Preview Gold Coast Swans vs Sydney Swans 7PM AEDT 18 Mar 23 @ Heritage Bank Stadium

[Kirkswan]

Suns finished H&A last year at 12th with 10 wins and 102%.

We on the other hand, finished 3rd with 16 wins and 127%.

While I'm expecting them to improve, I'm not expecting us to drop off... I'm reckoning we'll be going out this year with something to prove.

This will be the year our cygnets turn into men, and learn to crush other teams whenever the opportunity arises!

So look out Suns! 'Ware the angry Swan!

Swans by 40+!!!

 

[wills2g]

Please Horse, no negating role in the midfield this time. Got ******* killed in the mids by this mob because of it last year, and that was without Anderson playing.

Only concern is whether T. McCartin will get monstered by King. Let's hope he's in good form to start the season, he's in for a big one methinks.

Watching Mills on Touk with both doing nothing all game was infuriating. I don't think we'll see that this time around.

I can't see GC winning this game. From Horse's presser he's going to let the not so young guns take over so I have more faith in keeping up with GC speed and spread towards defence but then hurt them much more on the attack

 

[the hypnotoad]

WELCOME BACK EVERYBODY!

Last game of 2022 did not go as we all want as Geelong steam rolled us in the GF. Onwards and upward I suppose...

Last time we played:

No ifs or buts, Gold Coast are our boogey side. Whenever we play them, there is always a chance that we are gonna get rolled. Likely, due to a master coaching session for Stuie Dew who definitely ate the second stick of gum that Violet Beauregard was unable to locate.

Recent history:

L W L L W

We last played GC Round 8 in 2022 in which we lost the match by 14 points GC 10.15 75 to Swans 8.13 61. GC were led by Ellis, Fiorini and Swallow with Mills, Blakey and Lloyd being the top disposal getters for this match. The suns overran us in the last, in what was ultimately a poor outing with the swans, however we got a glimpse of what the Chad could potentially become.

Our Opponent: The Suns

Likely best 22:

Backs: Sean Lemmens, Sam Collins, Jake Stein

Half-backs: Brandon Ellis, Charlie Ballard, David Swallow

Centres: Jack Lukosius, Matt Rowell, Wil Powell

Followers: Jarrod Witts (c), Noah Anderson, Touk Miller (c)

Half-forwards: Elijah Hollands, Mabior Chol, Ben Ainsworth

Forwards: Joel Jeffrey, Ben King, Malcolm Rosas

Interchange: Tom Berry, Sam Flanders, Bailey Humphrey, Ben Long

Substitute: Jeremy Sharp

GC has teased and flirted with the footballing world being filled with what is an abhorrently dirty word in sports circles, “potential”. They do play very attractive footy and when they are on, they are on. However, when they are not, they get absolutely mauled. The highs and lows have somewhat stabilised over the years, however it is still noticeable enough that they cannot really be called a consistent footy team. 2023 is meant to be where the Suns turns a corner and honestly it feels like it.

Swans last game:

Pass.

New season, not a particularly new Swans with the only move we made to trade in a player being Francis who currently, does not look like featuring in round 1. Outside of some draft pick shenanigans, I do not see any of our recruits debuting in round 1 either so a proposed best 22 (thank you caesar88 for having a best 22 that was exactly like mine):

B - Dane Rampe - Tom McCartin - Nick Blakey

HB - Jake Lloyd - Paddy McCartin - Ollie Florent

C - Dylan Stephens - Errol Gulden - Justin McInerney

HF - Isaac Heeney - Logan McDonald - Sam Reid

F - Tom Papley - Buddy Franklin - Will Hayward

Foll - Peter Ladhams - Callum Mills - James Rowbottom

I/C - Luke Parker, Chad Warner, Braeden Campbell, Harry Cunningham

Sub - Matty Roberts

Ins: McDonald, Ladhams, Campbell and Cunningham

Outs: McLean, Hickey, Fox and Clarke

I actually think that the inclusions make us better. As much as I love RJ, I feel that Ladhams will give us a boost in the middle if he can keep it together. Likewise, McDonald and Cunningham are improvements over Mclean and Clarke. Fox is a loss and is not a 1 for 1 for Campbell but if I were to choose now, it would be Fox no doubt.

Match ups:

The Ruck
New year, same discussion about the Swans – how is our ruck going to function? Ladhams, no doubt showed he could do the number one job. The issue is in between the ears. To be fair, we do forget he is only 25 and should be coming into his own in the ruck very shortly. Now, he will have his hands full in combatting Witts who, IMO, is one of top five rucks in the league when he is up and running. Feeding the ball directly to GC mids will exacerbate our poor CC and give them quick entry. Ladhams needs to nullify this contest at a minimum.

Ben King vs TMac

Ben King is the better King out of the twins. Fight me.

However, he is returning from an injury and missing the 2022 season which may cause him to be rusty. However, TMac has struggled on the bigger forwards of late (Hopefully Levi does not play for GC). I expect Rampe to take on Chol with Paddy intercepting as required. Could be a relatively tricky day, especially as Ben is/was the more athletic of the Kings.

Players of interest:

Swans:

Gulden

Really could not be anyone else after his preseason outings. It was going to be Campbell but after Gulden’s form, has to be picked. What I saw of him in the guts was beautiful. In and under, clean and neat disposal, hitting the scoreboard it was awesome. So where do we play him… in the guts. Horse, I beg of you. Leave this man in the middle more often than not. Rowbottom, Parker Mills and Gulden feeding it out to Warner, Stephens, Blakey and Jmac… dreams. And looking at that, our midfield and HFF mix looks to be pretty much set with any of Mills, Parker and Gulden able to sit in the position.

So yeah, fairly high on Gulden


TL;DR – Swans to start well and surprise the board by winning vs GC first game

Swans by 24 points

*will put up pretty pictures later
** if we lose atleast I got my losing preview out of the way

what could be downward!?!

 

[Pugnacious1874]

I just think probability of injury, and looking for run late means you go tall and sub is a small/medium 9/10 times

So McLean in, Campbell? sub.

One of the tall forwards (Bud?) off at 3qtr time if no injuries or even just benched for rotation purposes if we have to sub out injured small.

(BTW. Happy 2023 all. Just woken from hibernation after last year's Robbie Williams concert)

 

[Donza]

Going to be weird watching this during a mid 30s heatwave. *in Sydney.

Will feel odd.


Just hope we're impressive. Do enough. Then move on.

This match is entirely off the radar for the footy media. Will be great to just bank a professional win.

Statement wins can happen later.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

3-2 GC way in the last 5 games played.

They have a method that is proven and works against us.

Some of those have been very costly losses.

 

[Nuggetz]

Excellent preview. I wouldn't be surprised to see Warner & possibly Mills spend a bit of time up forward.

 

[Gimmeafree]

Great start, undefeated thus far.

 

[mattpolo8]

Mister B i'm flying up for this. But with Qantas cuz I refuse to fly Jetstar ever again.

Pretty keen for this. Part of my quest to tick off attending all the main footy stadiums.
Reckon we make a bit of a statement here. 40+

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I’ve long tried to figure out why GC are our bogey side.

I don’t think it’s Dew’s insight.

Instead, I believe it’s because they have a lot of light-framed, fleet footed players that have exposed our relative lack of pace.

We have a bit more speed these days, so I’m hoping the days of “how the hell did that happen?!” debacles might be over.

 

[caesar88]

I’ve long tried to figure out why GC are our bogey side.

I don’t think it’s Dew’s insight.

Instead, I believe it’s because they have a lot of light-framed, fleet footed players that have exposed our relative lack of pace.

We have a bit more speed these days, so I’m hoping the days of “how the hell did that happen?!” debacles might be over.

I disagree. Speed doesn't trouble us anymore. When we lose, we lose the same way every single time - in the contest. Second to too many balls, not laying enough effective tackles, not getting enough ball out from tackles, allowing the opposition to get too much easy ball out.

Rinse and repeat.

Gold Coast are brilliant in the contest against us because they know they can be. They don't have the cumulative unrelated losses against other teams to use as reference points like they do against us.

Against us, they can say, "Hey, remember in 2018 when the Swans were 30-something up and then got so complacent they let us kick 11 goals to 2 after that on their home deck?"

Against us, they can say, "Hey, remember in 2020 when the Swans were actually younger than us and we gave them their equal-2nd biggest loss of that year on their home deck?"

Against us, they can say, "Hey, remember in 2021 when we let the Swans main midfield of Kennedy, Parker, Mills and Warner get a combined 135 touches and they did nothing with them?"

And I'm sure this week they will be saying, "Hey, remember in 2022 when we were without Anderson but the Swans were still worried enough to send a tagger to Miller, and it didn't make a difference?"

So where against other teams, that fight and grit might not be at 100% because the end goal of getting the win seems that little bit too unattainable, against us? Well that's not such a steep mountain to climb. So fight, scrap, brawl and what happened last time, and the time before it, and the time before that, will happen again.

That's why we were able to conjure an 87 point victory over them in the final round of the 2021 season - they didn't care enough. Minds were probably already on the Noosa holidays they had booked.

So we really need to show that we care more than them, and that this win would mean more to us than it would to them. All eyes on the contest in this game IMO.

 

[anotherletdown]

I think we should win but it's Gold Coast so that drains some of my confidence. I tip a draw.

 

[Kirkswan]

All those citing the last five games,

2019 - Round 15 - Swans v Suns - 93 - 51
2020 - Round 7 - Swans v Suns - 60 - 92
2021 - Round 6 - Swans v Suns - 60 - 100
2021 - Round 23 - Swans v Suns - 136 - 49 (Marvel)
2022 - Round 8 - Swans v Suns - 61 - 75

So in my view, 2019 and 2020 are realistic reflections of where we were and where the Suns were at the time, with only the last round being a problem.

2021 and 2022 are reflections of a young team, they are going to have some blinders, but also some huge blunders! Don't forget how young our guys were then, how inexperienced, no/aging ruck, no Buddy and a few others...

But these guys are past all this now, and mostly I expect there to be much less inconsistency this year.

PS. For those who persist that the Suns are our bogey team, be thankful that it's a 12 - 16 team, and not a top 8 team, otherwise a 4 point loss could result in an 8 point turn around!

 

[Kiama Chris]

Following last year's whole season form lines Swans by around 3 goals (95-77) and needing to work hard for it. There won't be too many easy games this year and this won't be one of them.

 

[BloodySwan]

So McLean in, Campbell? sub.

One of the tall forwards (Bud?) off at 3qtr time if no injuries or even just benched for rotation purposes if we have to sub out injured small.

(BTW. Happy 2023 all. Just woken from hibernation after last year's Robbie Williams concert)

Apart from being tall I don't think McLean has shown enough this preseason to be selected over Campbell

 

[Donza]

I think this season is the season that Campbell will go from a a bit player with potential to a A grader.

He just looks more bulky and assured during the pre-season .

Plus he has a 105mm howitzer left.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I disagree. Speed doesn't trouble us anymore. When we lose, we lose the same way every single time - in the contest. Second to too many balls, not laying enough effective tackles, not getting enough ball out from tackles, allowing the opposition to get too much easy ball out.

Rinse and repeat.

Gold Coast are brilliant in the contest against us because they know they can be. They don't have the cumulative unrelated losses against other teams to use as reference points like they do against us.

Against us, they can say, "Hey, remember in 2018 when the Swans were 30-something up and then got so complacent they let us kick 11 goals to 2 after that on their home deck?"

Against us, they can say, "Hey, remember in 2020 when the Swans were actually younger than us and we gave them their equal-2nd biggest loss of that year on their home deck?"

Against us, they can say, "Hey, remember in 2021 when we let the Swans main midfield of Kennedy, Parker, Mills and Warner get a combined 135 touches and they did nothing with them?"

And I'm sure this week they will be saying, "Hey, remember in 2022 when we were without Anderson but the Swans were still worried enough to send a tagger to Miller, and it didn't make a difference?"

So where against other teams, that fight and grit might not be at 100% because the end goal of getting the win seems that little bit too unattainable, against us? Well that's not such a steep mountain to climb. So fight, scrap, brawl and what happened last time, and the time before it, and the time before that, will happen again.

That's why we were able to conjure an 87 point victory over them in the final round of the 2021 season - they didn't care enough. Minds were probably already on the Noosa holidays they had booked.

So we really need to show that we care more than them, and that this win would mean more to us than it would to them. All eyes on the contest in this game IMO.

In the games we’ve lost, my observation was that the Suns just seemed to have space in transition. I put it down to speed - but perhaps it was lack of pressure and intensity. Or both.

And no-name Suns just seem to have career best games against us. Which is infuriating.

I’m normally confident going into games these days - but this one, not so much.

 

[Keystone agony]

TMAC, PMAC, Rampe, Blakey, Lloyd, B.Campbell, Florent

J.Mcirney, Mills, Stephens
Ladhams, Parker, Warner, Rowbottom, Gulden

3 talls, Hayward, Heeney, Papley, Cunningham

Sub: Roberts/Tall/Sheldrick/Rankin in order

Will be the side

 

[Jewelsbon]

(BTW. Happy 2023 all. Just woken from hibernation after last year's Robbie Williams concert)

Yep, bloody good concert that, albeit very short!
I thought something else of importance happened that day but for the life of me I can't think what it was

Sorry Bedders, off topic......

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I hope Horse considers using McAndrew or McLean as the sub. If Ladhams gets injured we would have Reid, Reid and Reid. If Reid, we would have Ladhams alone. Both Ladhams and Reid had restricted preseasons. I don't normally favour using a debutant as a sub but in this case.....

If you use a ruck as the sub you should head to the nearest you know what place. Just know. Running players only.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yep, bloody good concert that, albeit very short!
I thought something else of importance happened that day but for the life of me I can't think what it was

Sorry Bedders, off topic......

Well at least it's not Harry Styles lol

 

[Bloods86]

Cunningham to sub and McLean or McAndrew into the 22

Won't happen. We'll run with 3 KPFs, 1 ruck (with one of the KPFs being the backup). That'll be Buddy, Reid, Logan (hopefully) and Ladhams.

It's been a long time since we went with 5 KPF/Rucks, and the only variation we do of the above is having one less, rather than an extra.

 

[caesar88]

Won't happen. We'll run with 3 KPFs, 1 ruck (with one of the KPFs being the backup). That'll be Buddy, Reid, Logan (hopefully) and Ladhams.

It's been a long time since we went with 5 KPF/Rucks, and the only variation we do of the above is having one less, rather than an extra.

Yeah no idea why we'd tinker with the structure that's worked for us over the last two seasons.

 

[caesar88]

Yep, bloody good concert that, albeit very short!
I thought something else of importance happened that day but for the life of me I can't think what it was

Sorry Bedders, off topic......

You missed the halftime performance of 'Solid Rock' then!

I'd give it a 10/10. Gave me great solace knowing the Swans didn't have the worst performance of the day after all.

 

[Ticky009]

Mister B i'm flying up for this. But with Qantas cuz I refuse to fly Jetstar ever again.

Pretty keen for this. Part of my quest to tick off attending all the main footy stadiums.
Reckon we make a bit of a statement here. 40+

Haha - I have the same list. Only WA & this one left to tick off.