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BuddysBiggestFan said:
Anyone got money tied to AVZ? There has to be a few on here. I have 10000 shares ($8.5K), which isn’t really that much. Is there any solution/verdict in sight?
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Seems like an absolute shit show. Hopefully the Chinese don’t steal this asset.
 

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DaRick said:
Wouldn't surprise me given that lithium is expected to boom until 2025.

RE the S&P 500, it's expected by Morgan Stanley/Seeking Alpha to bottom out between 3100-3400, but it could go as low as 3000 according to the Bank of America. Right now it's just below 3600.

The current inflationary period is going to be followed by deflation next year, so I plan to invest in tech, especially MSFT (which IMO will find a way to profit during the third gen tech boom due to their imperialistic practices), since that's deflationary. So is private equity.
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There's currently a bear market rally. From Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson:

The bottom line, as we begin the transition from Fire to Ice, falling inflation expectations could lead to a period of falling rates that may be interpreted by the equity market as bullish until the reality of what that means for earnings is fully revealed. Given the strong technical support just below current levels, stocks can continue to rally toward 4000-4150 in the absence of capitulation from companies on 2023 earnings. However, should rates remain sticky at current levels, all bets are off on how far this equity rally can go beyond current prices. Last week’s price action in stocks and bonds is supportive of this tactical view playing out to the upside. First, it’s remarkable to us that stocks were able to rally last week at all in the face of 10-year yields making 15-year highs. Right or wrong, the equity market is looking forward to rates falling with inflation next year. Second, Friday’s price action is indicative of just how off sides both stock and bond markets might be to a change in Fed policy that could be forthcoming at the Fed’s next meeting on Nov 1-2. As a result, we stay tactically bullish as we enter the meat of what is likely to be a sloppy earnings season. We just do not have confidence that there will be enough capitulation on 2023 earnings to take NTM EPS down in the manner that takes stocks to new lows right now. Instead, our base case is that happens in either December when holiday demand fails to materialize or during 4Q earnings season in January/February when companies are forced to discuss their outlooks for 2023.
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TLDR; Expected deflation is driving this bear market rally.

Because bear market rallies are (obviously) driven by bullish sentiment, I'd expect tech stocks to rise the most, since tech benefits from deflation more than most other sectors. Consumer discretionary, industrials and some materials have also fared quite well because those suffer more during inflation than deflation. Defensive stocks and dividend-paying companies should also hold their own. I don't expect real estate and financials to benefit so much.

I'd be using this bear market rally to sell off excessive consumer discretionary, industrial, material and tech holdings (keep to around 4-7% of your portfolio, with tech skewing higher and industrials being the lowest, just above real estate). Obviously keep real estate to a minimum (around 4% of your portfolio). Retain the defensive stocks and the dividend-paying stocks, especially the higher quality ones (quality outperforms during downturns) - unless they rise above 10% of your portfolio or so.

The SPX is currently 3850, so a further 5% rise is expected.
 
Just looking at trimming some LTR, bit of an arm wrestle going on at $2.

Agree with the above it's a bear market rally but could end up being quite strong running into Xmas. Maybe an opportunity to take some profits and raise cash an get a better price for losers that need shooting.
 
Mofra said:
Watching CXO like a hawk - potential for ann with Telsla for supply from NT in coming days
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Tomorrow apparently.

CXO has shot up since the CR but the market seems to be paused now hanging on this agreement.

Even if it doesn't go through CXO looks a good prospect.
 
RandB said:
Tomorrow apparently.

CXO has shot up since the CR but the market seems to be paused now hanging on this agreement.

Even if it doesn't go through CXO looks a good prospect.
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Yeah, no Tesla deal so the price is back in a ST range trading area. I didn't buy, I'm pretty cautious at the moment and stockpiling cash/paying down the margin loan (still in ~dozen or so DRPs though so still a net accumulator).
I already have some LLL so do have Lithium exposure in my portfolio.
 
If anyone hit up WA1 I congratulate you.

I saw it touted in a HC forum after it went up for a few days but let it go thinking it had run its course. It just kept on going up.

Shoulda, coulda, woulda the story of my investing life...
 
BuddysBiggestFan said:
Has the coal bubble burst?
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Nope but the media and politicians want you to think it has to cover their bullshit. McGowan has admitted he'll need to import coal to keep the lights on

Government budgeting for $60 ton coal pricing has scared people off but that will never happen again imo. They've banned exploration and new mines mostly, phillipines banning exportation of their coal, sanctions on Russia.

WHC are doing a 25% buy back which is nuts. YAL made 1.9B last quarter i think. CRN may be taken over by Peabody and just announced a special divvy paid in December of 0.21 which is pretty good.

I think coal is fine if you can stomach the fact funds arent allowed to invest in it (should be illegal that your super wont touch something so profitable) and media/Government will try to kill it off sacrificing its constituents in the process.

Price had a long run up, will have a breather and continue into the European winter.

Id love to hear why its over though, maybe i missed something. Still looks strong to me for a while yet
 

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Hu$tler said:
Curious post.

As a privileged only child i have two properties in my name obviously down the track.

They are average houses 450K ad 800k thanks too boom.

Should i be selling or thinking about flipping coz these prices in WA won't last and need to capatalise>>
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Yes, unless you're living in them and can't secure a decent residence fast enough.
 
Bank of America has said that the S&P 500 will bottom out in March/April/May 2023. (SPX = 3000 - 3600, mean prediction is around 3300). ASX should decline similarly, if only because coal stock owners will be selling profits.
 
DaRick said:
Bank of America has said that the S&P 500 will bottom out in March/April/May 2023. (SPX = 3000 - 3600, mean prediction is around 3300). ASX should decline similarly, if only because coal stock owners will be selling profits.
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I'm looking at throwing some money at ETF like Vanguard ect, first time investing and just want to diversify alittle.

So I should wait alittle before doing it?
 
HirdyLannister said:
I'm looking at throwing some money at ETF like Vanguard ect, first time investing and just want to diversify alittle.

So I should wait alittle before doing it?
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No one can answer this for you

Best time to start investing was before Amazon/bitcoin/Microsoft boomed. Next best is today

Time in the market > timing the market
 

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