Elixuh
See you on the 9th green at 9
Yeah parts of our defence did not look right and perhaps we put that down to too many guys playing injured.
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How do we take the next step to a premiership?
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Yeah parts of our defence did not look right and perhaps we put that down to too many guys playing injured.
Good analysis. The only thing that I’d dispute is a lack of “plan B”. It’s one of my biggest bugbears in footy - a team lacking a “plan B”. Seems to be an easy criticism about a struggling coach. Whenever a team is getting thumped, it’s because so-and-so doesn’t have this..
I’d love to see what a “plan B” actually entails. Can someone actually explain what this might look like and give some examples of it actually being employed in a game? I’d love to know.
It’s surely more than simply switching a key back up forward.
Yep I agree with ts mostly mental but even then, despite having a really banged up team and players out, we still only lost by one point on the back of an ‘interesting’ infringement count.
I think the team is ready but needs to improve mainly in defense. Our backs looked so slow when teams transitioned fast. A lot of that may just be again because of being banged up but Coleman made a big difference, we need more pace injection down back. Hopefully Answorth comes back strong or maybe we convert Coleman Jr into that kind of player or Madden comes on strong or even Prior. It’s clearly something our off field team see as a problem, hopefully one or two of those guys make it happen.
I think the team is ready but needs to improve mainly in defense. Our backs looked so slow when teams transitioned fast. A lot of that may just be again because of being banged up but Coleman made a big difference, we need more pace injection down back. Hopefully Answorth comes back strong or maybe we convert Coleman Jr into that kind of player or Madden comes on strong or even Prior. It’s clearly something our off field team see as a problem, hopefully one or two of those guys make it happen.
To answer the question, agree with a few points. One thing that I would disagree with is that Oscar needs more support. Would agree that our ruck depth is concerning but would say that we would be a much better team if Oscar was the support. Imagine throwing someone like Gawn or a fit Nankervis in our team and letting O play 40/40/20 ruck/forward/bench. We’d be a 3 goal better side.
We desperately need more speed and foot skills in our defence to truly challenge. We look at our best when we transition quickly from defence, through the corridor, and getting it deep inside 50 as fast as possible. We destroy teams when we get that right.
Another skilled big bodied midfielder would do wonders as well. Not CEY, though you can see that our recruiters see that being a weakness as well.
Problem is there’s a reason why we don’t have an elite ruck + speedy defender with exquisite foot skills + a big bodied contested two-way beast in the midfield. There’s probably 12-15 of them collectively in the AFL. Also, averaging >$750k a pop.
We do need someone to come from the clouds a bit like Starc and Bailey over the last couple of years and firmly entrench themselves as certain best 22 with elite qualities. Maybe Dev, Prior, or Madden will be our 2022 version.
We desperately need more speed and foot skills in our defence to truly challenge. We look at our best when we transition quickly from defence, through the corridor, and getting it deep inside 50 as fast as possible. We destroy teams when we get that right.
Another skilled big bodied midfielder would do wonders as well. Not CEY, though you can see that our recruiters see that being a weakness as well.
Problem is there’s a reason why we don’t have an elite ruck + speedy defender with exquisite foot skills + a big bodied contested two-way beast in the midfield. There’s probably 12-15 of them collectively in the AFL. Also, averaging >$750k a pop.
We do need someone to come from the clouds a bit like Starc and Bailey over the last couple of years and firmly entrench themselves as certain best 22 with elite qualities. Maybe Dev, Prior, or Madden will be our 2022 version.
Elixuh
See you on the 9th green at 9
It is a shame that Berrys journey has been interrupted so heavily by injury to date. I think he is one to watch as a bit of a bolter for us if he gets his body right.
Very true. Think he’s been completely forgotten.
Horrific season injury-wise but if he can get back to how he was tracking 18/19/20, he’ll add a completely different aspect to our midfield.
Prepared to write his entire year off due to injury. Never looked comfortable with his body.
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always the way
I add this year we got beaten by 3 out of 4 playing this weekend. Dogs and Demons both times
Shows a gap.
Also our finals we are 1-5.. Yes 2 we could say lost with umps help and our own inability to score.
Although like Cats is our game plan slow out of the backline which falls down when pressure increases
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I agree that we are one short in the middle, and don't know where we will get it from. Have to hope for internal development but agree with others that the expectation cannot be that Rayner magically starts tripling his average disposal numbers.
Can't disagree more about it being a mistake to trade in Lachie though. Playing finals > stuck in mid table mediocrity, and the continual rebuild clubs are losers imo. I've got more enjoyment out of the last 3 seasons of footy than the previous decade. Good for Melbourne that they finally got it right but it took 13-14 years of sucking 85% of the time and complete beltings.
There is also no guarantee that we would have been able to hold on to the players you identified as hits if we'd be sitting mid-table, maybe having scraped a bottom of the 8 spot. I'm not sure Clugg, Bailey and Starce would have been as keen to re-sign if we'd continued on our path.
Don't forget the tried and true Robert Walls strategy of giving a key forward a run in the ruck!
I feel we need someone to take on the defensive midfielders role and organise the zone in the middle of the ground. We shouldn't be getting opened up through the middle of the ground as much as we do.
Neale and Lyons are both setup as close to the ball as possible, and while they are both extremely good in the clinches if they are getting beaten we really start to fall away. It's no surprise our best year of the last 3 has been when Neale was literally winning every single clearance and racking up 30+ touches a game. The solution here is a tough one though, because we don't really have a defensive minded player In the middle. If I was looking at a balanced midfield group and how I would want it to be, would look something like this.
Defensive Sweeper, someone to act as the release handball out the back of a stoppage, aswell as watching the opposition midfield to stop clean exit from the clearance.
Main extractor, someone to go in and win the ball in and under at the coal face.
Aggressive Attacker, the person we are trying to get it to for our best clearance win, excellent distributor.
Roughly thinking about our best mids, how would you class them? (My rankings, in order of importance per role)
Extractors: Neale / Lyons / Berry? / Robertson / Matho
Attackers: McLuggage / Zorko / Bailey
Defensive: ?? M Robbo?
This really leaves a couple unproven players like Rayner / Starcevich / Cockatoo. Rayner is always going to be an attacker, Cockatoo probably never going to have the tank for a serious midfield spot and Starch is a little hail mary really.
I feel like we are still missing something in there to balance out the agressiveness of the midfield unit. That defensive player is a hard one because they need a decent amount of size to tackle the big guys like a Petracca or Dusty. The only mids I trust to do that is Lyons + M Robbo really.
Without trading someone in either, I don't really see how we fill that gap.
Neale and Lyons are both setup as close to the ball as possible, and while they are both extremely good in the clinches if they are getting beaten we really start to fall away. It's no surprise our best year of the last 3 has been when Neale was literally winning every single clearance and racking up 30+ touches a game. The solution here is a tough one though, because we don't really have a defensive minded player In the middle. If I was looking at a balanced midfield group and how I would want it to be, would look something like this.
Defensive Sweeper, someone to act as the release handball out the back of a stoppage, aswell as watching the opposition midfield to stop clean exit from the clearance.
Main extractor, someone to go in and win the ball in and under at the coal face.
Aggressive Attacker, the person we are trying to get it to for our best clearance win, excellent distributor.
Roughly thinking about our best mids, how would you class them? (My rankings, in order of importance per role)
Extractors: Neale / Lyons / Berry? / Robertson / Matho
Attackers: McLuggage / Zorko / Bailey
Defensive: ?? M Robbo?
This really leaves a couple unproven players like Rayner / Starcevich / Cockatoo. Rayner is always going to be an attacker, Cockatoo probably never going to have the tank for a serious midfield spot and Starch is a little hail mary really.
I feel like we are still missing something in there to balance out the agressiveness of the midfield unit. That defensive player is a hard one because they need a decent amount of size to tackle the big guys like a Petracca or Dusty. The only mids I trust to do that is Lyons + M Robbo really.
Without trading someone in either, I don't really see how we fill that gap.
Bit of throwing the baby out with the bathwater here. The results speak for themselves. One of the most consistent teams over 3 years. You do not get to that level if any aspect of your team is too weak. The problem in our finals has always been we were a forward short. In 2019 and 2020 we were too reliant on Charlie Cameron and Hipwood would get double teamed. We added Joe and now our scoring has gone to another level. There was no problem with our ball movement against the Dogs. We had 60 odd inside 50s to 45ish against them. The problem was McStay being concussed and the Payne being knocked out again. From late 2nd quarter to late 4th quarter Alex Keath was roaming free to intercept whilst Joe was being double teamed at every single contest. Fullerton is too young to contest physically. Its no surprise we looked better with Andrews forward late in the 4th. There is not much that can be done when your tall forward cops a freakish head knock 2 weeks in a row.
The idea we need to hit the draft is rubbish. Sam Walsh has taken 3 years to become an AA level player and he was an exceptional talent. Rowell's not reached those heights. Petracca took 5+ years to look reasonable. Our window is now. Drafts are overrated. Say you draft the next Sam Walsh. What happens in 2 years time? You end up paying 700k per year for their next few contracts anyway.
Draft lovers overhype the draft too much. Richmond Dynasty Team 17, 19, 20 named 22 for GFs:
Red = top 20 draft pick
Blue = not drafted in national draft
Also note that only 7 of the 11 top 20 picks were actually drafted by Richmond.
This shows that the Richmond Dynasty team was not built by selling the farm to consistently draft top 20 picks. Its about astute trading and maximising the development of all the talent you draft.
Guys like Cockatoo, Ah Chee, Madden, Payne, Answerth, Coleman etc improving (and hence making our bottom 22 better) is what will improve our finals performance. If we can trade in a high performing talent then we will improve. Drafting some top 20 picks is not going to make a difference.
The idea we need to hit the draft is rubbish. Sam Walsh has taken 3 years to become an AA level player and he was an exceptional talent. Rowell's not reached those heights. Petracca took 5+ years to look reasonable. Our window is now. Drafts are overrated. Say you draft the next Sam Walsh. What happens in 2 years time? You end up paying 700k per year for their next few contracts anyway.
Draft lovers overhype the draft too much. Richmond Dynasty Team 17, 19, 20 named 22 for GFs:
- Backline: Nathan Broad (67 2015 Draft), Alex Rance (18 2007 Draft), Dylan Grimes (2 2010 Pre season draft), Bachar Houli (42 2006 Draft), David Astbury (35 2009 Draft), Nick Vlaustin (9 2012 Draft), Jayden Short (11 Rookie Draft 2015), Liam Baker (18 Rookie Draft 2018), Noah Balta (25, 2017 Draft)
- Mids/followers: Dustin martin (3 2009 Draft), Trent Cotchin (2 2007 Draft), Jacob Townsend (NSW Zone, 32 Rookie Draft 2019), Brandon Ellis (15, 2011 Draft), Dion Prestia (9, 2010 Draft), Josh Caddy (7, 2010 Draft), Marlion Pickett (13 2019 MS Rookie Draft), Toby Nankervis (35, 2013 Draft), Shaun Grigg (19, 2006 Draft), Shane Edwards (26 2006 Draft), Kamdyn McIntosh (31, 2012 Draft)
- Forwards: Dan Butler (67 2014 Draft), Jason Castagna (29, 2015 Rookie Draft), Daniel Rioli (15, 2015 Draft), Kane Lambert (46 2015 Rookie Draft), Tom Lynch (11, 2010 draft), Jack Riewoldt (13, 2006 Draft),
- Bench: Ivan Soldo (68 2015 Rookie Draft), Shai Bolton (29, 2016 Draft), Jack Graham (53, 2016 Draft)
Red = top 20 draft pick
Blue = not drafted in national draft
- Top 20 picks = 11.
- 7 top 20 picks actually drafted by Richmond
- 4 traded in from other teams
- 8 drafted from outside the national draft
- Also note the youngest top 20 pick to play in a premiership team was 5 years outside their draft year (Nick Vlaustin)
Also note that only 7 of the 11 top 20 picks were actually drafted by Richmond.
This shows that the Richmond Dynasty team was not built by selling the farm to consistently draft top 20 picks. Its about astute trading and maximising the development of all the talent you draft.
Guys like Cockatoo, Ah Chee, Madden, Payne, Answerth, Coleman etc improving (and hence making our bottom 22 better) is what will improve our finals performance. If we can trade in a high performing talent then we will improve. Drafting some top 20 picks is not going to make a difference.
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Just looking at your work there, it appears more top end draft talent is in the midfielder.
22% in backline
55% in middle
42% in forward line
Total percentage of top end draft talent 37% so over a 1/3 of the list
Top end is definitely important but only 7/11 ~ 2/3 was drafted by Richmond. Most of the drafted top end talent were 7+ years out of their drafted years. My point was if the answer to improving was the draft then we are looking at another 4+ years until those drafted talents mature.
Rayner, Hipwood, Bailey, Starcevich, Bags, Berry, Rich are top 20 picks we have drafted (similar to Richmond).
We have traded in a couple of top 20 picks (Ah Chee, Daniher, Cockatoo etc)
I think we have enough talent on the list. The way we improve is by developing the talent we have or trading in super talents.
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Our midfield isn't very 'clever' either. Watching footage of the Dogs boys evolve their set up as the game progressed was interesting.
There was footage last night showing how because Oscar was going all Clark Keating on his outs- the Dogs changed their set up, Bont went to hotspots, they didn't protect space they usually would etc their runners re-positioned themselves to attack from a different position.
Feel like our Guys need to be for responsive in games.
The Berry and Clugg playing defensive roles on Brayshaw and Cerra, which set up a massive win, is the sort of nous we don't display often enough.
I don't think we have to do too much different to what we have been doing the last 3 years >
1- Natural improvement from our young guns.
2- Luck re injuries.
3- Tweak our midfield rotations a little, more players running through there, definitely give Starcevich a crack in the next pre season/early rounds.
4- A more dynamic back line, Kiddy Coleman in there has been a great addition.
1- Natural improvement from our young guns.
2- Luck re injuries.
3- Tweak our midfield rotations a little, more players running through there, definitely give Starcevich a crack in the next pre season/early rounds.
4- A more dynamic back line, Kiddy Coleman in there has been a great addition.
Don’t have a answer to your “Plan B” question.
However I remember Tom Hafey being asked why he didn’t move players when they were being beaten. The 1980s, Plan B question. He said something like. “I watch the players at training. I know what they are capable of, I pick a side that I think is the best capable of winning. If they are getting beaten I expect them to fight back and win”. Of course Tommy would have said it dropping the “g” off the ends of words.
Tommy won 4 premierships at Richmond, had a draw and a Phil Carmen brain fart off winning it at the Woods, and turned ordinary sides at the Cats and the Swans into contenders.
The point being, expecting the coach to come up with a game changing plan on the spur of the moment is a bit like a search for a unicorn.
The Lions change approaches from time to time in a game. I have seen them slow the game down, move more players to defence and chip the ball around. Plan B?
A mythical Plan B isn’t going to win a Premiership. Putting a fully fit 22 on the park and instructing the players to play to their individual and team strengths just might.
Hard to judge the quality of the list with the injuries we have had this year, except for saying it would be nice to have better depth.
I agree to the extent that I worry about our ability to take the next step with both Neale and Lyons running through the midfield in the current configuration and their lack of defensive run. We can afford to have one of them hunt the ball with no consideration of defense but two hurts us probably more so than the incremental offense they provide. That is especially the case given neither have particularly high hurt factor with the ball.
With that said I do think we have the ability to really challenge for a premiership next year. When fit both our forward and back groups are elite and that gives us a very good base on which to build and design a game plan. We lead the league in percentage even with the injuries we had this year. With a fit defensive group and the replacement of Birchall with Madden or Ainsworth (who I am not as high on as some but he deserves to be in the conversation) I think we could potentially have the hardest defensive group to score on next year. Premierships are build on defense and we have 2 AAs there, another couple of experienced talls and a group of talented young players who are all very good defensively and potentially have more run than we have had the last couple of years. Adding run from the back will disrupt a lot of defensive structures including those of the other top 4 sides. We have the group to do this we just need to add it to the plan.
Up forward we have a multi pronged attack with dangerous players everywhere. Charlie needs to play with hunger throughout the season and not drop his head and he will be the best small forward in the competition by a wide margin. He needs to hunt the ball and the man. Daniher needs to lead at the ball, not play for soft frees and at least make a semblance of defensive effort. If those two do that, even without Hipwood for most of the year we will be one of the best if not the best forward group in the competition. Credit to McStay for proving me wrong this year. He took marks and kicked straight which he has not done consistently enough previously.
Where I think you were wrong is in saying that Berry is not a good defensive runner. I think he is actually our best defensive runner and actually sacrifices his game a lot to cover for Lyons and Neale. Berry I think will be an important factor if our midfield is to improve next year. He has the size we need and has the ability to win ball and get to space where others do not. At the end of the year I thought he was not getting caught nearly as much as he was earlier in the year so maybe he has been working on his peripheral vision. If he can get back on track we have a player with plenty of upside.
Speaking of upside Rayner is the big wildcard. He looked very good through the middle of the ground and looked primed to take a big step forward. You have discounted the Petracca comparison but I think he has mirrored him pretty closely given the relative opportunities afforded to each given where their clubs have finished in recent years. The injury set him back this year when he looked ready to take the step forward. Whether he takes a big step next year I think is going to come down to whether he has got his running ability up to midfield level. With a year to work on it I hope he has as that is the one factor that I think has been holding him back. Coming back from a knee injury I am not expecting him to transform into one of the best mids in the competition but if he comes in and gives us 30% of impactful midfield time then he could change the dynamic of that group.
Speaking of running I am going to be interested to see what work Sharp has done during his recovery. I watched him pretty closely before the injury and I thought he struggled with his running a bit. He has the tank but I think he needs to work on his repeat sprints to both get off the mark quicker but also to increase his ability to get used to the different running requirements of the AFL. Once he is up and going he is not getting run down and can just run around guys with ease. If they can get his positioning right to receive he could give us a different element in our go foward and cover enough ground to help shut down quick opposition attacks.
Bailey is the other one who I think could improve the team next year. Before this year he often played as a mid who predominantly worked back to help the defensive unit. He did a very nice job of that and you regularly saw him deep in defense. This year he played more often as a forward of centre mid and he was very dangerous. Now we just need him to improve his tank another couple of notches and combine the two. Having him getting back and helping the defense but also forward to kick those goals that made him so dangerous this year.
So for me I think we need to do the following to win a premiership next year:
1. Focus on making our defense a defensive wall first and foremost. Build from there and to do so I would want them to disregard names and work out what works best for the team rather than who might individually be better (e.g. I would have no trouble having Payne play over Gardner because I think that would allow Andrews to be the dominating presence at the back and although Gardner might individually have the edge at this stage Payne is close enough to be in the conversation and he covers the very big forwards better).
2. Add run from the back. Madden, Coleman and Starcevich can attack quickly and gaining 20 or 30m before kicking can disrupt defenses a great deal. So maintain our current approach but add a new string.
3. Make sure our forward's heads are in the game every game and get them to hunt the opposition defenders. Make sure they are leading at the ball.
4. Work hard on running for our midfield group in the offseason especially the younger unit. A lot of our potentially success relies on a few key individuals upping their running. That being the case there is no reason why the whole unit should not focus on it. If they all go up then I think it would be transformative. Most of the guys are young enough that they have a couple of gears left yet to find.
Pikeyfromprops
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Maybe I am a little old school and I know it's a different game now but I think we need some good old fashioned mongrel like the 3 peat team. U had the kray twins vossy hard as nails, Chris Johnson who had half of Ireland running scared, uncle Martin and dont forget browny apart from mitch robbo we have no one putting the fear into the opposition
PattyKwasagun
Norm Smith Medallist
Not entirely sure you could say Richmond had a heap of those types though. Maybe Geelong do, but I don’t think any of the other 3 left this year do either.
Not sure why starce is a hail mary. Played mid as a junior. Has all the tools to address our issues: speed, size, strength. Great disposal. And has been a gun down back so his development has been excellent. Absolute no-brainer to put midfield. Plenty of options in the backline to replace him.
Being in your best form and relatively injury free going into the finals gives you a massive start where the other top teams are so evenly matched.
Rather than speculate who or what we need having that puts you in the box seat. Like Melbourne this year.
Rather than speculate who or what we need having that puts you in the box seat. Like Melbourne this year.
Likewise most of the time you have to make do with what you have.
It's all very well saying we need a big strong mid like a Bont/Dangerfield/Petracca . Try finding one. Or getting one from someone else.
The team we have now is basically our team going forward and we have to make them as good and as fit as they can be.
I think the biggest bonuses for us are if a Sharp say comes out of nowhere to give us a spark. Bailey becomes a midfield gun . Adams stays fit and continues to improve. Harris gets back to what he can be. The way people overrate Rayner seriously does my head in. When he starts doing something consistently across 4 quarters and gets votes in games then we might be on to something.
Overall we're good enough to be contenders. With continued improvement from our current list and fit and well we're capable. A big signing of a gun player would be nice but ain't gunna happen as far as I can tell.
It's all very well saying we need a big strong mid like a Bont/Dangerfield/Petracca . Try finding one. Or getting one from someone else.
The team we have now is basically our team going forward and we have to make them as good and as fit as they can be.
I think the biggest bonuses for us are if a Sharp say comes out of nowhere to give us a spark. Bailey becomes a midfield gun . Adams stays fit and continues to improve. Harris gets back to what he can be. The way people overrate Rayner seriously does my head in. When he starts doing something consistently across 4 quarters and gets votes in games then we might be on to something.
Overall we're good enough to be contenders. With continued improvement from our current list and fit and well we're capable. A big signing of a gun player would be nice but ain't gunna happen as far as I can tell.
mattsmob
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I don't think it's people saying Rayner is a star, it's more he's shown the ability to do all the things that the great big bodied, explosive mids can do. He can win a hard ball, break a tackle, explode out the front of a contest and he's probably a better kick than most of them. I get he hasn't done it for a full game but we need to remember the horrible role he's been stuck in for most of his career, he's hasn't been in a position to get big numbers or really involve himself in a game.
TS13
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I also hope expectations are tapered when it comes to Rayner next year, he's coming off an ACL and took Petracca a few years before coming back to develop into his best footy. I totally agree that as fans, we see those glimpses and think he can be the answer, but Pies fans have been waiting for JDG to turn into that game breaking midfielder for 2 seasons now.
pulpdriver
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That's fair, it is probably likely that ACL results in a bit of a gap year as he gets confidence back in his movement and spends more time up forward than he was prepping to this year. Do want to see a change in our midfield balance though. Clugg, Bailey, Berry and Robertson all likely to up their time spent there (Starce too, perhaps?) which I think will add a new dynamic to the mix.
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