Where will we finish in 2025?

[PattyKwasagun]

Well sorry for offering a positive opinion. ‘Likely?’, 6 or 7 times in 24 years, hardly ‘likely’.

To be fair, that is a pretty significant stat. For a team to be the best in the competition one year and then not in the top eight sides the following year that often is odd.

It suggests that finding the hunger to go again after you've achieved the ultimate success might be something that takes a little while. With how long the climb was for us, I wouldn't be shocked if we did have a little bit of a dip next season before going again in the following years.

I'm not expecting it, but don't think it would be shocking if it did happen.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

To be fair, that is a pretty significant stat. For a team to be the best in the competition one year and then not in the top eight sides the following year that often is odd.

It suggests that finding the hunger to go again after you've achieved the ultimate success might be something that takes a little while. With how long the climb was for us, I wouldn't be shocked if we did have a little bit of a dip next season before going again in the following years.

I'm not expecting it, but don't think it would be shocking if it did happen.

If something is likely would that not mean it happens more often than not? Our home ground advantage is huge and yes we losing Joe but we are we going to go from the best team in the comp to ninth? Not a chance.

 

[Nathan Barley]

If something is likely would that not mean it happens more often than not? Our home ground advantage is huge and yes we losing Joe but we are we going to go from the best team in the comp to ninth? Not a chance.

We've gone from second best to 11th before

 

[PattyKwasagun]

If something is likely would that not mean it happens more often than not? Our home ground advantage is huge and yes we losing Joe but we are we going to go from the best team in the comp to ninth? Not a chance.

I'm definitely not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that it's much more likely than it logically should be.

For it to happen once would be noteworthy enough - falling from the best team in the competition one year to not even in the top eight the following year is quite a dramatic drop. Particularly when you consider the confidence boost that you'd expect winning a flag would give a group.

For it to have happened in four of the last eight seasons is almost hard to comprehend, and suggests that the mental game of backing up from a premiership might be much harder than we generally appreciate.

I don't think any of those other premiers who missed the finals the following year would have expected it, in the same way we aren't expecting it now. I'm also not saying I think it is the most likely outcome. But I don't think it can be dismissed as a realistic possibility looking at those stats, despite how strong our list might look.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

We've gone from second best to 11th before

Rightio mate, you can believe we are ‘likely’ to miss finals, I going to back them in because they are a fun side. You do you

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Rightio mate, you can believe we are ‘likely’ to miss finals, I going to back them in because they are a fun side. You do you

*gun side

 

[jonnobackpocket]

I'm definitely not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that it's much more likely than it logically should be.

For it to happen once would be noteworthy enough - falling from the best team in the competition one year to not even in the top eight the following year is quite a dramatic drop. Particularly when you consider the confidence boost that you'd expect winning a flag would give a group.

For it to have happened in four of the last eight seasons is almost hard to comprehend, and suggests that the mental game of backing up from a premiership might be much harder than we generally appreciate.

I don't think any of those other premiers who missed the finals the following year would have expected it, in the same way we aren't expecting it now. I'm also not saying I think it is the most likely outcome. But I don't think it can be dismissed as a realistic possibility looking at those stats, despite how strong our list might look.

Well I guess we will see- I was responding to Barley suggesting it was ‘likely’.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Rightio mate, you can believe we are ‘likely’ to miss finals, I going to back them in because they are a fun side. You do you

That was tongue in cheek but based on very recent history suggests it is likely as opposed to absolutely 0 chance as you suggested

 

[Tom14]

Starting 2-1 instead of 0-3 might make it easier

Will be easier if we avoid losing 4 home games too.

Plenty of scope to have a better home and away season record despite losses and potential for loss of 'hunger' - we underperformed and lost more games than we should have.

Top 6 and we'll go out in either the semi or prelim I think.

 

[Dalions]

That was tongue in cheek but based on very recent history suggests it is likely as opposed to absolutely 0 chance as you suggested

I think it all suggests to a lack of intensity during Pre-season.
Blokes being satisfied and still stuck in last years glory.
Let’s hope our boys still have that burning desire which I think the bulk of the group will. We also have the added benefit of a few who missed out who will be extremely motivated.

 

[DevRoboGun]

I hope Fages starts the first day of pre-season with something like this:

"Since 1900, from every premiership player, what % have won 2?" - it will be something like less than 5%

"Of these, how many have gone back to back?" - it will be something like less than 2%

Opens up a new challenge and shows that statistically they are next to no chance of going B2B

 

[McIvor]

Interesting comment from Damo:

The Lions couldn’t find a big-name replacement for Daniher in the recent trade period, but rival clubs believe they already have sorted out that problem for 2026, with an established goalkicker already on the trade hook.

 

[Dalions]

Interesting comment from Damo:

An established Goal Kicker!

 

[martinson]

Trying to take my emotion out of it we've been in a Prelim and 2 GF's in the last 3 years. So we have the experience.

Our list is right in the predominant percentile of age maturity to be in a flag window. Plus that should be maintained with a couple of younger players coming in next year.

So unless motivation falls off a cliff we'll be contending next year.

 

[pod17]

I think we also need to prepare accordingly for Opening Round next year. 6 less weeks off isn’t insignificant, and I wonder if it contributed to our slow start this year. Pies too.

 

[martinson]

I think we also need to prepare accordingly for Opening Round next year. 6 less weeks off isn’t insignificant, and I wonder if it contributed to our slow start this year. Pies too.

Things have changed a lot in the education and preparation of players in this era. I think we were prepared last year physically but mentally we just clocked off for nearly half a season. I'd be surprised if we aren't up for those early games.

 

[pod17]

Things have changed a lot in the education and preparation of players in this era. I think we were prepared last year physically but mentally we just clocked off for nearly half a season. I'd be surprised if we aren't up for those early games.

True, though I guess I was reflecting on an article I read about the Cats sending players in for surgery as soon as the season ended last year to have them ready to go as soon as possible.
Any additional time to refresh and add a block of specific training would surely be advantageous on some level.

 

[martinson]

True, though I guess I was reflecting on an article I read about the Cats sending players in for surgery as soon as the season ended last year to have them ready to go as soon as possible.
Any additional time to refresh and add a block of specific training would surely be advantageous on some level.

For sure. It's not advantageous to play in the GF as far as the early rounds of the next year go.

But for the younger guys they can't wait to get out there again.

We've had to do it the last 3 years so we'll be on top of whatever the issues might be.

 

[McLuggages]

I seriously think we'll go back to back.

They're obviously very hard to win and other clubs will be right up for the fight - GWS, Cats, Swans, Blues, Dogs, Freo in particular.

Why we'll be better next year:

• Our game plan since the bye, and in particular in finals was - pressure felt off, ball movement was sharp and I don't see why we can'd do that most weeks next year
• We had less than half a season with Will Ashcroft.
• Lohmann, Wilmott, Fletcher, Rayner Ashcroft, Starc, Ah Chee are just scratching the surface of what they'll be from the 2H of this year.
• Neale played half the season injured. Payne too.
• We played an AFL game with Hipwood at full back, and multiple with Joyce - that won't happen next year.
• The 5 ACLs make our current 23rd player (Reville/McKenna) the 28th player - Levi/Marshall may actually make them 30th.
• We can't have a worse start, nor a harder fixture than the start of this year (Blues, Freo away, Pies, Giants away, Cats, Dees away - all whilst in form).
• Get the Gabba fortress back
• No Nashville (Vegas) scandal
• Bailey and Cameron had off years.
• Hunger for the guys that missed - Linc, Dizzy, Oscar, Kiddy, Doedee

Why we'll be worse:

• Losing Joe as a 2nd ruck, and important forward.

 

[Dalions]

Why we'll be worse:

• Losing Joe as a 2nd ruck, and important forward.

I’ll add to this and say Premiership hangover

I really hope not but it is a thing!

 

[Sproj]

I’ll add to this and say Premiership hangover

I really hope not but it is a thing!

Counter point - we won it by playing a half season this year, so if we can wake up from the hangover a quarter of the way in instead next year, should be fine.

I do honestly expect us to start slow again.

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

Sydney are going to be the sliders. I don’t think we’ve reached our ceiling. I’d also argue we funnily enough had our off year this year! Poorest first half of a season in 7 years. We’ll buck the trend for recent premiers and at least contend again.

 

[mpal6]

I seriously think we'll go back to back.

They're obviously very hard to win and other clubs will be right up for the fight - GWS, Cats, Swans, Blues, Dogs, Freo in particular.

Why we'll be better next year:

• Our game plan since the bye, and in particular in finals was - pressure felt off, ball movement was sharp and I don't see why we can'd do that most weeks next year
• We had less than half a season with Will Ashcroft.
• Lohmann, Wilmott, Fletcher, Rayner Ashcroft, Starc, Ah Chee are just scratching the surface of what they'll be from the 2H of this year.
• Neale played half the season injured. Payne too.
• We played an AFL game with Hipwood at full back, and multiple with Joyce - that won't happen next year.
• The 5 ACLs make our current 23rd player (Reville/McKenna) the 28th player - Levi/Marshall may actually make them 30th.
• We can't have a worse start, nor a harder fixture than the start of this year (Blues, Freo away, Pies, Giants away, Cats, Dees away - all whilst in form).
• Get the Gabba fortress back
• No Nashville (Vegas) scandal
• Bailey and Cameron had off years.
• Hunger for the guys that missed - Linc, Dizzy, Oscar, Kiddy, Doedee

Why we'll be worse:

• Losing Joe as a 2nd ruck, and important forward.

I'm subscribed to Fagan's school of thought here - you need a mountain of moments going your way to win one, let alone going back to back. Just looking through our win this year

• could've easily lost to GWS. That game alone had so many moments not just on our players like Daniher but theirs too, like Daniels having a brainfade and kicking a behind
• Geelong game was equally tough
• Payne returning at the right time and staying on park for finals
• Ashcroft going up a few gears in finals, same with Ah Chee
• Us finding the dual game style, run n gun chaos ball in finals which caught out other teams and we managed to execute it perfectly
• Hawks, our bogey team, losing in semi

I can keep going but you get the idea. I have no doubt we can put ourselves in a good spot to win one more - like a top 4 finish. But we need a truckload of things go our way in finals before we actually get there.

Everytime I think about this topic, my respect for our triple premiership team goes even higher.

 

[McIvor]

I'm subscribed to Fagan's school of thought here - you need a mountain of moments going your way to win one, let alone going back to back. Just looking through our win this year

• could've easily lost to GWS. That game alone had so many moments not just on our players like Daniher but theirs too, like Daniels having a brainfade and kicking a behind
• Geelong game was equally tough
• Payne returning at the right time and staying on park for finals
• Ashcroft going up a few gears in finals, same with Ah Chee
• Us finding the dual game style, run n gun chaos ball in finals which caught out other teams and we managed to execute it perfectly
• Hawks, our bogey team, losing in semi

I can keep going but you get the idea. I have no doubt we can put ourselves in a good spot to win one more - like a top 4 finish. But we need a truckload of things go our way in finals before we actually get there.

Everytime I think about this topic, my respect for our triple premiership team goes even higher.

Lots of considered posts in this thread, but fortunately, this group won 'one.'

My biggest concern throughout this 19-24 period and even beyond was what a waste it would have been had Fages and this group not won one. It pissed me off to no end how so many of the media, led by King and Lloyd were always laying the boot and wanting us to fail, so to get one in the bag is a relief and IMO, finally frees the group up (no idea whether or how much pressure was within the group) to go again with swagger and abundance.

Sure Joe is now gone, but there's an injection of very high end talent and some exceptional players to return that missed out due to injury that the standards and squeeze for spots surely only elevates our hunger.

Yes, a lot had to and did go right to win 24 as your post eloquently points out, but I see no reason as Damo's article points out why / how standards slip that much where we don't finish top six and give ourselves another shot. As we only know too well, anything can happen in September, you've just got to get yourselves there which I'm confident we will in 25.

 

[Nunez]

Neale
Dunkley
McCluggage
Ashcroft
Rayner
Ashcroft

Berry, Bailey, Fletcher on the wings

I just don't see a reality where that midfield doesn't make the top 8, and realistically it is a top 2-3 midfield in the comp. It would be one thing if we had a poor backline and forward line, but we don't. Our biggest pain point is how will we cover a ruck/forward.

Yes, I oversimplified the loss of Joe, but realistically we will plan and execute a strategy that will cover for him.

Injuries could curtail our chances, but if we are discussing this hypothetical in the sense that our best 23 will be available, then I really don't see this group falling off a cliff and not making the 8. There's just too much talent and too many guys who missed out that the other boys will want to get a premiership medal.