How the AFL lost the battle for Sydney

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15 years is about right. Most hard-core fans of any sport or team grow up with that sport or team, so you're targeting school kids. A 12 year old in 2011 is 23 now. A young adult with other interests. Give it another ten years and they'll start having kids. 15 and their kids start school themselves. It's that second generation that will start to solidify the Giants.

That the difference between heartland & one of many sports. If 15 years get a niche, its a success - it took the Swans 25 years for a flag & success is another milestone in a sporting market.
Aussies love winners.
 
check out Hotelling's law. Part of the reason the AFL have the teams in NSW is also to take away potential fans from the NRL which reduces their ability to push into Victoria.

i'm sure you felt clever using the phrase concord fallacy though when sunk cost would do :thumbsu:
I didn't feel clever to be honest.

And sunk cost is sunk cost.

It becomes a concord when u continue to throw money at it 20 years later.

I'm still advocating for the 2 teams.

Just saying a Sydney team and Canberra/ACT team.

No reason swans cant do community work and kids clinics etc in western sydney.

I'm not suggesting totally abandoning WS. Just being more efficient with resources.

Also keep in mind Canberra has had decent population growth this last decade.

ACT population now 467,000.
Similarity to Tassie.
 
Would anybody seriously suggest there's ever been a proper "battle" for Sydney? It's a rugby league city - the biggest rugby league city in the world, really - and the AFL has just made a lot of attempts to take a bit of the pie.

I reckon most Sydney people would consider "the battle" similar to the NRL's "battle" for Melbourne. Establishing a presence as best you can over decades for the purposes of broadcasting dollars etc... but a "battle" conjures up two sides going at it to win. The AFL will not "win" Sydney. Not within a century anyway.
 

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I did two markets on the weekend and was surprised at what I saw.

Saturday I was at Cobbitty which is on the south-western fringe of the metro area, there was one whole family wearing Penrith jumpers & caps, 3-4 other people had Penrith caps or t-shirts on. I don't recall seeing anyone wearing Parramatta colours apart from one old bloke who had a cap on.

On Sunday I was at Summer Hill which is well & truly the 'inner west' and the only RL thing I saw was a guy with a retro Eels jumper, that was it for the whole day.

Ironically, I saw at least 15-20 people across the weekend wearing Swans merch .......... make of that what you will.
 
Would anybody seriously suggest there's ever been a proper "battle" for Sydney? It's a rugby league city - the biggest rugby league city in the world, really - and the AFL has just made a lot of attempts to take a bit of the pie.

I reckon most Sydney people would consider "the battle" similar to the NRL's "battle" for Melbourne. Establishing a presence as best you can over decades for the purposes of broadcasting dollars etc... but a "battle" conjures up two sides going at it to win. The AFL will not "win" Sydney. Not within a century anyway.
You'd be surprised at the amount of people in Sydney who actively follow AFL.

Where I l worked in Surrey Hills, only the New Zealanders cared about Rugby and that was Union. Everyone else in the office was into AFL.

These weren't all young people either. Some were 50+ and NSW born and bred.

I imagine it's vastly different out west with the islander population though.
 
You mean 80/20 RL/AFL?

Also agree AFL has made zero progress in WS.

I'd move GWS to Canberra. GWS is a white elephant and classic example of "Concord fallacy".

Northern Sydney is definitely not 80/20 NRL/AFL.
 
AFLs issue with Western Sydney is that the nrl won't play ball.
Compare the giants in nsw with the storm in Melbourne
The AFL actively cross promotes the sport, often having clubs work with the storm.

You're lucky in nsw if the nrl ever acknowledge the afl though


There is a pretty simple reason for that.

Perhaps prefaced by the understanding that the Storm would never be anything more than a niche part of Melbourne’s sporting landscape, their existence was never ever floated as some sort of declaration of war on the AFL in its heartland or something. It was putting a rugby league presence in a big city famous for its love of sport and its worked a treat. Melbourne aren’t ever going to need to use the MCG to host matches but they get decent consistent crowds and their onfield efforts are supreme.

The Giants whether officially or not, were always part of a code war to try and wrestle some control of Sydney’s west away from its rugby league attachment and grow a bigger market for AFL.

So people who are rusted-on league fans are never going to become casual 5-game-a-year fans
 
You'd be surprised at the amount of people in Sydney who actively follow AFL.

Where I l worked in Surrey Hills, only the New Zealanders cared about Rugby and that was Union. Everyone else in the office was into AFL.

These weren't all young people either. Some were 50+ and NSW born and bred.

I imagine it's vastly different out west with the islander population though.


That’s never been a huge rugby league hotbed. It’s not far away from traditional heartland but it’s not in it
 
People think in such short terms and black and white outcomes with these things. There doesn’t have to be only winners and only losers, just growth over time.

Rugby League will not weaken in its prime markets. What can happen over time is the whole market grows and AFL builds within its communities and becomes gradually more self-sustaining. It doesn’t just take decades, it takes generations. But it does work when it is sustained.

The battle is not lost, because it is a demographic battle, not a sporting one. The key numbers aren’t dollars but people and families over time.
 
That’s never been a huge rugby league hotbed. It’s not far away from traditional heartland but it’s not in it
Oh the staff didn't live in Surrey Hills. One bloke travelled from Woolloongong every day and was a die-hard Swans supporter. Had a few other Swans supporters and the boss was a Geelong fan, even though he was from Brisbane originally.
 

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The 2022 NRL grand final has proven a ratings flop, with historically low numbers tuning in for Sunday evening’s contest between the Penrith Panthers and Parramatta Eels at Accor Stadium.

According to MediaWeek, 2,367,000 fans tuned in nationally for the one-sided match, making it the smallest NRL grand final television audience on record.

Looks like Josh Alston shouldn’t have counted his chickens.

AFL out rated NRL grand final. There were only slightly lsss viewers watching the AFL grand final in Sydney than viewers in Brisbane for NRL grand final. Queensland is meant to be rugby heartland!
 
Oh the staff didn't live in Surrey Hills. One bloke travelled from Woolloongong every day and was a die-hard Swans supporter. Had a few other Swans supporters and the boss was a Geelong fan, even though he was from Brisbane originally.

Don’t take this as an insult but it would take a certain type of person to seek employment in Surrey hills. That’s not a put down just a demographic observation.

Same as anyone seeking residence or employment in Newtown post about 1990 would certainly be a specific type of person
 
Don’t take this as an insult but it would take a certain type of person to seek employment in Surrey hills. That’s not a put down just a demographic observation.

Same as anyone seeking residence or employment in Newtown post about 1990 would certainly be a specific type of person
Oh I get it.

Mind you, some of those housing commission areas in Surrey are straight out of Compton...
 





Looks like Josh Alston shouldn’t have counted his chickens.

AFL out rated NRL grand final. There were only slightly lsss viewers watching the AFL grand final in Sydney than viewers in Brisbane for NRL grand final. Queensland is meant to be rugby heartland!

There are two Queenslands. South East Queensland is not true heartland in the traditional sense these days. Rugby League is still bigger in the public consciousness but not to the extent it once was. AFL is very widely accepted. The rest of Queensland is very much rugby league heartland but SE Qld is becoming increasingly different demographically and AFL is well established now. Not hard at all to find AFL fans between Tweed Heads and Noosa.
 
Don’t take this as an insult but it would take a certain type of person to seek employment in Surrey hills. That’s not a put down just a demographic observation.

Same as anyone seeking residence or employment in Newtown post about 1990 would certainly be a specific type of person

The employer chooses the location, not the jobseeker in my view.
 
In regards to the AFL and the NRL being ratings flops, to a neutral like myself, i watched half of each game and when it looked to be a blow out went and did something else. Thought they were both average games.
 
This isn't a battle as everyone is running a completely different race.

Rugby League is trying to fend off the growth of AFL.
Rugby Union is trying to resonate themselves to the common man (or women) from their traditionally/stereotype demographic of upper class snobbery.
Aussie Rules is just trying to get a foothold in a new market (WS) whilst building on the massive growth of the last 40 years in Sydney.

The Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore is already ingrained with Swans already with the only difference is these people will just as likely go to the Wallabies as the Swans provided it is an 'event'.
Out West however, you can't play people to go to GWS games as it is all RL. These people won't even be open to it.

The Swans are a lot bigger and important to Sydney than non-residents think. GWS however just needs a lot of time.
 
This isn't a battle as everyone is running a completely different race.

Rugby League is trying to fend off the growth of AFL.
Rugby Union is trying to resonate themselves to the common man (or women) from their traditionally/stereotype demographic of upper class snobbery.
Aussie Rules is just trying to get a foothold in a new market (WS) whilst building on the massive growth of the last 40 years in Sydney.

The Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore is already ingrained with Swans already with the only difference is these people will just as likely go to the Wallabies as the Swans provided it is an 'event'.
Out West however, you can't play people to go to GWS games as it is all RL. These people won't even be open to it.

The Swans are a lot bigger and important to Sydney than non-residents think. GWS however just needs a lot of time.
The Swans definitely took a lot of union fans who for whatever reason (sick of the Tahs/Wallabies getting belted, not enough content etc.) had enough and as you say are looking for an "event"

The Bradman and Noble stands are all chino and boot types and you can sort of tell the Sydney crowd doesn't really know when to cheer/boo like they do in Melbourne (the South Melb fans are fewer but a lot louder)
 

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How the AFL lost the battle for Sydney

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