (away), Giants (Away)
Underdog (1) - Pies

Swans
"8Pointers (6) - Dogs (home), Freo (away), Bombers (away) Giants, Suns (Home), Crows (away),
UnderDog (1) - Dee's (Home)

Crows
Danger (1) - Eagles
"8 Pointers"(4) - Bombers (away) Giants (Home), Suns (Home), Swans ( Home)
Underdog (3) - Dee's (away) Port, Lions (away)

Cats
"8 Pointers" (4) - Bombers, Dockers ( Home), Saints, Dogs
Underdog (3) - Lions (away), Port (Home), Pies

Freo
Danger (2)- Eagles, Hawks
" 8 Pointers (3)" blues ( Home), Swans ( Home ), Cats (Away)
Underdog (3) - Pies (away), Lions (home), Port ( Home)

Giants
"8 Pointers" (6) - Crows (away), Suns (Home), Dogs (Away), Swans, Bombers (Home), Carlton
Underdog (1) - Port (Away)

Blues
Danger (1)- Eagles
"8 Pointers" (4)- Dockers (away), Saints, Suns (Away), Giants ( Away)
Underdog (3) - Port (home) Pies, Dee's

Suns
Danger (1) - NTH
"8 Pointers (5) - Saints (Home), Giants (Away), Crows (away), Swans (Away), Blues( home)
Underdog (1) - Lions


The problem with all these teams pretty much having around 60+% "8 pointers" is, someone has to win them. As long as we can win the 3 we SHOULD win & at least split the 2 "8 pointers", i think that is a good effort and should put us in a place where the Hopper trade is no a total disaster. Effectively thats all we are playing for now - to keep face and not make the last off-season seem like something that is going to hold our rebuild back 5 years etc.

 

[Truetiger]

Unfortunately for us, our opponents have more "8 point Games". The reason this sucks for us is, SOMEONE will win those games and get "the 8 points"

We have 2 - Vs Dogs & Saints.

We have 3 "Danger Games" - West Coast, Nth & Hawks

We have 2 "Underdog" games - Dee's & Port


To be honest if we can just win the 3 danger games & even split the "8 pointers", i think that would be a good result for this team and where they were at 12 weeks ago. Winning the ones "we should" has not been something we have been very good at for 3 years, so i would be happy to just see us do that tbh.

If we can win both or 1 of the underdog games and make the finals too, that would be awesome

Surely the Eagles is not a Danger games. lol I get what you mean though. I would not want it to come down to beating port in the final round.

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

How do we have 1 “home” game in the final 4 weeks?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Growapair]

All the teams competing for a spot, including us, play each other multiple times and play top 4 teams multiple times.

So there’s plenty of 8 point games.

It’s going to be difficult but there doesn’t have to be lots of crazy results happen……yet.

Actually, win all 7 and we would be likely to finish Top 4, would only need Melbourne to go 4-3, which is likely if we beat them

If we only lose to Top4 teams and beat Bulldogs and Saints as well as bottom 3 we finish with a home elimination final.

If we only beat bottom 3 and Saints we probably miss out but not definitely

We have three games against the bottom 3 so we could end up with really strong percentage come end of year.

 

[Truetiger]

Actually, win all 7 and we would be likely to finish Top 4, would only need Melbourne to go 4-3, which is likely if we beat them

So we have the double chance to look forward to then

 

[Tiger Toffee]

It pretty much read's like you read through Richmond glasses & thats about it. Sure, the next 2 games we have our definitely "easier", but the games after that get A LOT harder.

The killer for us was having Port away in the final round. I am guessing that by the final round, we will still have around 7-8 teams that are still fighting over 3 spots & we need to hope with all hell that Port are clear, runaway #1 ranked team and decide to rest the F up. The other issue we have is the Dogs playing the Cats. One of those teams will win & definitely make the finals because of it, with a decent chance both still make it over us. There are only really 2 spots left in the top 8 When you account for Port, Pies, Dee's, Lions - but also i think its fair to say 1 of the Saints, Dogs, Crows will definitely finish in that 5th spot based on upcoming fixtures etc.

the reality is though, the ladder predictor has never been more pointless at this point of the season as its just way to even. We literally have 15 teams still believing they might make the finals - too many "eight pointers" in the final 2 months to call. But the reality is we have the worst percentage of all the teams fighting for a spot & even with the draw - that means 3 other teams have the "tie-breaker" on us. Normally by now you have 6-7 teams that are "dead" with mroe than half of those starting to be "motivated" by losing. This year is a very hot kitchen.

To expect us to lose in the final round and still make the finals with the lowest percentage just seems like a lot of "hopefully" going our way & as a Richmond fan, I don't expect things to go "our way.

Again you're looking all the way to the last round, can you tell me who you have tipped in each round and then we'll see after the last round if you correctly selected 63/63.

I don't use the predictor, i used my own brain. You don't need a predictor when only looking a couple weeks in advance.

I couldn't give two shits about who is playing who past the hawks game but if you want to wave the white flag and think it's all too hard then go right ahead