Mystery Flight MH370 missing

[Zidane98]

All planes are monitored. I just can’t find where I saw that every commercial plane’s in flight position is known at all times and it can’t be turned off by the pilot.

ACARS can be turned off, SATCOM can be disabled. At least back in 2014 that was the case. What can't be turned off is the satellite link (hourly handshake) unless its power source is shut down (left hand bus in the 777). This must have happened as disabling SATCOM normally would result in a message being sent to the airline.

 

[Zidane98]

Private jet that disappeared in 1971 has just been found

Mystery of private jet that vanished in 1971 is finally solved

A private jet that vanished in 1971 has been found 53 years on. The story has a tragic ending. But families of the five men on board say they're glad to finally have closure.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The aircraft was known to have crashed somewhere in Lake Champlain. See map below:



So despite the general location of the crashed aircraft being known and the area miniscule compared to the potential MH370 search area it took 50 + years to finally locate the aircraft after many searches. And we're talking depths here of 20m on average, not 4-5000m like in the Southern Indian Ocean.


Just goes to show just how difficult the MH370 search is. It crashed somewhere within 100nm of the last ping arc at 00:19 in the Southern Indian Ocean. A huge area.

 

[Zidane98]

What's interesting in this case is the aircraft was found in areas already searched by further examination of sonar images from a 1997 survey with advanced equipment.

This could be a possibility in the MH370 search.

 

[Zidane98]

I urge anyone who maintains an interest in this to read/listen to Larry Vance's book MH370: Mystery Solved.


The general consensus amongst investigators is the partial handshake at 00:19 was the SATCOM link rebooting after the APU started up following fuel exhaustion.

Vance though points out a pilot looking to deliberately ditch the aircraft may have decided to start up the APU prior to fuel exhaustion so there was no issues with losing hydraulic power to control surfaces. In this instance the aircraft could have gone on to fly significantly past the 00:19 last handshake time.

Assuming a pilot that wants to go as far south as possible this could mean even 5 minutes of flight at typical speeds of 300knots could mean flying much further south with a glide aswell. The aircraft could be up to 200km south of the 00:19 ping. His suggestion seems to be to search everywhere from 50kms past the last ping heading south which is a massive, massive search area.

 

[andana]

KUALA LUMPUR: Putrajaya may consider Ocean Infinity’s proposal on a new search location for the ill-fated MH370 flight, says Anthony Loke.

“The new search location that was proposed by the Ocean Infinity company is based on information and latest data analysis by experts and researchers that the company had referred to,” the Transport Minister said during question and answer time in the Dewan Rakyat on Tuesday(Nov 5).

Ocean Infinity’s proposal for the search operation is credible and can be considered by the Malaysian government in its capacity as the country where the flight MH370 had been registered,” he added.

Loke was responding to a question by Chong Zemin (PH-Kampar) on whether the government still intends to continue the search for the Beijing-bound flight that disappeared on March 8,2014.

Loke said the new search location is estimated to include some 15,000 square kilometres in the Indian Ocean.

This search, he added, will be on a "no find, no fee" basis.

The government will not have to make any payment to the company if it is unable to find the remnants of the flight.

Previously, Ocean Infinity had conducted searches in the Indian Ocean from 2017 until the end of 2018.

In March, the Texas-based firm claimed that it had found new scientific evidence on the last location of MH370.

Thestar.com.my

 

[Zidane98]

Plane is located in international waters. Don't bother asking permission from Malaysia. Find it, then invoice them a finder's fee. No payment no location of wreckage.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I wonder about the 'no find no fee' bit. How much wreckage would they need to qualify? This is one of, if not the biggest piece of wreckage found so far, found in 2016 off the coast of Tanzania

SOURCE: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37820122

 

[Zidane98]

I wonder about the 'no find no fee' bit. How much wreckage would they need to qualify? This is one of, if not the biggest piece of wreckage found so far, found in 2016 off the coast of Tanzania

SOURCE: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37820122

Crash site will be the requirement for payment.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Crash site will be the requirement for payment.

That might be a tough ask if the plane disintegrated on impact or something. They might find the section with the black box/flight recorder if they're extremely lucky but the ocean currents have probably spread it far and wide.

 

[HitTheNailOnTheHead]

Maybe you can argue that for the first little bit, but they do seem to be being evasive about the cargo.

"MH370 An association representing the families of passengers and crew onboard Flight MH370 today questioned whether the concealment of the flight’s full cargo manifest is a conspiracy.

MH370 had disappeared without trace in March on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with over 200 onboard.

“We urge the authorities to make a full release of all cargo carried onboard MH370, stating clearly what was in the cargo hold,” read the statement by Voice370."

Pointing out how the cargo manifest was only released on May 1, the group said the cargo manifest released was not complete even after a delay of two months.
“We only know that there was 4,566kg of mangosteens shipped by Poh Seng Kian and a consignment of lithium batteries.
“We want to know the detailed contents and quantities of cargo in each of these consolidated airway bills and a load instruction sheet to see how the cargo holds were loaded.”

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/278403

221 kg of lithium batteries I believe. I don't believe enough consideration has been made to the possibility of a fire caused by these batteries. I have read in a few places that they were faulty batteries being returned to China - e.g. https://www.quora.com/I-viewed-an-article-by-a-senior-captain-who-claimed-that-Flight-370s-loss-of-transponders-and-communications-makes-perfect-sense-in-a-fire-So-what-would-a-captain-probably-do-if-he-spotted-signs-of-electrical-fire

 

[Zidane98]

221 kg of lithium batteries I believe. I don't believe enough consideration has been made to the possibility of a fire caused by these batteries. I have read in a few places that they were faulty batteries being returned to China - e.g. https://www.quora.com/I-viewed-an-a...bly-do-if-he-spotted-signs-of-electrical-fire

Fire that severe only for the aircraft to fly on for another 6 hours?


Doesn't pass the sniff test.


The aircraft was definitely under manual control at least until the final turn south. Fires that severe usually results in a crash within a relatively short timeframe.

 

[Zidane98]

That might be a tough ask if the plane disintegrated on impact or something. They might find the section with the black box/flight recorder if they're extremely lucky but the ocean currents have probably spread it far and wide.

The heaviest parts of the aircraft will sink straight to the sea floor. Wreckage recovered so far does not indicate the aircraft was smashed into a million pieces either.

For comparison, read up about Swiss Air 111:

At 22:31:18 ADT (01:31:18 UTC), Flight 111 struck the ocean at an estimated speed of 345 miles per hour (555 km/h; 154 m/s; 300 kn). The impact time also coincides with seismographic recorders at Halifax and Moncton which detected a seismic event at the time. The collision with the water decelerated the aircraft with approximately 350 g, causing it to disintegrate instantly.[3]: 116  The location of the crash was identified as approximately 44°24′33″N 63°58′25″W.[9]


Much of the wreckage of this aircraft was found on the bottom of the sea at the crash site.


Clearly MH370 impact forces were nothing like this (look at the flaperon). Most of the aircraft will be located on the sea bed near where it impacted the ocean, give or take some lateral drift to a 3000m deep sea bed.

 

[Zidane98]

As for other floating debris, that could be anywhere with ocean currents now. Not much point in recovering further floating wreckage anyway, that just tells us MH370 crashed somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Which we already know.


What will tell the real story is the wreckage on the bottom of the sea floor, blackboxes (if they work) and even the remains of those onboard (quite telling if only Shah's remains found in cockpit).

 

[HitTheNailOnTheHead]

Fire that severe only for the aircraft to fly on for another 6 hours?


Doesn't pass the sniff test.


The aircraft was definitely under manual control at least until the final turn south. Fires that severe usually results in a crash within a relatively short timeframe.

Can't remember saying anything about the severity notwithstanding the fact that lithium fires involve thermal runaway.

Anyway, with regard to your comment about manual control consider the following quote from this article ...

Did lithium-ion batteries cause the loss of MH370?

Clive Irving has a lengthy article in The Daily Beast suggesting why Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 may have crashed. His starting-off point is a report that fire risk is prompting...

www.electronicdesign.com

He asks, how, if a battery-initiated fire crippled MH 370, it could have continued flying for six hours? A fire in the forward cargo hold, he suggests, could have destroyed the power-supply line to communications and navigations systems without affecting flight controls.

He quotes Dr. Victor Ettel, an expert on the science and manufacture of lithium-ion batteries, as saying, “Even if the transponders were located in different parts of the airplane they could have been disabled by a fire in the electronics bay, instead of by a deliberate action by a pilot or a terrorist entering the electronics bay, as has been suggested. It is therefore conceivable that the electronic and navigational systems in the bay could have been disabled [by fire], leaving only the hydraulic systems working.”

 

[Zidane98]

Can't remember saying anything about the severity notwithstanding the fact that lithium fires involve thermal runaway.

Anyway, with regard to your comment about manual control consider the following quote from this article ...

Did lithium-ion batteries cause the loss of MH370?

Clive Irving has a lengthy article in The Daily Beast suggesting why Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 may have crashed. His starting-off point is a report that fire risk is prompting...

www.electronicdesign.com

This doesn't explain the fact that ACARS, all radio systems and all transpoders were disabled at the same time with no distress call from the crew.

There is no such fire that would cause 0 issues with no prior warning to the crew to all these systems going dark instantly.

 

[HitTheNailOnTheHead]

This doesn't explain the fact that ACARS, all radio systems and all transpoders were disabled at the same time with no distress call from the crew.

ACARS went dark several minutes before the transponder according to this.

What SATCOM, ACARS and Pings tell us about the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370

Eight days since the Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared somewhere over southeast Asia, the last known details about the missing Boeing 777 come

theaviationist.com

 

[Zidane98]

ACARS went dark several minutes before the transponder according to this.

What SATCOM, ACARS and Pings tell us about the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370

Eight days since the Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared somewhere over southeast Asia, the last known details about the missing Boeing 777 come

theaviationist.com

And all 4 radio systems going out at the same time as the transponder with no warning to the crew at the severity of the fire?

 

[Zidane98]

It looks like an Ocean Infinity search is going to go ahead from late Nov to March. This website is pretty good for news on MH370:

New Search | The Search for MH370

www.mh370search.com

Malaysian government now believes there is a credible chance of locating the crash site.


Like last time, no find, no fee for Ocean Infinity. That should at least motivate them to make sure they are looking in the most likely place.


Still not an easy task as they are yet to find the haystack that the needle is located in. Entirely possible that they could be searching mere kms from the crash site and miss it as they didn't pass over the top of it.


I believe this happened for the AF 447 search which was found 2 years not far from where had been initially searched. And in that instance they had the exact location of the aircraft 4 minutes prior to impact, its ground speed and heading. Plus, there was very strong evidence that the aircraft crashed from a stall. Even with all of tha input data and a search area not too remote it still took 2 years to find the aircraft.

MH370 discovery will need lots of perseverance and a dose of luck to find it.

 

[Zidane98]

ACARS went dark several minutes before the transponder according to this.

What SATCOM, ACARS and Pings tell us about the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370

Eight days since the Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared somewhere over southeast Asia, the last known details about the missing Boeing 777 come

theaviationist.com

Larry Vance (experienced air crash investigator) explains why it is nearly impossible that a fire caused all of these events

Has MH370 crashed due to an onboard fire?

Could MH370 crash be caused by an onboard fire? Let's look at the evidence.

www.hvsaviation.com

The first and biggest problem is B777 aircraft have fire/heat detectors galore in the cargo holds. Plus fire suppression systems.

We have Shah making a transmission at 1:19 - "Good night Malaysian 370". There is definitely no fire alarms going on at this point.

Everything goes dark at 1:21. There is absolutely no way that you have a scenario where there's no fire to one that consumes the aircraft so greatly in the space of just 2 minutes that it disables all radios, transpoders at the same time. And even if there was a fire crew would have warnings galore, plenty of time to radio a distress signal before everything failed.

I've been down this path myself many times wanting to believe this was a tragic accident caused by a freak fire.


Unfortunately the known facts disprove this theory quite easily without even addressing the fact that the aircraft continued flying for another 6 hours. including deliberately avoiding Indonesian airspace.


Someone definitely commanded MH370 to fly into the middle of the Southern Indian Ocean. That is a near certainty.

 

[Zidane98]

B777 cargo holds are able to withstand a 1700 degree fire for a minimum of 5 minutes. Bearing in mind that pilots would have received a fire indication well before a fire got to this level and would have already begun preparations for an emergency landing.


The time between the last radio transmission where all was normal and the plane going dark is 2 minutes. This is a documented factual event of MH370. This is less than the certified 5 minute time a B777 cargohold can resist a 1700 degree fire. For a fire to get to such a level in a B777 cargo hold (which also has fire suppression) would take much, much longer. It is a fact that there were no fire alarms on MH370 during the last radio transmission.

I hope this explains to everyone why the fire theory is a 99.9% chance of being nonsense.

 

[HitTheNailOnTheHead]

Larry Vance (experienced air crash investigator) explains why it is nearly impossible that a fire caused all of these events

Has MH370 crashed due to an onboard fire?

Could MH370 crash be caused by an onboard fire? Let's look at the evidence.

www.hvsaviation.com

The first and biggest problem is B777 aircraft have fire/heat detectors galore in the cargo holds. Plus fire suppression systems.

We have Shah making a transmission at 1:19 - "Good night Malaysian 370". There is definitely no fire alarms going on at this point.

Everything goes dark at 1:21. There is absolutely no way that you have a scenario where there's no fire to one that consumes the aircraft so greatly in the space of just 2 minutes that it disables all radios, transpoders at the same time. And even if there was a fire crew would have warnings galore, plenty of time to radio a distress signal before everything failed.

I've been down this path myself many times wanting to believe this was a tragic accident caused by a freak fire.


Unfortunately the known facts disprove this theory quite easily without even addressing the fact that the aircraft continued flying for another 6 hours. including deliberately avoiding Indonesian airspace.


Someone definitely commanded MH370 to fly into the middle of the Southern Indian Ocean. That is a near certainty.

OK, you've almost convinced me. Other than two remaining issues.

Firstly you keep hailing the fire suppression systems but I thought it was well known that the fire suppression systems in the cargo holds of these aircraft are (or were at the time) next to useless against a lithium ion thermal runaway fire. Secondly I have no problem with the radios and transponders going dark at the same time. There's 3 different VHF's and obviously 3 different antennas and power buses. The question is how are coaxial connections and cables run through the airframe to those antennas? If they were bundled together they could quite easily have been severed simultaneously in a thermal runaway event.

 

[HitTheNailOnTheHead]

The other issue I have is that presumably you ascribe to the pilot suicide theory. I can't see any conceivable reason for a pilot to strategically fly ~6 hours off course, just to crash the plane in a more remote section of ocean. That has never made any sense to me.

 

[Zidane98]

The other issue I have is that presumably you ascribe to the pilot suicide theory. I can't see any conceivable reason for a pilot to strategically fly ~6 hours off course, just to crash the plane in a more remote section of ocean. That has never made any sense to me.

I agree on this. All other cases of pilot suicide have involved pilots simply pointing the plane down and crashing it deliberately. At face value it makes no sense to fly around for 6 hours then committ suicide.


The only thing I can think of is whoever crashed the plane chose to do it in the middle of the Southern Indian Ocean in an effort to ensure it is never discovered.

 

[Zidane98]

OK, you've almost convinced me. Other than two remaining issues.

Firstly you keep hailing the fire suppression systems but I thought it was well known that the fire suppression systems in the cargo holds of these aircraft are (or were at the time) next to useless against a lithium ion thermal runaway fire. Secondly I have no problem with the radios and transponders going dark at the same time. There's 3 different VHF's and obviously 3 different antennas and power buses. The question is how are coaxial connections and cables run through the airframe to those antennas? If they were bundled together they could quite easily have been severed simultaneously in a thermal runaway event.

The Vance article explains this. He investigated where wiring runs in the B777 for these systems. Nowhere near the cargo hold. For these systems to be disabled by fire the whole front section of the plane would need to be on fire. Can you imagine this happening and the aircraft continuing to fly for another 6 hours? Why would this "fire" suddenly stop? Such a fire almost certainly would result in a crash if the plane did not land ASAP.

Ignoring fire suppression systems B777 aircraft have cargo holds designed to contain a 1700 degree fire for at least 5 minutes.


It is an established fact that there was no fire on the aircraft when the last transmission was made from MH370.

2 minutes later, everything goes dark. Simply impossible even for a lithium battery developing fire to consume the aircraft that quickly and cause all those systems to go dark at the same time with no warning to the crew. And if it did progress that quickly it wouldn't stop all of a sudden, it would result in the loss of the aircraft pretty quickly.


The working theory is whoever was in the cockpit turned off the left hand AC bus, causing all systems to go dark simultaneously. The reason for this is simple - disabling ACARS by normal means would result in a message being transmitted to the airline that someone had disabled ACARS in flight. This is obviously a no-no and would trigger an immediate response. By cutting power to the system this log off message is not transmitted.


For comparison review UPS Flight 6 lithium battery fire accident:

UPS Airlines Flight 6 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

They were able to radio ATC almost instantly upon the lithium fire being detected, This aircraft had 81,000 lithium batteries ignite!!


If you read the investigation for this accident it was discovered that the aircraft was still controllable. What caused the crash was an aircon pack being disabled by one of the pilots wihich allowed excessive smoke to enter the cockpit, choking the pilots.


I too wanted to believe that this tragedy was simply a tragic accident caused by a fire. But the facts absolutely do not support this hypothesis. They really don't. I encourage a thorough read of the Vance article on fire. His explanations are concise and perfectly demonstrate why a fire is simply not compatible with the known facts of MH370.

 

[HitTheNailOnTheHead]

The Vance article explains this. He investigated where wiring runs in the B777 for these systems. Nowhere near the cargo hold. For these systems to be disabled by fire the whole front section of the plane would need to be on fire. Can you imagine this happening and the aircraft continuing to fly for another 6 hours? Why would this "fire" suddenly stop? Such a fire almost certainly would result in a crash if the plane did not land ASAP.

Ignoring fire suppression systems B777 aircraft have cargo holds designed to contain a 1700 degree fire for at least 5 minutes.


It is an established fact that there was no fire on the aircraft when the last transmission was made from MH370.

2 minutes later, everything goes dark. Simply impossible even for a lithium battery developing fire to consume the aircraft that quickly and cause all those systems to go dark at the same time with no warning to the crew. And if it did progress that quickly it wouldn't stop all of a sudden, it would result in the loss of the aircraft pretty quickly.


The working theory is whoever was in the cockpit turned off the left hand AC bus, causing all systems to go dark simultaneously. The reason for this is simple - disabling ACARS by normal means would result in a message being transmitted to the airline that someone had disabled ACARS in flight. This is obviously a no-no and would trigger an immediate response. By cutting power to the system this log off message is not transmitted.


For comparison review UPS Flight 6 lithium battery fire accident:

UPS Airlines Flight 6 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

They were able to radio ATC almost instantly upon the lithium fire being detected, This aircraft had 81,000 lithium batteries ignite!!


If you read the investigation for this accident it was discovered that the aircraft was still controllable. What caused the crash was an aircon pack being disabled by one of the pilots wihich allowed excessive smoke to enter the cockpit, choking the pilots.


I too wanted to believe that this tragedy was simply a tragic accident caused by a fire. But the facts absolutely do not support this hypothesis. They really don't. I encourage a thorough read of the Vance article on fire. His explanations are concise and perfectly demonstrate why a fire is simply not compatible with the known facts of MH370.

I appreciate the time you put into writing all that. Very convincing.