Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

[RussellEbertHandball]

Interesting to see where we are after 6 games on the ladder in the Hinkley era, not so much the win losses, but the goals scored vs the goals conceded. We have kicked both more goals and also points than 2013 and 2014 when we were 5 wins and 1 loss. We have conceeded 1 less goal than 2013 but 7 more than 2014.

2017 http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp?AFLLadderTypeID=2&SeasonID=2017&Round=6-1

2016 http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp?AFLLadderTypeID=2&SeasonID=2016&Round=6-1

2015 http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp?AFLLadderTypeID=2&SeasonID=2015&Round=6-1

2014 http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp?AFLLadderTypeID=2&SeasonID=2014&Round=6-1

2013 http://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp?AFLLadderTypeID=2&SeasonID=2013&Round=6-1

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

Janus i know youve basically resigned to the fact that Adelaide is going to win a flag before we do but is their anything in that mind of yours that suggests otherwise. I mean ive watched all their games and its somewhat scary the way they are performing.

Is their a chsnce theyll buy into their own hype and fall when it counts, any stats to bsck that up. Would make me feel very comfortable because it is bloody difficult living in this state with this states media as it is dunno howd i bear with them winning the whole thing.

It seems that if they dont get injuries they got it wrapped up this year. That sucks.

Surely theres something to suggest we could take them out when it counts. Anything? Please?

 

[Janus]

Janus i know youve basically resigned to the fact that Adelaide is going to win a flag before we do but is their anything in that mind of yours that suggests otherwise. I mean ive watched all their games and its somewhat scary the way they are performing.

Is their a chsnce theyll buy into their own hype and fall when it counts, any stats to bsck that up. Would make me feel very comfortable because it is bloody difficult living in this state with this states media as it is dunno howd i bear with them winning the whole thing.

It seems that if they dont get injuries they got it wrapped up this year. That sucks.

Surely theres something to suggest we could take them out when it counts. Anything? Please?

I've never said Adelaide is going to win the flag before we do. I've said that I've accepted that they'll win the flag at some stage. It might be this year, it might be next - it might be in ten years time. Doesn't matter.

I've never done this for another side, but I'll do an in depth analysis of Adelaide now...and why you don't need to worry.

Adelaide is a counter-attacking side that drops a lot of players back behind the ball at stoppages and then pushes forward with numerical supremacy through the gaps that opposition teams leave open through the midfield in transition by keeping outlets in designated positions on each wing - Lynch is a main target for this. They don't have the greatest leg speed, preferring to let the ball do most of the work. This enables the few fast players they do have to stream past the wing and cut inside to their plethora of tall targets.

One of the fallacies that a lot of people have about Adelaide is that their weakness is pressure around the ball. It's not. In fact, pressuring the ball is probably the worst thing you can do to Adelaide because a) it wears players out (as Richmond found out) and b) it allows Adelaide to hit hard on the counter when gaps in defence start opening up (as Richmond found out). When Mark Ricciuto is saying on the broadcast 'Richmond have shown people how to beat Adelaide' - referring to the intense pressure they displayed in the first quarter - he's saying that disingenuously because he knows that sort of belief will play right into the hands of the Crows.

When a side is 1st for contested possessions, 6th in tackles and 5th for uncontested possessions, it shows that they are more like a pressure sponge - soaking up the hits before exploding out on the counter.

Compare that to the sides around them: GWS - 2nd in contested possessions, 14th in tackles, 12th in uncontested possessions. Geelong - 8th in contested possessions, 9th in tackles, 6th in uncontested possessions. Richmond - 4th in contested possessions, 3rd in tackles, 18th in uncontested possessions. Port Adelaide - 6th in contested possessions, 13th in tackles, 14th in uncontested possessions.

What is wrong with this picture?

Apparently they are not only good at both uncontested and contested ball, they are great at both. You know who else is statistically great at both? The only other side? Collingwood (3rd contested, 5th in tackles, 4th uncontested). And they've won two games.

This is why I say it's unsustainable bullshit. Unless these guys are on PEDs, they simply can't keep playing at this sort of intensity for another 16 rounds of the regular season + finals.

As for hope:

Points Scored per Disposal

1. Adelaide - 0.327 (411 disposals avg)
2. Port Adelaide - 0.317 (371 disposals avg)
3. Geelong - 0.289 (399 disposals avg)
4. GWS - 0.282 (385 disposals avg)
5. Richmond - 0.277 (347 disposals avg)
6. West Coast - 0.243 (401 disposals avg)
7. Melbourne - 0.240 (413 disposals avg)
8. Western Bulldogs - 0.237 (399 disposals avg)

Don't worry about Adelaide. We are cruising along in second gear with a six speed gearbox and will only get better, while they can't play any better than what they are right now. That's why when Hinkley says we're doing things a lot different than anyone else, he's absolutely right. To have the second highest points scored per disposal while having the second lowest disposal average of the top eight sides (both by a significant margin) shows where the future lies. And it's not at West Lakes.

 

[PA88]

I've never said Adelaide is going to win the flag before we do. I've said that I've accepted that they'll win the flag at some stage. It might be this year, it might be next - it might be in ten years time. Doesn't matter.

I've never done this for another side, but I'll do an in depth analysis of Adelaide now...and why you don't need to worry.

Adelaide is a counter-attacking side that drops a lot of players back behind the ball at stoppages and then pushes forward with numerical supremacy through the gaps that opposition teams leave open through the midfield in transition by keeping outlets in designated positions on each wing - Lynch is a main target for this. They don't have the greatest leg speed, preferring to let the ball do most of the work. This enables the few fast players they do have to stream past the wing and cut inside to their plethora of tall targets.

One of the fallacies that a lot of people have about Adelaide is that their weakness is pressure around the ball. It's not. In fact, pressuring the ball is probably the worst thing you can do to Adelaide because a) it wears players out (as Richmond found out) and b) it allows Adelaide to hit hard on the counter when gaps in defence start opening up (as Richmond found out). When Mark Ricciuto is saying on the broadcast 'Richmond have shown people how to beat Adelaide' - referring to the intense pressure they displayed in the first quarter - he's saying that disingenuously because he knows that sort of belief will play right into the hands of the Crows.

When a side is 1st for contested possessions, 6th in tackles and 5th for uncontested possessions, it shows that they are more like a pressure sponge - soaking up the hits before exploding out on the counter.

Compare that to the sides around them: GWS - 2nd in contested possessions, 14th in tackles, 12th in uncontested possessions. Geelong - 8th in contested possessions, 9th in tackles, 6th in uncontested possessions. Richmond - 4th in contested possessions, 3rd in tackles, 18th in uncontested possessions. Port Adelaide - 6th in contested possessions, 13th in tackles, 14th in uncontested possessions.

What is wrong with this picture?

Apparently they are not only good at both uncontested and contested ball, they are great at both. You know who else is statistically great at both? The only other side? Collingwood (3rd contested, 5th in tackles, 4th uncontested). And they've won two games.

This is why I say it's unsustainable bullshit. Unless these guys are on PEDs, they simply can't keep playing at this sort of intensity for another 16 rounds of the regular season + finals.

As for hope:

Points Scored per Disposal

1. Adelaide - 0.327 (411 disposals avg)
2. Port Adelaide - 0.317 (371 disposals avg)
3. Geelong - 0.289 (399 disposals avg)
4. GWS - 0.282 (385 disposals avg)
5. Richmond - 0.277 (347 disposals avg)
6. West Coast - 0.243 (401 disposals avg)
7. Melbourne - 0.240 (413 disposals avg)
8. Western Bulldogs - 0.237 (399 disposals avg)

Don't worry about Adelaide. We are cruising along in second gear with a six speed gearbox and will only get better, while they can't play any better than what they are right now. That's why when Hinkley says we're doing things a lot different than anyone else, he's absolutely right. To have the second highest points scored per disposal while having the second lowest disposal average of the top eight sides (both by a significant margin) shows where the future lies. And it's not at West Lakes.

I hope your disection is close to the outcome that comes about ... dearly dearly hope. I can't help but think that I'll need to be bracing myself for inevitable pain and depression in September. I view Adelaide's coaching is incredibly astute. It is early in the season but if they enter finals in fit condition they won't stumble again.

 

[Janus]

I hope your disection is close to the outcome that comes about ... dearly dearly hope. I can't help but think that I'll need to be bracing myself for inevitable pain and depression in September. I view Adelaide's coaching is incredibly astute. It is early in the season but if they enter finals in fit condition they won't stumble again.

Why would you be depressed if Adelaide wins the flag? If they manage to keep up this clip they'll fully deserve it, and rightly so.

It's just football. Someone is going to win, and seventeen teams are going to lose.

 

[Magus]

Why would you be depressed if Adelaide wins the flag? If they manage to keep up this clip they'll fully deserve it, and rightly so.

It's just football. Someone is going to win, and seventeen teams are going to lose.

Because their supporters are hard to be around. I thought that was pretty well established.

 

[PA88]

Why would you be depressed if Adelaide wins the flag? If they manage to keep up this clip they'll fully deserve it, and rightly so.

It's just football. Someone is going to win, and seventeen teams are going to lose.

They conveniently measure by afl flags won only now in this state. A club like ours being second hurts growth and they'll use it to demean our history.

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

I've never said Adelaide is going to win the flag before we do. I've said that I've accepted that they'll win the flag at some stage. It might be this year, it might be next - it might be in ten years time. Doesn't matter.

I've never done this for another side, but I'll do an in depth analysis of Adelaide now...and why you don't need to worry.

Adelaide is a counter-attacking side that drops a lot of players back behind the ball at stoppages and then pushes forward with numerical supremacy through the gaps that opposition teams leave open through the midfield in transition by keeping outlets in designated positions on each wing - Lynch is a main target for this. They don't have the greatest leg speed, preferring to let the ball do most of the work. This enables the few fast players they do have to stream past the wing and cut inside to their plethora of tall targets.

One of the fallacies that a lot of people have about Adelaide is that their weakness is pressure around the ball. It's not. In fact, pressuring the ball is probably the worst thing you can do to Adelaide because a) it wears players out (as Richmond found out) and b) it allows Adelaide to hit hard on the counter when gaps in defence start opening up (as Richmond found out). When Mark Ricciuto is saying on the broadcast 'Richmond have shown people how to beat Adelaide' - referring to the intense pressure they displayed in the first quarter - he's saying that disingenuously because he knows that sort of belief will play right into the hands of the Crows.

When a side is 1st for contested possessions, 6th in tackles and 5th for uncontested possessions, it shows that they are more like a pressure sponge - soaking up the hits before exploding out on the counter.

Compare that to the sides around them: GWS - 2nd in contested possessions, 14th in tackles, 12th in uncontested possessions. Geelong - 8th in contested possessions, 9th in tackles, 6th in uncontested possessions. Richmond - 4th in contested possessions, 3rd in tackles, 18th in uncontested possessions. Port Adelaide - 6th in contested possessions, 13th in tackles, 14th in uncontested possessions.

What is wrong with this picture?

Apparently they are not only good at both uncontested and contested ball, they are great at both. You know who else is statistically great at both? The only other side? Collingwood (3rd contested, 5th in tackles, 4th uncontested). And they've won two games.

This is why I say it's unsustainable bullshit. Unless these guys are on PEDs, they simply can't keep playing at this sort of intensity for another 16 rounds of the regular season + finals.

As for hope:

Points Scored per Disposal

1. Adelaide - 0.327 (411 disposals avg)
2. Port Adelaide - 0.317 (371 disposals avg)
3. Geelong - 0.289 (399 disposals avg)
4. GWS - 0.282 (385 disposals avg)
5. Richmond - 0.277 (347 disposals avg)
6. West Coast - 0.243 (401 disposals avg)
7. Melbourne - 0.240 (413 disposals avg)
8. Western Bulldogs - 0.237 (399 disposals avg)

Don't worry about Adelaide. We are cruising along in second gear with a six speed gearbox and will only get better, while they can't play any better than what they are right now. That's why when Hinkley says we're doing things a lot different than anyone else, he's absolutely right. To have the second highest points scored per disposal while having the second lowest disposal average of the top eight sides (both by a significant margin) shows where the future lies. And it's not at West Lakes.

This is what i was hoping for.

I understand.its sport and sometimes rival teams win but god it would hurt. The gearbox analogy will make me sleep better tonight.

Looking forward to ceusing in 6th gear come September. Carn!

 

[Peck]

Adelaide could take full advantage of the break before finals though.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Adelaide could take full advantage of the break before finals though.

Let's put it this way, if they don't win the Premiership it's a massive fail and a massive choke. They've had 2 years injury free and 2 smart coaches to get them playing an uninterrupted game plan with consistent players on the field week in week out. Even their injuries this year are easily replaceable, they haven't had any first 22 out for weeks on end so they can easily continue their surge. They very likely still have Walsh's software program for assessing opposition strategies, an incredibly easy draw this year and only play 2 of the top teams away from Adelaide oval. They are playing well, but they are having the perfect preparation. A bit like the Bulldogs last year, sometimes it just falls into place.

 

[Peck]

If Adelaide win the premiership it'll be a massive achievement, their list really isn't that good yet, and despite their fantastic form early it will be hard work for them to stay ahead without other teams working them out.

They are the favourites right now but there are still 4-5 other teams in the mix.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

This was on Port's website which they pinched off afl.com.au saying where each team was after 5 rounds, statistically speaking.

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-28/18-clubs-current-trends
Turnovers were a major source of frustration for the Power last year, but in the opening five rounds they have gone some way to rectifying that problem. It all comes down to patience, better decision-making and ball use. The Power led the League in clangers in 2016, averaging 58 per game. This season, that average is down to 52, 11th in the competition. Part of the reason is because they are playing on less after they take a mark, from 42.5 per cent (second) in 2016 to 32.3 per cent (17th) this year. The Power's disposal efficiency has also improved from 70.7 per cent (seventh) to 72.1 per cent (4th). The Power's attack is more potent than last year on the back of Robbie Gray spending more time in the forward 50. Gray has booted 14 goals in five games, well on track to eclipse his career-high of 42 goals in a season set in 2014. The return of ruckman Patrick Ryder has allowed the Power's midfielders first use of the ball, one of the reasons why they have the most Inside 50s in the competition at 61 per game. - Lee Gaskin http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-28/18-clubs-current-trends

I have bolded the bit about playing on after taking a mark. People foolishly believe that playing on straight away helps us move the ball quicker. Its BS if you don't know what is around you and where players are down the field. You only play on straight away when you know for sure who and what is around you and what options are on down the field. Playing on for playing on's sake doesn't mean much.

And Kenny pointed to it in his presser tonight saying we are more composed this year.

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-29/hinkley-our-composure-is-improving
"We'd love to play 120 minutes straight, play it all on our terms, but we know AFL football doesn't allow that, the competition's too even," Hinkley said. "I thought today was pretty comprehensive in the amount of time we controlled the game.

"I love it when we play fast footy, like everyone does. I think everyone loves their team playing a fast, exciting brand of football, but just to have the composure at the right moments, and I think we're getting better at that."
http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-29/hinkley-our-composure-is-improving

Yep. We are playing a much more mature game style. The play on at all costs run and gun was too easy to counter by just putting a few players behind the ball for us to play on and kick to.

Now we have plan b and c and as a result are turning it over much less.

The next test is to have the skills and composure to be able to play that style against the best.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[OneGreatClub]

Port Adelaide defence is AFL best — aided by improved defensive work from the Power forwards

While Port Adelaide defence has conceded just an average 77 points — equalling the club’s AFL low mark set in 2014 when coach Ken Hinkley took the Power to the preliminary finals — the midfielders and forwards are ranked No. 1 for working inside-50s, with 62 a match.

This outpaces the league-leading, high-scoring Crows with an average 59.6 inside-50s.

New Power forwards coach Brendon Lade has resolved the damaging problem of quick rebound from Port Adelaide’s forward half swamping the defenders.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...f2a6ba726779fd27f4c9dc31c0d5adba?from=htc_rss

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

FROM http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-05-04/smarter-data-power-rankings

and I have taken some data from http://www.afl.com.au/stats and added in brackets, these are totals figures not average figures as mentioned in the article. The percentage figures in brackets are from the club's article.

#1 - We’re sending the ball inside our forward 50 more than any other side.
1st for average number of Inside 50s
1. Port Adelaide (372 for 104 goals 82 behinds)
2. Adelaide (358 for 121.80)
3. GWS (352 for 95.82)
4. Collingwood (347 for 67.88)
5. Richmond (345 for 84.74)

* 10. Geelong 320 times for 105.61, 11. WCE 313 times for 87.64

#2 - And once it’s in there, we’re the third most likely team on average to mark it.
3rd for average marks inside 50 per game
1. Adelaide (109)
2. St Kilda (86)
3. Port Adelaide (85)
4. North Melbourne (81)
5. Geelong (80)

#3 - We’re spending the majority of our time in our attacking half; the first ingredient in a good winning recipe.
4th for time in forward zone
1. Adelaide
2. Western Bulldogs
3. St Kilda
4. Port Adelaide (53%)
5. Richmond

#4 - And only our cross-town rivals have spent more time leading in games than we have.
2nd for leading game time
1. Adelaide
2. Port Adelaide (68%)
3. GWS
4. Cold Coast
5. St Kilda

#5 - We perform well from stoppages, sitting second for total points scored from the stoppage – just behind Geelong.
2nd for total points scored from stoppage
1. Geelong
2. Port Adelaide
3. Adelaide
4. North Melbourne
5. GWS

#6 - And we’re ranked in the top four teams across the comp for winning clearances.
4th for average number of clearances per game
1. GWS (259)
2. Adelaide (239)
3. Fremantle (237)
4. Port Adelaide (236)
5. Brisbane (233)

#7 - The centre bounce is one of our favourite score sources – we hit the scoreboard from the bounce more than any other side.
1st for total goals scored from centre bounces
1. Port Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. North Melbourne
4. Melbourne
5. Western Bulldogs

#8 - In fact, generally speaking we’ve hit the scoreboard more often than any other side…except for Adelaide.
2nd for total points scored across the season
1. Adelaide
2. Port Adelaide
3. Geelong
4. GWS
5. Melbourne


#9 - Tough inside contest from our mids leaves us third in the comp for winning contested possessions.
3rd for contested possessions
1. Richmond
2. Sydney
3. Port Adelaide
4. GWS
5. Carlton

Not sure what criteria they are using here but total contested possession count is
Adel 959, GWS 902, Rich 901, Coll 900, WB 890, Port 880

#10 - And last, but not least, our team defence has conceded the least number of opposition scores, competition-wide.
1st for least number of points scored against
1. Port Adelaide
2. GWS
3. Adelaide
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Richmond

 

[Janus]

Not sure where they get the contested possession stat from. Footywire (who would get it from the AFL/Champion Data) has us 6th.

 

[Janus]

On the Couch just showed a graphic showing the stats of our press this season. In summary:

#1 for time in forward half (+10:01) - up from -1:35 (11th) in 2016
#1 for forward half stoppages (35) - up from 33 (7th) in 2016
#1 for forward half intercepts (29) - up from 25 (4th) in 2016
#1 for forward half score (65 points) - up from 47 points (6th) in 2016

 

[Zakk Wylde]

You could see Bassett's work kicking in from half way through last season.... Clearly a difference after the "over the backs" were leaked early in the year.

 

[OneGreatClub]

On Facebook there's chart, don't know where from. It says Port has won the most quarters of any team so far this year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

On Facebook there's chart, don't know where from. It says Port has won the most quarters of any team so far this year.

If you go to www.finalsiren com you can click on each team on the ladder to go to their page and there is a tab on the right for quarter statistics which inclues quarters won lost and drawn and percentage per quarter. As per the top 5 teams quarters results;

Crows and GWS won 21 lost 11.
WCE won 17 drawn 2 lost 13
Port won 24 lost 8
GEE won 16 lost 16.

 

[charcolechaddy]

I still think inside mid work is king.

 

[Janus]

At the bye:

 

[Forzaport]

Janus's name in red, yep, been spending too much time over yonder.

 

[OneGreatClub]

If you go to www.finalsiren com you can click on each team on the ladder to go to their page and there is a tab on the right for quarter statistics which inclues quarters won lost and drawn and percentage per quarter. As per the top 5 teams quarters results;

Crows and GWS won 21 lost 11.
WCE won 17 drawn 2 lost 13
Port won 24 lost 8
GEE won 16 lost 16.

Ah thankyou

 

[OneGreatClub]

At the bye:

View attachment 371043

who'd a thunk?

 

[Tibbs]

At the bye:

View attachment 371043

Give us the trophy NOW!!