Opinion INTERNATIONAL Politics: Adelaide Board Discussion Part 5

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This election has really livened up. Hopefully we start getting debates. I feel the republican strategists are shutting the debates down though because they want to avoid questions that will make them look bad. Which in turn will lose them votes.

But again, the real issue isnt losing votes, its where will they gain votes from?

He can preach to his base all he likes. That wont win him more votes. He has alienated a lot of republican voters from the moderate arm through his attacks on Haley and Romney etc. They may not vote for Harris but what if they did? Besides that Trump needs to get more votes. MAGA is not the majority of voters. The maths tells you this.

Trump got 74m votes last time but still lost to the democrats by 8m votes.

Since that time he has alienated a third of his party, leaving him an estimated 48m - 50m voters. 62 milion votes got him the election in 2016. Romney got 60m alone in 2012. In the last 3 elections, the democrats have had at least 65m votes with 82m ensuring Trump didnt win office in 2020.

So the big question is where is Trump going to find those extra 20m votes to be competitive against Harris?

Harris is surging in the polls, she is on the campaign trail with her VP getting their message out there and inviting Trump to debate. There is 12 weeks until the election. Trump appears to be sinking. Even Fox news has kind of lost their way with him.

Trump MAGA supporters will come out in droves to vote, no doubt in my mind. But his lack of appeal will mean he wont get swing voters and new voters to replace the votes he has lost. Not to mention the air of meh which in turn some MAGA supporters may not be bothered standing in line for 8 hours. Which could mean Trump could be headed for a historically low vote, if he cracks 50m voters I think he has done really well considering.

Harris is moving all the chess pieces in the right direction. Her message is clear and concise. She has won back a majority of voters that Biden lost. She did that in days which shocked the republicans I think. She will win the womens vote on the back of Roe V Wade and will likely win the black vote. Her downfall will be illegals. She was in charge of the borders and she shit the bed. I think this will no doubt cost her votes but from the Americans I know, they are just not even going to bother voting this election. So this could mean Trump wont get the benefit he thought he would. Plus its going to be hard to argue illegals without coming across racist in debates and to over power womens rights and abortion issues.

History tells you at this stage Harris is doing everything right towards winning an election. The republicans who had the momentum against Biden now seem to have lost it. It would be awfully hard to get back unless Harris starts trainwrecking interviews. She is a seasoned prosecutor though and politician who is well trained in what to say and when not to say it. Trump just expects to say what he wants when he wants and his supporters will back him.
 

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He can’t win ….. honestly.





No he wont win. I think this is looking at extremes. Basically anyone who doesnt authorise the votes is basically putting themselves, their family and friends at risk of reprisal. Weve seen bloody riots over BLM and Jan 6. Its not too hard to imagine just what would happen to any state that tried to be clever.

Plus, I think youd see the world walk away from Trump as president. This would mean the states becomes an ally overnight with China, Russia and North Korea. The negatives far outway any positives of Trump winning through back room deals. It would be suicide. Not to mention corporate businesses will walk away from the USA and move over seas.

This is why I dont think it will happen. If Trump loses the election he will have a tantrum but by Dec he will have disappeared back to a golf course somewhere.

It wouldnt suprise me if Trump is squirreling away money to leave the USA as soon as the election is over. It also wouldnt surprise me if he isnt interested in being president. He is merely using this time to rake in as much coin as he can muster.
 

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Opinion INTERNATIONAL Politics: Adelaide Board Discussion Part 5

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