Certified Legendary Thread Holding Faith in Stephen Wells and Mackie (a.k.a. "In Wells We Trust")

[TheWoodenSlug]

Looking to add to an interesting discussion, not push anyone's buttons, but isn't the knock on Swells his usage of early picks, such as
Thurlow. Lang, Cockatoo, and even Parfitt?

His ability to get value in round 2 and beyond is hard to debate, but I am personally a bit worried about unconventional use of first-round picks. Sometimes the general consensus is actually correct.

I think that would be my only (very minor) knock on him - being too cute, or "reaching", with his early picks. But yeah, that is purely based on him not taking the consensus options, rather than any real knowledge I have of the players he passes on, so I'm not overly critical. He obviously knows a lot more about all the draftees than I ever will.

Overall though, I am definitely very happy that he works for Geelong. He doesn't have the league wide reputation he has for no reason.

 

[Turbocat]

Moggy

Draft pick misses...... in fact talk about top 10 draft miss picks. When SW has being doing it as long as he has ... I doubt he is in the top10.... but they all misses sooner or later... The right pick at the time doesn't mean the right outcome happens.


Nominations for top 10 draft pick busts ....

Thorpe at P6 before Selwood at P7 and Scully at P1, Trengrove at P2 (both Melb). and then Dusty Martin at P3 ...

IMO, The worst two picks by SW post 2000.... would probably be Tenace and Cockatoo (atpit). as I rate the choice by the picks used... but to be fair I don't think either draft was super strong.

 

[Lana]

Looking to add to an interesting discussion, not push anyone's buttons, but isn't the knock on Swells his usage of early picks, such as
Thurlow. Lang, Cockatoo, and even Parfitt?

His ability to get value in round 2 and beyond is hard to debate, but I am personally a bit worried about unconventional use of first-round picks. Sometimes the general consensus is actually correct.

People overrate the strike rate of early picks. There is just so many things that can go wrong even before you take the talent of the player into consideration.

Once you get through the top two picks, the strike rate of getting a 150 game from a pick plummets, by the 5-8 range all recruiters are going at 35% by 9-12 it's at 20%, on average it pretty much stays there until late in the national draft. This is over a 10 year period from 1997 to 2006.

I think a good way to judge Wells talent spotting ability is to see how many of our castaways still around in the League, there aren't many delisted Carlton players running around. There is half a team worth of our rejects on other teams list.

 

[Turbocat]

People overrate the strike rate of early picks. There is just so many things that can go wrong even before you take the talent of the player into consideration.

Once you get through the top two picks, the strike rate of getting a 150 game from a pick plummets, by the 5-8 range all recruiters are going at 35% by 9-12 it's at 20%, on average it pretty much stays there until late in the national draft. This is over a 10 year period from 1997 to 2006.

I think a good way to judge Wells talent spotting ability is to see how many of our castaways still around in the League, there aren't many delisted Carlton players running around. There is half a team worth of our rejects on other teams list.

q points Lana .....

and even with stats there are other stats ... I still think success rater of certain picks is affected by the clubs they go to.. explain why a club had failure with picks we would only dream about...

 

[Lana]

q points Lana .....

and even with stats there are other stats ... I still think success rater of certain picks is affected by the clubs they go to.. explain why a club had failure with picks we would only dream about...

A while back I tested to see if finishing position(which isn't perfect but it was what I had at the time), had an effect on games played, it had a negligible effect (R2 of around 0.01, For comparison the draft pick had an R2 of 0.13)

 

[Turbocat]

A while back I tested to see if finishing position(which isn't perfect but it was what I had at the time), had an effect on games played, it had a negligible effect (R2 of around 0.01, For comparison the draft pick had an R2 of 0.13)

My point really is unprovable imo.... If the best talent gets picked by the worst clubs.... and the worst talent gets picked by the best club. .... how would the best talent go if it landed and the best club in comparision to the worst... ie thats my Tambling Vrcoe thing. imo.. Tabling was as talented as Varcoe.. yet landed at a club in a poor state and the wrong time.. Tambling at Geelong I think has abetter career and Varcoe at Richmond would have struggled..but its opinion.

I suspect that the best results from early picks come from good clubs that have bad years.. for example .. West Coast do not finish low often... yet when they have, they picked Judd at 3, Sampi at 6, Masten at 3, NicNat at 2 , Sheppard at 7, Gaff at 4..

even games played is somewhat of an impure method of success cause its obvious easier to get game at a bottom club...

 

[Moggy]

Thanks guys, good comments.

I know the stats are quite compelling, when looking at average games played for players drafted at a certain place in the draft... and it is very easy to point the finger if just a single gun player slips through. Thurlow/Grundy still niggles at a lot of Cats fanatics...

Still, knowing that Melbourne passed over Dusty twice (twice!) puts things into perspective.
They also took Salem over Ollie Wines, when Wines and Jack V were best mates and working under Viney senior. Oh dear!

 

[dazbroncos]

I know the OP hates this thread getting a bump... (sorry Son_Of_God29) and this is not directed at you.....

But some credit is due here

There are plenty of posts where the CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the President and the players have all copped some almighty sprays..

Some not without merit to be fair. but some decent floggings nonetheless

Id like to point out in the aforementioned CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the Presidents defence....

We are into a GF that many said we were too old and would never make as the trades and draft picks we made had crippled the club. We are into a GF with most of the traded players we got.
We are into a GF with players that many said would never make it as we had to drop down the ladder and get high picks. Those same Rookie picks, late picks et al are playing in a GF.
We are into a GF in a season where the CEO and President have been called too insular and back slappy to succeed - and its partly due to the off field management and support the Club as a while has received that has helped facilitate this.
We have 3 x Rd 1 picks going into this drafting and trading period - as well as a GF berth - but the List management team dont know what they are doing.

Oh... and to top it off, the Coleman Medallist from 2019 and one of the top 4 KPF in the game has just selected us to be his RFA destination - and we have 3 x Rd1 picks.. and we are in a GF.

Id say those that have had overly large and continual shots at those listed at the top of this post can pull their ****ing heads in and piss off...

We are in great shape win or loss this weekend.

IWWT

GO Catters

 

[CharacterFirst]

I know the OP hates this thread getting a bump... (sorry Son_Of_God29) and this is not directed at you.....

But some credit is due here

There are plenty of posts where the CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the President and the players have all copped some almighty sprays..

Some not without merit to be fair. but some decent floggings nonetheless

Id like to point out in the aforementioned CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the Presidents defence....

We are into a GF that many said we were too old and would never make as the trades and draft picks we made had crippled the club. We are into a GF with most of the traded players we got.
We are into a GF with players that many said would never make it as we had to drop down the ladder and get high picks. Those same Rookie picks, late picks et al are playing in a GF.
We are into a GF in a season where the CEO and President have been called too insular and back slappy to succeed - and its partly due to the off field management and support the Club as a while has received that has helped facilitate this.
We have 3 x Rd 1 picks going into this drafting and trading period - as well as a GF berth - but the List management team dont know what they are doing.

Oh... and to top it off, the Coleman Medallist from 2019 and one of the top 4 KPF in the game has just selected us to be his RFA destination - and we have 3 x Rd1 picks.. and we are in a GF.

Id say those that have had overly large and continual shots at those listed at the top of this post can pull their ******* heads in and piss off...

We are in great shape win or loss this weekend.

IWWT

GO Catters

I (and others as well of course) have been guilty of.........

Talking the club up.

Of praising the leadership - from the coach to the president and all in between.

Of encouraging and explaining the root of our culture.

Of proclaiming the outstanding club we have become over the last two decades.

I'm glad I was on the right side.

Hehehehe.

 

[JohnZ]

Like you, waiting until 2pm before potentially launching an assault

Unfortunately this years assault got pushed back to 7.30

 

[Whit3y]

I know the OP hates this thread getting a bump... (sorry Son_Of_God29) and this is not directed at you.....

But some credit is due here

There are plenty of posts where the CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the President and the players have all copped some almighty sprays..

Some not without merit to be fair. but some decent floggings nonetheless

Id like to point out in the aforementioned CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the Presidents defence....

We are into a GF that many said we were too old and would never make as the trades and draft picks we made had crippled the club. We are into a GF with most of the traded players we got.
We are into a
Id say those that have had overly large and continual shots at those listed at the top of this post can pull their ******* heads in and piss off...

We are in great shape win or loss this weekend.

IWWT

GO Catters

I know the OP hates this thread getting a bump... (sorry Son_Of_God29) and this is not directed at you.....



Id say those that have had overly large and continual shots at those listed at the top of this post can pull their ******* heads in and piss off...


IWWT

GO Catters

This kind of language is not necessary. You are better then this.

 

[Tony Barber]

This kind of language is not necessary. You are better then this.

I actually thought the language was fine.
I have more issue with condescending terms such as "you are better than this"

 

[catscratchfever]

Wells has consistently smashed it out of the park since he first landed the role. GOAT.

 

[Son_Of_God29]

I know the OP hates this thread getting a bump... (sorry Son_Of_God29) and this is not directed at you.....

But some credit is due here

There are plenty of posts where the CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the President and the players have all copped some almighty sprays..

Some not without merit to be fair. but some decent floggings nonetheless

Id like to point out in the aforementioned CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the Presidents defence....

We are into a GF that many said we were too old and would never make as the trades and draft picks we made had crippled the club. We are into a GF with most of the traded players we got.
We are into a GF with players that many said would never make it as we had to drop down the ladder and get high picks. Those same Rookie picks, late picks et al are playing in a GF.
We are into a GF in a season where the CEO and President have been called too insular and back slappy to succeed - and its partly due to the off field management and support the Club as a while has received that has helped facilitate this.
We have 3 x Rd 1 picks going into this drafting and trading period - as well as a GF berth - but the List management team dont know what they are doing.

Oh... and to top it off, the Coleman Medallist from 2019 and one of the top 4 KPF in the game has just selected us to be his RFA destination - and we have 3 x Rd1 picks.. and we are in a GF.

Id say those that have had overly large and continual shots at those listed at the top of this post can pull their ******* heads in and piss off...

We are in great shape win or loss this weekend.

IWWT

GO Catters

Daz its fine i will say that this wasn't my finest thread and that the club and Wellsy have been outstanding for many many years and we should be proud of our recruiting team

 

[Turbocat]

I know the OP hates this thread getting a bump... (sorry Son_Of_God29) and this is not directed at you.....

But some credit is due here

There are plenty of posts where the CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the President and the players have all copped some almighty sprays..

Some not without merit to be fair. but some decent floggings nonetheless

Id like to point out in the aforementioned CEO, the Coach, The List Manager, the Presidents defence....

We are into a GF that many said we were too old and would never make as the trades and draft picks we made had crippled the club. We are into a GF with most of the traded players we got.
We are into a GF with players that many said would never make it as we had to drop down the ladder and get high picks. Those same Rookie picks, late picks et al are playing in a GF.
We are into a GF in a season where the CEO and President have been called too insular and back slappy to succeed - and its partly due to the off field management and support the Club as a while has received that has helped facilitate this.
We have 3 x Rd 1 picks going into this drafting and trading period - as well as a GF berth - but the List management team dont know what they are doing.

Oh... and to top it off, the Coleman Medallist from 2019 and one of the top 4 KPF in the game has just selected us to be his RFA destination - and we have 3 x Rd1 picks.. and we are in a GF.

Id say those that have had overly large and continual shots at those listed at the top of this post can pull their ******* heads in and piss off...

We are in great shape win or loss this weekend.

IWWT

GO Catters

Credit due for sure

In relation to SWells ..he is not perfect ..not every pick will win..and has at times probably rolled the dice too much with some early picks..but I feel thats only becuase we have not had enough very early picks, trying to make something from later R1 etc. Drafting is only half the story ..and one in two probably fails due to oppitunity.

Put it this way ... like in any subject people can have their own opinion, mine is that we have just not give him enough quality picks in R1.... but if for any reason SWells left Geelong ... my guess 17 clubs would be on the phone offering more than he gets paid at geelong. He is highly rated by people in the industry , people whose opinion counts

 

[Moggy]

Totally agree that this year’s effort deposits a sh!t-ton of credit in the bank accounts of the club leaders.

Amazing footy, how sweet the sight
That saved a tragic like me
I had my doubts, but the picks were sound
Was blind, but now I see

 

[Partridge]

I (and others as well of course) have been guilty of.........

Talking the club up.

Of praising the leadership - from the coach to the president and all in between.

Of encouraging and explaining the root of our culture.

Of proclaiming the outstanding club we have become over the last two decades.

I'm glad I was on the right side.

Hehehehe.

I haven't.

Line up and take your shots.

Positives are for me Guthrie, Menegola, even Miers (good moments in a Grand final is a massive step up for him). Kolodjashnij was not disgraced at all.
Negatives are the core of the side is nudging or other thirty and two critical players - Selwood and Dangerfield - are looking very mortal. Tuohy not far behind. Players with question marks under finals pressure in Blicavs and Rohan evaporated again. So there are pluses and minuses. Making it an undoubted plus.

How well placed we are for next year we're not going to find until we get there.

 

[CharacterFirst]

I haven't.

Line up and take your shots.

Positives are for me Guthrie, Menegola, even Miers (good moments in a Grand final is a massive step up for him). Kolodjashnij was not disgraced at all.
Negatives are the core of the side is nudging or other thirty and two critical players - Selwood and Dangerfield - are looking very mortal. Tuohy not far behind. Players with question marks under finals pressure in Blicavs and Rohan evaporated again. So there are pluses and minuses. Making it an undoubted plus.

How well placed we are for next year we're not going to find until we get there.

I would defy any club to achieve what has Geelong has under the same circumstances.

Our last 20 years have been remarkable all things considered.

Perfect? No one is (except JC ).

Outstanding? Yes.

Next year? I agree - we won't know till we get there.

But the culture, character and position of the club is unlikely to deteriorate overall in a season.

From the little we know the list management team are doing all they can to put in a place to contend again.

I expect the coaches, players and admin will do the same.

Will the fans? I guess we will find out.

 

[Whit3y]

I actually thought the language was fine.
I have more issue with condescending terms such as "you are better than this"

Take it to the bay

 

[Moggy]

Perfect? No one is (except JC ).

Nah, even Clark has parts of his game to work on

 

[CharacterFirst]

Nah, even Clark has parts of his game to work on

Yeah.

It was either going to be Clark or Cameron.

 

[dazbroncos]

IWWT

Wellsy... you've done it again

This one is SO much you!!!!!

GO CAtters

 

[GeelongFTW]

have to say Wells getting back into form sealed this win. Stengle, henry, o'connor, parfitt, SDK,etc. all hits all coming into good form at the same time.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Get in here Whit3y

 

[Lana]

Our list build just shattered AFL orthodoxy.