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Opinion INTERNATIONAL Politics: Adelaide Board Discussion Part 5
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- Nov 6, 2014
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Have you noticed..Mutineer has gone verrry quiet over the last few hours
Kane McGoodwin
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At the time of the 1st debate, there really wasn't anyone worthy of voting for.
Now the Democrats have a smart candidate who can actually finish sentences, there is a clear choice.
dogs105
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dogs105
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The debate was more spectacular than I could ever Imagine.
If you put aside all the rhetoric, Trump proved he is unable to move past talking to his MAGA base. I really dont care which side of politics you land on, the key to the election is the swing states. We also need to remember Trump has driven away a 3rd of his voters. Which means there is a very real chance Trump struggles to get to 60m votes. Accounting for the odd new ones he picked up. But the swing states are the ultimate guide and they are swing states for a reason.
Harris is up in all but 2 of the swing states right now. I dont think anyone could mount a case to suggest Trumps debate performance would win over enough of those states and bring in new voters. Even die hards like Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro have stated on X this was not a great Trump performance. But to a sense they are also right that I dont think Kamala landed enough of a blow. But she rattled him really badly and Trump essentially shit the bed.
Trump and Fox are trying to get Harris to agree to a third debate hosted by mods of Trumps choice. Its clearly a trap as the mods would spend the whole time attacking Kamala and gifting Trump free reign to say anything. The fact for Harris is she doesnt need to do another debate. She is winning the election and likely the swing states on the back of this debate. Trump on the other hand needs another debate to talk more policy and less crazy. He will lose without one. While I do think Harris should do another one, Fox would be an arrogant disaster that would be a huge mistake.
If you put aside all the rhetoric, Trump proved he is unable to move past talking to his MAGA base. I really dont care which side of politics you land on, the key to the election is the swing states. We also need to remember Trump has driven away a 3rd of his voters. Which means there is a very real chance Trump struggles to get to 60m votes. Accounting for the odd new ones he picked up. But the swing states are the ultimate guide and they are swing states for a reason.
Harris is up in all but 2 of the swing states right now. I dont think anyone could mount a case to suggest Trumps debate performance would win over enough of those states and bring in new voters. Even die hards like Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro have stated on X this was not a great Trump performance. But to a sense they are also right that I dont think Kamala landed enough of a blow. But she rattled him really badly and Trump essentially shit the bed.
Trump and Fox are trying to get Harris to agree to a third debate hosted by mods of Trumps choice. Its clearly a trap as the mods would spend the whole time attacking Kamala and gifting Trump free reign to say anything. The fact for Harris is she doesnt need to do another debate. She is winning the election and likely the swing states on the back of this debate. Trump on the other hand needs another debate to talk more policy and less crazy. He will lose without one. While I do think Harris should do another one, Fox would be an arrogant disaster that would be a huge mistake.
Kane McGoodwin
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Trump's slogan should be Make America Dumb Again, as he would only get back in with a higher proportion lower IQ voters voting.
I heard that Trump & Harris met for the 1st time at the debate. Is this true as sounds astounding?
I heard that Trump & Harris met for the 1st time at the debate. Is this true as sounds astounding?
Well they should have met for the inauguration. But Trump was having a dummy spit.
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Lol this is good. Miller is an absolute POS. More reporters need to ask questions like this and hold them to account.
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I love the way she walked over to him as she walked on stage, forced him to shake her hand and said I am Kamala Harris. Power move.
Damn, he's a little unhinged
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They’re eating their own now.
MTG and Loomer.
MTG and Loomer.
Some good points mate. Where did you get this from? 'Trump has driven away a 3rd of his voters'
I agree strategically for Harris to not do another debate unless its on the SAME TERMS (ie abc or a more impartial network than the crazies on Fox). She has thrown out the challenge and with her owning him so badly it may not even be accepted by Trump is my gut feeling anyway (which looks good for Harris). If Trump accepts and insists on Fox - likely request - she can just walk away from the offer.
Most swing states are very even and the debate clearly Harris won but there is still a long way to go for both candidates. The margins are all effectively within the margin of error (4%). Remember we had 3 elections/referendums in a row a few years ago that were massively long odds to win but each case came off - ScoMo over Shorten, Trump over Clinton and Brexit. Certainly not counting chickens yet. Also, with the general negative perception of Trump in popular culture/most media if anything people being polled are LESS likely to say they support him and more often will say undecided from my understanding. Historically the bookies - all basically the same odds globally from what I have seen - are MUCH more accurate and had Trump fave until the debate where odds have now flipped (now Harris 1.83/Trump 2.0). Check out the election maps on Youtube and its quite fascinating understanding all the local nuances (Nebraska and Maine different electoral voting system that Republcans are trying to change as they get the majority of votes for these states but want ALL), and even the electoral system itself favouring Republicans massively as Dems will definitely have MILLIONS more in the popular vote but the electoral college favours smaller states (disproportionate amt of electoral votes relative to popn). Basically Pennsylvania and Georgia are totally key (along with smaller swing states). The scary thing is Republicans have taken control of what should be impartial electoral office in Georgia and they have already said both 2020 was corrupt AND they may refuse to certify a Democrat victory in November if they think there is electoral fraud.
FFS, this Republican party under Trump is a bunch of ****** CROOKS. Not sure how ANY SANE person can condone the shit they are doing
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-08/georgia-could-prove-to-be-more-of-an-electoral/104326154
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They’re eating their own now.
MTG and Loomer.
lol .. they're both campaigners
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Seriously, the bloke is like a souffle, looks good but very little substance.
Should be called “Mr Flip Flop”.
The one I did note with the debate is Kamala wrote notes during the debate (like a prosecutor would in a trial) so she could raise points against him whilst Trump just stood there.
I still struggle with Trump saying that pets were being eaten in Springfield.
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The reason is simple. During the primaries he attacked Nicky Haley, a moderate candidate so hard that he couldnt resist attacking the base and even telling them to get out of the republican party, they are not wanted. Since that time 200 ex republican politicians have endorsed Harris.
There is also going to be a huge element of the republican party that decide they cant be bothered standing in line all day and cant be bothered. There will also be the element of people that go but when it comes time to tick Trump, they end up ticking neither.
So this is where I got the maths from
72m voters if equal with 2020.
48m votes if he loses a third of that vote due to his anti moderate rhetoric.
add 12m votes to account for new voters, those who decide to vote anyway and a margin of error.
Projection probably about 60m votes total. This total wont win him the swing states. Democrat voters will come out en mass to keep Trump out of the white house. Even if they dont come out with the numbers we saw in 2020 Trump and the republicans have only ever managed to score over 60m votes 4 times in their history, only once over 65m votes. The democrats have scored over 65m votes in the last 3 elections alone, with 80m votes scored last time.
So if you assume the democrats have a natural 10% drop off of voters since last time the projection still easily hits 70m.
Trump will need to be as close as possible to his highest voter turnout in history to win the election. Somewhere around 68-70m should get him over the line if the democrats have a drop in voter turn out from the last election which is possible with Harris having to carry the burden of Bidens 4 year presidential record into the election.
My projection for Trump is he is merely going to be around 60m at absolute best.
The swing states are the key. There is no way on gods green earth that Trump won any new voters preaching to his base in the debate. Harris only has a minor lead I agree. But It will blow out as the election gets near.
With the way USA politics work how democrats tend to own the cities and republicans own rural and semi rural townships, my suspicion is some polls are concentrating their data collection in prime republican land to appease Trump and make this election seem closer than it is.
Another interesting point I believe is Harris is getting the Julia Gillard treatment. Where merely because she is a women, men and women will not even give her the time of day and are even saying stuff about her you would never hear said about a man. Including that she should be in a brothel.
They’re eating their own now.
MTG and Loomer.
There is a civil war in the republican party. Which is no surprise considering its currently the party of greed and corruption. Got to remember, Trump offers favors of cushy jobs and high paying positions and career advancement to get what he wants. MTG, Loomer, Gaetz and a few others have all got on their Knees, gone gagging deep to please Don to score these roles.
So its an all out war to see who gets the positions if Trump is elected. Like it couldnt be more dumb. Because we all know he will give all the plum positions to his kids and his friends.
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