Coaching Staff Former Coach Ben "Truck" Rutten - Sacked for real this time - 21/8

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Keystone agony said:
Melbourne 2016 (Roos last year)
Finished 11th, 10 wins 97.6%

Essendon 2019
Finished 8th, 12 wins 95.4%
Click to expand...

Check out the playing list in 2016.

Gawn
Petracca
Viney
Oliver
Brayshaw
Salem

AFL Match Statistics : Melbourne defeats Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium Grand Final Saturday, 25th September 2021

Melbourne defeats Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium Grand Final Saturday, 25th September 2021 AFL match statistics
www.footywire.com

Look who most of their best players were on GF day last year

Gawn
Petracca
Viney
Oliver
Brayshaw
Salem
 

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Keystone agony said:
It depends if you think he was running things

Lets get back to the question

Your happy to extend this now or this time next year when hes 2-7 with 74% ?
Click to expand...
if the question is extend on a coach, I say its in the year of his expiry
But, I would hope there isn't expectation he has us playing finals as a KPI for his extension.
trajectory is important but so is an honest stocktake on our list

I reckon there's a good 24 players we may need to turnover before we turn this around.
He needs until 2025 imo. but you also don't extend until 2023 in the event he loses the players.
 
citizen-erased said:
if the question is extend on a coach, I say its in the year of his expiry
But, I would hope there isn't expectation he has us playing finals as a KPI for his extension.
trajectory is important but so is an honest stocktake on our list

I reckon there's a good 24 players we may need to turnover before we turn this around.
He needs until 2025 imo. but you also don't extend until 2023 in the event he loses the players.
Click to expand...
But why?

If your honestly believing it should take 5 years + then wants the point in waiting

It shouldnt matter hes 2-7, 74% 2023 round 9, because as you and owen87 say it takes 5+ years
 
Keystone agony said:
But why?

If your honestly believing it should take 5 years + then wants the point in waiting

It shouldnt matter hes 2-7, 74% 2023 round 9, because as you and owen87 say it takes 5+ years
Click to expand...
you wait in the event things go south
unless there is noise someone is going to poach him we gain nothing extending now.

in event he loses the playing group, if you extend now its more expensive to terminate.
Wait til next year, lessens the risk.
 
citizen-erased said:
you wait in the event things go south
unless there is noise someone is going to poach him we gain nothing extending now.

in event he loses the playing group, if you extend now its more expensive to terminate.
Wait til next year, lessens the risk.
Click to expand...
So your happy to extend if tomorrow is 2023?

That was the whole basis of my start to this
 
Keystone agony said:
So your happy to extend if tomorrow is 2023?

That was the whole basis of my start to this
Click to expand...
if the hypothetical is do I extend Truck today if his contract is about to expire tomorrow, then yes I do.

if you're asking me to fast forward to this time next year...then it's a little more nuanced. there's a bit of a journey still to go on.
this time last year we weren't looking good. then won pretty much all our games.
Still have half a season, an off-season, pre-season and start to 2023 to get through
 

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Mr Mojo Risin said:
They've had literally years to change these habits, since 2018 we have tried to drive a defensive focus. Toward the back end of that year our pressure rating was great and it looked like we might have had buy in. It was primarily driven by Smith's manic defensive leadership that got him the Crichton Medal. Sadly he has not physically been able to keep doing that. But these guys above have not driven anything like this, they have not led the way. Is it any coincidence that the time we have looked half decent this year is when Smith has run his knee into the ground to lead the way with his mongrel? He was fresh coming in for a half as the sub against Adelaide and against the Hawks had come in after time off. Say what you want about him (and I have), but he is one of the only types we have who will lead in this fashion, he's just not physically capable anymore of sustaining it.

It's long past overdue that we make a statement about these players who play for themselves, even if they don't believe they are. These players who think they know better than the coaching staff whoever they might be.

IMO At the very most these players should be given a couple of weeks to display real effort and intent defensively to the plan after being given notice this week about a new hard line to selection policy. I'd support if they were dropped this week.

But really, it's time to stop allowing the tail to wag the dog. I can say one thing for sure, Rutten will lose the kind of players we desperately should want to keep if he doesn't not enforce standards to players who don't meet them.
Click to expand...

Y'all might have to squint (or click to view it larger). Some points of interest:
  • Last week's tackle count was the lowest we've had over the entire period since Round 1, 2018. However, last week is not the first time we've had a tackle count in the 30s. It's happened three times this year, twice last year, and four times in 2020.
  • Comparing the two graphs, you can see that the overall performance correlates with the performance of the top ten. Which is to say, we are reliant on a few players to do most of the work and lead the way.
  • Of the top ten tacklers on the list this year:
    1. Devon Smith is the blue section running along the bottom of the graph. We miss him, a lot. Even with his drop in form he's still contributing 5 tackles a week when he plays, which is about a quarter of the output for the whole top 10 this year. Underrated.
    2. Zach Merrett is the red section directly above Devon Smith. He usually averages about 5 tackles a game, but in 2022 this is closer to 2.5: In order, 3, 3, (injx3), 4, 2, 2, 1
    3. Will Snelling (yellow above Merrett) is not available, but usually averages 4.5-5 tackles per game, has 8 or 10 as often as he has 2.
    4. Jye Caldwell has only played a few games thanks to his hamstring injury last year, but he's already a solid contributor. Needs to keep doing good things more consistently.
    5. Dylan Shiel is pretty much on par for his usual output, especially once you account for being sub one week – then he would be exactly on par. Maybe he could do more, but he's not actually doing any less than he ordinarily would.
    6. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti also not available at the moment. Usually good for about 3 tackles a game since 2020.
    7. Darcy Parish varies a lot, he ranges between 1 tackle and 7 or 8. In 2020 and prior he tackled a lot, but was playing half forward. When he went into the guts towards the end of 2020 and in 2021 the tackling dropped off a lot, and that has continued this year (7 last week though!) <- perhaps while we have a small forward problem we would be better served as a team to have Shiel in the middle and Parish forward?
    8. Zach Reid has a high average but over his four games he has had 5, 4, 3, 2 tackles. Usually tall defenders are in one on ones trying to prevent a mark rather than chasing and tackling a live ball, so I would expect his average to drop more as he gets harder jobs each week.
    9. Andy McGrath has games where he gets 10, 11, 12 tackles, but his usual average is more like 1-4, which is how he is going this year. He had 7 in round 4, which was the high point.
    10. Kyle Langford is another one that we miss, he's played two games since round 17 last year and would usually be good for 2-5 tackles per game.
    11. Bonus: Number 11 on the list (pushed out of the top 10 by Reid's inflated average, I suppose) is Stringer, who will usually contribute 3 tackles per game. Another one that has missed a few games this year.
  • I guess when so many of the top 10 are missing you really need the rest of them to lift, others need to step up, and therein lies the problem.
  • A dearth of small forwards means we have gone taller in the forward line, and I don't think you're ever going to get 5-10 tackles a game from the taller blokes to replace Walla, Smith and Snelling's contributions.
  • Props to Perkins, 6 tackles last week, 5 this week. Shouldn't be the only bloke that lays more than 3 though. Hell, Caldwell was second highest on 3 last week, and he was subbed off. After that no one got more than 2.
  • Our medium/small defenders don't tackle much either lately. They've combined for 9, 5, 8, 9, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, so far this year, fewer every week.
  • Players who average less than 2 tackles per game this year: Draper, Cox, Wright, Stewart, Zerk-Thatcher, Ridley, Laverde, Francis, Martin, Cutler, Durham, Heppell, Redman, Kelly, Ham, Waterman. (Some of these you wouldn't necessarily expect a high tackle count due to the position they play).

Screen Shot 2022-05-17 at 13.23.35.png
*Individual tackle count for each Essendon player (who played at least 1 minute of game time) since R1 2018, in a stacked graph so you can see the total tackles for the club in the overall shape of the graph.
*Sorted by the last season that they played in, then by average tackles per game (so all of the 2022 players by average, then the ones who last played in 2021 by average, etc). So all of the current players are at the bottom of the graph.

Screen Shot 2022-05-17 at 13.24.30.png
*Top 10 currently listed players based on average tackles per game since 2018 (so you can see who is missing through injury or form).
 
Lore said:
Y'all might have to squint (or click to view it larger). Some points of interest:
  • Last week's tackle count was the lowest we've had over the entire period since Round 1, 2018. However, last week is not the first time we've had a tackle count in the 30s. It's happened three times this year, twice last year, and four times in 2020.
  • Comparing the two graphs, you can see that the overall performance correlates with the performance of the top ten. Which is to say, we are reliant on a few players to do most of the work and lead the way.
  • Of the top ten tacklers on the list this year:
    1. Devon Smith is the blue section running along the bottom of the graph. We miss him, a lot. Even with his drop in form he's still contributing 5 tackles a week when he plays, which is about a quarter of the output for the whole top 10 this year. Underrated.
    2. Zach Merrett is the red section directly above Devon Smith. He usually averages about 5 tackles a game, but in 2022 this is closer to 2.5: In order, 3, 3, (injx3), 4, 2, 2, 1
    3. Will Snelling (yellow above Merrett) is not available, but usually averages 4.5-5 tackles per game, has 8 or 10 as often as he has 2.
    4. Jye Caldwell has only played a few games thanks to his hamstring injury last year, but he's already a solid contributor. Needs to keep doing good things more consistently.
    5. Dylan Shiel is pretty much on par for his usual output, especially once you account for being sub one week – then he would be exactly on par. Maybe he could do more, but he's not actually doing any less than he ordinarily would.
    6. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti also not available at the moment. Usually good for about 3 tackles a game since 2020.
    7. Darcy Parish varies a lot, he ranges between 1 tackle and 7 or 8. In 2020 and prior he tackled a lot, but was playing half forward. When he went into the guts towards the end of 2020 and in 2021 the tackling dropped off a lot, and that has continued this year (7 last week though!) <- perhaps while we have a small forward problem we would be better served as a team to have Shiel in the middle and Parish forward?
    8. Zach Reid has a high average but over his four games he has had 5, 4, 3, 2 tackles. Usually tall defenders are in one on ones trying to prevent a mark rather than chasing and tackling a live ball, so I would expect his average to drop more as he gets harder jobs each week.
    9. Andy McGrath has games where he gets 10, 11, 12 tackles, but his usual average is more like 1-4, which is how he is going this year. He had 7 in round 4, which was the high point.
    10. Kyle Langford is another one that we miss, he's played two games since round 17 last year and would usually be good for 2-5 tackles per game.
    11. Bonus: Number 11 on the list (pushed out of the top 10 by Reid's inflated average, I suppose) is Stringer, who will usually contribute 3 tackles per game. Another one that has missed a few games this year.
  • I guess when so many of the top 10 are missing you really need the rest of them to lift, others need to step up, and therein lies the problem.
  • A dearth of small forwards means we have gone taller in the forward line, and I don't think you're ever going to get 5-10 tackles a game from the taller blokes to replace Walla, Smith and Snelling's contributions.
  • Props to Perkins, 6 tackles last week, 5 this week. Shouldn't be the only bloke that lays more than 3 though. Hell, Caldwell was second highest on 3 last week, and he was subbed off. After that no one got more than 2.
  • Our medium/small defenders don't tackle much either lately. They've combined for 9, 5, 8, 9, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, so far this year, fewer every week.
  • Players who average less than 2 tackles per game this year: Draper, Cox, Wright, Stewart, Zerk-Thatcher, Ridley, Laverde, Francis, Martin, Cutler, Durham, Heppell, Redman, Kelly, Ham, Waterman. (Some of these you wouldn't necessarily expect a high tackle count due to the position they play).

View attachment 1402205
*Individual tackle count for each Essendon player (who played at least 1 minute of game time) since R1 2018, in a stacked graph so you can see the total tackles for the club in the overall shape of the graph.
*Sorted by the last season that they played in, then by average tackles per game (so all of the 2022 players by average, then the ones who last played in 2021 by average, etc). So all of the current players are at the bottom of the graph.

View attachment 1402206
*Top 10 currently listed players based on average tackles per game since 2018 (so you can see who is missing through injury or form).
Click to expand...
This is awesome thanks! Notwithstanding the issues of tackle count as a measure which we've talked about, this is really good.

Side note: Not all tackles are equal. I rate the tackles made not in stagnant contests around the ball more. I think Parish, Merrett and Shiel's tackle numbers are inflated by stoppages whereby they are standing next to someone who gets a palm down or quick handball. Not to say it's not important to tackle there, but those numbers don't indicate defensive running and positioning.

Side side note: I really love all the information you keep and share with us, I enjoy reading it all and appreciate the effort. It's great content.
 
Last edited:
citizen-erased said:
if the hypothetical is do I extend Truck today if his contract is about to expire tomorrow, then yes I do.

if you're asking me to fast forward to this time next year...then it's a little more nuanced. there's a bit of a journey still to go on.
this time last year we weren't looking good. then won pretty much all our games.
Still have half a season, an off-season, pre-season and start to 2023 to get through
Click to expand...
The hypothetical is its may 17th 2023

Are you extending beyond 2023?

Ie nothings changed. Were 2-7 with 74% and the players seem to be shqoing the same effort

I doubt you are! Or am i wrong
 
Keystone agony said:
Answer the simple question then. Or keep walking around it

It has a ? For a reason

Things need to have improved in 12 months time for him to be extended
Click to expand...

You’ve made up something I’ve never said, have fixated on a bizarre hypothetical, and are now demanding I respond to your badgering about something you’ve made up.

Methinks not.
 

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Coaching Staff Former Coach Ben "Truck" Rutten - Sacked for real this time - 21/8

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