- Banned
- #76
We need to evolve towards the win.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Fremantle are in a hurry
- Thread starter The Speaker
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Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Probably only two games that Freo has been out of this year - against Hawthorn in Van Diemen's Land and in the first Derby. Other than the second half of 2006, that's probably the most consistent year they've had.
Van Diemen's Land - great song off an even greater album....
- Mar 2, 2007
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Point taken.
If Lyon was at the helm in 06', they may have gone further. Though I would argue that their team in 06' was better than their team now; whilst their prospective list now is much better.
True, but his percentage is flattered by having taken the reins at an opportune time.
This year is the first time that I have felt confident that my team can win any game.
This year is the first time that when leading at 3Q time, I have had confidence in my team to run it out and win.
This year is the first time I have ever felt confident about winning in Melbourne
Ross has done this
This year is the first time that when leading at 3Q time, I have had confidence in my team to run it out and win.
This year is the first time I have ever felt confident about winning in Melbourne
Ross has done this
Nearly 3/4 of that team is younger than the average. That shows that the average age doesn't reflect the age of the majority of the playing list and proves my point.
By looking at averages you will wonder why Team A with an average of 22.79 is winning games while GWS is still loosing with the same average. Look deeper and you could see Team A has an even distribution of players with ages ranging from 26 - 18 while GWS is 3/4 24 and under.
Stats 101. Distribution of data matters when comparing data sets.
Keys
Looking for a cloud to yell at
- Moderator
- #83
Heard ken judge on abc radio over here on Saturday. Now I know many people don't rate judge's opinions but he made what I thought was a good point
Fremantle did have a difficult start to the year in terms of the quality of the teams they played and consequently had mixed results as the playing group adjusted to the new game style. They then had a run of easier games which they won and in the process started to bed down the game plan as their confidence grew from winning consistently. As they've come up against better opponents more recently they've taken that confidence with them with obvious results
Whilst I doubt theyll make the gf this year, they will be a dangerous opponent for anyone they come across
As for next year I can't see them dropping away under Lyon in the same way they have previously simply because there is no way a competitive man like Lyon will allow the playing group to be satisfied with a one off finals appearance
Hate to say it but freo are likely to be a fairly regular player in September in the coming years
Fremantle did have a difficult start to the year in terms of the quality of the teams they played and consequently had mixed results as the playing group adjusted to the new game style. They then had a run of easier games which they won and in the process started to bed down the game plan as their confidence grew from winning consistently. As they've come up against better opponents more recently they've taken that confidence with them with obvious results
Whilst I doubt theyll make the gf this year, they will be a dangerous opponent for anyone they come across
As for next year I can't see them dropping away under Lyon in the same way they have previously simply because there is no way a competitive man like Lyon will allow the playing group to be satisfied with a one off finals appearance
Hate to say it but freo are likely to be a fairly regular player in September in the coming years
One big thing that I'm curious about is how Harvey would have performed as coach if he had all his players playing and not injured. Would he do just as well as Lyon? Or worse?
Credit to Lyon for giving freo a bit of instant success.
Credit to Lyon for giving freo a bit of instant success.
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We win one big game and suddenly we are coming. Once we beat some top 4 teams, we might have something to talk about. North were only 7th. Form is fickle, I dont think we have anything to brag about just yet.
Probably only two games that Freo has been out of this year - against Hawthorn in Van Diemen's Land and in the first Derby. Other than the second half of 2006, that's probably the most consistent year they've had.
Van Diemen's Land - great song off an even greater album....
I love Rattle And Hum. Was 12 when it came out and saw the movie too.
All measures of central tendency sacrifice detail for convenience, as I'm sure you're well aware. But the median loses more.
If the older 10 players on the GWS team change to this...
22y 81d Ward, Callan
21y305d Davis, Phil
21y100d Cooyoo, Rhys
21y 46d Scully, Tom
20y362d Phillips, Andrew
20y148d Segrave, Tim
20y123d Miles, Anthony
20y 99d Aylett, Kurt
20y 43d Haynes, Nick
20y 22d Bruce, Josh
19y354d Kennedy, Adam
-----
19y175d Wilson, Nathan
19y113d Shiel, Dylan
19y113d Treloar, Adam
19y112d Hampton, Curtly
19y 90d Cameron, Jeremy
19y 86d Bugg, Tomas
19y 41d Patton, Jonathon
19y 41d Smith, Devon
18y325d Tomlinson, Adam
18y279d Greene, Toby
18y200d Edwards, Shaun
...the mean reacts by shifting to 19.95, while the median remains oblivious at 19.72.
Winning strike rates of teams with a mean age at least 1 year greater than the opponent:
Code:
Opp Age Plyd Won Lost Dr Win %
-------------------------------
< 22yo 225 162 60 3 72.67
22-23yo 1075 715 344 16 67.26
23-24yo 2230 1404 805 21 63.43
24-25yo 1945 1158 765 22 60.10Winning strike rates of teams with a median age at least 1 year greater than the opponent:
Code:
Opp Age Plyd Won Lost Dr Win %
-------------------------------
< 22yo 821 577 244 5 69.98
22-23yo 2022 1223 779 20 60.98
23-24yo 2625 1532 1068 25 58.84
24-25yo 1460 824 621 15 56.95i.e. the difference in means is consistently a more powerful statistic than the difference in medians. There is no way known that a figure which effectively discards all measurements except the one (or two) in the middle can be as descriptive as one which takes every value into account.
Apologies to those who find this boring.
Seemed to do okay without him on the weekend.
People always seem to dismiss Freo as having a narrow window due to Pav-Mcpharlin-Sandi´s age.
As far as Sandi goes, we have two gun backups in Griffin and Clarke. Poor Zac has had to try to play as a forward for most of the year as a result. We also have a young kid in NSW who we get to pick up as a rookie and who prior to his injuries this year was rated a top 10-15 talent - Craig Moller is his name. Can play forward too. So the future in the big man division is sweet as.
As far as our KPD´s go. We have both Johnson and Dawson back there as backups to Mcphalin. Johnson is still only 28 and Ross has turned him into a really good defender, career best form. People laugh at Dawson, but apart from two ordinary games early in the year, he has also been very good as a lock down defender. Add in Silvagni and Faulks (has been very good in the WAFL) and we have good backup there. That said, we will probably look at getting a young key defender this year in the draft. One should also remember that under Ross Lyon´s game plan, the sum is much greater than the parts in defence - he is brilliant at getting them to work for each other.
The key forward area is less certain, although Pav reckons he can go for another 3 years or so. People forget that Chris Mayne is essentially doing the role that Jack Darling would of done. 35 goals this year, strong mark and even better than Jack at the defensive efforts. We will probably certainly take a forward this year also - Hogan, Cloke, Shaw or Stringer.
Of course one can also debate whether key forwards are so important after all. West Coast won with a midfielder as the only multiple goalkicker on the weekend. We won without Pav and kicked our highest score. The leading goalscorer this season in the AFL only has 60.
Our small forwards are looking like one of our strongest areas with Balla, Walters with Mellington waiting in the wings.
Our midfield is going to be the strongest area. Our pickups last year in particular look like being guns - Neale, Sutcliffe, Menagola, Sheridan, Schloithe and Crozier have shown fantastic signs with each putting in some dominant performances at WAFL level. Watch out for Neale and Schloithe. Another rookie in Wilson-King is a Hayden replacement. Got some kid called Morabito too to come back.
Such is the strength of our emerging depth we will almost certainly have to trade away one or two guys of Broughton, Suban or Silvagni´s quality in order to make room for the upgrades and new additions to our list at the end of this year as there are only 3 reasonably certain delistings (Crichton, Van Berlo and Gover - retired). Possibly 4 if Anthony is paid out.
Apoligies to all too.
But I dont know what you are getting at with those two points.
First point shows that the median has always reflected the majority of the list is young so it is more stable.
On your second point I never likened either mean or median to winning games totally seperate argument. I just said that the give a better idea of how the list is structed. How the structure of the list determines wins is another factor. Median presented with mean is better as you can then tell which way the data is skewed (lots of older or younger guys), but they dont present it that way.
I am not really going to go on with this though. You will find thousands of peer reviewed articles that determine median is a better measurement of the central location when data is skewed, which afl lists are a lot of the time. Either tens of thousands mathematicians/statisticians have been wrong or you are right and need to submit your findings to a Journal. Thus, reshaping every financial and economic model in known existance.
- Banned
- #90
Harvey took over at a similar opportune time.
For H&A W/L record this is our second most successful season.
I have seen better Freo sides than this 2012 team line up and lose more than half their games.
I've been very impressed with how we've played the last month. We seem to really understand the game plan now and everyone is pulling in the same direction. I'm confident heading into September, but time will tell.
The two team lists are obviously different, yet the median is the same for both. Yes it's "stable", but that's not what I'm after.
This does not involve financial or economic models and you're obviously coming from a business statistics perspective, but since I'm not a statistician by trade and therefore not qualified to debate the point, I'll drop it, too. But the mean has served me well and I'll stick with it, thank you.
No, he took over the oldest team in club history and pared the list back. Freo's team profile 2007-09 is roughly similar to the Bulldogs' 2010-12. Parker, Cook, the Carrs, McManus, Bell, Johnson, Farmer, Black, Solomon all played their final games in this period. It's difficult to win games while shedding veterans.
Harvey paid the price for one failed season, 2011. Most neutrals thought he'd done a good job until then.
- Banned
- #94
His 2008 should have been much better than third last.
Our teams under Harvey were still flakey, lucky dip football Ross calls it. Now we are anywhere, anytime, no excuses and I for one love it. Harvey is not in the same suburb, let alone ball park to Lyon as a coach.
No more so than Watters is entitled to lift St.Kilda back into the eight next year. The list had run its race.
- Banned
- #97
I just don't buy the argument that Harvey copped it for one failed season.
I get it, you guys are happy with Lyon. Good luck in the finals, I'd rather see Freo have success than most of the others.
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- #99
It's not just that we're happy with Lyon. By the end of Harvey's tenure he'd had negative records against coaches like Dean Bailey and your own club - which was by and large consistently younger and less experienced than the Freo sides he took up to them. His failure wasn't one season, it was lack of consistent performances across all seasons. Even in 2010 we had some inexplicably embarrassing losses. I just don't believe he was hard done by - he had an opportunity to end the loser attitude at Freo and by 2011 he just seemed to spend his time reinforcing it.
Generally the only two really poor losses this year were against top four aspirants Hawthorn and West Coast. It has been a huge improvement.
Disagree.
Cutting veterans, or starting with an old list, doesn't mean he was the right coach to take them forward. See that as really bad logic. It means he did the right thing in list management - same with Knights (or Bailey for that matter).
Doing one part of your job right doesn't mean you did everything right, or deserved to keep the job.
I can't imagine anyone defending an accountant who'd got all the 'expenditures' spot on, but completely screwed up the 'incomes'.
List is just one part of the job, I know it's your favourite thing (ever, in the whole wide world!) but it isn't everything.
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