- Banned
- #76
We need to evolve towards the win.I'd really love to know what he used to say to them in his 3qtr time speech.
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We need to evolve towards the win.I'd really love to know what he used to say to them in his 3qtr time speech.
Freo have lost a few big games under Lyon - but I admit that many of their late season games are bloody impressive.
Also I think there was someone that took a swipe at my last post but deleted it immediately afterwards. Whoever you are, if you want to say it, say it.
We need to evolve towards the win.
He is already Fremantle's best coach.
I don't see the point in being overly cautious about this. He has already transformed them into a well-drilled, dedicated, professional outfit. You can see that from just watching them play.
It's not, but he's made finals in his first year and his win/loss record is already the best of all Freo coaches.
I'm going to disagree with you re mean v median for sporting teams.
An outlier among property values might be a $2m property in a $400K area, whereas players' ages almost always vary from 18-33. If they're outside that range, it's not by much.
Also, your examples use only five sample ages, which is not really useful for anything. The number of players in a team, i.e. 22, mitigates the effect of outliers where the mean is concerned.
Finally, although they are both measures of central tendency, the median is more subject to skewness.
e.g. GWS line-up for Round 14
35y269d McDonald, James I.
33y199d Brogan, Dean
32y231d Cornes, Chad
32y174d Power, Luke
24y174d Giles, Jonathan
23y255d Mohr, Tim
23y138d Palmer, Rhys
22y 81d Ward, Callan
21y305d Davis, Phil
21y 46d Scully, Tom
19y354d Kennedy, Adam
-----
19y175d Wilson, Nathan
19y113d Shiel, Dylan
19y113d Treloar, Adam
19y112d Hampton, Curtly
19y 90d Cameron, Jeremy
19y 86d Bugg, Tomas
19y 41d Patton, Jonathon
19y 41d Smith, Devon
18y325d Tomlinson, Adam
18y279d Greene, Toby
18y200d Edwards, Shaun
(Note the two pairs of players sharing exact birthdays, plus Power & Giles born on Jan 8. Rare!)
The average age of this team is 22.79, the median 19.72. A very substantial difference.
GWS teams have had the 17 lowest medians in VFL/AFL history, but only two of the 17 lowest means.
It's a matter of preference, but I think the mean is a more meaningful (heheh) figure when used in calculations concerning teams, and indeed most sports. Cricket averages are more susceptible to skewing than team ages, yet a batsman's "median" has never been cited as a measure of performance, to my knowledge.
Probably only two games that Freo has been out of this year - against Hawthorn in Van Diemen's Land and in the first Derby. Other than the second half of 2006, that's probably the most consistent year they've had.
Van Diemen's Land - great song off an even greater album....
Nearly 3/4 of that team is younger than the average. That shows that the average age doesn't reflect the age of the majority of the playing list and proves my point.
By looking at averages you will wonder why Team A with an average of 22.79 is winning games while GWS is still loosing with the same average. Look deeper and you could see Team A has an even distribution of players with ages ranging from 26 - 18 while GWS is 3/4 24 and under.
Stats 101. Distribution of data matters when comparing data sets.
Opp Age Plyd Won Lost Dr Win %
-------------------------------
< 22yo 225 162 60 3 72.67
22-23yo 1075 715 344 16 67.26
23-24yo 2230 1404 805 21 63.43
24-25yo 1945 1158 765 22 60.10
Opp Age Plyd Won Lost Dr Win %
-------------------------------
< 22yo 821 577 244 5 69.98
22-23yo 2022 1223 779 20 60.98
23-24yo 2625 1532 1068 25 58.84
24-25yo 1460 824 621 15 56.95
If they can find a suitable Pav replacement they will be a force for awhile. That said Pav does look like he could keep backing up for awhile.
All measures of central tendency sacrifice detail for convenience, as I'm sure you're well aware. But the median loses more.
If the older 10 players on the GWS team change to this...
22y 81d Ward, Callan
21y305d Davis, Phil
21y100d Cooyoo, Rhys
21y 46d Scully, Tom
20y362d Phillips, Andrew
20y148d Segrave, Tim
20y123d Miles, Anthony
20y 99d Aylett, Kurt
20y 43d Haynes, Nick
20y 22d Bruce, Josh
19y354d Kennedy, Adam
-----
19y175d Wilson, Nathan
19y113d Shiel, Dylan
19y113d Treloar, Adam
19y112d Hampton, Curtly
19y 90d Cameron, Jeremy
19y 86d Bugg, Tomas
19y 41d Patton, Jonathon
19y 41d Smith, Devon
18y325d Tomlinson, Adam
18y279d Greene, Toby
18y200d Edwards, Shaun
...the mean reacts by shifting to 19.95, while the median remains oblivious at 19.72.
Winning strike rates of teams with a mean age at least 1 year greater than the opponent:
Code:Opp Age Plyd Won Lost Dr Win % ------------------------------- < 22yo 225 162 60 3 72.67 22-23yo 1075 715 344 16 67.26 23-24yo 2230 1404 805 21 63.43 24-25yo 1945 1158 765 22 60.10
Winning strike rates of teams with a median age at least 1 year greater than the opponent:
Code:Opp Age Plyd Won Lost Dr Win % ------------------------------- < 22yo 821 577 244 5 69.98 22-23yo 2022 1223 779 20 60.98 23-24yo 2625 1532 1068 25 58.84 24-25yo 1460 824 621 15 56.95
i.e. the difference in means is consistently a more powerful statistic than the difference in medians. There is no way known that a figure which effectively discards all measurements except the one (or two) in the middle can be as descriptive as one which takes every value into account.
Apologies to those who find this boring.
Harvey took over at a similar opportune time.True, but his percentage is flattered by having taken the reins at an opportune time.
I am not really going to go on with this though. You will find thousands of peer reviewed articles that determine median is a better measurement of the central location when data is skewed, which afl lists are a lot of the time. Either tens of thousands mathematicians/statisticians have been wrong or you are right and need to submit your findings to a Journal. Thus, reshaping every financial and economic model in known existance.
Harvey took over at a similar opportune time.
His 2008 should have been much better than third last.No, he took over the oldest team in club history and pared the list back. Freo's team profile 2007-09 is roughly similar to the Bulldogs' 2010-12. It's difficult to win games while shedding veterans.
Harvey paid the price for one failed season, 2011.
Our teams under Harvey were still flakey, lucky dip football Ross calls it. Now we are anywhere, anytime, no excuses and I for one love it. Harvey is not in the same suburb, let alone ball park to Lyon as a coach.No, he took over the oldest team in club history and pared the list back. Freo's team profile 2007-09 is roughly similar to the Bulldogs' 2010-12. It's difficult to win games while shedding veterans.
Harvey paid the price for one failed season, 2011.
His 2008 should have been much better than third last.
I just don't buy the argument that Harvey copped it for one failed season.No more so than Watters is entitled to lift St.Kilda back into the eight next year. The list had run its race.
I just don't buy the argument that Harvey copped it for one failed season.
It's not just that we're happy with Lyon. By the end of Harvey's tenure he'd had negative records against coaches like Dean Bailey and your own club - which was by and large consistently younger and less experienced than the Freo sides he took up to them. His failure wasn't one season, it was lack of consistent performances across all seasons. Even in 2010 we had some inexplicably embarrassing losses. I just don't believe he was hard done by - he had an opportunity to end the loser attitude at Freo and by 2011 he just seemed to spend his time reinforcing it.I get it, you guys are happy with Lyon. Good luck in the finals, I'd rather see Freo have success than most of the others.
Disagree.No, he took over the oldest team in club history and pared the list back. Freo's team profile 2007-09 is roughly similar to the Bulldogs' 2010-12. Parker, Cook, the Carrs, McManus, Bell, Johnson, Farmer, Black, Solomon all played their final games in this period. It's difficult to win games while shedding veterans.
Harvey paid the price for one failed season, 2011. Most neutrals thought he'd done a good job until then.