In 24 of the last 28 years, a team who missed the finals has finished top-4 the next year. 33 teams in total over 28 years. Who will it be?

[HBFlanker]

We play 4 games against North and Hawthorn. That alone gets us 4 wins.

Will only need another 2-3 wins to keep us from bottom 4.

Wont happen

I can guarantee you dont win all four of them. Absolutely guarantee it.

 

[Jojay]

If we had a new coach, I'd say Port but nah... we'll shit the bed again.

Has to be the Blues.

 

[lacrow]

You can build a competent side out of breath of talent, hard work and game plan, but a terrific young list to me needs promising players in the positions that matter most. I’m a big Thilthorpe fan but he’s still a year away, I’m less of a fan of the crows key backs or mids. Dawson’s the games best utility but can only be one place at a time.

And in a thread of the context of making top 4 I just don’t see it at all with Adelaide this year. My prediction is they’ll still keep falling short against the best teams.

Absolutely best case scenario would be the season Freo just had. Whilst Freo were still a bit off the pace last year with key forwards they had elite tall backs, 2 highly skilled mids in Brayshaw and Serong, a higher quality ruck and more depth to their runners. Plus a more proven coach and defensive system. That’s the best case for the Crows and it’s still not top 4.

While this is not a terrible analysis, I would have disagreed with your initial statement, at least about the forward line.

Fogarty finally broke out last year and tbh if he continues on like that, will be a complete monster up forward. Plus you have Thilthorpe, Rankine, Tex (yes, over 32), probably Sloane on HF line too. So if you're looking at the Crows then the Forward line is probably the least of our worries.

Midfield.. really need Berry, Schoenberg, Rachele, etc. to make a leap in the midfield to help Rory Laird and Keayes out. And the backline.... Doedee, Dawson are quality, probably Brodie Smith too if he can get back to his better form. Brown WAS a pretty good small defender too.

So, all in all a lot of IF's there, but Forward line is the one place I'm probably least worried about.

 

[Bianconeri]

Would think Carlton, probably should have made the top 4 last year if they didn’t go to shit in second half of the season. They definitely have enough quality on their list.

 

[Xtreme]

Hawthorn

One of the few teams that walloped the 2022 premiers. We will divide and conquer on our way to the premiership in 2023!!

 

[Munga]

Good topic for a poll...

 

[JPetro83]

Port should with that list

 

[Dan26]

Good topic for a poll...

I've added a poll. You can select more than one response.

 

[Coach_Required]

Where's the NONE option?

 

[Dan26]

Where's the NONE option?

The poll isnt asking which teams WILL make the the top 4 (in which case “none” would be a valid option). It is asking which teams are conceivably capable of making the top-4, which means you can select teams who you don’t necessarily think will make it, but “could” make it. I picked 5 teams for example even though I know that most (or all) of them probably won’t make it. Historically, at least one and maybe 2 will make it.

 

[btdg]

On Carlton, as much as i hold out hope, lets not forget how badly we shat the bed in the second half of last year. IMO there is a non zero chance that we look back on the first half of last year as just a new coach bounce.

I am going to throw out a roughy - I think Essendon have the potential to make a run.

Their midfield is solid: Parish, McGrath, Merrett plus others is an underrated group who have been getting better. Draper is a potential breakout ruckman. Forward line can hopefully trot out Wright, Jones and Stringer as tall targets, and have Tippa back. The backline doesn't really have the names, but good teams have a way of making their backline look good.

Throw in a new and experienced coach (not one I am a huge fan of, but an upgrade on last year) and I could see them having a good year or two.

 

[Swanks McSwankserton]

Dang its interesting going through the OP and seeing just how many of these historical climbers feel so unpredictable. All of these teams had issues they for one reason or another managed to overcome. And they were largely overcome during the offseason without anyone being able to really notice it till the season was underway (though a handful who proclaim they did will boast so loudly).

Not a whole lot of new head coaches or big marquee signings seem to be the difference either, despite accepted footy knowledge saying this should be what turns a team around.

I suppose like most Ill hedge on Carlton or Port Adelaide, but its fun thinking that some hopeless team from last year I couldnt pick has already become a top 4 quality team and we simply havent noticed it yet

 

[jdstorm]

On Carlton, as much as i hold out hope, lets not forget how badly we shat the bed in the second half of last year. IMO there is a non zero chance that we look back on the first half of last year as just a new coach bounce.

I am going to throw out a roughy - I think Essendon have the potential to make a run.

Their midfield is solid: Parish, McGrath, Merrett plus others is an underrated group who have been getting better. Draper is a potential breakout ruckman. Forward line can hopefully trot out Wright, Jones and Stringer as tall targets, and have Tippa back. The backline doesn't really have the names, but good teams have a way of making their backline look good.

Throw in a new and experienced coach (not one I am a huge fan of, but an upgrade on last year) and I could see them having a good year or two.

It’s an interesting pick. Just one I don’t think too many would be bold enough to make given the hype they started with last season.

They have the easiest draw in the comp which always helps,

McGrath has been moved into the backline because he’s not a good enough midfielder (which bodes well for team depth) and also gives the defence another mature body.

The biggest question facing their list is where are they finding goals and will they still be able to get enough forward pressure. To keep the ball in their front half.

They’d need a lot to go right with player development/breakouts to be in the conversation.

 

[PCORF]

Carlton, Port probably the best chance on the list. But there are always surprises.

 

[Dan26]

So, how do we think this is tracking after round 6. Saints? Bombers? Crows? Port? Blues?

 

[Outtatym]

Surely at least Stkilda from here

 

[00Stinger]

If we had a new coach, I'd say Port but nah... we'll s**t the bed again.

Has to be the Blues.

Nah the Port list isn't as good as it's supporters think it is

 

[My Tilly]

Can Port get it done?

 

[demondavey]

Can Port get it done?

Easily. They’ll probably win the flag of the umpires don’t give it to Collingwood. Hopefully Brisbane v Port GF.

 

[Dazb86]

Easily. They’ll probably win the flag of the umpires don’t give it to Collingwood. Hopefully Brisbane v Port GF.

Still think the deez best is probably the best in the league. Whether they can produce it for 3/4 weeks in a row is another story.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Easily. They’ll probably win the flag of the umpires don’t give it to Collingwood. Hopefully Brisbane v Port GF.

You are salty

 

[demondavey]

You are salty

‘Salty’

You’re about 12

 

[adammania9]

Still think the deez best is probably the best in the league. Whether they can produce it for 3/4 weeks in a row is another story.

Whether they can do it for 3-4 quarters is another story. Their only win against a top 10 side so far came in round one

 

[janty]

I was going to say North but the controversial loss today might put an end to that.

 

[Maddo11]

Swans out port in seems the obvious one