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[Stubz]

The 'certain number' is formally known as the magic number. Its basically a multiplier/constant and this year it was 4437, but it is likely to change next year. The magic number also flattens out as the season progresses, making players needing to average higher than last years average to break-even.

 

[SkankDanker]

I think I read recently somewhere that they times everyones average for the year buy a certain number(I think it was around 4400)so someone with an average of 100 would cost 440,000.

That's spot on Jonny27.

There was a No Passengers thread stickied earlier this year - as the season draws to a close I guess we could consider putting it back there, even though there were some modifications to the discount methods.

I'll see if I can organise something.

 

[Jonny27]

I am currently Bigfooty Apprentice(When my yellow card isnt there)how do i become bigfooty member?

 

[footycool]

I am currently Bigfooty Apprentice(When my yellow card isnt there)how do i become bigfooty member?

same, when does the yellow card go away?

 

[Jonny27]

same, when does the yellow card go away?

Mine was for a week so on wednesday.

 

[footycool]

Mine was for a week so on wednesday.

same

 

[senrulzisback]

same, when does the yellow card go away?

Have a look at the bottom of your "My Bigfooty" page.

 

[1 Million]

I seem to be having a little problem down there...

Yep, my rucks are stuffed.

My 'Big Cox' disappeared for 2 weeks and when he came back he was preforming below par. Now i find out that it may be gone again for an extended period !!

What should i do with the big fella?

I may have to cut him loose...

 

[iamthestig]

Yellow card goes away when it expires. I thought it was a week but the mods may be able to alter the length.

Becoming a member is based on the number of posts - or at least it used to be. 100 posts on BF but as mentioned above that may have changed. Not sure if DT/SC posts count. Wasn't always the case but again as mentioned above that may have changed.

 

[Jab]

I have 3 questions and I hope this is the right thread foir it. Can someone please tell me:

b) how long do you have to be a member of the site to be able to start new threads?

Starting a new thread in based on the number of posts. You need 50 posts to start a new thread and for your "status" to change.

0-50 posts = newbie
51-199 = Big Footy Apprentice
200- ??? (I think 5000) = Big footy member.

Quantity not quality counts unfortunately, but it has to be that way.

Hope that helps

And good work on posting that in the right thread

 

[Jonny27]

Yellow card goes away when it expires. I thought it was a week but the mods may be able to alter the length.

Becoming a member is based on the number of posts - or at least it used to be. 100 posts on BF but as mentioned above that may have changed. Not sure if DT/SC posts count. Wasn't always the case but again as mentioned above that may have changed.

Well I dont have too many post that arent on the DT thread, does the cricket board count?

 

[enTYSd]

The 'certain number' is formally known as the magic number. Its basically a multiplier/constant and this year it was 4437, but it is likely to change next year. The magic number also flattens out as the season progresses, making players needing to average higher than last years average to break-even.

ok, but two more questions.

is it the average for the player from last year only, or taking into account whether it was their first year or if they had been struck by injury or...? so basically, just the previous years average?

and also, when is this magic number announced? obviously tough for anyone to know a specific date, but is it before dt becomes open or just on the first day its open?

sorry for being so specific, just hadn't really realised dt was so indepth until this year and looking for improvements next year.

 

[iamthestig]

Well I dont have too many post that arent on the DT thread, does the cricket board count?

No idea. You have 370 posts so I guess that not enough of them are in non-DT threads. I don't know what number you need other than it used to be 100.

 

[iamthestig]

ok, but two more questions.

is it the average for the player from last year only, or taking into account whether it was their first year or if they had been struck by injury or...? so basically, just the previous years average?

and also, when is this magic number announced? obviously tough for anyone to know a specific date, but is it before dt becomes open or just on the first day its open?

sorry for being so specific, just hadn't really realised dt was so indepth until this year and looking for improvements next year.

There will be many many posts/threads about exactly that in the off season but it is directly related to the average from last year and VS apply discounts to some.

Bradd Dalziell was priced as a premium this year despite only playing 7 games @ 100ish average the year before.

 

[Juddy88]

same, when does the yellow card go away?

Please don't take this guys yellow away, he'll be able to create threads then..

 

[Teh_Nub]

Where is the list of teams that avg the most points scored against them?

 

[Lakey91]

ok, but two more questions.

is it the average for the player from last year only, or taking into account whether it was their first year or if they had been struck by injury or...? so basically, just the previous years average?

and also, when is this magic number announced? obviously tough for anyone to know a specific date, but is it before dt becomes open or just on the first day its open?

sorry for being so specific, just hadn't really realised dt was so indepth until this year and looking for improvements next year.

MN can just be derived from a players price. The first prices we gennerally get a look at are in the prospectus - a fantasy football guide (actually a 400 page book) produced by virtualsports and the fantasy freako which has a couple of sample teams with the included players prices.

The starting price of a player at the beginning of a season is simply derived as:

Magic Number x Average of the player in previous year.

So, someone averaging 100 in 2008, was thus priced in 2009 as:

4438 (2009 MN) x 100 = $443800

Just for interests sake, here are the most recent starting magic numbers:

2009 - 4438 +2.2%
2008 - 4343 +10.6%
2007 - 3927 - 5.5%
2006 - 4156 +13%
2005 - 3676 +8.8%
2004 - 3376

In 2010, i would probably expect another increase to around 4550 (as the DT salary cap is set to rise in line with the official salary cap), however it could rise much further (8-10%) like it has previously. The starting MN is purely at the discretion of virtualsports.

EDIT:

However, some players get discounted if they have missed the whole season, or large portions of the season (ie they only played 3-4 games). Their price is most often either discounted by 10%, 20%, 30% or 42% depending on their average and how many games they have played.

This should probably all be in a new thread, but anyway.

For interests sale (i hope your interested!), this is how a players current price is calculated:

75% comes from their price in the previous round
25% comes from the MN*3 round rolling average

To do this however, the current MN must be found (its found during this process) - yes thats right, the MN isnt constant, it changes each week (not entirely sure how or why, but i believe its due to the pool of scoring and player price fluctuations - can anyone elaborate on this?).

Now, i will calculate a players price/current MN for you just to show this:

Scott Thompson
Round 14 Price = 406500
Round 15 Price = 399200
3 Round Rolling Average = 98

Hence,
399200 = 0.75*406500 + 0.25*MN*98

(Remembering current price = 75% of old price + 25% of MN*3 round rolling average)

399200 = 304875 + MN*24.5
94325 = MN*24.5
94325/24.5 = MN
Current MN = about 3850

Double check on graham johncock:
Round 14 Price = 305600
Round 15 Price = 316500
3 Round Rolling Average = 89

316500 = 0.75*305600 + 0.25*3850*89
316500 = 314862.50 (Close enough!)

So the magic number is currently around 3850. I calculated it earlier in the year when someone asked a similar sort of question (or maybe i was just curious?) and it was around 3450 from memory (much lower than i ever expected it would fall). So yeh, it changes.

Hope that makes things alot clearer on how player prices are set and then how they change!

Cheers.

 

[enTYSd]

MN can just be derived from a players price. The first prices we gennerally get a look at are in the prospectus - a fantasy football guide (actually a 400 page book) produced by virtualsports and the fantasy freako which has a couple of sample teams with the included players prices.

The starting price of a player at the beginning of a season is simply derived as:

Magic Number x Average of the player in previous year.

So, someone averaging 100 in 2008, was thus priced in 2009 as:

4438 (2009 MN) x 100 = $443800

Just for interests sake, here are the most recent starting magic numbers:

2009 - 4438 +2.2%
2008 - 4343 +10.6%
2007 - 3927 - 5.5%
2006 - 4156 +13%
2005 - 3676 +8.8%
2004 - 3376

In 2010, i would probably expect another increase to around 4550 (as the DT salary cap is set to rise in line with the official salary cap), however it could rise much further (8-10%) like it has previously. The starting MN is purely at the discretion of virtualsports.

EDIT:

However, some players get discounted if they have missed the whole season, or large portions of the season (ie they only played 3-4 games). Their price is most often either discounted by 10%, 20%, 30% or 42% depending on their average and how many games they have played.

This should probably all be in a new thread, but anyway.

For interests sale (i hope your interested!), this is how a players current price is calculated:

75% comes from their price in the previous round
25% comes from the MN*3 round rolling average

To do this however, the current MN must be found (its found during this process) - yes thats right, the MN isnt constant, it changes each week (not entirely sure how or why, but i believe its due to the pool of scoring and player price fluctuations - can anyone elaborate on this?).

Now, i will calculate a players price/current MN for you just to show this:

Scott Thompson
Round 14 Price = 406500
Round 15 Price = 399200
3 Round Rolling Average = 98

Hence,
399200 = 0.75*406500 + 0.25*MN*98

(Remembering current price = 75% of old price + 25% of MN*3 round rolling average)

399200 = 304875 + MN*24.5
94325 = MN*24.5
94325/24.5 = MN
Current MN = about 3850

Double check on graham johncock:
Round 14 Price = 305600
Round 15 Price = 316500
3 Round Rolling Average = 89

316500 = 0.75*305600 + 0.25*3850*89
316500 = 314862.50 (Close enough!)

So the magic number is currently around 3850. I calculated it earlier in the year when someone asked a similar sort of question (or maybe i was just curious?) and it was around 3450 from memory (much lower than i ever expected it would fall). So yeh, it changes.

Hope that makes things alot clearer on how player prices are set and then how they change!

Cheers.

in all honesty, that as quite simply amazing.
superb, thanks.

 

[Walesy]

To do this however, the current MN must be found (its found during this process) - yes thats right, the MN isnt constant, it changes each week (not entirely sure how or why, but i believe its due to the pool of scoring and player price fluctuations - can anyone elaborate on this?).

The "magic number" doesn't actually change technically.

However, for all intents and purposes, it does.

The Magic Number is a constant in that particular calculation. However, once everyone has had their new salaries calculated, the league total salary is brought down (or up) to match a league total salary.

Essentially, the calculation works exactly the same if you just change that magic number to a lesser number (or greater) by dividing that number by the same ratio the total salary would have moved.

This is why the magic number drops so substantially in the first few week. Because rookies salaries a climbing fast and bringing the leagues total salary *way* higher than it first started.

 

[Stubz]

ok, but two more questions.

is it the average for the player from last year only, or taking into account whether it was their first year or if they had been struck by injury or...? so basically, just the previous years average?

and also, when is this magic number announced? obviously tough for anyone to know a specific date, but is it before dt becomes open or just on the first day its open?

sorry for being so specific, just hadn't really realised dt was so indepth until this year and looking for improvements next year.

I would of answered this had I of seen it in time, but I really don't think I have much to add on top of Lakey91/Walesy's excellent explanations.

I'll add this though, when you try and use the magic number plus a player's average (no discounts) to calculate a player's starting price, I've found that it rarely ever gives or even gets remotely close to the exact price that VS sets at the start of the year.

As far as I'm aware (this may only be the case in SC) most players averages, discounted or not, are tinkered to some extent by VS for some reason. Due to this I can never get my estimated starting price to be reasonably close to VS real starting price when using the: (magic number) * (players previous year average) formula. Can anyone shed some light on this as I'm assuming it is the same in SC as it is in DT.

 

[Walesy]

You can generally get it fairly close (with the exception of the discounts), but there is definitely some varience worked in there that I haven't had the time to look into yet.

One major difference between the two comps though is this.

Supercoach uses the same magic number from year to year, which makes it much easier to calculate the next year.

Dreamteam however chances theirs' on a year to year basis due to the fact that the salary cap is adjusted to reflect real life. (though the change in the magic number doesn't seem to correlate overly strongly with the change in the salary number... just that both tend to trend upwards...)

 

[Lakey91]

I would of answered this had I of seen it in time, but I really don't think I have much to add on top of Lakey91/Walesy's excellent explanations.

I'll add this though, when you try and use the magic number plus a player's average (no discounts) to calculate a player's starting price, I've found that it rarely ever gives or even gets remotely close to the exact price that VS sets at the start of the year.

As far as I'm aware (this may only be the case in SC) most players averages, discounted or not, are tinkered to some extent by VS for some reason. Due to this I can never get my estimated starting price to be reasonably close to VS real starting price when using the: (magic number) * (players previous year average) formula. Can anyone shed some light on this as I'm assuming it is the same in SC as it is in DT.

VS do round to the nearest $100, but im sure this isnt what you are referring too?

I think you are probably just using the wrong MN in your initial calculations - ie a MN different to the one used by VS. The only way to get the correct MN at the beginning of each year is from either the prospectus (comes out late february from memory) or from the prices when DT actually opens (makes it pointless as you then have all the prices anyway!).

So, im sure you are just using a different MN to that of virtualsports (maybe?)

This years MN was ~4438, and when you multiply that by players 2008 averages, it comes out almost exactly as their 2009 starting price.

So, hmmm, not sure what went wrong?

Anyways, i hope all this answers the original question.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Just while we are on the topic of the MN and the total price pool i did some calculations in an excel document at the start of the year and found that the total player price pool (TPPP) was 161,992,400 (Thats assuming my excels 'sum' function is working properly!).

By my count (excel's) there are 733 current AFL players so the average starting price for 'player x' this year was (161,992,400/733) 220,999.181 etc which is an average player average of (220,999.181etc/4438) 49.797etc. This 'average player average' is noticably deflated because rookies who haven't played yet and some exceptions [M.Brown, Gumbleton, Hentschell, Egan etc] were priced at an average of anywhere from $150,600 (Watts) to $75,300 - 33.934etc (Watts) to 16.967etc (Rookie listed players).

So to relate this to what Walesy was saying earlier - after each round the total player price pool should be $161,992,400 (Assuming that is correct) - therefore every playing players 'actual new price' will be deflated by whatever percentage the new player price pool exceeds the magic $161,992,400 mark.

*Note the 'actual new price' refers to a players pricing point after completed a round which is calculated by the formular Lakey stated*

75% of old price x 25% of [MN (4438) x 3 round rolling avg]

 

[Walesy]

This is actually where the "Guns lose value" theory came from.

Essentially if a player finishes the year on the same average they started, they will cop roughly a 10% decrease in value over that time because of the above curve.

Which reminds me... I need to dig up that pre-season favorite of a thread - The Dean Cox thread... It had a lot of this stuff in there, essentially as a counter arguement to getting Cox.

 

[Stubz]

VS do round to the nearest $100, but im sure this isnt what you are referring too?

I think you are probably just using the wrong MN in your initial calculations - ie a MN different to the one used by VS. The only way to get the correct MN at the beginning of each year is from either the prospectus (comes out late february from memory) or from the prices when DT actually opens (makes it pointless as you then have all the prices anyway!).

So, im sure you are just using a different MN to that of virtualsports (maybe?)

This years MN was ~4438, and when you multiply that by players 2008 averages, it comes out almost exactly as their 2009 starting price.

So, hmmm, not sure what went wrong?

Anyways, i hope all this answers the original question.

Cheers Lakey91 I checked over my answer like a good mathematician should and found out were I went wrong.

The magic numbers are the multipliers FFGenie uses yeah? That is 5386/4437 SC/DT, interestingly I've used to have a look at this multiplier/MN a fair bit round by round when stats on FFGenie used to be manually imported. As stated above I'm pretty sure the change in this number was due to TPP due to rookies increasing at a greater proportion than premiums decreasing/increasing

In SC the player's prices are arbitrary as when I transpose the formula with one unknown the magic number is different for each player, very interesting as to why this is the case. *Who said maths/algebra was completely useless in the real world?*

The basic formula I use is for calculating the 2009 starting price is:
Player's starting price = (magic number) * (2008 average)

For the sake of it I used exact values (ie. total points/games played) to find the most accurate average, but I'll round to two decimal players some I don't have half a million digits due to recurring decimals. note: these players havn't recieved any discounts.

EDIT: After some basic year 7 mathematics (oh the good ol' days) I just realised that the reason why the magic number was slightly different for each player was a result of a discrepancy between the way I rounded and the way VS does (not sure how they do there's exactly). But I used the exact values for the averages/starting price and the estimation of the MN from FFGenie. VS probably have their own system of working out their prices, but I got within $1K/2 units each time I tried calculating prices/magic numbers, which is close enough to suggest that they are using a constant.