Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

Do you believe?

  • Yes, I have faith! We'll be much much better this year.

    Votes: 56 83.6%

  • No, we're ratshit and I can't see us improving anytime soon. Play the kids.

    Votes: 11 16.4%
  • Total voters
    67

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Can anyone explain how the Average Net Margin differs from the Average Margin?

Mathematically, is this implying

Ave(SF-SA) =/= Ave(SF-SA) kind of thing?

Aut's away
 
Last edited:
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the...7/news-story/930292b83f6fe7514bcbc9a453440a23
The intense forward half pressure that has Port Adelaide back in form in 2017



eight rounds in, Port Adelaide has managed to re-establish itself as one of the league’s most fearsome attacking units.

The key to its success? A massive lift in forward half pressure.

The Power have averaged a remarkable 65 points from forward half chains this season, ranked number one in the competition — and a huge increase on 2016, when they ranked sixth, with 47 points.

On top of this, Port Adelaide’s press has seen it average 29 forward half intercepts (up from 25 in 2016) and 35 forward half stoppages (up from 33) per game — topping the league in both stats.

But most importantly, the Power now averages 10:01 minutes more in its forward half than its opposition —
 
A Look at For and Against xScore Percentages (Basically discusses the Saints but some interesting mentions of Port in here)
….Port, the Crows and GWS have the three highest percentages. It would be hard to argue that those three don't look eminently capable of winning the flag, even considering recent setbacks. Good teams are usually on top for longer and rack up bigger percentages in the process.However, one shortfall of looking at percentage alone is that percentage is a product of goal kicking accuracy, which as I have written about many times before, tends to be highly variable for even the best players. A team may be playing perfect footy, restricting their opponents to only the toughest of shots, but if they keep nailing them from 50 out on the boundary, your percentage is going to take a hit through no fault of your own.
A solution to this is to look at the xScore percentage rather than the actual score percentage. Actual score percentage is the percentage ratio of points scored to points conceded. The xScore percentage is the percentage ratio of quality of chances created to quality of chances conceded assuming each chance is kicked at the AFL average for a shot of that type and position on the field.

Looking at the xScore percentage through the first 8 rounds of the year2 we can see a slightly different ordering.


Port Adelaide are a clear number 1 in both measures3, but it's the Saint's which make the most notable rise up the rankings under the new metric. They've created the 4th best xScore in the competition and conceded the 4th lowest. Conversion, both for and against has hid some of that dominance.
For long term success you'd much rather be creating lots of good chances and losing the odd game than becoming reliant on your fowards kicking arrows to win you the game.
http://figuringfooty.com/2017/05/18/are-st-kilda-a-sleeping-giant/
 
More on ExpScore..this is a really good website

A team that has been under-performing their ExpScore can be expected to improve their accuracy in the future. This may result in more wins than we would have otherwise expected.

Similarly, if a team's opponent's have been significantly outperforming their ExpScore, we can expect this to come down in the following weeks and for the team to be broadly more competitive on the scoreboard in the future.

The Goal-Kicking Accuracy Fallacy

Every Club in the AFL Kicks at Roughly the Same Levelhttp://figuringfooty.com/2016/07/07/the-goal-kicking-accuracy-fallacy/
 
Janus must have said something very offensive for the Crows mods to have banned him for this long. Anyone know if they've put a hit out on him
 

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ESPN bullish on Port's top 4 chances.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/19406533/footy-forensics-afl-which-afl-teams-play-finals

r210495_1199x799_3-2.png


r210308_1295x863_3-2.png


Their dominant display at Jiangwan Stadium leaves the Power rated right alongside the Dogs, Eagles and Cats, a group of teams that each has realistic top-four aspirations. Their September chances will still remain well north of 50 percent no matter what happens over their next couple of matches.
 
Ford Fairlane said:
ESPN bullish on Port's top 4 chances.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/19406533/footy-forensics-afl-which-afl-teams-play-finals

r210495_1199x799_3-2.png


r210308_1295x863_3-2.png


Their dominant display at Jiangwan Stadium leaves the Power rated right alongside the Dogs, Eagles and Cats, a group of teams that each has realistic top-four aspirations. Their September chances will still remain well north of 50 percent no matter what happens over their next couple of matches.
Click to expand...
That was written by The Arc who is mattsea on big footy.
 
OneGreatClub said:
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the...7/news-story/930292b83f6fe7514bcbc9a453440a23
The intense forward half pressure that has Port Adelaide back in form in 2017

Eight rounds in, Port Adelaide has managed to re-establish itself as one of the league’s most fearsome attacking units.

The key to its success? A massive lift in forward half pressure.

The Power have averaged a remarkable 65 points from forward half chains this season, ranked number one in the competition — and a huge increase on 2016, when they ranked sixth, with 47 points.

On top of this, Port Adelaide’s press has seen it average 29 forward half intercepts (up from 25 in 2016) and 35 forward half stoppages (up from 33) per game — topping the league in both stats.

But most importantly, the Power now averages 10:01 minutes more in its forward half than its opposition —
Click to expand...

Good article. People who don't think Jarman Impey is in our best 22 have rocks in their head.
 
Schulzenfest said:
Good article. People who don't think Jarman Impey is in our best 22 have rocks in their head.
Click to expand...

I was very critical when Ken said Impey was a first 22 player at the beginning of the year but now I definitely see it. He's earnt his spot now.
 
Here's another statistic:
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how...m/news-story/1c9d3e4c2c1b1088f34d795b4cde517f
The Power, in particular, are expected to jump up, ranking fifth with on 13.8 wins. They are given an 82.7 per cent chance of playing finals in 2017.

That is for a number of reasons. Port Adelaide has had the best ladder percentage of any non-finalist in consecutive seasons, suggesting they’re better than most think.
 
At the end of R9:

upload_2017-5-23_17-31-9.png
There's like one stand out team (us), who didn't even play this week, a whole bunch of pretenders (GWS due to injuries, Adelaide due to their crap game plan that can't stand up under pressure, and Geelong due to lack of talent) and then this kaleidoscope of crap sides. At least Richmond has something approaching a premiership defensive setup. That's why anyone can beat anyone - the more homogenized tactics become, the harder it is to stand out from the crowd. If Eade didn't see the thrashing we gave his shit side coming, he should have looked at this graph before hand, because Port hasn't left the premiership zone all year.

At the conclusion of R9, Port Adelaide ranked:

1st in Least Opponent points per game
1st in Inside 50s per game
1st in Least Opponent Inside 50s per game
1st in Least Opponent Goal Assists per game
1st in Least Opponent Marks Inside 50 per game
1st in Team to Opponent Inside 50s per game differential
1st in Team to Opponent Goal Assists per game differential
1st in Team to Opponent Points per game differential

2nd in Points per game
2nd in Goal Assists per game
2nd in Clearances per game
2nd in One Percenters per game
2ns in Least Opponent Tackles per game
2nd in Team to Opponent Marks Inside 50 per game differential
2nd in Team to Opponent One Percenters per game differential

3rd in Kicks per game
3rd in Contested Possessions per game
3rd in Contested Marks per game
3rd in least Opponent Contested Marks per game
3rd in Team to Opponent Contested Marks per game differential

5th in Team to Opponent Contested Possessions per game differential

And we're not finished yet.
 
Janus said:
At the end of R9:

View attachment 373751
There's like one stand out team (us), who didn't even play this week, a whole bunch of pretenders (GWS due to injuries, Adelaide due to their crap game plan that can't stand up under pressure, and Geelong due to lack of talent) and then this kaleidoscope of crap sides. At least Richmond has something approaching a premiership defensive setup. That's why anyone can beat anyone - the more homogenized tactics become, the harder it is to stand out from the crowd. If Eade didn't see the thrashing we gave his shit side coming, he should have looked at this graph before hand, because Port hasn't left the premiership zone all year.

At the conclusion of R9, Port Adelaide ranked:

1st in Least Opponent points per game
1st in Inside 50s per game
1st in Least Opponent Inside 50s per game
1st in Least Opponent Goal Assists per game
1st in Least Opponent Marks Inside 50 per game
1st in Team to Opponent Inside 50s per game differential
1st in Team to Opponent Goal Assists per game differential
1st in Team to Opponent Points per game differential

2nd in Points per game
2nd in Goal Assists per game
2nd in Clearances per game
2nd in One Percenters per game
2ns in Least Opponent Tackles per game
2nd in Team to Opponent Marks Inside 50 per game differential
2nd in Team to Opponent One Percenters per game differential

3rd in Kicks per game
3rd in Contested Possessions per game
3rd in Contested Marks per game
3rd in least Opponent Contested Marks per game
3rd in Team to Opponent Contested Marks per game differential

5th in Team to Opponent Contested Possessions per game differential

And we're not finished yet.
Click to expand...
All is right with the world again. :)
 
Janus said:
At the end of R9:

View attachment 373751
There's like one stand out team (us), who didn't even play this week, a whole bunch of pretenders (GWS due to injuries, Adelaide due to their crap game plan that can't stand up under pressure, and Geelong due to lack of talent) and then this kaleidoscope of crap sides. At least Richmond has something approaching a premiership defensive setup. That's why anyone can beat anyone - the more homogenized tactics become, the harder it is to stand out from the crowd. If Eade didn't see the thrashing we gave his shit side coming, he should have looked at this graph before hand, because Port hasn't left the premiership zone all year.

At the conclusion of R9, Port Adelaide ranked:

1st in Least Opponent points per game
1st in Inside 50s per game
1st in Least Opponent Inside 50s per game
1st in Least Opponent Goal Assists per game
1st in Least Opponent Marks Inside 50 per game
1st in Team to Opponent Inside 50s per game differential
1st in Team to Opponent Goal Assists per game differential
1st in Team to Opponent Points per game differential

2nd in Points per game
2nd in Goal Assists per game
2nd in Clearances per game
2nd in One Percenters per game
2ns in Least Opponent Tackles per game
2nd in Team to Opponent Marks Inside 50 per game differential
2nd in Team to Opponent One Percenters per game differential

3rd in Kicks per game
3rd in Contested Possessions per game
3rd in Contested Marks per game
3rd in least Opponent Contested Marks per game
3rd in Team to Opponent Contested Marks per game differential

5th in Team to Opponent Contested Possessions per game differential

And we're not finished yet.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif


PS Stay off the ****ing Crows board :pileofpoop:
 

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Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

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